Study on Urban Emergency Event Forecast - Taking Urban Traffic Accident in China as Example

2013 ◽  
Vol 734-737 ◽  
pp. 1629-1636
Author(s):  
Di Lu ◽  
Yao Wu Wang ◽  
Xiang Fei Niu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Catastrophe Model ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Population Potential ◽  
Emergency Events ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Urban Emergency Events

In China, with the accelerated urbanization and the rapid growth of urban population, potential urban emergency risk factors gradually increased. Therefore, how to forecast the urban emergency events seems to be important. This study elaborated the mechanism of catastrophe theory and grey forecast method, established the grey cusp catastrophe model according to further research. An empirical analysis on Chinese urban traffic accident forecast was made by this model through four indicators: the number of occurrences, the number of deaths, the number of people injured and direct economic losses. By operating the model with data from 2002 to 2006, the accuracy is verified. Based on data from 2002 to 2011, the model result shows that the next traffic accident occurrence catastrophe will occur in 2015-2016, the next death number catastrophe will occur in 2012-2013, the next injured number catastrophe will occur in 2018-2019, the next direct economic loss catastrophe will occur in 2014-2015.

Research on Evaluation Models and Empirical Analysis of Earthquake Disaster Losses in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 67 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 534-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kepei Men ◽  
Lei Cui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effect ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Research On Evaluation ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Grey Clustering ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss

Earthquake disasters occurred very frequently in China. As a result, to evaluate the losses has important social value and economic effect. This paper focuses on the assessment of economic losses of earthquake disasters which is divided into two parts: direct economic loss and indirect economic loss. First, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is used to determine the distribution of the earthquake losses per year in China, fitting the frequency of earthquake that happened per month in China. Second, the grey clustering method and principal component analysis (PCA) are applied, respectively, for direct economic loss rating and indirect economic loss rating. Finally, the economic loss generated by the earthquakes which happened from 2006 to 2009 in China is evaluated, and eight earthquakes are rated based on the comprehensive economic loss.

Study on the Evaluation Models of Direct Economic Losses in Urban Flood Disasters

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 4878-4882
Author(s):  
De Cai Kong ◽  
Feng Ping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Loss Rate ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
General Process ◽  
Evaluation Models ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Direct Economic Losses ◽  
Disaster System

Based on disaster system theory, flood risk assessment was conducted in regard to natural properties of hazard and environment as well as socioeconomics of hazard-affected bodies. The general process of economic loss evaluation in flood was consisted of two parts, namely the evaluation of pre-disaster value of hazard-affected bodies and the determination of direct economic loss rate in the flood disaster. At last, the evaluation models of direct economic losses in urban flood were established.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Economic Loss of 2018/2019 African Swine Fever outbreaks in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shibing You ◽  
Tingyi Liu ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Xue Zhao ◽  
Bi Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation System ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Swine Industry ◽  
Indicator Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
The Cost

Abstract This study evaluates the total economic loss due to the outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We propose a systematic framework to assess both the direct economic loss on the Chinses breeding industry and indirect economic loss on other sectors. Our evaluation system integrates various statistical analysis methods by applying the cost-loss model and substitution indicator method to calculate direct economic losses and using input-output (IO) model to estimate indirect economic losses. The proposed method provides an innovative and commonly applicable way to deal with the missing data that needs to be adjusted and repaired to be used for economic shock evaluation. We find that total economic loss caused by ASF is 224.768 billion yuan consisting of 99.042 billion yuan direct economic loss of the breeding industry and 125.726 billion yuan indirect economic loss of other industries. Our findings suggest that the overall impact of ASF on China's national economy is relatively small, mainly local and short-term impacts on the swine industry.

scholarly journals Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhui Liu ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Rumei Tang ◽  
Mengqi Ye ◽  
Jing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Precipitation Threshold ◽  
The Mainland Of China ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Province Level

<p>Exploring precipitation threshold from an economic loss perspective is critical for rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment under climate change. Based on the daily gridded precipitation dataset and direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and flood disasters in the mainland of China, this paper first filtered a relatively reasonable disaster-triggering daily precipitation threshold (DDPT) combination according to the relationship between extreme precipitation days and direct economic loss (DEL) rates at province level and then comprehensively analyzed the spatial landscape of DDPT across China. The results show that (1) the daily precipitation determined by the combination of a 10 mm fixed threshold and 99.3th percentile is recognized as the optimal DDPT of rainstorm and flood disasters, and the correlation coefficient between annual extreme precipitation days and DEL rates reached 0.45 (p < 0.01). (2) The optimal DDPT decreases from southeast (up to 87 mm) to northwest (10 mm) across China, and the DDPTs of 7 out of 31 provinces are lower than 25 mm, while 5 provinces are higher than 50 mm on average. These results suggest that DDPTs exist with large spatial heterogeneity across China, and adopting regional differentiated DDPT is helpful for conducting effective disaster risk analysis.</p>

Discussion Based on Small PABX Lightning Overvoltage

2014 ◽  
Vol 986-987 ◽  
pp. 1946-1949
Author(s):  
Guo Feng Sun ◽  
Yan Bai
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply System ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
National Standards ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Lightning Protection ◽  
General Will ◽  
Material Resources ◽  
Protection Devices ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Surge Protection

Construction of large and medium-sized program-controlled switches be placed strictly in accordance with national standards Professional program-controlled switchboard in the room, general will not be affected by lightning overvoltage and harm of operating over voltage. And small PABX are commonly used for smaller enterprises and institutions, such enterprises are unlikely to build professional for program-controlled switchboard room. Mostly I placed it on the corner of the Office or the Office area, convenient pin-outs. As a result of this device is undersized and lower prices, lightning protection concepts and enterprises and institutions to understand enough, it will not attach too much importance to. During the thunderstorm-prone season often makes their lightning overvoltage damage, direct economic loss was not too large, but the indirect economic losses are direct losses many times. This article in view of the characteristics of this equipment, according to the wiring form of power supply system using proper surge protection devices, equipotential bonding, shielding and grounding, and other combinations of several methods, and do not put too much financial and material resources to avoid accidents from happening, the various types of losses to a minimum.

scholarly journals Urban Seismic Risk Assessment by Integrating Direct Economic Loss and Loss of Statistical Life: An Empirical Study in Xiamen, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 8154
Author(s):  
Shutian Zhou ◽  
Guofang Zhai ◽  
Yijun Shi ◽  
Yuwen Lu
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Local Resident ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Characteristic Earthquakes ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Urban Seismic Risk

The growing densities of human and economic activities in cities lead to more severe consequences when a catastrophe such as an earthquake occurs. This study on urban seismic risk evaluation is carried out from the perspective of the direct loss caused by disasters in urban areas, including the measurement of both the expected direct economic loss and loss of life in the face of characteristic earthquakes. Aiming to estimate, quantify and visualize the earthquake risk in each unit of urban space, this research proposes to assess urban seismic risk by integrating the direct economic loss and the loss of statistical life in a disaster, with consideration of diverse earthquake frequencies. Empirical research of the proposed assessment framework and corresponding models is then conducted to measure urban seismic risk in Xiamen, China. Key findings of the case study include the expected direct economic losses and the expected number of deaths in three characteristic earthquakes, their estimated spatial distributions, the average loss of the value of a statistical life (VSL) of one average local resident and the overall seismic risk distributions in Xiamen.

Fertiliser evenness - losses and costs: A study on the economic benefits of uniform applications of fertiliser

1999 ◽  
pp. 215-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Horrell ◽  
A.K. Metherell ◽  
S. Ford ◽  
C. Doscher
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Fertiliser Application ◽  
Seed Crops

Over two million tonnes of fertiliser are applied to New Zealand pastures and crops annually and there is an increasing desire by farmers to ensure that the best possible economic return is gained from this investment. Spreading distribution measurements undertaken by Lincoln Ventures Ltd (LVL) have identified large variations in the evenness of fertiliser application by spreading machines which could lead to a failure to achieve optimum potential in some crop yields and to significant associated economic losses. To quantify these losses, a study was undertaken to calculate the effect of uneven fertiliser application on crop yield. From LVL's spreader database, spread patterns from many machines were categorised by spread pattern type and by coefficient of variation (CV). These patterns were then used to calculate yield losses when they were combined with the response data from five representative cropping and pastoral situations. Nitrogen fertiliser on ryegrass seed crops shows significant production losses at a spread pattern CV between 30% and 40%. For P and S on pasture, the cumulative effect of uneven spreading accrues, until there is significant economic loss occurring by year 3 for both the Waikato dairy and Southland sheep and beef systems at CV values between 30% and 40%. For nitrogen on pasture, significant loss in a dairy system occurs at a CV of approximately 40% whereas for a sheep and beef system it is at a CV of 50%, where the financial return from nitrogen application has been calculated at the average gross revenue of the farming system. The conclusion of this study is that the current Spreadmark standards are a satisfactory basis for defining the evenness requirements of fertiliser applications in most circumstances. On the basis of Spreadmark testing to date, more than 50% of the national commercial spreading fleet fails to meet the standard for nitrogenous fertilisers and 40% fails to meet the standard for phosphatic fertilisers.Keywords: aerial spreading, crop response, economic loss, fertiliser, ground spreading, striping, uneven application, uneven spreading, yield loss

scholarly journals Quantification of PV Power and Economic Losses Due to Soiling in Qatar

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3364
Author(s):  
Amr Zeedan ◽  
Abdulaziz Barakeh ◽  
Khaled Al-Fakhroo ◽  
Farid Touati ◽  
Antonio S. P. Gonzales
Keyword(s):  
Output Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Energy Yield ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Dust Density

Soiling losses of photovoltaic (PV) panels due to dust lead to a significant decrease in solar energy yield and result in economic losses; this hence poses critical challenges to the viability of PV in smart grid systems. In this paper, these losses are quantified under Qatar’s harsh environment. This quantification is based on experimental data from long-term measurements of various climatic parameters and the output power of PV panels located in Qatar University’s Solar facility in Doha, Qatar, using a customized measurement and monitoring setup. A data processing algorithm was deliberately developed and applied, which aimed to correlate output power to ambient dust density in the vicinity of PV panels. It was found that, without cleaning, soiling reduced the output power by 43% after six months of exposure to an average ambient dust density of 0.7 mg/m3. The power and economic loss that would result from this power reduction for Qatar’s ongoing solar PV projects has also been estimated. For example, for the Al-Kharasaah project power plant, similar soiling loss would result in about a 10% power decrease after six months for typical ranges of dust density in Qatar’s environment; this, in turn, would result in an 11,000 QAR/h financial loss. This would pose a pressing need to mitigate soiling effects in PV power plants.

scholarly journals Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jieling Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Ripple Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

On Analysis Economic Loss Appraisal Method for Geological Disasters

2012 ◽  
Vol 594-597 ◽  
pp. 2272-2276
Author(s):  
Shi Gui Li ◽  
Qing Lin Yi ◽  
Juan Juan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Geological Disasters ◽  
Effective Evaluation ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Geological Disaster ◽  
Appraisal Method ◽  
Qianjiangping Landslide ◽  
China’S Economy

China is one of the most serious national which does harm to geological disasters, and the geological disasters have effect on China’s economy. Therefore, the effective evaluation for the economic losses caused by geological disasters has some reference value. This paper mainly introduces the geological disaster economic losses structure drawing and evaluated methods which include human capital method, shadow valuation method, market valuation method, investigation appraisal method and coefficient of proportionality method, and analyzes different economic losses should adopt different appraisal method. And take the Qianjiangping landslide for instant, this paper introduces how to evaluate landslide disasters economic loss. The idea and method have certain guiding significance to geological disaster economic losses evaluation.

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