Modeling and Forecasting GDP Production in Russia, Taking into Account Changes in the Number of Working-Age Population Caused by the Retirement Age Increasing

Author(s):  
T. Skufina ◽  
S. Baranov ◽  
V. Samarina
2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.


Author(s):  
L.T. Balakaeva ◽  
◽  
К. Shyntasova ◽  

This article examines the state policy of Japan in the labor market for older and disabled people in the changing demographic situation associated with a decrease in the birth rate, an aging population and a reduction in the country's working-age population. Against the background of increasing social spending, the government is trying to solve the problem of labor shortages by increasing the employment of older people, of course on a voluntary basis. The government's measures are shown to increase the retirement age and to reduce the distance between the retirement age and the maximum permissible age of employment of employees (teinen). The data on changes in the structure of workers' employment after reaching teinen are presented. The policy of attracting disabled people to the labor market in order to improve their social status, improve living conditions and positively influence the economic situation is revealed. Both achievements and shortcomings in solving this issue are noted.


2018 ◽  
pp. 55-73
Author(s):  
Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski ◽  
Leszek Kucharski

The scope of the paper refers to long- and medium-run trends of labour supply in Poland. The main purpose is to determine current trends in the labour supply and its projections till the year 2050. In the theoretical part of the paper determinants of labour supply are considered. The projections are based on the population forecasts till 2050 made by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO) and by the authors’ own simulations. Several variants of upper limit of working age and activity rates are taken into account. The population forecasts by the CSO indicate it will occur big decrease of working age population till 2050. The biggest decrease will refer to the group of working age 18–59/64 years and the lowest decrease in the age group 18–66 years. The analysis shows that the declines in labour supply in the years 2020–2050 will occur in all variants of working age population, the biggest decline in the variant assuming the age group 18–59/64 and the smallest decline – in the group 15–74 years. Retirement age is of big importance for the size of labour supply. This is why it is recommended to encourage older people to prolong their economic activity. It is also necessary to increase activity rates in the working age population.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joelle H. Fong

AbstractPopulation aging and a shrinking workforce creates a significant drag on opportunities for economic growth. Specifically, many economies in Asia will see their demographic windows of economic opportunity close within the next two decades or so. One widely explored policy response among governments has been to encourage longer working lives or delay retirement. This paper traces developments in retirement age policies for rapidly aging Asian economies, and investigates the effect of recent reforms in old-age employment practices on their demographic windows. We find that increases in retirement age based on current policy prescriptions can help these aging economies extend their demographic windows by another two to seven years. Nonetheless, further extensions to working lives are needed to help sustain economic expansion and to provide support for growing elderly populations. Our study also demonstrates that the extent of the time gains from retirement age increases vary depending on how the age structures in each economy is expected to evolve over time. Accordingly, the timing and quantum of future retirement age increases should be suitably calibrated so as to sufficiently offset declines in the working-age population.


Author(s):  
T. Skufina ◽  
S. Baranov

Приведена постановка проблемы и значимость оценки влияния повышения пенсионного возраста на основные макроэкономические показатели. Рассмотрено влияние повышения пенсионного возраста на численность трудоспособного населения Российской Федерации. Анализ реальных данных и трех вариантов прогноза численности трудоспособного населения до 2036 г. указал на устойчивый спад численности трудоспособного населения, наблюдаемый с 2006 г. Приведены оценки авторов, указывающие, что повышение возраста выхода на пенсию приостановил устойчивую тенденцию снижения численности трудоспособного населения в России. Ключевые слова: пенсионная реформа, трудоспособное население, ВВП, производственные функции, прогноз. The article presents the problem and the importance of assessing the impact of raising the retirement age on the main macroeconomic indicators. The influence of increasing the retirement age on the number of ablebodied population of the Russian Federation is considered. Analysis of real data and three variants of the workingage population forecast up to 2036 pointed to a steady decline in the working age population observed since 2006. The authors estimates indicate that the increase in the retirement age has suspended the steady decline in the number of workingage population in Russia. Key words: pension reform, ablebodied population, GDP, production functions, forecast.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Tetzlaff ◽  
Jelena Epping ◽  
Juliane Tetzlaff ◽  
Heiko Golpon ◽  
Siegfried Geyer

Abstract Background Lung Cancer (LC) is one of the most prevalent cancer diseases. Due to the lack of databases which allow the combination of information on individual socioeconomic status (SES) and cancer incidence, research on social inequalities in LC among the German population is rare. The aim of the study is to analyse time trends in social inequalities in LC in Germany. Methods The analyses are based on data of a large statutory health insurance provider. The data contain information on diagnoses, occupation and education (working age), and income (full age range) of the insurance population. Trends were analysed for two subpopulations (retirement age and working age) and stratified by sex. The analyses are based on incidence rates and proportional hazard models spanning the periods 2006–2009, 2010–2013 and 2014–2017. Results Incidence rates declined in men but increased in women. For men, inequalities were strongest in terms of income and the decline in incidence was most pronounced in middle- and higher-income men. Among women at retirement age, a reversed income gradient was found which disappeared in the second period. The educational gradient among the working-age population decreased over time due to the trend towards increasing incidence among individuals with higher education. Declining gradients were also found for occupational position. Conclusion The findings reveal considerable inequalities in LC and that trends vary with respect to SES, sex and age. Widening income inequalities were found in the retired population, while educational and occupational inequalities tend to narrow among the working-age population.


Author(s):  
Semyonova V. G. ◽  
◽  
Ivanova A. E. ◽  
Sabgayda T. P. ◽  
Zubko A. V. ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Valentin N. Druzhinin ◽  
Vadim G. Suvorov ◽  
Nikolay V. Druzhinin ◽  
Aleksandr N. Cherniyi ◽  
Sergey N. Troynyakov

Currently, the problem of reducing the risk of developing fat liver hepatosis from exposure to household and industrial toxicants among the working-age population continues to be an important medical and social problem, since not timely diagnosis of the disease can lead to its progressive course with the development of inflammatory changes, necrosis and liver fibrosis up to cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. In this regard, the search for methods and techniques that optimize the diagnosis of fat hepatosis is relevant. Modern methods of radiation diagnostics of liver density characteristics can significantly reduce subjectivity in the assessment of changes due to the use of quantitative indicators. The aim of study - improving the quality of x-ray diagnostics of fat liver disease based on a precision assessment of the density of the liver parenchyma using computed tomography. A comparative retrospective analysis of the results of a comprehensive clinical and radiological examination of 115 men of working age in the range of 40-55 years was performed. The main group (48 people) - employees of machine-building plants: shapers, stumpers, fitters-assemblers who had industrial contact with such factors as local vibration, dust, noise, muscle strain, burdened with a long alcoholic history and the presence of signs of metabolic syndrome: hyperlipidemia, impaired tolerance to carbohydrates, diabetes, abdominal obesity. The comparison group included representatives of auxiliary professions without clinical signs of pathology (47 people), comparable in age and experience with the main group. X-ray examinations were performed using computer tomographs: "HI Spead CT/e Dual" by GE Medical Systems and "Aqulion 64" by Toshiba. To measure the liver density in Hounsfield units (HU), the ROI (zone of interest) tool was used, which allows determining the desired value over areas of different dimensions. Measurements were performed on computer screens in 4 zones of interest at 4 levels of scanning of the liver lobes (apex, level of the caval gate, level of the left lobe, level of the portal gate) with the calculation of the average values of the density index (IDH) and density gradients (IDG) relative to the aorta, spleen and kidney. Analysis of the results of a posteriori CT densitometry of various parts of the liver within the framework of the developed algorithm, including the use of absolute and relative (gradient) x-ray density indicators of hepatic, vascular (aorta),splenic and renal structures, allowed us to expand our understanding of the quantitative density characteristics both in normal and in patients with signs of diffuse fat hepatosis (FH). It was found that the liver parenchyma density indicators can be a kind of (conditional), sometimes the only indicators of the degree of severity of changes that objectively manifest positive or negative dynamics of pathophysiological processes and, in particular, at the initial stages of the development of the studied pathology. Density differences in the right and left liver parenchyma in the control group (conditional norm) in terms of absolute density and its gradient, regardless of the level of scanning, were insignificant (statistically unreliable). In patients with clinical signs of fatty liver infiltration at the stage of steatosis, in the absence of x-ray morphologically detectable structural changes, a decrease in IDH and the dynamics of its increase (recovery) at various stages of observation were revealed. Even with comparatively equal IDH of the evaluated departments, the IDG of different people differed, manifesting the individuality of metabolic processes occurring in the body, in particular in the liver, is a kind of indicator of their direction and severity. The significance of density indicators as predictors of the subsequent stages of the pathology under consideration was particularly evident in the analysis of the results of primary diagnostics and its development in the dynamics of observations. The application of the developed methodological approach allowed us to expand our understanding of the possibilities of KT-liver densitometry in patients with metabolic syndrome (hyperlipidemia, impaired carbohydrate tolerance, diabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity) in the diagnosis of fatty liver disease (FLD) at various stages of examination, including in the early subclinical phases of pathology development. The results obtained indicate the predominant role of ethyl alcohol as a hepatotoxicant in the development of FLD in the estimated cohort of the working-age population. The use of an original algorithm for evaluating tissue density makes it possible to significantly ensure the objectivity of the interpretation of research results.


Author(s):  
Ľubica Hurbánková ◽  

The paper deals with the analysis of unemployment in European Union countries on the basis of data of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed. The data are obtained from the Eurostat website. The aim of the paper is to find out how the number of unemployed in individual EU countries changed in 2018 compared to 2009, in which country the number of unemployed increased the most, in which the least. Appropriate tools of economic statistics are used for the analysis. Based on a four-factor model of the analysis of the number of unemployed, we find out how this indicator has changed depending on the change in the unemployment rate, the economic activity rate, the share of the working age population in the total population, and the total population. The application of statistical method is implemented through the programme Microsoft Office Excel.


Author(s):  
S. Voronkova

The article discusses ways to obtain information about risk factors and the health status of the population. The article describes a new information system «labor Medicine», which allows to organize the collection of a wide range of data for further analysis and application in the activities of various Executive authorities, public organizations, foundations, legal entities and citizens. It is proposed to improve this system by expanding the types of information collected, creating a passport for health promotion organizations, as well as integration with systems that are being implemented in the Russian Federation for managing the health of the working-age population in the context of state policy in the field of Informatization.


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