scholarly journals Food Insecurity, Population Growth, Urbanization and Water Availability: The Role of Government Stability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12336
Author(s):  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Farhan Ahmed ◽  
Amber Pervaiz ◽  
Štefan Bojnec
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

To examine the impact of population growth, urbanization and water availability on food insecurity, this study utilized time series data for the period of 1990–2019, from World Development Indicators (WDI), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and World Bank. The study applied an Auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) co-integration approach to test the hypothesized relationships among modeled variables. The study found a negative and significant association of water resources and agriculture research with food insecurity while urbanization and population growth has a significant and positive impact on food insecurity in the short-run as well as in the long-run period. Moreover, the study found that political stability has a negative and significant association with food insecurity in the short-run and long-run periods. Results also indicated that political stability significantly strengthens the relationship of water resources, and agriculture research with food insecurity while political stability weakens the relationship of urbanization and food insecurity significantly.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals An Econometric Validation of Malthusian Theory: Evidence in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Joseph David
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Malthusian Theory

Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector.DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461

Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽  
Ubaid Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

scholarly journals Tax Revenue and Government Expenditure in Sri Lanka: An Econometric AEG Testing Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Government ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

In the global economic administration, tax revenue has been identified as the engine of the government expenditure, but the relationship of them was not investigated econometrically, this situation formulated a research gap for tasting the relationship of them. The aim of this study was to examine the Cointegration relationship among the tax revenue and the government expenditure in Sri Lanka. This study considered two time series variables such as the tax revenue and the government expenditure. The tax revenue was considered as the independent variable and the government expenditure was considered as the dependent variable. The sample period of this study was from 1950 to 2013.The Cointegration technique was used to check the long run relationship and the Error Correction Mechanism was employed to investigate the short run behavior of the tax revenue on the government expenditure. According to the empirical results, the R-squared of the estimated model was 0.99. In the meantime, the Durbin Watson statistics was 0.828. However, this model did not suffer from the spurious problem because the residual of this model was stationary. The tax revenue has sustained positive relationship with government expenditure. And also, the partial coefficients of tax revenue and its probability values in the estimated model were 0.695 (0.000) in short run and 1.031 (0.000) in long run periods. Therefore, the tax revenue and government expenditure had cointegrated at level form I(0) and maintained the long and short run relationship between them.

scholarly journals GDP and Public Expenditure in Education, Health, and Defense. Empirical Research for Greece

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
pp. 2319
Author(s):  
Kyriaki Efthalitsidou ◽  
Eleni Zafeiriou ◽  
Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos ◽  
Ioannis Betsas ◽  
Nikolaos Sariannidis
Keyword(s):  
National Income ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Scientific Value ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Public Expenditure In Education

Wagner Law and Keynesian approaches are the two fundamental theories of public finance. The aim of this study is to assess empirical evidence for the public spending–national income relationship at a disaggregated level for the time period 1995–2019. The sectoral public expenditures include education, health, and defense. The data employed were derived by EUROSTAT and OECD. Based on our findings, a sole relationship of the variables was validated, while the causality of the relationship provides conflict results depending on whether two-variate or multivariate methodology is employed. In the case of the multivariate framework that outperforms the two-variate approach in terms of information, the causality is directed from government expenses to the GDP level, validating the Keynesian approach in the long run as well as in the short run. On the other hand, the results validate Wagner Law based on the results of Granger causality pairwise test. A potential interpreatation for the results found is related to the measures imposed by the Memorandum, since the disproportionate cuts of the public expenses in the period of crisis have determined the evolution of national income. The scientific value of the presents study stands on the suggestion of potential effective measures aiming at the limitation of national income shrinkage in periods of severe economic crises worldwide.

scholarly journals An Empirical Relationship between Agriculture Investment and Economic Growth in North Macedonia: An ARDL Analysis

TEM Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1470-1475
Author(s):  
Nikolche Jankulovski ◽  
Biljana Angelova ◽  
Meri Boshkoska
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to find the relationship between agriculture investment and the growth of the gross domestic product in North Macedonia. We collected the yearly secondary time series data between the periods 1991 to 2020. We run the ARDL co-integration test to check the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between dependent and independent variables. We found a positive and significant relationship between agriculture valueadded and the growth of the GDP in the long run. The agricultural land has a positive relationship with the growth of the GDP in the long run but negatively correlated in the short run. Last, both variables agricultural methane emissions and inflation are negatively correlated with the growth of the gross domestic product in both the long and the short run.

The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima ◽  
Asa Romeo Asa
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study intended to empirically validate the applicability of the Phillips Curve in Namibia since independence, using semi-annual time series data, and taking into account the periods of the annus horribilis of the global financial crises and the Coronavirus Disease pandemic. It further sought to examine the nature of the relationship between inflation and unemployment to determine whether it is short-run or long-run and establish the causal relationship between the variables using various econometric analyses. The unit root tests indicate that the variables were stationary in their level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship. Hence, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model was performed to measure the short-run relationship between the variables. Results from the OLS analysis reveal a bidirectional nexus between inflation and unemployment, validating the presence of the Phillips Curve in the Namibian economy. These results correspond to the findings that incorporated the periods of economic shocks; thus, adjudging the critics of the Philips Curve regarding the consideration of economic shockwaves to be nonsensical in the Namibian economy. Finally, Granger causality test was conducted to establish the causal relationship between the variables, and results found inflation and unemployment to be unrelated. Based on these findings, the study recommends policymakers to adopt a policy mix, skewed to reducing unemployment predominately among the youth since the issues cannot be addressed simultaneously. Lastly, the study suggests future investigations to assess panel analyses on the phenomenon concerning developing countries, particularly those in the same region. It also recommends a significant focus on the determinants of inflation and unemployment since the variables were found to be independent of each other. This will give accurate directives to policymakers in an attempt to address the matter in terms of policy formulation and assimilation when they understand where the issue is deriving from.

(Testing the causality between Exports, Oil Rent, and Gross Domestic Product in Kuwait: An empirical study for the period (1980 -2017: اختبار السببية بين الصادرات وإيجار النفط والناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الكويت: دراسة تجريبية للفترة (1980 - 2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saif Sallam Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Direction Of Causation ◽  
The Relationship

The study of the relationship between oil prices, exports, and economic growth has captured the interest of economists for decades, especially for oil-exporting countries. This study intends to determine the relationship and the direction of causation among oil rent, exports, and economic growth in the short-run and long-run, and the causation effects among the variables. Time series data collected from both the world bank and International Monetary Fund databases for the period 1980 to 2017. The series tested for stationarity, cointegration, and causation using the unit root, cointegration, and pairwise granger causality tests. The results revealed that there was a long-run association among the variables. On the other hand, causation only exists between export and economic growth in both directions. Eviews10 statistical software used for the analysis.

scholarly journals Concessional Debt and Growth in Services Sector of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdullah ◽  
Ayza Shoukat ◽  
Atif Ali Gill
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

The current study aims to explore the relationship between concessional debt and the services sector growth of Pakistan. The annual time series data for the period 1972 to 2019 has been employed. To find out the stationarity and order of integration, the ADF testis utilized. For the long-run relationship, Johansen's co-integration methodology is employed. The empirical results of the study manifest that growth in the services sector is sensitive to concessional debt in the long run. All other explanatory variables also demonstrated a positive and significant effect on services sector growth. VECM method is applied for short-run analysis. The lag of concessional debt is also positive in the short run. A negative and statistically significant lag of error correction term (ECT-1) reasserts the long-run relationship between services sector growth and concessional debt along with other explanatory variables.

scholarly journals Relationships among Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Population Growth: Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Brazil, China, India and Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Wahid Murad ◽  
Abu Hanifa Md. Noman ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the impacts of income, energy consumption and population growth on CO2 emissions by employing an annual time series data for the period 1970-2012 for India, Indonesia, China, and Brazil. The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach considering both the linear and non-linear assumptions for related time series data for the top CO2 emitter emerging countries in both the short run and long run. The results show that CO2 emissions have increased statistically significantly with increases in income and energy consumption in all four countries. While the relationship between CO2 emissions and population growth was found to be statistically significant for India and Brazil, it has been statistically insignificant for China and Indonesia in both the short run and long run. Also, empirical observations from the testing of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis imply that in the cases of Brazil, China and Indonesia, CO2 emissions will decrease over the time when income increases. So based on the EKC findings, it can be argued that these three countries should not take any actions or policies, which might have conservative impacts on income, in order to reduce their CO2 emissions. But in the case of India, where CO2 emissions and income were found to have a positive relationship, an increase in income over the time will not reduce CO2 emissions in the country.

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