scholarly journals Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1278
Author(s):  
Xingcai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Globe Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021–2050) and the end of the century (2071–2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3–5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.

scholarly journals Deforestation and climate change are projected to increase heat stress risk in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira ◽  
Marcus J. Bottino ◽  
Paulo Nobre ◽  
Carlos A. Nobre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Stress Exposure ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Heat Stress Index ◽  
The Impact

AbstractLand use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that heat stress exposure due to deforestation was comparable to the effect of climate change under RCP8.5. Our findings suggest that heat stress index could exceed the human adaptation limit by 2100 under the combined effects of Amazon savannization and climate change. Moreover, we find that risk of heat stress exposure was highest in Northern Brazil and among the most socially vulnerable. We suggest that by 2100, savannization of the Amazon will lead to more than 11 million people will be exposed heat stress that poses an extreme risk to human health under a high emission scenario.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

scholarly journals On the impact of future climate change on tropopause folds and tropospheric ozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14387-14401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Prodromos Zanis
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Identification Algorithm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using a transient simulation for the period 1960–2100 with the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) global model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm, we explore the future projected changes in tropopause folds, stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone, and tropospheric ozone under the RCP6.0 scenario. Statistically significant changes in tropopause fold frequencies from 1970–1999 to 2070–2099 are identified in both hemispheres, regionally exceeding 3 %, and are associated with the projected changes in the position and intensity of the subtropical jet streams. A strengthening of ozone STT is projected for the future in both hemispheres, with an induced increase in transported stratospheric ozone tracer throughout the whole troposphere, reaching up to 10 nmol mol−1 in the upper troposphere, 8 nmol mol−1 in the middle troposphere, and 3 nmol mol−1 near the surface. Notably, the regions exhibiting the largest changes of ozone STT at 400 hPa coincide with those with the highest fold frequency changes, highlighting the role of the tropopause folding mechanism in STT processes under a changing climate. For both the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) and Afghanistan (AFG) regions, which are known as hotspots of fold activity and ozone STT during the summer period, the year-to-year variability of middle-tropospheric ozone with stratospheric origin is largely explained by the short-term variations in ozone at 150 hPa and tropopause fold frequency. Finally, ozone in the lower troposphere is projected to decrease under the RCP6.0 scenario during MAM (March, April, and May) and JJA (June, July, and August) in the Northern Hemisphere and during DJF (December, January, and February) in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the decline of ozone precursor emissions and the enhanced ozone loss from higher water vapour abundances, while in the rest of the troposphere ozone shows a remarkable increase owing mainly to the STT strengthening and the stratospheric ozone recovery.

scholarly journals Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 2013-2023 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. YU ◽  
P. DALE ◽  
L. TURNER ◽  
S. TONG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ross River Virus ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYRoss River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

scholarly journals Heat Stress Changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C Global Warming Targets

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 2819-2831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Min Lee ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Severe Heat Stress ◽  
Globe Temperature

This study provides a first quantification of possible benefits of global warming mitigation through heat stress reduction over East Asia by comparing projection results between low-emission and high-emission scenarios, as well as between 1.5° and 2.0°C target temperature conditions. Future changes in summer heat stress over East Asia were examined based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in the intensity, frequency, and duration of heat stress were analyzed in terms of area fraction across RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios and also between two selected model groups representing 1.5°- and 2.0°C-warmer worlds. Severe heat stress, exceeding the 50-yr return value of the present-day period, is expected to become very frequent, occurring every second year over the large part of East Asia by the 2040s, irrespective of RCP scenarios. The frequency of extreme daily heat stress events is predicted to increase in a similar speed of expansion, with signals emerging from the low latitudes. The WBGT signal emergence is found to be much faster than that of corresponding temperature alone due to the smaller variability in WBGT, supporting previous findings. The 1.5°C-warmer world would have about 20% reduction in areas experiencing severe heat stress over East Asia, compared to the 2.0°C-warmer world, with significant changes identified over the low latitudes. Further, compared to the transient world, the equilibrium world exhibits larger increases in heat stress over East Asia, likely due to the warmer ocean surface in the northwestern North Pacific. This suggests an important role of ocean warming patterns in the regional assessment of global warming mitigation.

scholarly journals Impacts of heat stress conditions on mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-330
Author(s):  
Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira ◽  
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson ◽  
Letícia Palazzi Perez ◽  
Ismael Henrique da Silveira ◽  
Washington Leite Junger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature ◽  
Risk Of Exposure ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Globe Temperature ◽  
The Impact

This study assesses the risk of exposure to heat stress conditions and their potential impact on mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazilian capital cities for warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C in the RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of exposure and the impact of heat stress conditions on mortality were measured by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index. The impact on health was estimated by applying exposure-response curves between WBGT and health outcomes in the projections. The potential impact on mortality was measured by attributable fraction of mortality due to heat stress. The results showed an increase in heat stress conditions for Brazil, especially in the Northern and Center-Western regions. The estimated curves showed an association between the WBGT and mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazil, with an upward impact trend, according to the levels of warming and heterogeneous results among the capitals.  

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽  
Thomas Panagopoulos ◽  
Elham Rafiei Sardooi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim van der Schriek ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
Dimitra Founda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contrasting urban and rural settings. Subsequently, we used a five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) to simulate air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005 covering the period 2006–2100. Two 20-year historical reference periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015) were selected with contrasting UHI regimes; the second period had a stronger intensity. The daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (Tmax and Tmin) for the two reference periods were perturbed to two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2076–2095, under the three RCPs, by applying the empirical quantile mapping (eqm) bias-adjusting method. This novel approach allows us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two UHI intensity regimes that are mainly forced by differences in air pollution and heat input. We found that the future frequency of days with Tmax > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. Thus, the impact of heatwaves on the urban environment of Athens is dependent on UHI intensity. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with Tmin > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site. This large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot nights is likely caused by air pollution. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be highly effective in reducing urban temperatures and extreme heat events in Athens under future climate change scenarios. Such policies directly have multiple benefits, including reduced electricity (energy) needs, improved living quality and strong health advantages (heat- and pollution-related illness/deaths).

Shaping the future of hospitality and travel: trends in energy, environmental, and labor force and work

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-152
Author(s):  
Marvin J. Cetron ◽  
Owen Davies ◽  
Fred DeMicco ◽  
Mohan Song
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Travel Industry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to continue to forecast trends in the hospitality and travel industry with practical implications.Design/methodology/approachThis study is the updated version of our previous list of trends. The new edition updates the previous report on the implications for the hospitality industry of major trends now shaping the future. We focus mainly on energy, environmental and labor force and work trends and discuss sub-trends under each trend. We then implicate how the trends affect the Hospitality and Travel industry.FindingsWe shared implications under each sub-trends.Originality/valueThe value of this article is to analyze the impact of the environment on the Hospitality and Travel industry from a macro perspective. For each trend, we implicate an estimate for future trends. We hope this article sheds light on the prediction of the Hospitality and Travel industry.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document