scholarly journals Podaż pracy w Polsce – dotychczasowe tendencje i projekcje na przyszłość

2018 ◽  
pp. 55-73
Author(s):  
Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski ◽  
Leszek Kucharski
Keyword(s):  
Labour Supply ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Working Age Population

The scope of the paper refers to long- and medium-run trends of labour supply in Poland. The main purpose is to determine current trends in the labour supply and its projections till the year 2050. In the theoretical part of the paper determinants of labour supply are considered. The projections are based on the population forecasts till 2050 made by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO) and by the authors’ own simulations. Several variants of upper limit of working age and activity rates are taken into account. The population forecasts by the CSO indicate it will occur big decrease of working age population till 2050. The biggest decrease will refer to the group of working age 18–59/64 years and the lowest decrease in the age group 18–66 years. The analysis shows that the declines in labour supply in the years 2020–2050 will occur in all variants of working age population, the biggest decline in the variant assuming the age group 18–59/64 and the smallest decline – in the group 15–74 years. Retirement age is of big importance for the size of labour supply. This is why it is recommended to encourage older people to prolong their economic activity. It is also necessary to increase activity rates in the working age population.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Is There Empirical Evidence on How the Implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) Affects Labour Supply? A Systematic Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9459
Author(s):  
Manuela A. de Paz-Báñez ◽  
María José Asensio-Coto ◽  
Celia Sánchez-López ◽  
María-Teresa Aceytuno
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Detailed Search ◽  
Maximum Reliability

The objective of this article is to determine, as conclusively as possible, if the implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) would lead to a significant reduction in the working age population labour supply. If this were true, implementation of a UBI may not be sustainable. To do this, we will compile empirical evidence from studies over the last few decades on the effects of implementation of a UBI on employment. We apply the PRISMA methodology to better judge their validity, which ensures maximum reliability of the results by avoiding biases and making the work reproducible. Given that the methodologies used in these studies are diverse, they are reviewed to contextualize the results taking into account the possible limitations detected in these methodologies. While many authors have been writing about this issue citing experiences or experiments, the added value of this article is that it performs a systematic review following a widely tested scientific methodology. Over 1200 documents that discuss the UBI/employment relationship have been reviewed. We found a total of 50 empirical cases, of which 18 were selected, and 38 studies with contrasted empirical evidence on this relationship. The results speak for themselves: Despite a detailed search, we have not found any evidence of a significant reduction in labour supply. Instead, we found evidence that labour supply increases globally among adults, men and women, young and old, and the existence of some insignificant and functional reductions to the system such as a decrease in workers from the following categories: Children, the elderly, the sick, those with disabilities, women with young children to look after, or young people who continued studying. These reductions do not reduce the overall supply since it is largely offset by increased supply from other members of the community.

scholarly journals The New Zealand Workforce: 1950-2000

1970 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Rankin
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Income Effects ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Post War ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Household Incomes

In this paper, the author presents an historical perspective on the New Zealand labour market, placing the present employment crisis into its post-war perspective. The structural recession which commenced in the mid-1980s has placed huge stresses on the working age population. Just as the 1930s depression had a long-term impact on female workforce participation, the present crisis can be expected to permanently modify labour supply trends. The analysis focuses on income effects, with particular reference to responses to expectations of and changes in household incomes.

scholarly journals Female Labour Force Participation Rates in Rural Pakistan: Some Fundamental Explanations and Policy Implications

1987 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 687-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ghaffar Chaudhry ◽  
Zubeda Khan
Keyword(s):  
Labour Supply ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Female Labour ◽  
Gainful Employment ◽  
Productive Activities ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Labour supply is a key element in socio-economic development, and although the size, growth and composition of population have a strong bearing on its supply in an economy, the actual labour supply is a function of the labour force participation rate defined as the ratio of the population engaged in or seeking gainful employment to the working-age population. In Pakistan gainful employment means not only work for pay or profit but also unpaid help from family members, and the working-age population refers to the group of those aged 10 years or more. Although the use of labour force for computing participation rates has been criticised on the ground that it lays undue emphasis on market activities which have little relevance tb the less developed countries, particularly to the rural sector, (Standing 1978), it is nonetheless useful in studying household decisions regarding allocation of available time between productive and non-productive activities (Rees 1973). It is basically this division of labour between productive and non-productive activities that sheds light on the degree of development of an economy and, therefore, on the organization of factors of production (Yotopoulos 1986). The significance of rural participation rates, especially those of females, is noteworthy in this regard as there is a positive association between female productive work and the level of development achieved (Denti 1968). Female participation rates are also important for a proper understanding of the productive and reproductive roles of the population. As more than 70 percent of rural population depends on agriculture for its livelihood and rural females are nearly half of the total, their participation rates may be of critical importance in determining the rates of saving, investment and productivity in agriculture. It may also be noted that availability of labour in agriculture is also a function of the ready availability of female labour, especially for such operations as are performed exclusively by females, e.g. cotton picking.

scholarly journals SOCIAL POLICY OF JAPAN IN THE LABOR MARKET FOR OLDER AND DISABLED PEOPLE

2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Balakaeva ◽  
◽  
К. Shyntasova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Disabled People ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Government ◽  
Voluntary Basis

This article examines the state policy of Japan in the labor market for older and disabled people in the changing demographic situation associated with a decrease in the birth rate, an aging population and a reduction in the country's working-age population. Against the background of increasing social spending, the government is trying to solve the problem of labor shortages by increasing the employment of older people, of course on a voluntary basis. The government's measures are shown to increase the retirement age and to reduce the distance between the retirement age and the maximum permissible age of employment of employees (teinen). The data on changes in the structure of workers' employment after reaching teinen are presented. The policy of attracting disabled people to the labor market in order to improve their social status, improve living conditions and positively influence the economic situation is revealed. Both achievements and shortcomings in solving this issue are noted.

Current state of mortality of the working-age population in Russia and Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (11) ◽  
pp. 756-759
Author(s):  
Tatyana Yu. Gorchakova ◽  
Anastasiya N. Churanova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Current State ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
State Programs ◽  
The Eu

Introduction. Issues of preserving the health and saving of the Russian population are important in the development of state programs. One of the main sources of population growth, as well as the preservation of the labor potential of our country, is the reduction of the death rate of the working - age population. The aim of the study was to analyze the mortality of the population in the age groups 15-59 years and 15-64 years for men and 15-54 years and 15-59 years for women in Russia in comparison with the countries of the European Union (EU-28). Materials and methods. Mortality was studied based on data from Rosstat and the WHO Mortality Database and the Human Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated for Russia in 2018 and the EU-28 countries in 2017 (European standard, revised 2013). Results. Comparative analysis of the standardized mortality rates of the population 15 to 59 years and 15-64 years for men and 15-54 years of age and 15-59 years of age showed a significant gap between Russia and the EU-28. Differences in mortality among men in comparison with the EU-28 in the age group of 15-59 years was 3.1 times, and in the age group 15-64 years - by 2.8 times. In women aged 15-54 years, the excess was 2.5 times, and in those aged 15-59 years - 2.2 times. Conclusions. Thus, the analysis of modern data on the mortality of the male (aged 15-59 and 15-64 years) and female (aged 15-54 and 15-59 years) populations indicated that negative trends persist in Russia's lagging behind the European Union countries.

scholarly journals Az Egészségbiztosítási Alap táppénzes trendjei Magyarországon 1997 és 2017 között

2019 ◽  
Vol 160 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 37-42
Author(s):  
Mónika Nogel
Keyword(s):  
Sick Leave ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Insurance Fund ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Industrial Accident ◽  
Social Trends ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Hungarian State ◽  
Sick Pay

Introduction: The role of sick-pay is to compensate for loss of wage in case of incapacity for work, to ensure that there will be no break in the existential state of the incapacitated person. Aim: The purpose of our research was to examine data on sickness benefit and payroll data for the period 1997–2017. Data and methods: Our research was based on the data of the National Health Insurance Fund of Hungary, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the State Audit Office of Hungary and the Hungarian State Treasury as well as on the background reports of the European Commission’s Social Protection Committee and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and it is based on the legal environment of sick-pay. Results: In 1997, there were 119 000 of 3.558 million, in 1998 114 000 of 3.530 million, in 1999 115 000 of 3.433 million, in 2000 112 000 of 3.465 million, in 2006 100 000 of 3.523 million, in 2012 55 000 of 3.769 million entitled people on sick leave on average per day. In 2017, the number of entitled persons increased to 4.018 million, while the average number of sick days per day was 70 000. According to data from gender and age-based analysis, in most cases, women with childbearing were on sick-leave, the proportion of males was higher in relation to industrial accident. Between 2014 and 2016, the proportion of women on sick leave per day was 59–60%, while the major reason for sick-pay among men was the industrial accident. The distribution by age did not change significantly. In 2014–2015, the age-group 30–34, while in 2016 the age-group 35–39 had the highest utilization of sick-pay. Conclusion: We can conclude that the use of sick-pay is affected by the employment rate, legal changes affecting the amount of sick-pay and social trends like substitution difficulties due to labor shortages and fear of losing jobs. Orv Hetil. 2019; 160(Suppl 1): 37–42.

scholarly journals Nurses in Poland — Immediate Action Needed

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Józef Haczyński ◽  
Zofia Skrzypczak ◽  
Małgorzata Winter
Keyword(s):  
Tracking System ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Nursing Services ◽  
Bottom Position ◽  
Central Register ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Nurses And Midwives

Abstract The aim of the study is to analyse changes in the size of the population of nurses in Poland in the years 2004-2014, considering changes in their employment and the phenomenon of ageing. The analysis is based on the data published by the Central Register of Nurses and Midwives of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Nurses are the largest professional group in the healthcare sector. In 2014, only above 70% of licensed nurses were professionally active. The percentage of employed nurses compared to the number of licensed nurses varied between the lowest ratio of 65.1% in 2005 and the highest ratio of 71.7% in 2012. The latest ratio of 2014 was 70.9%, which was slightly lower compared to the highest ratio in 2012. The average age of a Polish nurse in 2008 was 44.19 years, increasing by about six years to 50.1 within the analysed period. The population of nurses aged above 65 years is almost 4.5 times bigger compared to the youngest age group, which is 21-25 years. Thus, 2/3 of the population of nurses are 41-60 years of age and nearly 85% are over 40. For two years (2000 and 2014), the number of practising nurses per 1000 inhabitants places Poland in the fifth bottom position among the European countries, which shows a significant reduction in patient access to nursing services. In Poland, the profession of nurses has no replacement generation. The article presents the shortage of professionally active nurses in Poland. The existing register of nurses does not contain complete information necessary to evaluate the current situation in Poland. There is a strong need to improve the tracking system of the register of nurses to accurately monitor the number of nurses in Poland The shortage of professionally active nurses and their ageing necessitates immediate action to reduce the shortage by increasing the appeal of the profession among young people and by encouraging nurses to return to the profession. It is also necessary to take action to delay the retirement of those nurses who want to work longer and to use their potential. This is also particularly important because of the gap in experience, which is going to become apparent the nearest future.

scholarly journals Labour Supply in the Labour Market in Rural Areas in Poland

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucyna Szczebiot–Knoblauch ◽  
Roman Kisiel
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
The Political ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Agricultural Census ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office

Since the beginning of the political transformation in Poland, it's been more than twenty years, however, the situation on the labor market in rural areas is not the best. Deteriorating statistics on the labor market in Poland, manifested by high unemployment and a growing number of people in rural areas is the main reason for the formulation of the main as: analysis of the supply side of the labor market in rural areas in Poland in the years 20o0-2011. Discussion is focused on the employment and unemployment rates in Poland and the total isolation of rural areas. The presented figures were derived from calculations made on the basis of Polish Statistical Yearbooks, Annals of rural population censuses and agricultural Census available at the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw and Olsztyn, and the Foundation for the Development of Polish Agriculture.

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