scholarly journals Analisis Jaringan Saraf Dalam Estimasi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Penduduk Sumatera Utara

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juli Wahyuni ◽  
Yuri Widya Paranthy ◽  
Anjar Wanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Learning Rate ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
North Sumatra

Abstrak — Pengangguran merupakan salah satu masalah ekonomi yang mempengaruhi kehidupan manusia secara langsung. Di Indonesia tingkat persentase pengangguran cukup tinggi, khususnya pada provinsi Sumatera Utara. Contohnya tercatat pada tahun 2010, kota sibolga memilik tingkat pengangguran yang paling tinggi yaitu berada di angka 17.50% dari total penduduknya. Berbeda dengan Samosir yang hanya memilik 0.55% pengangguran dari total penduduknya. Untuk dapat mengurangi jumlah pengangguran, khususnya di Sumatera Utara maka perlu dilakukan estimasi tingkat pengangguran untuk tahun-tahun mendatang, agar pemerintah memiliki acuan dalam menentukan kebijakan sehingga dapat melakukan penanggulangan terhadap jumlah pengangguran. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini terfokus pada data tingkat pengangguran terbuka penduduk umur 15 tahun keatas dari tahun 2010-2015 di Sumatera Utara. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu Jaringan Saraf Tiruan Backpropagation. Analisa data dilakukan dengan algoritma backpropagation menggunakan Matlab. Arsitektur jaringan yang digunakan ada 5 model (4-55-1, 4-57-1, 4-59-1, 4-61-1 dan 4-77-1), dengan model yang terbaik adalah 4-55-1 dengan Learning Rate yang digunakan 0.01. Sehingga menghasilkan tingkat akurasi 88% dengan nilai Mean Squared Error (MSE) adalah 0,55701127.Kata kunci— Pengangguran, Estimasi, Penduduk, Jaringan Saraf, Sumatera Utara.Abstract — Unemployment is one of the economic problems that affect human life directly. In Indonesia the level of unemployment is quite high, especially in North Sumatra province. For example, recorded in 2010, sibolga city has the highest unemployment rate that is at 17.50% of the total population. In contrast to Samosir who only have 0.55% unemployment out of the total population. In order to reduce the number of unemployment, especially in North Sumatra, it is necessary to estimate the unemployment rate for the coming years, so that the government has a reference in determining the policy so that it can handle the number of unemployed. The data used in this study focuses on open unemployment rate data of the population aged 15 years and over from 2010-2015 in North Sumatra. The method used in this research is Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation. Data analysis is done by backpropagation algorithm using Matlab. Network architecture used there are 5 models (4-55-1, 4-57-1, 4-59-1, 4-61-1 and 4-77-1), with the best model is 4-55-1 with Learning Rate used 0.01. So as to produce an accuracy of 88% with the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is 0.55701127.Keywords— Unemployment, Estimation, Population, Neural Network, North Sumatera.

scholarly journals Penerapan Jaringan Saraf Tiruan Dalam Memprediksi Indikator Utama Ekonomi Dunia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 169
Author(s):  
Alan Boy Sandy Damanik ◽  
Agung Bimantoro
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The World ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Method ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Architectural Models ◽  
The Mean

Economics is one of the most important aspects in the world. Economics greatly determines the progress and development of a country. However, there are still many countries with low economic levels. Therefore the aim of this study is to predict and determine the level of the main indicators of the world economy as one of the anticipatory steps to further increase the level of the country's economy. World Economic Indicator Data to be used is sourced from Bloomberg and Bank Indonesia. To find out further developments, it is necessary to research the existing data. The algorithm used is Backpropagatian Neural Network. Data analysis was carried out using artificial neural network method using Matlab R2011b software. The study uses 5 architectural models. The best network architecture produced is 3-43-1 with an accuracy rate of 86% and the Mean Squared Error (MSE) value is 1.336593.

Predicting The Number of Tourists Based on Backpropagation Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 439-445
Author(s):  
Dwi Marlina ◽  
Fatchul Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Training Process ◽  
Backpropagation Algorithm ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Target Data

The number of tourists always fluctuates every month, as happened in Kaliadem Merapi, Sleman. The purpose of this research is to develop a prediction system for the number of tourists based on artificial neural networks. This study uses an artificial neural network for data processing methods with the backpropagation algorithm. This study carried out two processes, namely the training process and the testing process with stages consisting of: (1) Collecting input and target data, (2) Normalizing input and target data, (3) Creating artificial neural network architecture by utilizing GUI (Graphical User Interface) Matlab facilities. (4) Conducting training and testing processes, (5) Normalizing predictive data, (6) Analysis of predictive data. In the data analysis, the MSE (Mean Squared Error) value in the training process is 0.0091528 and in the testing process is 0.0051424. Besides, the validity value of predictive accuracy in the testing process is around 91.32%. The resulting MSE (Mean Squared Error) value is relatively small, and the validity value of prediction accuracy is relatively high, so this system can be used to predict the number of tourists in Kaliadem Merapi, Sleman.  

scholarly journals Penerapan Algoritma Backpropagation dalam Memprediksi Persentase Penduduk Buta Huruf di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imelda Asih Rohani Simbolon ◽  
Fikri Yatussa’ada ◽  
Anjar Wanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Central Bureau ◽  
Network Data ◽  
Backpropagation Neural Network ◽  
Matlab Software ◽  
Squared Error

Illiteracy is one of the most serious issues in Indonesia. The government's ignorance of illiterate people makes the illiteracy rate quite high. It should be one of the government's targets for reducing illiteracy in order to reduce the number of illiterate people. Illiteracy rate in Indonesia itself has reached 34.55% in Papua province. One way to suppress illiteracy rate in Indonesia is by predicting illiterate figures for subsequent years. The data to be predicted is the data of illiterate figures of each province in Indonesia which is sourced from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics from 2011 to 2017. The method used in the prediction is Backpropagation Neural Network. Data analysis was done with the help of matlab software R2011b (7.13). This study uses 5 architectures, 4-5-1, 4-6-1, 4-9-1, 4-14-1 and 4-18-1. From these 5 models the best network architecture is 4-14-1 with 91% accuracy and Mean Squared Error 0,00274166.

Analyzing the Impact of Learning Rate in development of the Prediction Model using Artificial Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 121-135
Author(s):  
Anil Kumar Bisht ◽  
◽  
Ravendra Singh ◽  
Rakesh Bhutiani ◽  
Ashutosh Bhatt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Learning Rate ◽  
Ganges River ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
The Impact

Water Quality (WQ) modeling and forecasting are very challenging for water management bodies due to the complex and nonlinear relationship between the parameters responsible for determining water quality. The main focus of this paper is the water quality prediction of the Ganges River by analyzing the impact of one of the critical configuration parameters of a neural network known as the learning rate. The proposed prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) consists of different sets of experiments performed by comparing twelve different training functions against the variation in learning rates. A total of 360 experiments have been conducted on the dataset collected over the period 2001 to 2015 with five stations along the Ganges River in the state of Uttarakhand, India. All experiments have been conducted in MATLAB software. The ANN-based program is written in Matlab’s NN-Toolbox. As input parameters, we have used temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and total coliform. The water quality standard set by the Central Pollution Control Board of India has been used. The performance of the developed model has been calculated based on Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Trail training function-based artificial neural network models indicate higher predictive accuracy when compared to other models developed using the remaining eleven training functions when the learning rate is set to 0.04. In conclusion, ANN has the ability to efficiently predict the water quality of rivers and the learning rate has a greater impact on the development of such predictive models. So, it is required to be tuned very carefully.

scholarly journals Prediksi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Menggunakan Algoritma Neural Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Imam Halimi ◽  
Wahyu Andhyka Kusuma
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
T Test ◽  
Sliding Windows ◽  
Root Mean Squared Error ◽  
Squared Error

Investasi saham merupakan hal yang tidak asing didengar maupun dilakukan. Ada berbagai macam saham di Indonesia, salah satunya adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) atau dalam bahasa inggris disebut Indonesia Composite Index, ICI, atau IDX Composite. IHSG merupakan parameter penting yang dipertimbangkan pada saat akan melakukan investasi mengingat IHSG adalah saham gabungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi pergerakan IHSG dengan teknik data mining menggunakan algoritma neural network dan dibandingkan dengan algoritma linear regression, yang dapat dijadikan acuan investor saat akan melakukan investasi. Hasil dari penelitian ini berupa nilai Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) serta label tambahan angka hasil prediksi yang didapatkan setelah dilakukan validasi menggunakan sliding windows validation dengan hasil paling baik yaitu pada pengujian yang menggunakan algoritma neural network yang menggunakan windowing yaitu sebesar 37,786 dan pada pengujian yang tidak menggunakan windowing sebesar 13,597 dan untuk pengujian algoritma linear regression yang menggunakan windowing yaitu sebesar 35,026 dan pengujian yang tidak menggunakan windowing sebesar 12,657. Setelah dilakukan pengujian T-Test menunjukan bahwa pengujian menggunakan neural network yang dibandingkan dengan linear regression memiliki hasil yang tidak signifikan dengan nilai T-Test untuk pengujian dengan windowing dan tanpa windowing hasilnya sama, yaitu sebesar 1,000.

scholarly journals Forecasting Wind Power Generation Using Artificial Neural Network: “Pawan Danawi”—A Case Study from Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Amila T. Peiris ◽  
Jeevani Jayasinghe ◽  
Upaka Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Wind Power Generation ◽  
Training Algorithms ◽  
Training Algorithm ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Ann Models

Wind power, as a renewable energy resource, has taken much attention of the energy authorities in many countries, as it is used as one of the major energy sources to satisfy the ever-increasing energy demand. However, careful attention is needed in identifying the wind power potential in a particular area due to climate changes. In this sense, forecasting both wind power generation and wind power potential is essential. This paper develops artificial neural network (ANN) models to forecast wind power generation in “Pawan Danawi”, a functioning wind farm in Sri Lanka. Wind speed, wind direction, and ambient temperature of the area were used as the independent variable matrices of the developed ANN models, while the generated wind power was used as the dependent variable. The models were tested with three training algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG), and Bayesian Regularization (BR) training algorithms. In addition, the model was calibrated for five validation percentages (5% to 25% in 5% intervals) under each algorithm to identify the best training algorithm with the most suitable training and validation percentages. Mean squared error (MSE), coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error ratio (RSR), Nash number, and BIAS were used to evaluate the performance of the developed ANN models. Results revealed that all three training algorithms produce acceptable predictions for the power generation in the Pawan Danawi wind farm with R > 0.91, MSE < 0.22, and BIAS < 1. Among them, the LM training algorithm at 70% of training and 5% of validation percentages produces the best forecasting results. The developed models can be effectively used in the prediction of wind power at the Pawan Danawi wind farm. In addition, the models can be used with the projected climatic scenarios in predicting the future wind power harvest. Furthermore, the models can acceptably be used in similar environmental and climatic conditions to identify the wind power potential of the area.

scholarly journals Real-time diameter of the fetal aorta from ultrasound

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 6735-6744
Author(s):  
Nicoló Savioli ◽  
Enrico Grisan ◽  
Silvia Visentin ◽  
Erich Cosmi ◽  
Giovanni Montana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Ultrasound Images ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Execution Speed ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Temporal Redundancy ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

AbstractThe automatic analysis of ultrasound sequences can substantially improve the efficiency of clinical diagnosis. This article presents an attempt to automate the challenging task of measuring the vascular diameter of the fetal abdominal aorta from ultrasound images. We propose a neural network architecture consisting of three blocks: a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the extraction of imaging features, a convolution gated recurrent unit (C-GRU) for exploiting the temporal redundancy of the signal, and a regularized loss function, called CyclicLoss, to impose our prior knowledge about the periodicity of the observed signal. The solution is investigated with a cohort of 25 ultrasound sequences acquired during the third-trimester pregnancy check, and with 1000 synthetic sequences. In the extraction of features, it is shown that a shallow CNN outperforms two other deep CNNs with both the real and synthetic cohorts, suggesting that echocardiographic features are optimally captured by a reduced number of CNN layers. The proposed architecture, working with the shallow CNN, reaches an accuracy substantially superior to previously reported methods, providing an average reduction of the mean squared error from 0.31 (state-of-the-art) to 0.09 $$\mathrm{mm}^2$$mm2, and a relative error reduction from 8.1 to 5.3%. The mean execution speed of the proposed approach of 289 frames per second makes it suitable for real-time clinical use.

Identification of Complex System Based on Neural Network

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 4342-4347
Author(s):  
Zhen Hai Dou ◽  
Ya Jing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Complex System ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Mathematics Model ◽  
Identification Method ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Actual Output

In order to conquer the difficulty of building up the mathematics model of some complex system, model identification method based on neural network is put forward. By this method, according to actual sample datum, the complex model of crude oil heating furnace is identified at appropriate quantity of net layers and notes. The identification results show that output of model can basically consistent with the actual output and their mean squared error (MSE) almost is 0. Therefore, model identification method based on neural network is an effective method in complex system identification.

scholarly journals Novel FTLRNN with Gamma Memory for Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions of Chaotic Time Series

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Sanjay L. Badjate ◽  
Sanjay V. Dudul
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Chaotic Time Series ◽  
Nonstationary Time Series ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Wide Range

Multistep ahead prediction of a chaotic time series is a difficult task that has attracted increasing interest in the recent years. The interest in this work is the development of nonlinear neural network models for the purpose of building multistep chaotic time series prediction. In the literature there is a wide range of different approaches but their success depends on the predicting performance of the individual methods. Also the most popular neural models are based on the statistical and traditional feed forward neural networks. But it is seen that this kind of neural model may present some disadvantages when long-term prediction is required. In this paper focused time-lagged recurrent neural network (FTLRNN) model with gamma memory is developed for different prediction horizons. It is observed that this predictor performs remarkably well for short-term predictions as well as medium-term predictions. For coupled partial differential equations generated chaotic time series such as Mackey Glass and Duffing, FTLRNN-based predictor performs consistently well for different depths of predictions ranging from short term to long term, with only slight deterioration after k is increased beyond 50. For real-world highly complex and nonstationary time series like Sunspots and Laser, though the proposed predictor does perform reasonably for short term and medium-term predictions, its prediction ability drops for long term ahead prediction. However, still this is the best possible prediction results considering the facts that these are nonstationary time series. As a matter of fact, no other NN configuration can match the performance of FTLRNN model. The authors experimented the performance of this FTLRNN model on predicting the dynamic behavior of typical Chaotic Mackey-Glass time series, Duffing time series, and two real-time chaotic time series such as monthly sunspots and laser. Static multi layer perceptron (MLP) model is also attempted and compared against the proposed model on the performance measures like mean squared error (MSE), Normalized mean squared error (NMSE), and Correlation Coefficient (r). The standard back-propagation algorithm with momentum term has been used for both the models.

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