Sector Rotation with Leading Macroeconomic Indicators

2022 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manan Jain
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Durables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Degree Of Association ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Sector Rotation

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine whether the theory of sector rotation has been empirically valid in the Indian equity market, during the period April, 2000 to March, 2020. The time period has been divided into many sub-periods according to the real GDP growth rate and the annualized returns of eleven stock market indices have been analyzed in different periods. Going forward, leading macroeconomic indicators, which coincide with overall economy, have been taken and their association with stock market indices have been analyzed through statistical measures to assess any possible forecasting. In the first part of the study, cyclical and non-cyclical sectors have been found to beat the benchmark index during periods of growth and stagnancy, respectively, but no particular ordinality was observed. Amongst the leading economic variables, M3 Money Supply was found to have high degree of association with some indices, namely Sensex, Healthcare, CDGS, Consumer Durables and IT, but no linear relation was observed.

scholarly journals Consistency Of The Stock Market In Anticipating Economic Cycles

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence W. Franz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Historical Evidence ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
High Degree

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper examines how consistent the stock market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 Index, has been in anticipating the effect economic contractions and expansions have on dividends/earnings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>In 22 of 26 instances, the S&amp;P 500 reached a peak and trough prior to the beginning and ending of 13 economic contractions during the period 1929-2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Changes in dividends/earnings are directly related to economic activity as measured by changes in real GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>An economic recession or expansion lowers or raises the intrinsic value of the expected dividend/earnings stream.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Actual stock prices, as measured by the S&amp;P 500, change in the same direction as the change in intrinsic value with the historical evidence showing the high degree of consistency the stock market has in anticipating economic contractions and expansions.</span></span></p>

scholarly journals What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, China

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110335
Author(s):  
Li Peng ◽  
Qianyu Li ◽  
Wei Deng ◽  
Ying Liu
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Group ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Statistics ◽  
Investment In Fixed Assets ◽  
Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake

Despite the economic statistics from recent years indicating outstanding economic recovery in disaster-affected areas after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, the causes of these macro-economic changes remain ambiguous. The Chinese Government set up the counterpart assistance policy to aid post-disaster reconstruction after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in 2008; however, whether the changes seen in the economic statistics can be attributed to this policy remains unclear. This article uses the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effects of counterpart assistance on economic development in disaster areas. Thirty-nine severely affected counties were chosen as research objects and divided into a treatment group (18 recipient counties) and a control group (non-recipient counties). Empirical results indicate the counterpart assistance policy helped to significantly improve the real GDP and GDP growth rate per capita in the treatment group. Counterpart assistance influenced the real GDP principally by increasing investment in fixed assets, employment, urbanization level, and fiscal expenditure. The findings of this study deepen our understanding of counterpart assistance within the Chinese context.

scholarly journals Analysis of Real GDP, Imports and Exports of Indian Ocean RIM Association Member Nations

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-100
Author(s):  
Manbir Singh, Dr. Jasdeep Kaur Dhami
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Islamic Republic ◽  
Association Member ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean woven together by transmission of trade, commands the control of majority of the world’s cargo ships, one third of the worlds cargo traffic and two thirds of total world’s oil shipments. The main aim of this paper is to analyse Real GDP, Imports and Exports of Indian Ocean RIM Association Member Nations. Time period of the study is from 1980 to 2019.  Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) contributes 11.7 per cent share in world exports, in case of member nations highest share is of Singapore 2.1 per cent  followed by India and UAE 1.7 per cent, Australia 1.5 per cent, Thailand and Malaysia 1.3 per cent. Indonesia, South Africa, Bangladesh, Oman, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Sri Lanka the share in world exports is less than 1 per cent.  

scholarly journals INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&#38;D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&#38;D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

scholarly journals UKRAINIAN STOCK MARKET: STATE AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (87) ◽  
Author(s):  
Okseniuk Kateryna ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Market State ◽  
Legislative Framework ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Securities Trading

The article is devoted to the study of the current state, problems and prospects of development of the Ukrainian stock market. It is proved that the stock market is a tool for implementing the state's Innovation Policy and a priority factor in mobilizing financial and capital resources. Stock market commodities are securities (stocks, bonds, etc.). Trends, features of functioning and development of the Ukrainian stock market are analysed. The analysis of the main indicators of exchanges, the structure and volume of exchange contracts with securities is carried out. The structural distribution of exchange contracts by trading organizers is established. The analysis of operations with securities on the organized market, unorganized market and stock exchanges of the country is carried out. The largest volume of trading on financial instruments on trade organizers in 2019 was recorded with government bonds of Ukraine – UAH 295 billion according to the National Securities and stock market Commission, the exchange market during 2019 saw consolidation of securities trading on two stock exchanges “Perspektyva” and “PFTS Ukraine Stock Exchange”: 98.7% of the value of exchange contracts. Analysis of the main indicators that determine the state of the stock market has shown that the modern securities market of Ukraine is characterized by an extremely high degree of fragmentation, limited liquidity and a variety of types of securities, which, in turn, are the main obstacles to the development of the stock market and the capital market as a whole. Attention is focused on the main problems that hinder the functioning of the stock market. It is proved that the development of the stock market is hindered by: insufficient competitiveness of the domestic stock market; imperfect tax incentives for market development; low level of corporate governance development; imperfect regulatory and legislative framework of Ukraine; low liquidity and capitalization. The directions of development of the stock market of Ukraine are proposed: improving the efficiency of regulation of issuers; stimulating the inflow of investment to the stock market; ensuring reliable and efficient functioning of the market infrastructure; ensuring the functioning of the unified state policy for stimulating the improvement of the investment climate.

scholarly journals Factor analysis of the Lithuanian equity market indices

2009 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Danilenko
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Components Method ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Stock Indexes

Statistical measures that can reproduce the state of the stock market and the tendencies of its change dynamics are the stock indexes. Having in mind the more complicated state of the finance system it is important to answer the question of what impacts the fluctuations of the stock prices. The article discusses various factors that impact the fluctuations of the Lithuanian stock index OMXV ; also stock index factor analysis is performed. Factors are determined using the main components method.

scholarly journals Forecasting stock returns on the Amman Stock Exchange: Do neural networks outperform linear regressions?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 280-296
Author(s):  
Abdel Razzaq Al Rababa’a ◽  
Zaid Saidat ◽  
Raed Hendawi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Amman Stock Exchange ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Ann Models

Different models have been used in the finance literature to predict the stock market returns. However, it remains an open question whether non-linear models can outperform linear models while providing accurate predictions for future returns. This study examines the prediction of the non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) models against the baseline linear regression models. This study aims specifically to compare the prediction performance of regression models with different specifications and static and dynamic ANN models. Thus, the analysis was conducted on a growing market, namely the Amman Stock Exchange. The results show that the trading volume and interest rates on loans tend to explain the monthly returns the most, compared to other predictors in the regressions. Moreover, incorporating more variables is not found to help in explaining the fluctuations in the stock market returns. More importantly, using the root mean square error (RMSE), as well as the mean absolute error statistical measures, the static ANN becomes the most preferred model for forecasting. The associated forecasting errors from these metrics become equal to 0.0021 and 0.0005, respectively. Lastly, the analysis conducted with the dynamic ANN model produced the highest RMSE value of 0.0067 since November 2018 following the amendment to the Jordanian income tax law. The same observation is also seen since the emerging of the COVID-19 outbreak (RMSE = 0.0042).

scholarly journals The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors In Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alush Kryeziu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

In this paper will be discussed the main concepts and trends of the macro-fiscal indicators in economic growth, as well as their importance in the economic development of different countries, with special emphasis in Kosovo. One of the aims of this paper is to define and explain the connection between macroeconomic indicators with specific emphasis: the public debt, budget deficit and inflation on economic growth. In order to analyze this impact of variables in economic growth, the targeted time period of research is the period from 2004 to 2014. While the data taken regarding Kosovo were obtained from the year 2005, due to the fact that earlier the data have been limited because of the developments in which Kosovo went through. The model that best represents the link between macro-fiscal indicators on economic growth is the linear regression as an econometric model. We will have the opportunity to see and interpret these data. The overall results have emerged in accordance with theoretical discussions presented, but this relationship has not turned out to be very strong because the coefficients acquired did not have great explanatory skills for economic phenomena.

scholarly journals Understanding the Interdependency between the Nifty 50 Future Index and the Advanced Future Stock Market through Econometrics

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3660-3664
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Condition ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bidirectional Movement ◽  
High Degree

In recent times the stock market is accepted as a tool to measure the economic condition of a nation. It is found that the Indian financial market as highly volatile due to the lower value of rupees in foreign exchange with the dollar. This motivated the researchers to measure the interdependencies of [Nifty 50 future (India), Nikkei 225(Japan), NASDAQ 100 Futures (USA), Dow Jones 30 (USA), SSEC (China), Hang Seng Future (Hong Kong), and FTSE 100 (London)]. The analysis covers monthly stock prices for a period of 10years from April 2008 to March 2018. The measurement of interdependencies is studied through granger causality and correlation after the confirmation of the non-normality of data and stationary of data. The result shows a high degree of correlation between NASDAQ and Dow Jones shows 98.76% followed by 96.89% between Nifty 50 future and NASDAQ. The co-movement result of Nifty 50 future through granger causality states Nifty 50 future can explain the future stock market of Nikkei (Japan) and SSEC (China) and the Hang Seng future (Hong Kong) has a bidirectional movement with Nifty 50 futures. The study is useful for the investors to identify the interdependencies of the indices and understand the movement in a significant manner.

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