scholarly journals Unique Features and Intensity of COVID-19 Spread in Large Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 86-104
Author(s):  
V. M. Chetverikov
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Health Security ◽  
Emerging Trends ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Republic ◽  
One Year ◽  
Restrictive Measures

The article focuses on determining the unique features and intensity of Covid-19 spread in large economies, using mathematical and statistical tools. According to international statistics and using the example of 24 countries, each producing more than 1% of the world GDP at least one year between 1980 and 2019, the author carried out a preliminary analysis of geographical distribution and spread of the viral pandemic, that in 2020 overtook almost the whole world. It is suggested the data for these countries be grouped into three types of scenarios, dividing them into several options. The work uses time series for three indicators, calculated per 1 million of the country’s population. Two of these indicators reflect, respectively, the levels of infection and incidence of coronavirus cases, and the third - daily growth of COVID-19 cases. Such a system of indicators allows, according to the author, to adequately determine emerging trends and is convenient for comparing the unique features and intensity pandemic spread in different countries. The article presents a hypothesis about the possible reasons for the synchronization of trends for different countries in which the same type of scenario came true. It is demonstrated that the often-used case-fatality rate is not very informative in conditions when the pandemic is far from ending. A more illustrative indicator of healthcare system mobilization capacity as a whole in the face of global challenges is the infection fatality rate per 1 million of the country’s population. The ranking of all 24 countries by this indicator significantly differs from the Global Health Security Index ranking, published in 2019. After the conclusion, in the appendix to the article, the author provides illustrations in the form of graphs tracking the pandemic spread in the countries under review, as well as brief information on particular aspects of the Republic of Korea response to managing and combatting the most dangerous infection, which is different from both temporary but harsh restrictive measures for the population in the PRC and relatively mild measures implemented in many countries of the world.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF CHRONIC DISEASES ON THE MANIFESTATION OF COVID-19 INFECTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 126-132
Author(s):  
S. O. Yastremska ◽  
O. M. Krekhovska-Lepiavko ◽  
B. A. Lokay ◽  
O. V. Bushtynska ◽  
S. V. Danchak
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Summary. The first known case of infection from the novel coronavirus was recorded almost one year ago, in China’s Hubei province. The city of Wuhan was infamous the world over as the original virus epicenter, seeing more than half of China’s reported cases and deaths. The outbreak of COVID-19 virus, as sickened more than 14.7 million people. At least 610.200 people have died. The aim of the study – to analyze and systematize the literature data about the influence of chronic diseases on the manifestation of COVID-19 infection. Materials and Methods. The study uses publications of the world scientific literature on COVID-19 infection, in particular the causes and mechanisms of its development, treatment, complications and its consequences as well as the influence of different chronic disorders on the course of COVID-19. Results. A sample of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 across 14 states of the USA in March was analyzed by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was found that many (89 %) had underlying health problem and 94 % of patients were at the age 65 and older. The case fatality rate for those under age 60 was 1.4 percent. For those over age 60, the fatality rate jumps to 4.5 percent. The older the population, the higher the fatality rate. For those 80 and over, Covid-19 appears to have a 13.4 percent fatality rate. Moreover, it was recognized, that older adults don't present in a typical way of the course of different disorders, and we're seeing that with Covid-19 as well. Conclusions. Chronic diseases and conditions are on the rise worldwide. COVID-19 became the most challenging pandemic influencing all countries worldwide. Chronic diseases are suggested to be one of the main causes of different life-threatening complications of COVID-19 infection and one of the main factors of poor prognosis for the patients.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals COVID-19 in conflict region: the arab levant response

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazih A. Bizri ◽  
Walid Alam ◽  
Tala Mobayed ◽  
Hani Tamim ◽  
Maha Makki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Health ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Stability Index ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
The Other ◽  
Global Health Security ◽  
Health Security ◽  
The World

Abstract Background COVID-19 has hit the world in an unprecedented way causing serious repercussions on several aspects of our life. Multiple determinants have affected various nations’ level of success in their responses towards the pandemic. The Arab Levant region in the Middle East, notoriously known for repeated wars and conflicts, has been affected, similarly to other regions, by this pandemic. The combination of war, conflict, and a pandemic brings too much of a burden for any nation to handle. Methods A descriptive analysis of data obtained from the health departments of various Arab Levant Countries (ALC) was performed. ALC include Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Palestine. The data collected involves incidence, recovery rate, case fatality rate and number of tests performed per million population, Global Health Security index, government stringency index, and political stability index. The information obtained was compared and analyzed among the ALC and compared to global figures. An extensive electronic literature search to review all relevant articles and reports published from the region was conducted. The 2019 Global Health Security (GHS) index was obtained from the “GHS index” website which was made by John Hopkins University’s center for health security, the Nuclear threat Initiative (NTI) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Government stringency index and political stability index were obtained from the University of Oxford and the website of “The Global Economy”, respectively. Other world governance indicators such as government effectiveness were obtained from the World Bank website. Results In terms of incidence of COVID-19, Iraq has the highest with 9665 per one million population, Syria the lowest at 256 per million. Deaths per million population was highest in Iraq at 237, and the lowest in Syria at 12. As for number of tests per million population, Lebanon ranked first at 136,033 with Iraq fourth at 59,795. There is no data available for the tests administered in Syria and subsequently no value for tests per million population. In terms of recoveries from COVID-19 per million population, Iraq had the highest number at 7903 per million, and Syria the lowest at 68 per million. When compared as percent recovery per million, Palestine ranked first (84%) and Syria last (27%). The government response stringency index shows that Jordan had the highest index (100) early in the pandemic among the other countries. Palestine’s index remained stable between 80 and 96. The other countries’ indices ranged from 50 to 85, with Lebanon seeing a drop to 24 in mid-August. Even with improved stringency index, Iraq reported an increased number of deaths. Conclusion In countries devastated by war and conflict, a pandemic such as COVID-19 can easily spread. The Arab Levant countries represent a breeding ground for pandemics given their unstable political and economic climate that has undoubtedly affected their healthcare systems. In the era of COVID-19, looking at healthcare systems as well as political determinants is needed to assess a country’s readiness towards the pandemic. The unrest in Lebanon, the uprising in Iraq, the restrictions placed on Syria, and the economic difficulties in Palestine are all examples of determinants affecting pandemic management. Jordan, on the contrary, is a good example of a stable state, able to implement proper measures. Political stability index should be used as a predictor for pandemic management capacity, and individual measures should be tailored towards countries depending on their index.

scholarly journals Global Health Security Capacity Against COVID-19 Outbreak: An Analysis of Annual Data from 210 Countries and Territories

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Maraghi ◽  
Amal Saki Malehi ◽  
Fakher Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Environment ◽  
Health Security ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Functional Capabilities ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Prevention Center

Objectives: To review the most recent GHS index annual report to observe the regional and global level of health security against the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as their relationship with the case fatality rate, among 210 countries and territories worldwide. Methods: We analyzed October 2019 GHS index, to assess the capacity of health security-based on the GHS index in the context of six categories. We prioritized not only the capacities of 210 countries and territories around the world using the GHS index but also the existence of functional capabilities to prevent pandemics at the source. Data were collected from global databases, including Worldometer, WHO, and Disease Control and Prevention Center (CDC). Results: This study collected data on 210 countries and territories, of which up to April 14, 2020, 72 countries (34.28%) with more than 1,000 total COVID-19 cases were present. In the most prepared group, the number of total COVID-19 diagnostic tests had a significant positive relationship with the GHS index (r = 0.713; P = 0.006). Case fatality rate was directly associated with the detection index (r = 0.304; P = 0.023) in more prepared group”. In the Lower-middle-income economies group, the case fatality rate was positively related to detection, response, and risk environment indices. Conclusions: With the exception of a very small number, countries that were ranked as most prepared countries were more likely to be affected by the COVID-19 outbreak of the virus and its health consequences and needed to seriously reconsider their capabilities and health security in the context of detection, prevention, rapid response, health system facilities, and risk environment against disease outbreak.

scholarly journals GLOBAL SETTLEMENT: THE FATE OF LOCALITY IN RELATION TO MODERN SOCIAL LIFE IN DAGESTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 769-782
Author(s):  
Ekaterina L. Kapustina
Keyword(s):  
Labor Migration ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Alternative View ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Global Village ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Village ◽  
Physical Locality

The article performs the current discussion of such categories as local and global in modern anthropology and suggests the option of using categories for the modern sociocultural reality of Dagestan society. The positions of leading researchers, deconstructing the concepts of “locality” and “community”, offering an alternative view of a traditional society rooted in a particular place, are demonstrated. Deterritorized societies in the face of significant social changes in the world (migration, including transnational and translocal, as well as the process of globalization) are becoming a new form of social interaction, where physical locality gives way to other categories linking people into relevant communities. In relation to the Dagestan realities, it is proposed to consider local deterritized societies through the prism of the conceptual metaphor “global village”. The factors contributing to the formation of such deterritorialized communities are shown. It is also shown the example of such a community - the village of Bezhta situated on the bordeland with the Republic of Georgia. A look at the complex of physical localities united by belonging to this mountain village (the village itself, resettlement villages on the plain of Dagestan, families located outside the republic in labor migration and living a translocal life, and also to a lesser extent the village of Chantliskuri in Georgia) as version of the "global village".

scholarly journals JOINT REGIONAL MILITARY ACT TO CURB CORONA VIRUS PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 158
Author(s):  
Thomas Atmaja Adi ◽  
Ganesha Wandawa ◽  
Wahyu Hidayat
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Military Medicine ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Data Processing Tool ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Military

<div><p class="Els-history-head">Threats to the security of the Republic of Indonesia are classified as military and non-military threats. One of the non-military threats is the danger of an epidemic, which includes a threat with a public safety dimension. The growth of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases has been very fast. As of August 4, 2020, globally 18.14 million cases were confirmed worldwide with 691,013 deaths or a Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) of 3.8%. The 2019-nCoV Outbreak became a COVID-19 pandemic which has an impact on public health and the world economy. ASEAN Plus member countries are deploying militaries to help contain the spread and control the effects of this pandemic. The military is deployed because it is considered a trained resource and is better prepared to deal with emergencies. The purpose of this study is to analyse the joint action of the regional military in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses an explanative qualitative method using NVivo as a data processing tool and data analysis using Soft System Methodology (SSM). The results of this study found that the joint regional military actions that have been carried out to stem the spread of COVID-19 are dominated by activities carried out by the ASEAN Center of Military Medicine (ACMM) as the leading sector, activities that have been carried out are the exchange of information and sharing practical activities in managing COVID-19, holding a Tabletop Exercise (TTX) for public health emergency response, joint research and sharing health materials among ASEAN Plus member countries. Meanwhile, the ASEAN Plus network of biological and radiological defense experts has yet to show specific activities to curb the COVID-19 pandemic.</p></div>

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia: an unusual lung ultrasound presentation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Letizia Consoli ◽  
Vittorio Bendotti ◽  
Sara Cicchinelli ◽  
Federico Gaioni ◽  
Paola Prandolini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Lung Ultrasound ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ground Glass Opacity ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Chest Computed Tomography ◽  
Ultrasound Findings ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) was first reported in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread around the world, leading to an international emerging public health emergency. As reported from Chinese experiences, approximately 20% of patients had a severe course, requiring intensive care, with an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. In diagnosis, chest computed tomography most commonly showed ground-glass opacity with or without consolidative patterns.Herein we report a case of a patient affected by COVID-19 pneumonia referred in the emergency department of our institution on 4 April 2020 with peculiar lung ultrasound findings.

CASE FATALITY IN INFANTS AND CHILDREN WITH PERTUSSIS, 1942-1946

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1950 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 840-852
Author(s):  
JEROME L. KOHN ◽  
ALFRED E. FISCHER ◽  
HERBERT H. MARKS
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Older Children ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
One Year ◽  
In Infants And Children

Analysis of data on patients with pertussis during 1942-1946 obtained by means of a questionnaire from communicable disease hospitals and from health officers in a number of cities in the United States and Canada showed these results: Case fatality rates of patients admitted to hospitals for treatment have declined substantially in the period under review. This decline is general, both among infants under one year of age and among older children. In 1946, the case fatality rate of the infants hospitalized for the disease was 5.0% in those cities for which data for at least four years were available. This may be compared with the rate of 7.8% in 1942 and 11.1% in 1943. At ages one year and over, the rate was only 1.3% in 1946, as compared with 1.7% in 1942 and 3.7% in 1943. The rates in the hospitals with larger experiences were generally more favorable than in hospitals with smaller experiences. Despite the incomplete reporting of pertussis, which results in exaggerating the case fatality rate for the general population, the level of these rates in the community as a whole was lower than for hospitalized cases. This reflects the higher proportion of the severer cases in the hospitalized group. Indications are that in many places hospitalization is limited more and more to severe cases. Progress in the management of pertussis, especially of the severer cases admitted to hospitals, is believed to be the chief factor in the decline in case fatality of pertussis. A request contained in the questionnaire for an opinion on the severity of pertussis during the period studied elicited few replies, and these replies showed a division of opinion on the matter. It appears unlikely that there has been much of any change in the severity of the disease.

scholarly journals Priority directions of development “Uzbekneftegas” jsc in the conditions of globalization of the world economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 ◽  
pp. 01008
Author(s):  
G.Zh. Allaeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Hydrocarbon Production ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Republic

The article considers the role of “Uzbekneftegas” JSC in the economic development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic in the face of increasing global economic globalization. The structure of the company, the priority areas for the development of JSC activities are shown. The perspective directions in hydrocarbon production are considered. The data on the production, use and distribution of natural gas by sectors of the economy of Uzbekistan are presented, and the structure of the energy balance of the Republic of Uzbekistan is shown.

scholarly journals The influence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern on national case fatality rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Barletta
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Wide Spread ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractBackgroundDuring 2021 several new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus appeared with both increased levels of transmissibility and virulence with respect to the original wild variant. The Delta (B.1.617.2) variation, first seen in India, dominates COVID-19 infections in several large countries including the United States and India. Most recently, the Lambda variant of interest with increased resistance to vaccines has spread through much of South America.ObjectiveThis research explores the degree to which new variants of concern 1) generate spikes and waves of fluctuations in the daily case fatality rates (CFR) across countries in several regions in the face of increasing levels of vaccination of national populations and 2) may increase the vulnerability of persons with certain comorbidities.MethodsThis study uses new, openly available, epidemiological statistics reported to the relevant national and international authorities for countries across the Americas, Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Daily CFRs and correlations of fatal COVID-19 infections with potential cofactors are computed for the first half of 2021 that has been dominated by the wide spread of several “variants of concern” as denoted by the World Health Organization.ResultsThe analysis yields a new quantitative measure of the temporal dynamics of mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the form of variations of a proxy case fatality rate compared on a country to-country basis in the same region. It also finds minimal variation of correlation between the cofactors based on WHO data and on the average apparent case fatality rate.

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