scholarly journals Limited resources or limited luck? Why people perceive an illusory negative correlation between the outcomes of choice options despite unequivocal evidence for independence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Marciano ◽  
Eden Krispin ◽  
Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde ◽  
Leon Deouell

When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.

2014 ◽  
Vol 657 ◽  
pp. 392-396
Author(s):  
Adela Ursanu Dragoş ◽  
Sergiu Stanciu ◽  
Nicanor Cimpoeşu ◽  
Mihai Dumitru ◽  
Ciprian Paraschiv

Entire or partial loss of function in the shoulder, elbow or wrist represent an increasingly common ailment connected to a wide range of injuries or other conditions including sports, occupational, spinal cord injuries or strokes. A general treatment of these problems relies on physiotherapy procedures. An increasing number of metallic materials are continuously being developed to expect the requirements for different engineering applications including biomedical field. Few constructive models that can involve intelligent materials are analyzed to establish the advantages in usage of shape memory elements mechanical implementation. The shape memory effect, superelasticity and damping capacity are unique characteristics at metallic alloys which demand careful consideration in both design and manufacturing processes. The actual rehabilitation systems can be improved using smart elements in motorized equipments like robotic systems. Shape memory alloys, especially NiTi (nitinol), represent a very good alternative for actuation in equipments with moving dispositive based on very good actuation properties, low mass, small size, safety and user friendliness. In this article the actuation and the force characteristics were analyzed to investigate a relationship between the bending angle and the actuation real value.


Author(s):  
Amer Alomarah ◽  
Syed Masood ◽  
Dong Ruan

Abstract This paper reports a structural modification of an auxetic metamaterial with a combination of representative re-entrant and chiral topologies, namely, a re-entrant chiral auxetic (RCA). The main driving force for the structural modification was to overcome the undesirable properties of the RCA metamaterial such as anisotropic mechanical response under uniaxial compression. Additively manufactured polyamide 12 specimens via Multi Jet Fusion (MJF) were quasi-statically compressed along the two in-plane directions. The experimental results confirmed that the modified structure was less sensitive to the loading direction and the deformation was more uniform. Moreover, similar energy absorptions were obtained when the modified metamaterial was crushed along the two in-plane directions. The energy absorptions were improved from 390 to 950 kJ/m³ and from 500 to 1000 kJ/m³ compared with the RCA when they were crushed along the X and Y directions, respectively. The absorbed energy per unit mass (SEA) also improved from 1.4 to 2.9 J/g and from 1.78 to 3.1 J/g compared with that of the RCA under the axial compression along the X and Y directions. Furthermore, parametric studies were performed and the effects of geometric parameters of the modified metamaterial were numerically investigated. Tuneable auxetic feature was obtained. The energy absorption and Poisson’s ratio of the modified metamaterial offer it a good alternative for a wide range of potential applications in the areas such as aerospace, automotive, and human protective equipment.


Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Gholam-Abbas Shirali ◽  
Arman Amiri ◽  
Khalil Taherzadeh Chanani ◽  
Maryam Silavi ◽  
Sanaz Mohipoor ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has created a wide range of sociocultural pressures on nurses. Resilience is defined as one’s ability to adapt to an unpredictable situation and it can be a factor in accepting an undesirable psychosocial situation. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to examine resilience in nurses in the face of job stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The study was carried out as a case-control study with participation of 400 nurses as the target group (nurses exposed to COVID-19 patients) and the control group (nurses not exposed to COVID-19 patients). To examine resilience and job stress, Conor and Davidson’s questionnaire and OSIPOW questionnaire were used respectively. RESULTS: The mean scores of job stress and resilience were significantly different between the target and control groups (p <  0.05). So that resilience in the target group was less than that in the control group. In addition, job stress in the target group was higher than that of the control group (p <  0.05). There was a significant and negative correlation between resilience and job stress and the correlation was stronger in the target group (p <  0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Given the high job stress score in the participants and its negative correlation with resilience, there is need to provide the health personnel with efficient preventive and treatment approaches, improve and educate the principles of resilience, improve mental health services system, and introduce programs to control some of demographical factors in job stress such as physical activity, and employment status of nurses.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 696-706
Author(s):  
Fernando E. Viteri ◽  
Jorge Alvarado

The creatinine height index (CHI), which consists of the following ratio: CHI: 24 hour creatinine excretion of subject 24 hour creatinine excretion of normal child of same height has been devised for estimating the relative muscle mass of children. Age is not considered because children of developing areas are very often retarded in height. The normal CHI is close to 1.0, both in well nourished children and in fully recovered malnourished ones, with heights ranging from 64.8 to 135 cm. Protein calorie malnourished (PCM) children of the edematous type (kwashiorkor and kwashiorkormarasmus) had CHI's ranging from 0.25 to 0.75, lower CHI's were observed in more severely malnourished children and vice versa. In clinically marasmic children (PCM without edema) the CHI ranged from 0.33 to 0.85, independent of the degree of weight deficit or the clinical severity of marasmus, indicating that severe caloric deficiency can occur with a wide range of muscle wasting. No creatinine retention was observed in any PCM children with adequate urine flows. Independent estimates of protein and calorie repletion were obtained during recovery by the use of CHI and weight for height. A significant negative correlation between CHI and N retention was found, indicating the physiological significance of the CHI in estimating protein nutrition.


1997 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Evans

The economic logic of the current international economy does not predict the “eclipse of the state”. Economic globalization does restrict state power, but transnational capital needs capable states as much or more than does domestically oriented business. National success in the current global political economy has been associated not with minimal states but with states that are capable, active, and engaged. Pressure for eclipse flows from the conjunction between transnational economic forces and the political hegemony of an Anglo-American ideology that, in J. P. Nettl's words, “simply leaves no room for any valid notion of the state”. Even this combination of economic and political pressure is unlikely to eclipse the state, but it is likely to put public institutions on the defensive, eclipsing any possibility of the “embedded liberalism” described by John Ruggie. A “leaner, meaner” state is the likely outcome. The possibility of a more progressive alternative outcome would depend in part on whether current zero-sum visions of the relation between the state and civil society can be replaced by a more synergistic view.


Author(s):  
Evelyn Welch

In 1535, the Venetian patrician Francesco Priuli began a new account book for his household's daily expenditure. Despite his elevated standing, he kept it in his own hand, noting with precision how his money was spent, where, when, and on what. There are a number of things to note about this patrician family's behaviour. One is that a major mercantile city such as Venice already offered a wide range of shopping spaces and opportunities in the early sixteenth century (and had for many years). Also, forms of payment varied and could take place long after the goods had been transferred. Moreover, Priuli's purchases (and his occasional sales) make it clear that Venice's large second-hand markets provided economic security. This article focuses on sites of consumption in early modern Europe, first considering the moral aspects of the division of labour and then discussing the spectacles of consumption. It also examines credit, the sites of bargaining and exchange of material goods, and activities such as lotteries, second-hand dealers, pawnbrokers, and auctions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Sharma ◽  
Anuradha R Chetiya

The success of a Six Sigma programme in an organization depends to a large extent on the success of the Six Sigma projects, which in turn depends on how the team handles the problem and whether the right combination of tools is being applied to address the root cause. The Six Sigma toolbox consists of a wide range of tools comprising, on the one hand, simple and commonly used tools like flow charts, Pareto analysis, and cause-and-effect diagram and the more advanced statistical tools like design of experiments, regression analysis and many more, on the other hand. While the simple tools are easy to apply, understand, and analyse, engineers perceive the more advanced tools difficult to comprehend. Design of experiments (DOE) is one such tool. Two well-known approaches of design of experiments are the Classical DOE, pioneered by Sir Ronald A Fisher and the Taguchi approach, pioneered by Dr Genichii Taguchi. A third approach to experimental design—the Shainin DOE techniques, offered by Dr Dorian Shainin—can be considered as a very good alternative to the other approaches. They are much simpler than the factorial designs, response surface designs, and orthogonal arrays of the conventional approaches of DOE, but at the same time are recognized as being very powerful and effective in solving the chronic quality problems that plague most manufacturers. Shainin DOE basically works at eliminating suspected process variables by mostly using seven different tools, viz., Multi-Vari Charts Component Search Paired Comparison Variable Search Full Factorials B vs. C (Better vs. Current) Analysis Scatter Plots or Realistic Tolerance Parallelogram Plots. Though not very well documented, these tools have proved to be the key drivers in the success of many companies, e.g., Motorola. This article examines two projects of a leading automotive and general lighting lamp manufacturing company, in which a combination of the standard Six Sigma tools and Shainin tools has been successfully used to address the root cause of the problems. The advantage of using Shainin tools is that: Very small sample sizes are required to analyse the problem. Often samples as small as 2 or 3 are enough to make statistically valid conclusions. Statistical software is not required to analyse the data. In fact, Shainin DOE does not even require knowledge of complex statistical tools. It involves employees at all levels, including workers and junior staff in problem solving that was hitherto a domain of senior technical experts. Also, the success of the projects had a very positive effect on the morale of the employees in terms of convincing them that Six Sigma is not all about using complex statistical tools.


2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niclas Abrahamsson

Research has consistently shown there is a negative correlation between age of onset (AO) of acquisition and ultimate attainment (UA) of either pronunciation or grammar in a second language (L2). A few studies have indeed reported nativelike behavior in some postpuberty learners with respect to either phonetics/phonology or morphosyntax, a result that has sometimes been taken as evidence against the critical period hypothesis (CPH). However, in the few studies that have employed a wide range of linguistic tests and tasks, adult learners have not exhibited nativelike L2 proficiency across the board of measures, which, according to some, suggests that the hypothesis still holds. The present study investigated the relationship between AO and UA and the incidence of nativelikeness when measures of phonetic and grammatical intuition are combined. An additional aim was to investigate whether children and adults develop the L2 through fundamentally different brain mechanisms—namely, whether children acquire the language (more) implicitly as an interdependent whole, whereas adults learn it (more) explicitly as independent parts of a whole.


Author(s):  
Scott Richardson ◽  
Jordan Auvinen ◽  
Brennan Bonnett ◽  
Lucas Takeuchi ◽  
Erin Thompson

Purpose/Hypothesis: Students in graduate level DPT programs function at varying levels. Some students thrive and others struggle to maintain required minimum levels of academic performance. When considering admission of applicants, and when assisting enrolled students, consideration of factors contributing to academic success is of interest. Stress has been shown to be prevalent in a wide range of students and has many negative effects including poor life satisfaction, increased clinical burnout, and reduced academic performance. Research has shown a correlation between higher emotional intelligence (EI) and decreased stress levels in medical, nursing, and undergraduate students. The purpose of this study was to examine if emotional intelligence (EI) and/or extrovert bias correlates with perceived stress levels in Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) students. It was hypothesized that students with higher emotional intelligence and more extroverted personalities would experience lower levels of perceived stress. Participants: After providing consent, a convenience sample of 60 first and second year DPT students (33 female) with age range 23 to 38 participated in the current study. Participation was voluntary and 60 of a possible 72 students chose to participate. Materials/Methods: After obtaining informed consent, participants completed Goldberg’s IPIP-Neo questionnaire (extraversion), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and Assessing Emotions Scale (emotional intelligence). Each of these tools have demonstrated validity and reliability for the respective areas measured. Surveys were administered to students and results were analyzed for possible relationships between extraversion and stress levels as well as EI and stress levels using a Spearman Correlation test. Results: Spearman Correlation analyses were conducted with a significant negative correlation between EI and perceived stress rs = -0.291, p= 0.026 and a non-significant negative correlation between extraversion and perceived stress rs = -1.36, p= 0.305. Discussion: In the current sample, EI had a significant negative relationship with perceived stress levels, with higher EI scores correlating to lower levels of stress. The relationship between extraversion and perceived stress was non-significant. Clinical Relevance: Doctorate level graduate programs can be considered intense and very stressful. Admission of qualified students equipped to meet the demands of a DPT program has great importance. Establishing a correlation between EI, introversion/extraversion bias, and stress may help DPT programs further assess prospective students. Consideration of factors correlated with higher perceived stress may be useful when providing resources to admitted students to facilitate academic success.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akash Tariq ◽  
Muhammad Adnan ◽  
Naser M. AbdElsalam ◽  
Hassan Fouad ◽  
Kamran Hussain ◽  
...  

Pakistani Himalaya stretches over a wide range of altitudinal gradients and supports high diversity of medicinal plants that are an important source for rural livelihood. Altitudinal effects on ground vegetation have already been indicated but ground vegetation is also under severe threat of grazing and over collection. The present study investigated the effect of altitude on medicinal plants abundance in both old-growth and derived woodland forests. Each of the five line transects was selected in old-growth and derived woodland forests. Each line transect consisted of four plots distributed at four altitudinal levels (2200, 2300, 2400, and 2500 m asl). Species richness under derived woodland had shown strong negative correlation (r=-0.95) with altitude while it was found to be nonsignificant under old-growth. Cover of most of the species such asVeronica laxa(r=-0.95,P≤0.05) had shown significant negative correlation with altitude under derived woodland. Cover abundance of some species likeValeriana jatamansiand Violacanescenshas also shown significant negative correlation under old-growth forest. Derived woodland can decrease the cover abundance of valuable medicinal plants towards extension at higher altitudes. Thus, protection of the derived woodland could serve as a tool for the improvement of rural livelihood and ecological restoration.


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