scholarly journals Zmiana układu sił w stosunkach międzynarodowych: analiza potencjałów z perspektywą do lat 2025−2030

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 69-106
Author(s):  
Lech Smolaga ◽  
Mateusz Smolaga
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Political Effects ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global North

This article focuses on the political effects of ongoing shifts in the world economy. Using various indicators, including shares in the global Gross Domestic Product, expenditures on research and development, external balance on goods and services, and military expenditures, the authors present how the positions of major powers in international relations (the United States, the European Union and its countries, Japan, China, and Russia) have changed over the last few decades. Current data and the extrapolation of trends reveal that we are witnessing significant changes in economic power across the world. This has undoubtedly exacerbated existing tensions in international politics. The text tests the hypothesis that a weakening of the major economies of the global North (the US, EU, and Japan), and related shift in the balance of power, are driving the world towards the existence of a multi-polar international system.

Germany's relations with the United States and China from a strategic triangle perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Biba
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Power ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Puzzle Piece ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Angela Merkel

Abstract As the Sino-American Great Power competition continues to intensify, newly-elected US President Joe Biden's administration now seeks to enlist the support of its allies and partners around the world. As Europe's largest economy and a, if not the, leading voice within the European Union, Germany represents an important puzzle-piece for Biden. But Germany, at least under outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel, has been reluctant to take sides. It is against this backdrop that this article looks into Germany's past and present trilateral relationships with the US and China through the theoretical lens of the so-called strategic triangle approach. Applying this approach, the article seeks to trace and explain German behaviour, as well as to elucidate the opportunities and pitfalls that have come with it. The article demonstrates that Germany's recently gained position as a ‘pivot’ (two positive bilateral relationships) between the US and Chinese ‘wings’ (positive bilateral relations with Germany and negative bilateral relations with each other) is desirable from the perspective of the strategic triangle. At the same time, being pivot is also challenging and hard to maintain. Alternative options, such as entering a US–German ‘marriage’ directed against China, are also problematic. The article therefore concludes that Germany has tough decisions to take going forward.

Structural realism and Dulles's China policy

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
WOOSEON CHOI
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
International System ◽  
Structural Realism ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
China Policy ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
Containment Policy

AbstractThe Eisenhower administration's tough containment policy toward China has been conventionally viewed as an unsensible policy resulting from domestic political pressures or ideology. Refuting the conventional explanations, this article argues that during the early Cold War, the US superiority in bipolarity drove China to balance the United States in Asia. Dulles, the architect of the China policy, made accurate assessments of the power structure in Asia and the inevitable enmity with China. Driven by structural imperative, he decided to pursue containment to maintain the favourable balance of power in Asia by retarding the relative power growth of China allied with the Soviet Union and secondarily by accelerating their conflict through harder pressure on a weaker China. This case long considered as a prime anomaly to balance of power theory actually demonstrates how powerfully distributions of power shape alliance behaviours of states in the anarchic international system.

scholarly journals Gulliver at the Crossroads: America’s Strategy During the Global Transition

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-44
Author(s):  
A. P. Tsygankov
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International System ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
Identity Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Transition

The article discusses the modern stage of international relations as a transition from the US-centric to another, polycentric world order. America has many opportunities to infl uence the formation of the future world order, which it uses for maintaining a dominant role in the world. However, America also has severe weaknesses for making the global transition; the main one considers the psychological unpreparedness of the country’s establishment for a change in the global role of the United States. The country’s transitional situation gives rise to an identity crisis, accompanied by the most heated debates in the political class regarding the development of foreign policy and strategy. In the variety of positions and narratives of the American strategy, one can distinguish (1) proponents of the liberal globalization and maintaining America’s dominant position, (2) advocates of superpower status and resource dominance by coercion and (3) realists or those who call for building a new global balance of power and coordinating the US interests with other powers. This identity crisis is associated with the globally changing position of the country that has been at the center of the international system for the past 75 years. The American political class was never monolithic before and even during the Cold War, representing a range of diff erent foreign policy ideas and positions. However, foreign policy disagreements previously did not question the national identity and fundamental value of the country. For America, these values were associated with a global role in promoting the ideals of freedom and liberal democracy, previously underpinned by confrontation with the USSR. The disappearance of the Soviet power strengthened the position of liberal globalists and enhanced the strategic narrative of the global promotion of American values. The diff erence of the contemporary period is that nationalists and realists no longer accept the arguments of liberal globalists, resulting in a deepening of ideological polarization in the political class and society. The domestic ideational and political crisis splits the elites, delays the transition to a new world order, and makes it impossible to pursue a sound international strategy. Such a strategy will be the result of both an internal political struggle and a response of the country’s leadership to the processes of pluralization and polycentrism developing in the world.

scholarly journals Achieving a ‘Good AI Society’: Comparing the Aims and Progress of the EU and the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huw Roberts ◽  
Josh Cowls ◽  
Emmie Hine ◽  
Francesca Mazzi ◽  
Andreas Tsamados ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Documents ◽  
The Past ◽  
Transatlantic Cooperation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Eu

AbstractOver the past few years, there has been a proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) strategies, released by governments around the world, that seek to maximise the benefits of AI and minimise potential harms. This article provides a comparative analysis of the European Union (EU) and the United States’ (US) AI strategies and considers (i) the visions of a ‘Good AI Society’ that are forwarded in key policy documents and their opportunity costs, (ii) the extent to which the implementation of each vision is living up to stated aims and (iii) the consequences that these differing visions of a ‘Good AI Society’ have for transatlantic cooperation. The article concludes by comparing the ethical desirability of each vision and identifies areas where the EU, and especially the US, need to improve in order to achieve ethical outcomes and deepen cooperation.

scholarly journals The USA, Russia and China as a Center of Influence in Global Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 09009
Author(s):  
Irina Minakova ◽  
Tatyana Bukreeva ◽  
Olga Solodukhina ◽  
Artyom Golovin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
International System ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interstate Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Key Issues

Research background. Due to the significant role that the United States, Russia and China play in the world political and economic processes, US-Russia-China relations can be recognized as the most important interstate relations in the world, setting the direction for the transformation of the international system. Nowadays, the study of these trilateral relations is a relevant scientific task. The authors, on a systematic basis, have investigated the aspects of interaction between the USA, Russia and China in the modern economy, which opened the way for solving the key issues of international relations. The authors have published several papers on this issue in Russia and abroad, including publications in Scopus and Web of Science indexed journals. Purpose of the article is to analyse the US-Russia-China relations and to determine the directions of their development in the context of globalization of the world economy. Methods. To analyse the interests, a systematic method was used that allows considering the interests of the United States, China and Russia as an holistic, complex mechanism with elements constantly interacting with each other. Findings & Value added. Despite geographical, linguistic, religious, and other distinctions, the United States, China, and Russia have a lot in common. There were historical periods of active and positive cooperation between these three major superpowers. In our opinion, in spite of the current contradictions between the parties, Russia, China and the United States have a mutual concern in harmonizing trilateral interests. However, the existed contradictions are not insoluble.

scholarly journals Impacts of the U.S. subsidy to soybeans on World prices, production and exports

2006 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antônio Salazar P. Brandão ◽  
Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Net Exports ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Domestic Support ◽  
The U.S

This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the soybean market (grain, oil and meal) to assess the effects of U.S. domestic support to soybeans on world soybean prices, production and exports. The model divides the world into five regions (modules): Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, the United States (US) and the Rest of the World (ROW). There are interactions between the modules through the international prices and the net exports of each soybean product. The international prices of grain, oil and meal are endogenous and are determined equating net exports of the first four modules (Argentina, Brazil, European Union and the U.S.) to net imports of the ROW. The analysis is conducted eliminating the U.S. domestic support to soybeans and simulating the impacts on the variables of interest. The simulations show a significant impact of the US subsidy to soybeans on world prices and net exports of the four selected regions.

Hegemony and the International Economy

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 451-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Pahre
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
American Literature ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
The Military

AbstractPower and leadership are among the central features of politics. They become even more visible in an environment such as the international system that lacks strong institutions. Without legislatures or administrative organs in a normal sense, political processes such as leadership, persuasion, and coercion come to the fore.These processes, especially the question of leadership, are central to many policy questions. Is Franco-German leadership of the European Union breaking up, or will it be joined by a more Europhile Britain? How will China or Japan play a leadership role in East Asia?Nowhere is the question of leadership more discussed than in the case of the most powerful country in the world – once the United Kingdom, today the United States, perhaps one day China. For some people, the leadership of this "hegemon" helps bring peace and prosperity to the world as a whole; for others, its dominance is overbearing and illegitimate.Questions of hegemony have received significant academic attention over the past few decades. This chapter will review the North American literature on the topic, with an eye toward several questions. First, what does a hegemon do when it is being hegemonic? Second, how do non-hegemonic countries respond to its leadership? Third, and most important for the future, is hegemony good or bad for the international system? I will discuss these with reference to topics in political economy, setting aside an equally-large literature on the military consequences of hegemony. Though political economy has implications for ideology and discourse, this article will also set aside most of these issues, which have sparked a large and distinct literature of their own.

scholarly journals Political Cataclysms at the Start of the Century and the Future of the International Relations System

2015 ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
A. V. Korobkov
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Fifteenth Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
International System ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global North ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Power Center

Abstract: Crises in Ukraine and the Middle East indicate the existence of deep shifts in the global international relations system. These shifts are much more serious than the widely discussed erosion of the US international monopoly and are related to the global transfer of the world economic and political power center from North Atlantic to the Pacific Basin. Thus quickly collapsing is the world Eurocentric system that has ruled the world since the end of the Fifteenth century. Meanwhile, the Western, and especially the European elites refuse to recognize the scale and the potential consequences of these processes. In particular, their actions are pushing Russia towards China. Retaining stability of the international system would require the recognition by the Global North of the reality of these changes, the return to the acceptance of the state sovereignty concept, and the abandonment of attempts to impose its will on the others under.

Sino-American Competition in Southeast Asia

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
David Shambaugh
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

This chapter provides an overview of the competition between the United States and People’s Republic of China, particularly in one geo-strategically important part of the world: Southeast Asia. Both scholarly analyses and public opinion polls indicate that the Sino-American competition in the region is intensifying. This book examines the competition broadly, their respective capabilities more narrowly, and assesses the relative balance of power between the two. However, some cautionary caveats are in order at the outset. First, the US-China competition is not merely dyadic, as if no other actors matter. Quite to the contrary, the superpower competition is ameliorated and adjudicated by the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indeed, ASEAN states have a long history of protecting their independence and warding off interference and great power competition. The second caveat flows from the first. Thus far, the US-China competition is not (yet) a Cold War–style one. With these two caveats, the chapter presents several principal findings. It also considers the importance of Southeast Asia.

The World Trade System Today

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagdish N. Bhagwati ◽  
Pravin Krishna ◽  
Arvind Panagariya
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
World Trade ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
The World ◽  
Multilateral System

This chapter discusses on going trends in the world trade system. The landscape of the international trade system has undergone substantial change in recent decades. While many multilateral successes were achieved under the GATT, the failure of the WTO member countries to successfully close the Doha round of trade negotiations has now engendered a mood of pessimism regarding the future of the multilateral system. Countries have turned to preferential (and thus discriminatory, albeit GATT-legal) trade agreements and many new deals are now under negotiation, including the “mega-regional” agreements – the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between the United States and Pacific-rim countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union. At the same time, developing countries having expanded their participation in international trade, challenge the international system to accommodate their interests and aspirations. Finally, worsening global economic conditions and a populist focus on the alleged links between the inequality of incomes within countries and globalization, have generated a protectionist backlash affecting political outcomes in many countries.

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