scholarly journals ВЛИЯНИЕ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ПЕНСИОННОГО ВОЗРАСТА НА ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ТРУДОСПОСОБНОГО ВОЗРАСТА

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Skufina ◽  
S. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Production Functions ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact

Приведена постановка проблемы и значимость оценки влияния повышения пенсионного возраста на основные макроэкономические показатели. Рассмотрено влияние повышения пенсионного возраста на численность трудоспособного населения Российской Федерации. Анализ реальных данных и трех вариантов прогноза численности трудоспособного населения до 2036 г. указал на устойчивый спад численности трудоспособного населения, наблюдаемый с 2006 г. Приведены оценки авторов, указывающие, что повышение возраста выхода на пенсию приостановил устойчивую тенденцию снижения численности трудоспособного населения в России. Ключевые слова: пенсионная реформа, трудоспособное население, ВВП, производственные функции, прогноз. The article presents the problem and the importance of assessing the impact of raising the retirement age on the main macroeconomic indicators. The influence of increasing the retirement age on the number of ablebodied population of the Russian Federation is considered. Analysis of real data and three variants of the workingage population forecast up to 2036 pointed to a steady decline in the working age population observed since 2006. The authors estimates indicate that the increase in the retirement age has suspended the steady decline in the number of workingage population in Russia. Key words: pension reform, ablebodied population, GDP, production functions, forecast.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PROCESSES IN THE MURMANSK REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF PENSION REFORM IMPLEMENTATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (64) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Tatiana P. Skufina ◽  
◽  
Sergey V. Baranov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Murmansk Oblast ◽  
Pension Policy ◽  
Reform Implementation ◽  
Murmansk Region ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article deals with demographic and social processes in the Murmansk Oblast in the context of the implementation of pension reform in the Russian Federation. Theoretical and methodological ideas concerning the pension policy in the world and in the Russian Federation are summed up; the influence of retirement age increase on the number of working-age population in Russia and in the Murmansk region is estimated; sentiments of population of the Murmansk region in the context of the pension reform are revealed.

STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RAISING THE RETIREMENT AGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Apenko ◽  
◽  
Olga Kiriliuk ◽  
Elena Legchilina ◽  
Tatiana Tsalko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Impact

The article presents the results of a study of the impact of pension reform in Russia on economic growth and quality of life in a digital economy, taking into account the experience of raising the retirement age in Europe. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth in the context of the development of digitalization in Russia and a comparative analysis with European countries. Results: the studies conducted allowed us to develop a system of indicators characterizing the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth and the quality of life of the population in the context of digitalization. The authors found that raising the retirement age leads to a change in labor relations in Russia and Europe. The application of the proposed indicators can be used in the formation of a balanced state socio-economic policy in the field of institutional changes in the field of labor relations and raising the retirement age. The study was carried out under a grant from the RFBR № 19-010-00362 А.

The development of information interaction as a key element of state risk management and health protection

2020 ◽  
pp. 68-76
Author(s):  
S. Voronkova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Health Promotion ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Interaction ◽  
New Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Types Of Information

The article discusses ways to obtain information about risk factors and the health status of the population. The article describes a new information system «labor Medicine», which allows to organize the collection of a wide range of data for further analysis and application in the activities of various Executive authorities, public organizations, foundations, legal entities and citizens. It is proposed to improve this system by expanding the types of information collected, creating a passport for health promotion organizations, as well as integration with systems that are being implemented in the Russian Federation for managing the health of the working-age population in the context of state policy in the field of Informatization.

The Random Forest Method in Research of Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators of Regional Development on Informal Employment Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
E. V. Zarova ◽  
E. I. Dubravskaya
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Random Forest Method ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The topic of quantitative research on informal employment has a consistently high relevance both in the Russian Federation and in other countries due to its high dependence on cyclicality and crisis stages in economic dynamics of countries with any level of economic development. Developing effective government policy measures to overcome the negative impact of informal employment requires special attention in theoretical and applied research to assessing the factors and conditions of informal employment in the Russian Federation including at the regional level. Such effects of informal employment as a shortfall in taxes, potential losses in production efficiency, and negative social consequences are a concern for the authorities of the federal and regional levels. Development of quantitative indicators to determine the level of informal employment in the regions, taking into account their specifics in the general spatial and economic system of Russia are necessary to overcome these negative effects. The article proposes and tests methods for solving the problem of assessing the impact of hierarchical relationships on macroeconomic factors at the regional level of informal employment in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Majority of the works on the study of informal employment are based on basic statistical methods of spatial-dynamic analysis, as well as on the now «traditional» methods of cluster and correlation-regression analysis. Without diminishing the merits of these methods, it should be noted that they are somewhat limited in identifying hidden structural connections and interdependencies in such a complex multidimensional phenomenon as informal employment. In order to substantiate the possibility of overcoming these limitations, the article proposes indicators of regional statistics that directly and indirectly characterize informal employment and also presents the possibilities of using the «random forest» method to identify groups of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that have similar macroeconomic factors of informal employment. The novelty of this method in terms of research objectives is that it allows one to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators of regional development on the level of informal employment, taking into account the implicit, not predetermined by the initial hypotheses, hierarchical relationships of factor indicators. Based on the generalization of the studies presented in the literature, as well as the authors’ statistical calculations using Rosstat data, the authors came to the conclusion about the high importance of macroeconomic parameters of regional development and systemic relationships of macroeconomic indicators in substantiating the differentiation of the informal level across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Intihar ◽  
Tomaž Kramberger ◽  
Dejan Dragan
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Dynamic Factor Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.

Some Issues of Morbidity with Temporary Incapacity for Work in the Ural Federal District

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
AS Shastin ◽  
VG Gazimova ◽  
OL Malykh ◽  
TS Ustyugova ◽  
TM Tsepilova
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Common ◽  
Working Age Population

Introduction: In the context of a decreasing size of the working-age population, monitoring of the health status and disease incidence in this cohort shall be one of the most important tasks of public and occupational health professionals. Health risk management for the working population in the Russian Federation requires complete and reliable data on its morbidity, especially in view of the fact that its average age demonstrates a stable growth. It is, therefore, crucial to have precise and consistent information about the morbidity of the working-age population. Objective: The study aimed to assess incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: We reviewed data on disease incidence rates published by the Federal State Statistics Service in the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information, Section 15.12, Causes of Temporary Disability, and Section 2.9.I.4, Federal Project for Public Health Promotion. The constituent entities under study were ranked according to the number of cases and days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers and E.L. Notkin scale was used to determine grade the incidence. The statistical analysis was performed using STATISTICA 10 software. Long-term average values of certain indicators, median values, standard deviation (σ) and coefficients of variation were estimated. The difference in the indices was assessed using the Mann-Whitney test. Results: Compared to 2010, incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District in 2019 demonstrated a significant decline. The sharp drop was observed in 2015. We also established that the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information contains contradictory information on disease incidence. Conclusion: It is expedient to consider the issue of revising guidelines for organization of federal statistical monitoring of morbidity with temporary incapacity for work and to include this indicator in the system of public health monitoring.

scholarly journals The labor potential reproduction in depopulation period of 2019–2035 and the compensating role of migration

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
A. V. Topilin ◽  
O. D. Vorob’eva ◽  
A. S. Maksimova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Time Migration ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labor Potential

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth.  

Labor Market in the Light of Pension Reform

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-78
Author(s):  
Л. Аникеева ◽  
L. Anikeeva ◽  
Александра Митрофанова ◽  
Aleksandra Mitrofanova
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
The State ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

The article deals with issues related to the change in the situation on the labor market in connection with the new pension reform. The mechanism of the impact of the conditions and standards of pensions on the state of the labor market is revealed. Special attention is paid to increasing tension in the labor market due to the increase in the retirement age. The procedure for raising the retirement age is revealed, categories of workers are identified that will not be affected by raising the retirement age or who are entitled to receive an old-age insurance pension of a higher retirement age. Consideration is given to aspects related to changes in the conditions and procedure for granting unemployment benefits, including new conditions for granting benefits to persons in pre-retirement age. Particular attention is paid to the disclosure of the factors that determine the possibility of raising the retirement age, and the justification of measures that contribute to leveling the negative effects of the increase.

scholarly journals The Impact of Ageing Population on Economic Growth in South Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
D.K.Y. Abeywardhana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
The South ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact

The share of working age population has declined all over the world. It is forecasted that this will continue for the coming years in all countries in South Asia. Low growth in working age population in South Asia will be effecting negatively for the economic growth. This paper studies whether the South Asia 2050 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between South Asian countries. The results show that degreasing working age population is the main challenge the South Asian region faces. Further it shows that growth in GDP mainly depend on the demographic change. Population who contributed the economic development become maturing and dependents of their children. The consumption of the ageing population is very high as of higher spending on healthcare facilities. This effect badly on the economic growth in the region and cause lots of challenges to the nations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document