scholarly journals A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Panayiotis Dimitriadis ◽  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis ◽  
Theano Iliopoulou ◽  
Panos Papanicolaou
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Grid Turbulence ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
First Four Moments ◽  
Dependence Structures

To seek stochastic analogies in key processes related to the hydrological cycle, an extended collection of several billions of records from hundred thousands of worldwide stations is used in this work. The examined processes are the near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and atmospheric wind speed, as well as the hourly/daily streamflow and precipitation. Through the use of robust stochastic metrics such as the K-moments and a second-order climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process vs. scale), it is found that several stochastic similarities exist in both the marginal structure, in terms of the first four moments, and in the second-order dependence structure. Stochastic similarities are also detected among the examined processes, forming a specific hierarchy among their marginal and dependence structures, similar to the one in the hydrological cycle. Finally, similarities are also traced to the isotropic and nearly Gaussian turbulence, as analyzed through extensive lab recordings of grid turbulence and of turbulent buoyant jet along the axis, which resembles the turbulent shear and buoyant regime that dominates and drives the hydrological-cycle processes in the boundary layer. The results are found to be consistent with other studies in literature such as solar radiation, ocean waves, and evaporation, and they can be also justified by the principle of maximum entropy. Therefore, they allow for the development of a universal stochastic view of the hydrological-cycle under the Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, with marginal structures extending from nearly Gaussian to Pareto-type tail behavior, and with dependence structures exhibiting roughness (fractal) behavior at small scales, long-term persistence at large scales, and a transient behavior at intermediate scales.

Dependence structure between money and economic activity: A Markov-switching copula VEC approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Apostolos Serletis ◽  
Libo Xu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Dependence Structures

Abstract This paper examines correlation and dependence structures between money and the level of economic activity in the USA in the context of a Markov-switching copula vector error correction model. We use the error correction model to focus on the short-run dynamics between money and output while accounting for their long-run equilibrium relationship. We use the Markov regime-switching model to account for instabilities in the relationship between money and output, and also consider different copula models with different dependence structures to investigate (upper and lower) tail dependence.

A Second Order Lagrangian Model for Irregular Ocean Waves

2005 ◽  
Vol 128 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sébastien Fouques ◽  
Harald E. Krogstad ◽  
Dag Myrhaug
Keyword(s):  
Specular Reflection ◽  
Fluid Velocity ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Lagrangian Description ◽  
Linear Wave ◽  
Irregular Solution

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging of ocean waves involves both the geometry and the kinematics of the sea surface. However, the traditional linear wave theory fails to describe steep waves, which are likely to bring about specular reflection of the radar beam, and it may overestimate the surface fluid velocity that causes the so-called velocity bunching effect. Recently, the interest for a Lagrangian description of ocean gravity waves has increased. Such an approach considers the motion of individual labeled fluid particles and the free surface elevation is derived from the surface particles positions. The first order regular solution to the Lagrangian equations of motion for an inviscid and incompressible fluid is the so-called Gerstner wave. It shows realistic features such as sharper crests and broader troughs as the wave steepness increases. This paper proposes a second order irregular solution to these equations. The general features of the first and second order waves are described, and some statistical properties of various surface parameters such as the orbital velocity, slope, and mean curvature are studied.

scholarly journals Integrating hydrogeological and second-order geo-electric indices in groundwater vulnerability mapping: A case study of alluvial environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nyakno Jimmy George
Keyword(s):  
Protective Layer ◽  
Groundwater Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Aquifer Vulnerability ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Groundwater Vulnerability Mapping ◽  
Longitudinal Unit Conductance ◽  
S Model

AbstractAVI (Aquifer vulnerability index), GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer), GLSI (geo-electric layer susceptibility indexing) and S (longitudinal unit conductance) models were used to assess economically exploitable groundwater resource in the coastal environment of Akwa Ibom State, southern Nigeria. The models were employed in order to delineate groundwater into its category of vulnerability to contamination sources using the first- and second-order geo-electric indices as well as hydrogeological inputs. Vertical electrical sounding technique employing Schlumberger electrode configuration was carried out in 16 locations, close to logged boreholes with known aquifer core samples. Primary or first-order geo-electric indices (resistivity, thickness and depth) measured were used to determine S. The estimated aquifer hydraulic conductivity, K, calculated from grain size diameter and water resistivity values were used to calculate hydraulic resistance (C) used to estimate AVI. With the indices assigned to geo-electric parameters on the basis of their influences, GOD and FSLI were calculated using appropriate equations. The geologic sequence in the study area consists of geo-electric layers ranging from motley topsoil, argillites (clayey to fine sands) and arenites (medium to gravelly sands). Geo-electric parametric indices of aquifer overlying layers across the survey area were utilized to weigh the vulnerability of the underlying water-bearing resource to the contaminations from surface and near-surface, using vulnerability maps created. Geo-electrically derived model maps reflecting AVI, BOD, FLSI and S were compared to assess their conformity to the degree of predictability of groundwater vulnerability. The AVI model map shows range of values of log C ( −3.46—0.07) generally less than unity and hence indicating high vulnerability. GOD model tomographic map displays a range of 0.1–0.3, indicating that the aquifer with depth range of 20.5 to 113.1 m or mean depth of 72. 3 m is lowly susceptible to surface and near-surface impurities. Again, the FLSI map displays a range of FLSI index of 1.25 to 2.75, alluding that the aquifer underlying the protective layer has a low to moderate vulnerability. The S model has values ranging from 0.013 to 0.991S. As the map indicates, a fractional portion of the aquifer at the western (Ikot Abasi) part of the study area has moderate to good protection (moderate vulnerability) while weak to poor aquifer protection (high vulnerability) has poor protection. The S model in this analysis seems to overstate the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the AVI, GOD and GLSI models. From the models, the categorization of severity of aquifer vulnerability to contaminations is relatively location-dependent and can be assessed through the model tomographic maps generated.

scholarly journals Near–surface air temperature and snow skin temperature comparison from CREST-SAFE station data with MODIS land surface temperature data

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 7665-7687 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Pérez Díaz ◽  
T. Lakhankar ◽  
P. Romanov ◽  
J. Muñoz ◽  
R. Khanbilvardi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Skin Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable (commonly studied to understand the hydrological cycle) that helps drive the energy balance and water exchange between the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. One observable constituent of much importance in the land surface water balance model is snow. Snow cover plays a critical role in the regional to global scale hydrological cycle because rain-on-snow with warm air temperatures accelerates rapid snow-melt, which is responsible for the majority of the spring floods. Accurate information on near-surface air temperature (T-air) and snow skin temperature (T-skin) helps us comprehend the energy and water balances in the Earth's hydrological cycle. T-skin is critical in estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes over snow covered areas because incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes from the snow mass and the air temperature above make it different from the average snowpack temperature. This study investigates the correlation between MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data and observed T-air and T-skin data from NOAA-CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE) for the winters of 2013 and 2014. LST satellite validation is imperative because high-latitude regions are significantly affected by climate warming and there is a need to aid existing meteorological station networks with the spatially continuous measurements provided by satellites. Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data. Additional findings show that there is a negative trend demonstrating that the air minus snow skin temperature difference is inversely proportional to cloud cover. To a lesser extent, it will be examined whether the surface properties at the site are representative for the LST properties within the instrument field of view.

scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling Data for Studying Climatic Impacts on Hydrology, Permafrost, and Ecosystems in Arctic Alaska

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Cai ◽  
Vladimir A. Alexeev ◽  
Christopher D. Arp ◽  
Benjamin M. Jones ◽  
Anna Liljedahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Linear Scaling ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Northern Alaska

Abstract. Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.863625.

Exploring dependence structures in the international arms trade network: A network autocorrelation approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lebacher ◽  
Paul W Thurner ◽  
Göran Kauermann
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Econometrics ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Network Autocorrelation ◽  
Arms Trade ◽  
Disturbance Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dependence Structures

In this article, we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The dependence structure is represented by pre-defined weight matrices that allow for correlating flows from the network of international arms exchange. Three dependence structures are proposed, representing sender-, receiver- and sender–receiver-related dependencies. The appropriateness of the presumed structures is comparatively assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). It turns out that the dependence structure among the arms trade flows is complex and can be represented best by a specification that relates each arms trade flow to all exports and imports of the sending and the receiving state. Controlling for exogenous variables, we find that the trade volume increases with the GDP of the sending and the receiving state while the impact of geographical distance, regime dissimilarity and formal alliance membership is rather small.

scholarly journals Effects of Air Temperature and Precipitation on Soil Moisture on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the 2015 Growing Season

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Qingyan Xie ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Yufei Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Ecosystem Stability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) holds massive freshwater resources and is one of the most active regions in the world with respect to the hydrological cycle. Soil moisture (SM) plays a critical role in hydrological processes and is important for plant growth and ecosystem stability. To investigate the relationship between climatic factors (air temperature and precipitation) and SM during the growing season in various climate zones on the QTP, data from three observational stations were analyzed. The results showed that the daily average (Tave) and minimum air temperatures (Tmin) significantly influenced SM levels at all depths analyzed (i.e., 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 cm deep) at the three stations, and Tmin had a stronger effect on SM than did Tave. However, the daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) generally had little effect on SM, although it had showed some effects on SM in the middle and deeper layers at the Jiali station. Precipitation was an important factor that significantly influenced the SM at all depths at the three stations, but the influence on SM in the middle and deep layers lagged the direct effect on near-surface SM by 5–7 days. These results suggest that environment characterized by lower temperatures and higher precipitation may promote SM conservation during the growing season and in turn support ecosystem stability on the QTP.

scholarly journals Regional Hydrological Cycle over the Red Sea in ERA-Interim

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Zolina ◽  
Ambroise Dufour ◽  
Sergey K. Gulev ◽  
Georgiy Stenchikov
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Lower Layer ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Moisture Advection

Abstract The major sources of atmospheric moisture over the Red Sea are analyzed using ERA-Interim for the 1979–2013 period. The vertical structure of moisture transports across the coastlines has been computed separately for the western and eastern coasts of the Red Sea. The vertical structure of the moisture transport from the Red Sea to the continents is dominated by a breeze-like circulation in the near-surface layer and the Arabian high above 850 hPa. The lower-layer, breeze-like circulation is acting to export the moisture to the northwest of Africa and to the Arabian Peninsula and contributes about 80% of the moisture exports from the Red Sea, dominating over the transport in the upper layer, where the moisture is advected to the Arabian Peninsula in the northern part of the sea and to the African continent in the southern part. Integrated moisture divergence over the Red Sea decreased from the early 1980s to 1997 and then increased until the 2010s. Associated changes in the moisture export were provided primarily by the increasing intensity of the breeze-associated transports. The transports above the boundary layer, while being strong across the western and the eastern coasts, have a smaller effect on the net moisture export. The interannual variability of the moisture export in the near-surface layer was found to be closely correlated with the variability in sea surface temperature, especially in summer. Implications of the observed changes in the moisture advection for the hydrological cycle of the Middle East are discussed.

Conditional Short-Crested Second Order Waves in Shallow Water and With Superimposed Current

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jo̸rgen Juncher Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Water ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Stokes Wave ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Wave Kinematics ◽  
Wave Approach ◽  
Non Linear

For bottom-supported offshore structures like oil drilling rigs and oil production platforms, a deterministic design wave approach is often applied using a regular non-linear Stokes’ wave. Thereby, the procedure accounts for non-linear effects in the wave loading but the randomness of the ocean waves is poorly represented, as the shape of the wave spectrum does not enter the wave kinematics. To overcome this problem and still keep the simplicity of a deterministic approach, Tromans, Anaturk and Hagemeijer (1991) suggested the use of a deterministic wave, defined as the expected linear Airy wave, given the value of the wave crest at a specific point in time or space. In the present paper a derivation of the expected second order short-crested wave riding on a uniform current is given. The analysis is based on the second order Sharma and Dean shallow water wave theory and the direction of the main wind direction can make any direction with the current. Numerical results showing the importance of the water depth, the directional spreading and the current on the conditional mean wave profile and the associated wave kinematics are presented. A discussion of the use of the conditional wave approach as design waves is given.

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