scholarly journals Forecasting of Poverty Data Using Seasonal ARIMA Modeling in West Java Province

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Desri Kristina Silalahi
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Seasonal Effect ◽  
Poor People ◽  
West Java ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
The Government

The government continues to carry out poverty reduction strategies in Indonesia, especially in West Java Province. West Java Province is a province that has the most populous population in Indonesia. This will affect the level of welfare and the amount of poverty. The strategy undertaken is inseparable from accurate poverty data and is available from year to year. Even from the available data, the government can forecast the number of poor people in the coming years. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is one of forecasting methods. SARIMA is the development of the ARIMA model which has a seasonal effect. Based on the results of the study, that poverty data forecasting in the province of West Java using the SARIMA method obtained SARIMA model (0,1,1) (1,1,1)4. This model is the best model for forecasting data with an R-Squared value of 98%, Mean Square Error is 7.705.5800.000 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error IS 2,81%. It’s means this SARIMA model is very good in predicting poverty data in West Java Province.

scholarly journals Aplikasi Triple Exponential Smoothing Untuk Forecasting Jumlah Penduduk Miskin

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
Padrul Jana
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
The Government

This study aims to predict the number of poor in Indonesia for the next few years using a triple exponential smoothing method.The purpose of this research is the result of the forecast number of poor people in Indonesia accurate forecast results are used as an alternative data the government for consideration of government to determine the direction of national poverty reduction policies. This research includes the study of literature research, by applying the theory of forecasting to generate predictions of poor people for coming year. Furthermore, analyzing the mistakes of the methods used in terms of the count: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). The function of this error analysis is to measure the accuracy of forecasting results that have been conducted.These results indicate that the number of poor people in 2017 amounted to 24,741,871 inhabitants, in 2018 amounted to 24,702,928 inhabitants, in 2019 amounted to 24,638,022 inhabitants and in 2020 amounted to 24,547,155 people. The forecasting results show an average reduction in the number of poor people in Indonesia last five years (2016-2020 years) ranges from 0.16 million. Analysis forecasting model obtained an mean absolute deviation (MAD) obtained by 0.246047. Mean squared error (MSE) of forecasting results with the original data by 1.693277. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.040307% and the final Mean percentage error (MPE) of 0.888134%.Kata Kunci: Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing

scholarly journals POOR AND PLANTATION COMMODITIES DISTRIBUTION INFORMATION SYSTEM TO POVERTY REDUCTION IN WEST JAVA PROVINCE

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (02) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Irawan Afrianto
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
System Development ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Poor People ◽  
User Centered Design ◽  
West Java ◽  
The Government ◽  
Poor Communities

The number of poverty in West Java Province reaching 4.23 million / 9.18%, is a matter of special concern for the government of West Java Province to perform the actions and activities of poverty reduction. Meanwhile, West Java with 26 districts / cities has a huge plantation potential, there are 493,118 hectares of plantations in West Java with 33 plantation Commodities therein. This led to a desire to collaborate on poverty data and potential plantation data in order to reduce the poverty rate. Geographic information system (GIS) which contains data and distribution of poor communities and plantations developed to map the areas that have poor communities and the potential of plantations in the area. This is intended to facilitate the provision of assistance from the Plantation Office for poor communities around the plantation. The system development method used is UCD (User Centered Design) so that it can focus on the needs of data and information needed. The use of maps with the google maps API provides ease in presenting regional spatial data to show poverty data as well as plantation potential. The existence of mapping system of distribution of poor people and plantation potency hence information of location of poor society and potency of plantation in West Java can be raised in one information intact to facilitate in informing of poor society that domicile around plantation.

Towards optimal ATM cash replenishment using time series analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafi ◽  
Mohammad Taha Wahab ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Khan ◽  
Hani Raza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Automatic Teller Machine ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Specific Amount

Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) are still largely used to dispense cash to the customers. ATM cash replenishment is a process of refilling ATM machine with a specific amount of cash. Due to vacillating users demands and seasonal patterns, it is a very challenging problem for the financial institutions to keep the optimal amount of cash for each ATM. In this paper, we present a time series model based on Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique called Time Series ARIMA Model for ATM (TASM4ATM). This study used ATM back-end refilling historical data from 6 different financial organizations in Pakistan. There are 2040 distinct ATMs and 18 month of replenishment data from these ATMs are used to train the proposed model. The model is compared with the state-of- the-art models like Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Amazon’s DeepAR model. Two approaches are used for forecasting (i) Single ATM and (ii) clusters of ATMs (In which ATMs are clustered with similar cash-demands). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) are used to evaluate the models. The suggested model produces far better forecasting as compared to the models in comparison and produced an average of 7.86/7.99 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on individual ATMs and average of 6.57/6.64 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on clusters of ATMs.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Sebagai Model Peramalan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-80
Author(s):  
Roro Kushartanti ◽  
Maulina Latifah
Keyword(s):  
Community Health ◽  
Health Center ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Community Health Center ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Forecasting Method

ARIMA is a forecasting method time series that does not require a specific data pattern. This study aims to analyze the forecasting of Semarang City DHF cases specifically in the Rowosari Community Health Center. The study used monthly data on DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in 2016, 2017, and 2019 as many as 36 dengue case data. The best ARIMA model for forecasting is a model that meets the requirements for parameter significance, white noise and has the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error Smallest) value. The results of the analysis show that the best model for predicting the number of dengue cases in the Rowosari Public Health Center Semarang is the ARIMA model (1,0,0) with a MAPE value of 43.98% and a significance coefficient of 0.353, meaning that this model is suitable and feasible to be used as a forecasting model. DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in Semarang City.

scholarly journals Pencapaian Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 525
Author(s):  
Wulandari Wulandari ◽  
Pudji Muljono
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Family ◽  
Program Policy ◽  
The Government

One of the main problems of development that experienced by Indonesia at this time is the high number of poor people. In order to accelerate poverty reduction and the development of policy in the field of social protection for families very poor households, the government issued a policy that is Family Hope Program. Family Hope Program is a social assistance that realized by cash, education and health are addressed to very poor households particularly who has a 0-15 years old and pregnant mother/ postpartum. The purpose of this research is to identify the achievement of the Family Hope Program in Tedunan, Kedung district, Jepara regency. This research was conducted with a quantitative approach that is supported by qualitative data. The method used in this research is survey method with 40 respondent.Key words: family hope program , policy, povertyABSTRAKSalah satu masalah utama pembangunan yang dialami oleh Indonesia saat ini adalah tingginya jumlah penduduk miskin. Dalam rangka percepatan penanggulangan kemiskinan sekaligus pengembangan kebijakan di bidang perlindungan sosial bagi keluarga Rumah Tangga Sangat Miskin (RTSM), pemerintah mengeluarkan sebuah kebijakan yaitu Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH). Program Keluarga Harapan adalah bantuan sosial yang diwujudkan dengan bantuan tunai, pendidikan dan kesehatan yang ditujukan kepada Rumah Tangga Sangat Miskin (RTSM) khususnya yang memiliki anak usia 0-15 tahun dan ibu hamil/nifas. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi pencapaian Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) di Desa Tedunan, Kecamatan Kedung, Kabupaten Jepara. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan pendekatan kuantitatif yang didukung dengan data kualitatif. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode survey dengan responden sebanyak 40 orang.Kata kunci: kebijakan, kemiskinan, PKH

scholarly journals Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jyothi Unnikrishnan ◽  
Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh
Keyword(s):  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study attempts to determine the impact of government policies of import of gold in India on the domestic price of gold during 2013 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention model. 2013 was an amazing year for Indian gold market where the price had reached its zenith. In April 2013, to curb a record trade deficit, India imposed an import duty of 10 percent on gold and tied imports for domestic consumption to exports, creating scarce supply of the yellow metal and boosting premiums to curtail the Current Account Deficit (CAD). The objective of the paper is to model the impact of this intervention by the government on the domestic price of Indian gold. Suitable ARIMA model is fit on the preintervention period and thereafter the effects of the interventions are analysed. The results indicate that ARIMA(1,1,1)is the most suitable model during preintervention period. Intervention analysis reveals that there is significant decrease in domestic price of gold by 56% from 2013. The model may be used by policymakers to analyse the future of gold before framing regulations and policies.

scholarly journals Poverty Alleviation Strategy Policy Formulation in Toba Regency, North Sumatra Province

2020 ◽  
pp. 395
Author(s):  
Marlan Hutahaean ◽  
Dimpos Manalu ◽  
Johnson Pasaribu
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
The Government ◽  
North Sumatra

This paper aims to uncover the process of public policies formulation, specifically regarding poverty reduction strategies and social protection in Toba Regency, North Sumatra. The poverty reduction policy that is the focus of this research consists of three Regional Regulations (Perda), which were only issued in 2019, after the district was established (autonomy) since 1999, namely: Regional Regulation No. 2/2019 concerning the Implementation of Social Welfare, Regional Regulation No. 10/2019 concerning Protection and Fulfillment of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, and Regional Regulation Number policy formulation11/2019 concerning the Implementation of Elderly Welfare. This qualitative research concludes that the process and formulation of poverty reduction policies in Toba Regency took place technocratically and elitist. First, the three Regional Regulations are considered as "derived regulations", the operationalization of a higher level of statutory regulation (in this case government laws and regulations), which are considered to have clear scope and conception. Secondly, the three regional regulations were drafted at the end of the government (executive) period and national legislative elections which have implications and the potential for ineffective implementation of policies and as well as minimal oversight of the legislative majority which is not elected in the next period. This factor caused suspicion towards the three Regional Regulations to be solely formulated for the pragmatic interests of the incumbent regents for the sake of popularity and electability in the next regional elections. Third, there is a lack of public participation because these three regional regulations have policy targets for socially, culturally and politically vulnerable and voiceless groups, as well as the lack of support from civil society organizations. Based on the findings above, the policy recommendation put forward is that public involvement in the process and formulation of this Perda is not merely administrative in nature, but an active sequence from the setting agenda to the formulation.

scholarly journals Implementasi Kebijakan Penanggulangan Kemiskinan di Kota Medan Dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Politik

PERSPEKTIF ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 543-554
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ardian ◽  
Arief Marizki Purba
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
School To Work ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Assistance Programs ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
The Government ◽  
Traditional Fishing

This research aims to describe and analyze the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Policy in the Perspective of Political Economy in Medan Belawan District, Medan City. The research method used is descriptive research method with a qualitative approach. The results showed that the implementation of poverty reduction policies in Medan Belawan sub-district from the perspective of political economy has been running quite well. The whole series or process of activities starting from the initial socialization, reflecting on poverty, implementing the program, monitoring the program all went quite well. The success of the Poverty Reduction Policy is greatly supported by the effectiveness of the implementing organizations in providing learning, mentoring, independence, for the poor. The obstacle that occurs in the implementation of this policy is that there are still poor people, most of whom are traditional fishing workers who have not received the benefits of assistance programs from the Government. This caused some of their children to drop out of school to work to help their parents.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM THAT JUST AS THE PRO-POOR GOVERNMENT POLICIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Sri Suatmiati
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Basic Education ◽  
Development Program ◽  
The State ◽  
State System ◽  
Poor People ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Welfare State

<p>In Several states, social security for citizens is place to protect marginalized groups in order to maintain access to public services are rudimentary, such as services to meet the needs from the perspective of political economy known as basic need. Public welfare provision in the state system includes services in the areas of basic education, health and housing are cheap and good quality, if Necessary, free as in Western Europe is a cluster of countries are quite intense in terms of the welfare state principles. Free education and health is a major concern in Western Europe to get subsidies. The Data agency (BPS) said that the Indonesian population in 2010 income Rp.27,0 million a year. There are poor people Whose population is 80 percent of the population only contributes about 20 percent of GDP. There are the wealthy once or people who enter the category earn more than 30,000 dollars a year, but there are Also people with disabilities living income or $ 2 dollars per day (730 dollars a year), the which are still 100 million people. It means there is a huge gap. The words fair, equitable, wellbeing and prosperity was growing dimmer and the faint sound. This condition shows how there is no equity in income Because there is no strong will to realize the vision for the welfare of society. Impossible Anti-poverty program run properly if the governance of the state and society is not yet fully base on the welfare state system. Anti-poverty programs intertwine with the application of individual taxation that is progressive. If taxation without concept, poverty reduction strategy with the government has not gone According to the terms of the welfare state that is pro-poor.</p>

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Oilseeds Production in India: Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Group Method of Data Handling – Neural Network

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debasis Mithiya ◽  
Lakshmikanta Datta ◽  
Kumarjit Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Data Handling ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Oilseeds have been the backbone of India’s agricultural economy since long. Oilseed crops play the second most important role in Indian agricultural economy, next to food grains, in terms of area and production. Oilseeds production in India has increased with time, however, the increasing demand for edible oils necessitated the imports in large quantities, leading to a substantial drain of foreign exchange. The need for addressing this deficit motivated a systematic study of the oilseeds economy to formulate appropriate strategies to bridge the demand-supply gap. In this study, an effort is made to forecast oilseeds production by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which is the most widely used model for forecasting time series. One of the main drawbacks of this model is the presumption of linearity. The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) model has also been applied for forecasting the oilseeds production because it contains nonlinear patterns. Both ARIMA and GMDH are mathematical models well-known for time series forecasting. The results obtained by the GMDH are compared with the results of ARIMA model. The comparison of modeling results shows that the GMDH model perform better than the ARIMA model in terms of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The experimental results of both models indicate that the GMDH model is a powerful tool to handle the time series data and it provides a promising technique in time series forecasting methods.

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