scholarly journals Modelling Public Transport Accessibility with Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulations: A Case Study of Ostrava

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7098 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiri Horak ◽  
Jan Tesla ◽  
David Fojtik ◽  
Vit Vozenilek
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
Commuting Time ◽  
The Impact

Activity-based micro-scale simulation models for transport modelling provide better evaluations of public transport accessibility, enabling researchers to overcome the shortage of reliable real-world data. Current simulation systems face simplifications of personal behaviour, zonal patterns, non-optimisation of public transport trips (choice of the fastest option only), and do not work with real targets and their characteristics. The new TRAMsim system uses a Monte Carlo approach, which evaluates all possible public transport and walking origin–destination (O–D) trips for k-nearest stops within a given time interval, and selects appropriate variants according to the expected scenarios and parameters derived from local surveys. For the city of Ostrava, Czechia, two commuting models were compared based on simulated movements to reach (a) randomly selected large employers and (b) proportionally selected employers using an appropriate distance–decay impedance function derived from various combinations of conditions. The validation of these models confirms the relevance of the proportional gravity-based model. Multidimensional evaluation of the potential accessibility of employers elucidates issues in several localities, including a high number of transfers, high total commuting time, low variety of accessible employers and high pedestrian mode usage. The transport accessibility evaluation based on synthetic trips offers an improved understanding of local situations and helps to assess the impact of planned changes.

The impact of future cities on commuting patterns: An agent-based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1079-1096
Author(s):  
Marcello Marini ◽  
Anna P Gawlikowska ◽  
Andrea Rossi ◽  
Ndaona Chokani ◽  
Hubert Klumpner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Simulation Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Commercial Activities ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Commuting Time ◽  
Commuting Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Over the next 35 years, the population of Switzerland is expected to grow by 25%. One possible way to accommodate this larger population is to transform smaller cities in Switzerland through the direct intervention of urban planners. In this work, we integrate agent-based simulation models of people flow, mobility and urban infrastructure with models of the electricity and gas systems to examine the increase of the density of existing residential zones and the creation of new workplaces and commercial activities in these urban areas. This novel simulation framework is used to assess, for the year 2050, two different scenarios of urbanization in a region with small urban areas. It is shown that a densification scenario, with a preference for multi-dwelling buildings, consumes 93% less land than a sprawl scenario, with a preference for single-family houses. The former scenario also accommodates 27% more people than the latter scenario, as there is a higher penetration of battery electric vehicles – and therefore reduced air pollution from the transportation sector – and also a larger shift of commuters to the use of public transport. However, in the former scenario, the commuting time is 20% longer. The outcome of this work demonstrates how this novel simulation framework can be used to support the formulation of policies that can direct the transformation of urban areas.

Assessment and design of real world driving cycles targeted to the calibration of vehicles with electrified powertrain

2021 ◽  
pp. 146808742110387
Author(s):  
Stylianos Doulgeris ◽  
Zisimos Toumasatos ◽  
Maria Vittoria Prati ◽  
Carlo Beatrice ◽  
Zissis Samaras
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Operational Parameters ◽  
Virtual Design ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Vehicle Simulation ◽  
Driving Cycles ◽  
The Impact

Vehicles’ powertrain electrification is one of the key measures adopted by manufacturers in order to develop low emissions vehicles and reduce the CO2 emissions from passenger cars. High complexity of electrified powertrains increases the demand of cost-effective tools that can be used during the design of such powertrain architectures. Objective of the study is the proposal of a series of real-world velocity profiles that can be used during virtual design. To that aim, using three state of the art plug-in hybrid vehicles, a combined experimental, and simulation approach is followed to derive generic real-world cycles that can be used for the evaluation of the overall energy efficiency of electrified powertrains. The vehicles were tested under standard real driving emissions routes, real-world routes with reversed order (compared to a standard real driving emissions route) of urban, rural, motorway, and routes with high slope variation. To enhance the experimental activities, additional virtual mission profiles simulated using vehicle simulation models. Outcome of the study consists of specific driving cycles, designed based on standard real-world route, and a methodology for real-world data analysis and evaluation, along with the results from the assessment of the impact of different operational parameters on the total electrified powertrain.

The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation’s Conditional Random Noise: Impact on Simulated Climate

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4715-4730 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Räisänen ◽  
H. W. Barker ◽  
J. N. S. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Independent Column ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) method for computing domain-average radiative fluxes is unbiased with respect to the full ICA, but its flux estimates contain conditional random noise. Results for five experiments are used to assess the impact of McICA-related noise on simulations of global climate made by the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The experiment with the least noise (an order of magnitude below that of basic McICA) is taken as the reference. Two additional experiments help demonstrate how the impact of noise depends on the time interval between calls to the radiation code. Each experiment is an ensemble of seven 15-month simulations. Experiments with very high noise levels feature significant reductions to cloudiness in the lowermost model layer over tropical oceans as well as changes in highly related quantities. This bias appears immediately, stabilizes after a couple of model days, and appears to stem from nonlinear interactions between clouds and radiative heating. Outside the Tropics, insignificant differences prevail. When McICA sampling is confined to cloudy subcolumns and when, on average, 50% more samples, relative to basic McICA, are drawn for selected spectral intervals, McICA noise is much reduced and the results of the simulation are almost statistically indistinguishable from the reference. This is true both for mean fields and for the nature of fluctuations on scales ranging from 1 day to at least 30 days. While calling the radiation code once every 3 h instead of every hour allows the CAM additional time to incorporate McICA-related noise, the impact of noise is enhanced only slightly. In contrast, changing the radiative time step by itself produces effects that generally exceed the impact of McICA’s noise.

scholarly journals CALIBRATION OF VILNIUS PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL

Transport ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasa Ušpalyte-Vitkūniene ◽  
Marija Burinskiene ◽  
Vytautas Grigonis
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Performance Quality ◽  
Passenger Flows ◽  
The Impact

The application of information technologies preconditions the optimisation of performance of transport systems: improvement of the performance quality, safety and efficiency of the overall system, increase in capacity, reduction of the trip duration without high financial investment into construction of the new technical infrastructure. The transport modelling is the only economical and sufficiently reliable way to carry out a forward assessment of the impact of the innovations to be applied on the overall system. The network of Vilnius public transport was built up on the data of 2002, and the year 2002 saw the last comprehensive surveys. Building up the PT network the data was taken from the VIDAS database, created in 2002 while drafting the special plan for Vilnius transport infrastructure (tram) development. The morning rush hour, when the passenger flows are maximum, was chosen for the modelling. Calibration of Vilnius PT network was carried out after selection of three possible methods: TSys‐based, Headway‐based and Timetable‐based. In the timetable‐based model Logit, Kirchhoff, BoxCox and Lochse distribution factors are inter‐changed. Analysis of all coefficients received when modelling allows a conclusion that further modelling of the development of Vilnius public transport network should be based on Timetable‐based model choosing Kirchhoff or BocCox distribution laws, whereof conformity to the basic averages of coefficients of the 2002 survey is respectively 0,82 and 0,81. This would facilitate adopting solutions to the development of the public transport systems and would increase their reliability. The calculated coefficients revealed that TSys‐based methods were mostly removed from reality, and the average coefficient of failure to conform to the data of the 2002 survey is 0,24. This method did not give any data about the load on the stops, although the number of trips modelled with the help of this method was most proximate to the survey data, i.e. 0,69 %.

A07 The impact of urban structure on mental health in Turin: the importance of public transport accessibility

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. S8-S9
Author(s):  
Giulia Melis ◽  
Giulia Marra ◽  
Elisa Ferracin ◽  
Elena Gelormino ◽  
Giuseppe Costa
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Urban Structure ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
The Impact

THE EXTENT OF INFLUENCE OF O–D MATRIX ON THE RESULTS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODELING

Transport ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasa Ušpalytė-Vitkūnienė ◽  
Vytautas Grigonis ◽  
Gražvydas Paliulis
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Break Point ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Transport System ◽  
Route Network ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
The Impact

A rapidly developing and equality-based society needs a reliable and attractive public transport system. With booming mobility in Lithuania, a great importance has been attached to the sustainable development concept, and public transport has been given priority in the urban transport system. Accessibility and comfort of public transport are essential indicators that guarantee equal travelling opportunities for all people. Transport modelling is the only economical and sufficiently reliable way to carry out a forward assessment of the impact of innovations to be applied to the overall system without involvement of passengers. This paper considers estimation of the origin–destination (O–D) matrix and its size correction. The public transport (PT) system of Vilnius City was taken as a basis for the research. Modelling of Vilnius City public transport was carried out with the help of VISUM software. Modelling of the public transport route network in Vilnius is aimed at improving the quality of life of inhabitants of the city. The O–D matrix is one of the key elements in modelling. Reliability of modelling results is based on reliability and size of the matrix. Although many scientists analyse the problem of estimating an O–D matrix, this paper focuses on the size of the O–D matrix required in order to give reliable results in PT modelling. During the first step, the matrix of 230 transport districts is estimated, which is reduced by 10 percent with every following step. The aim of this article is to find the break point in the size of O–D matrix where the reliability of PT modeling results falls.

Is compact city livable? The impact of compact versus sprawled neighbourhoods on neighbourhood satisfaction

Urban Studies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (11) ◽  
pp. 2408-2430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kostas Mouratidis
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Compact City ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
Neighbourhood Satisfaction ◽  
The Impact

Low-density urban forms are often considered more livable than compact ones. Yet, studies investigating the relationship between compact cities and livability do not take into consideration the importance of public transport, accessibility and mix of land uses along with high densities. Moreover, direct comparisons of livability between the compact city and its alternative, urban sprawl, are scarce, and even more so in a European context. Investigating the metropolitan area of Oslo, which encompasses both compact and sprawled areas, this study examines the impact of the compact city on livability by employing neighbourhood satisfaction as a livability measure. Three different methods are used: cross-sectional regression analysis, longitudinal comparisons and qualitative analysis. Cross-sectional results indicate that compact-city residents are significantly more satisfied with their neighbourhood than those who live in sprawled neighbourhoods, even after controlling for sociodemographic and other variables. Longitudinal analysis based on residents who have lived in both neighbourhood types confirms this finding. This study also examines the impact of compactness within a wider range of urban form typologies and finds that the higher the density, the higher the neighbourhood satisfaction. Important components of the compact city – public transport, accessibility to city centre and land use mix – demonstrate a positive association with neighbourhood satisfaction. Findings from this study suggest that, when common urban problems are addressed, and when planned to integrate all its essential characteristics, the compact city has a positive influence on livability.

scholarly journals Housing Cost Dependence on Transport Accessibility Territory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharov Maksim Igorevich
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Transportation Costs ◽  
Housing Cost ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
Time Costs ◽  
Route Network ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The study the housing cost dependence on the transport accessibility of the territory of the city will improve the efficiency of the route network and will lead to a reduction in overall transportation costs. The research algorithm consisted of the following stages: data on transport accessibility were systematized; calculation of time costs assessed transport accessibility by city zones; the dependence of the cost per square meter on the time cost of movement is obtained. When assessing the impact of transport accessibility on the housing cost it is important to pay attention to the remoteness from the central part of the city, the proximity of highways, the system of access roads; the proximity of public transport stops with a large number of routes connecting different zones.

IMPACT OF STATE AND REGIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE RUSSIAN PASSENGER VEHICLE FLEET

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-47
Author(s):  
Т.М. Мазурчук ◽  
М.В. Черняев
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Scientific Publication ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
Passenger Vehicles ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

В научной публикации изучаются изменения структуры парка легковых транспортных средств при развитии сети общественного транспорта на территории Российской Федерации. В современном мире роль общественного транспорта невозможно переоценить, во многих странах отказ от личных транспортных средств в пользу общественного транспорта включается в стратегии развития экономики и экологии. В связи с этим авторами поставлена цель оценить влияние реализуемых государственных и региональных проектов развития доступа к общественному транспорту в России на динамику изменения количества легковых транспортных средств с учетом применения международного опыта развития дорожных сетей. Научной базой исследования выступают российские и зарубежные нормативно-правовые акты, федеральные и региональные планы и стратегии развития, программы финансирования общественного транспорта, статистические базы МВД РФ, федеральной службы государственной статистики, а также мнения экспертов отрасли. The scientific publication studies changes in the structure of the fleet of passenger vehicles as a result of developing the public transport network in the territory of the Russian Federation. In the modern world, the role of public transport cannot be overestimated; in many countries, switching from personal vehicles to public transport is included in economic and environmental development strategies. Therefore, the purpose of the present research is to assess the impact of the implemented state and regional projects aimed at public transport accessibility development in Russia on the dynamics of changes in the number of passenger vehicles, taking into account the application of international experience in the development of road networks. Russian and foreign legal acts, federal and regional plans and development strategies, public transport financing programs, statistical bases of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as opinions of industry experts have formed the scientific basis of the study.

Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Fried ◽  
J. Keith Gilless ◽  
James Spero
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Fire Protection ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Stochastic Simulation Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Stochastic simulation models of initial attack on wildland fire can be designed to reflect the complexity of the environmental, administrative, and institutional context in which wildland fire protection agencies operate, but such complexity may come at the cost of a considerable investment in data acquisition and management. This cost may be well justified when it allows for analysis of a wider spectrum of operational problems in wildland fire protection planning. The California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), is a sophisticated stochastic simulation model designed to facilitate quantitative analysis of the potential effects of changes in many key components of most wildland fire systems, e.g. availability and stationing of resources, dispatch rules, criteria for setting fire dispatch level, staff schedules, and deployment and line-building tactics. The CFES2 model can also be used to support strategic planning with respect to vegetation management programs, development at the wildland–urban interface, reallocation of responsibilities among fire protection agencies, and climatic change. The analytical capacity of stochastic simulations models to address such key issues is demonstrated using the CFES2 model in four case studies addressing the impact on initial attack effectiveness of: (1) multiple fire starts; (2) diversion of firefighting resources to structure protection; (3) alternate stationing of firefighting resources; and (4) multi-agency cooperation.

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