scholarly journals Relevence and Effectiveness of Mathematical Models Dealing with Covid-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 130-133
Author(s):  
Dr. Uma Shankar Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Real World ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Face ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Insight Into

How does COVID-19 pandemic affect the India? How many people can be hit in a state and how many of them will succumb to the disease? When is it going to peak? How long should the government continue with the lockdown? What is the damage to the economy and what is its impact on each sector? These are some of the questions that haunt not only the decision makers but every sensible people in India. Mathematical models developed by mathematicians and epidemiologists has come to assist decision makers in evaluating the effects of countermeasures to an epidemic before they actually deploy them. The model could give political and beuricatic person's critical insights into the best steps they could take to counter the spread of disease in the face of pandemics. Mathematicians use modeling to represent, analyze and make predictions or otherwise provide insight into real world phenomena. Real world scenarios can be designed into a mathematical model to bring clarity to big messy questions amid fast changing variables. These models aim to make simplifying assumptions in order to arrive at tractable equations. Dealing with the novel coronavirus is an unprecedented situation which the world could not have foreseen. In order to track the COVID-19 pandemic, make predictions about the disease's progression and take decisions, as of now, the government is solely dependent on data from doctors and health workers.

scholarly journals Differential equation analysis on COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-11
Author(s):  
Bin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: An infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus called COVID-19 has raged across the world since December 2019. The novel coronavirus first appeared in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to Asia and now many countries around the world are affected by the epidemic. The deaths of many patients, including medical staff, caused social panic, media attention, and high attention from governments and world organizations. Today, with the joint efforts of the government, the doctors and all walks of life, the epidemic in Hubei Province has been brought under control, preventing its spread from affecting the lives of the people. Because of its rapid spread and serious consequences, this sudden novel coronary pneumonia epidemic has become an important social hot spot event. Through the analysis of the novel coronary pneumonia epidemic situation, we can also have a better understanding of sudden infectious diseases in the future, so that we can take more effective response measures, establish a truly predictable and provide reliable and sufficient information for prevention and control model. Methods: We establish different models according to the different developments of the epidemic situation, different time points, and different response measures taken by the government. To be specific, during the period of 2020.1.23-2020.2.7, the traditional SIR model is adopted; during the period of 2020.2.8-2020.3.30, according to the scientific research results, it was considered that the novel coronary pneumonia has a latent period, so in the later phase of epidemic development, the government has effectively isolated patients, thus we adopt the SEIQR model accordingly. During the period of 2020.3.31-2020.5.16, because more asymptomatic infected people were found, we use the SEIQLR model to fit. Finally, through a SEIR simulator, considering the susceptible number, the latent number, the infected number, the cured number, death number and other factors, we simulate the change of various numbers of people from the beginning to the next 180 days of novel coronary pneumonia. Findings: The results based on the analysis of differential equations and kinetic models show that through the prediction of the model established in the first phase, the epidemic situation of novel coronary pneumonia in Hubei Province was controlled at the end of March, which is in line with the actual situation. The rest of Hubei province, except for Wuhan, lifted control of the departure channel from 0:00 am on March 25, and Wuhan was also unblocked on April 8. Through the establishment of the second-phase model, it is found that the epidemic situation will reach its peak in mid-February. For example, the quarantine admission of the hospital declined after mid-February, which is inseparable from the measures to build square cabin hospitals in early February so that more and more patients can be admitted. The model established in the third phase shows that the epidemic had been completely controlled by the end of May, which is also in line with the reality. Because in mid-May, the Wuhan government conducted a nucleic acid test on all the citizens to screen for asymptomatic infected persons to fundamentally control the spread of novel coronary pneumonia. Interpretation: Hubei Province, as the center of the initial outbreak of novel coronary pneumonia, people were forced to be isolated at home during the Spring Festival, the most important Chinese holiday, and the whole society was in a state of suspension of work and study. The Chinese government had taken many measures in response to the epidemic, such as shutting down the city, vigorously building square cabin hospitals, and prohibiting people from gathering. At the beginning of May this year, the epidemic in Hubei Province was finally effectively controlled. For ordinary citizens, we should not cause unnecessary panic about the unknown novel coronavirus. Instead, we should fully understand and be familiar with this virus. In addition to the relevant medical knowledge, we should also understand the spread of infectious diseases through appropriate mathematical models. By mathematical models, we can understand the degree of harm of infectious diseases, when to control it, how to stop it, and use scientific views to reveal the original face of the novel coronavirus to the public without causing social panic.

scholarly journals Death in the Line of Duty: Caregivers in the Plague narratives

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Sinha ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Professional Ethics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Close Reading ◽  
The Novel ◽  
History Record ◽  
The Face ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Insight Into

The dystopian tropes in the plague narratives shift our gaze from the presence of professional ethics to the Gothic horror that unfolds subsequently. Yet whether it is the Great Plague of London in the year 1665, or the Novel Coronavirus in Mumbai in the year 2020, the rampant spread of the contagion and the associated dread bring into focus the selflessness of the caregivers, namely, the medical and the para-medic staff. Comparing the occurrences, one historical, the other still unfolding, this study examines the eery similarities that delineate contagion as metaphor, and the role of doctors in the pandemics. The aim is to find out what happens when the doctors stumble – to succumb to fear, to fall prey to diseases that flesh is subject to, or to violate the oath of Hippocrates. We intend to scrutinize if like soldiers on the battle-front, these frontline warriors also keep their tryst with death in the line of duty, or does History record otherwise. Whether the pestilence be classical or modern, the response of the caregivers is the cornerstone on which any society is grounded. The purpose of this study is to evaluate if courage in the face of disaster is still relevant in this age of anxiety, or does self-preservation win against ethics and morality. A close reading of Daniel Defoe’s A Journal of the Plague Year gives us an insight into the timelessness of such issues, especially in a world that is plagued with maladies of its own making.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

NEW INSPIRATION FROM CHINA'S PHILOSOPHY OF "UNITY OF MAN AND HEAVEN": CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
PU JINGXIN
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Human Society ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
New Type ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Ancient Chinese ◽  
Self Protection ◽  
Harmonious Community

Abstract: The danger of the novel coronavirus has not yet come to an end, and new variants have begun to attack the world. What philosophy should humankind’s strategy be based on when human society as a group is fighting against Covid-19, as the pandemic ravages the world? Unfortunately, political leaders of various countries have failed to achieve the overall awareness of attacking the pandemic for a shared future for mankind so far. In the face of the pandemic, mankind as a whole urgently needs to break through the narrow nation-oriented ideology of seeking only self-protection. The International Community should establish a new type of international cooperation featuring the concept of harmony of "all things under heaven as a unity". The international relations system dominated by the power ofwestern discourse is now in a bottleneck. The main aim of this article is to study the ancient Chinese wisdom of "the Unity of Man and Heaven" philosophy and build a global harmonious community. The author argues that the “export” of the aforementioned wisdom must be a priority for Chinese scholars. Keywords: Tao; Unity of Man and Heaven; Novel Coronavirus; Anthropocentrism; Harmony.

scholarly journals Mobility-Guided Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard Egwolf ◽  
O.P. Nicanor Austriaco
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
The Novel ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
National Capital ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The City

ABSTRACTCOVID-19 is a novel respiratory disease first identified in Wuhan, China, that is caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. To better understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, we have used real-time mobility data to modify the DELPHI Epidemiological Model recently developed at M.I.T., and to simulate the pandemic in Metro Manila. We have chosen to focus on the National Capital Region, not only because it is the nation’s demographic heart where over a tenth of the country’s population live, but also because it has been the epidemiological epicenter of the Philippine pandemic. Our UST CoV-2 model suggests that the government-imposed enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has successfully limited the spread of the pandemic. It is clear that the initial wave of the pandemic is flattening, though suppression of viral spread has been delayed by the local pandemics in the City of Manila and Quezon City. Our data also reveals that replacing the ECQ with a General Community Quarantine (GCQ) will increase the forecasted number of deaths in the nation’s capital unless rigorous tracing and testing can be implemented to prevent a second wave of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Investigation of the genetic variation in ACE2 on the structural recognition by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingyi Guo ◽  
Zhishan Chen ◽  
Yumin Xia ◽  
Weiqiang Lin ◽  
Hongzhi Li
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
S Protein ◽  
Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽  
Missense Variants ◽  
Catalytic Metal ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), through its surface spike glycoprotein (S-protein) recognition on the receptor Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in humans. However, it remains unclear how genetic variations in ACE2 may affect its function and structure, and consequently alter the recognition by SARS-CoV-2. Methods: We have systemically characterized missense variants in the gene ACE2 using data from the Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD; N = 141,456). To investigate the putative deleterious role of missense variants, six existing functional prediction tools were applied to evaluate their impact. We further analyzed the structural flexibility of ACE2 and its protein-protein interface with the S-protein of SARS-CoV-2 using our developed Legion Interfaces Analysis (LiAn) program.Results: Here, we characterized a total of 12 ACE2 putative deleterious missense variants. Of those 12 variants, we further showed that p.His378Arg could directly weaken the binding of catalytic metal atom to decrease ACE2 activity and p.Ser19Pro could distort the most important helix to the S-protein. Another seven missense variants may affect secondary structures (i.e. p.Gly211Arg; p.Asp206Gly; p.Arg219Cys; p.Arg219His, p.Lys341Arg, p.Ile468Val, and p.Ser547Cys), whereas p.Ile468Val with AF = 0.01 is only present in Asian.Conclusions: We provide strong evidence of putative deleterious missense variants in ACE2 that are present in specific populations, which could disrupt the function and structure of ACE2. These findings provide novel insight into the genetic variation in ACE2 which may affect the SARS-CoV-2 recognition and infection, and COVID-19 susceptibility and treatment.

scholarly journals Analysis on Present Mathematical Model for Predicting the Crop Production

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 168-170
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Real World ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Government Website

India is a worldwide agriculture business powerhouse. Future of agriculture-based products depends on the crop production. A mathematical model might be characterized as a lot of equations that speak to the conduct of a framework. By using mathematical model in agriculture field, we can predict the production of crop in particular area. There are various factors affecting crops such as Rainfall, GHG Emissions, Temperature, Urbanization, climate, humidity etc. A mathematical model is a simplified representation of a real-world system. It forms the system using mathematical principles in the form of a condition or a set of conditions. Suppose we need to increase the crop production, at that time the mathematical model plays a major role and our work can be easier, more significant by using the mathematical model. Through the mathematical model we predict the crop production in upcoming years. .AI, ML, IOT play a major role to predict the future of agriculture, but without mathematical models it is not possible to predict crop production accurately. To solve the real-world agriculture problem, mathematical models play a major role for accurate results. Correlation Analysis, Multiple Regression analysis and fuzzy logic simulation standards have been utilized for building a grain production benefit depending model from crop production. Prediction of crop is beneficiary to the farmer to analyze the crop management. By using the present agriculture data set which is available on the government website, we can build a mathematical model.

Documentary Goes Popular

2019 ◽  
pp. 61-102
Author(s):  
Angela J. Aguayo
Keyword(s):  
Social Change ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Structure ◽  
Documentary History ◽  
Creative Force ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Insight Into

While the documentary genre has frequently been conceptualized as a democratic tool with civic potential, the ways popular advocacy documentary functions in the process of social change is unclear. We need more information about the relationship between documentary agitation and collective organizing for social change, as well as about how this function shifts with the visibility of popular attention. Mainstream commercial culture is more than at odds with a commons of democratic exchange. The advocacy film is a time-honored tradition in documentary history, made specifically for the aims of democratic exchange. This type of film is produced for political causes by activists or advocates who are not closely connected with the government or decision makers. Often the director is constructed as a central creative force. Central figures usually function as surrogates for the film in public interviews and engagements; the speakers are often connected to sponsoring organizations. In this chapter, I first address the historical linage of popular documentary and its movement from the vernacular to the popular. Then, I examine the ways popular advocacy documentary in popular form has morphed in recent years, providing insight into the potential of the genre to make contact with the political structure.

scholarly journals Information transparency: How do Department of Library and Information Science students at South Valley University perceive the state’s dealing with the novel coronavirus outbreak?

2020 ◽  
pp. 096100062096568
Author(s):  
Essam Mansour
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Library And Information Science ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Information Transparency ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

This study proposes to investigate the knowledge and perception of students in the Department of Library and Information Science at South Valley University in Upper Egypt about the state’s dealing with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 that has been detected in Egypt in February 2020. A quantitative research approach was adopted in the form of a survey. The target population of the study included students ( N = 295) of the fourth year of Department of Library and Information Science at South Valley University, of which 253 responded to the study questionnaire, representing 85.8% of the total number. The study found that there is no significant relationship between the students’ gender and other variables of the study according to the statistics used. It also showed that the most popular information sources mentioned by Department of Library and Information Science students to get information related to the coronavirus were social media and the Internet/Web. The publication/dissemination of information and its availability were badly perceived by the students. About one-third of them questioned the government’s ability to deal with the novel coronavirus. They highly believe in the role of information transparency in fighting both administrative and human corruption. The students emphasized the citizens’ right to criticize the government when it does not comply with the transparency, as well as the right to access any information owned by it in any formats at any time. They were dissatisfied with the government’s ability to retrieve information, organize, store, have legislations, and own a good database of citizens, as well as its capabilities, in terms of transparency, competence, benevolence, honesty, accuracy, efficiency/effectiveness, practicality, and confidence, in relation to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Finally, the study indicated that barriers, such as the spread of administrative and human corruption, security restrictions, and the fragility of the freedom to disclose government information, were highly significant by the surveyed students.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a new challenge in untreated wastewater

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1005-1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Kumar Chaudhry ◽  
Payal Sachdeva
Keyword(s):  
Human Health ◽  
Human Exposure ◽  
Etiologic Agent ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Successful Management ◽  
Virus Shedding ◽  
Untreated Wastewater ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 12 March 2020. As of 27 May 2020, WHO statistics exhibited that more than five million confirmed cases have been reported globally. Much remains unclear about the fate and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus 2019, in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 infection, the etiologic agent of the current COVID-19 pandemic, is followed by virus shedding in the stool. The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, therefore, enables monitoring of the prevalence of infections among the population through wastewater-based epidemiology. This review discusses the possible spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater and its impact on human health, if any. The information and resources outlined in this paper are based on recently published studies and provide information to decision-makers on the successful management of COVID-19 and reduce the risk of human exposure to COVID-19. Additionally, systems-based approaches to curtail COVID-19 spread are also discussed.

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