scholarly journals Forecast of the birth rate and prevalence of the population of subjects of the Russian Federation from the position of assessment of their reproductive potential

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 507-513
Author(s):  
Ravil U. Khabriev ◽  
Elmira N. Mingazova ◽  
Vasil B. Ziatdinov ◽  
Ulyana M. Lebedeva ◽  
Tatyana N. Shigabutdinova ◽  
...  

Introduction. At present, negative trends in medical and demographic indicators continue to persist in the regions of the Russian Federation, which is seen as a consequence of a decrease in the number of young people due to the demographic “hole” of the late 20th century and an increase in the incidence of the population, especially adolescence. Therefore, to develop programs for the formation and protection of the population’s reproductive health, it is of no small importance to identify the patterns of morbidity rates in the population to determine the reproductive potential of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Purpose. Study the trend of population morbidity, assessment of the relationship and medium-term predicted values of the birth rate and incidence of the population of certain constituent entities of the Russian Federation to assess their reproductive potential. Material and methods: statistical materials of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in the sections “Demography” and “Healthcare”. The analysis of the dynamics of birth rate indicators and morbidity of the population was carried out. Predictive models for fertility and morbidity of the population were built based on one-factor linear regression, where the birth rate was taken as the dependent variable, and the primary morbidity was taken as the independent variable. Results. The article presents a dynamic analysis of the birth rate, the morbidity rate of the adult, child and adolescent population in four studied territories: the Republic of Tatarstan, Sakha (Yakutia), Dagestan and the Kostroma region. It was revealed that in all regions, there is a decrease in fertility rates, starting from 2014-2015. Conclusion. Based on regression models, a forecast of the birth rate was compiled, which shows that if the existing trends continue, by 2024 relative to 2018, there will be a decrease in the birth rate in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) by 1.2 per 1,000 population, in the Republic of Dagestan - by 0.6 per 1,000 people, in the Kostroma region - by 0.5 per 1,000 people. However, in the Republic of Tatarstan, the indicator is forecasted to be higher than in 2018 - by 0.6 per 1,000 people.

Author(s):  
E.I. Polozova ◽  
I.E. Trokhina ◽  
O.G. Radaykina

The purpose of the work is to analyze the incidence of gastroduodenal ulcer in the Republic of Mordovia in 2008–2017, and to give regional medical and social assessment of the pathology. Materials and Methods. The authors analyzed the data of the Scientific Research Institute for Organization and Informatization of Healthcare of the Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation and the Regional office of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Mordovia on the incidence of peptic ulcer disease in the Republic of Mordovia between 2008 and 2017. Results. The paper shows that in the Republic of Mordovia gastroduodenal ulcer is a common disease. The overall morbidity rate in the Republic of Mordovia in 2008–2017 was lower than in the Russian Federation, but it was one of the highest among the Volga region districts. The highest rates of overall morbidity rate of gastroduodenal ulcer were observed among the population of the Chamzinsky, Ichalkovsky, Torbeevsky and Tengushevsky districts. Between 2008–2017, the level of primary morbidity among the population of Mordovia as a whole was lower than the average rate in the districts. The highest rates of primary morbidity of the population were in the Ichalkovsky district of the Republic of Mordovia. Due to the current situation in the Republic of Mordovia, namely, the high rate of gastroduodenal ulcer, it is necessary to look for ways to solve the problem by means of systemic preventive measures. Such measures can influence social and psychological aspects of health of the entire population. Conclusions. Analysis of gastroduodenal ulcer rate in the Republic of Mordovia in 2008–2017 demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive target republican program on the reduction of the disease level, improvement of clinical examination as well as therapeutic and diagnostic measures aimed at increasing patients’ compliance during treatment and improving the quality of their life. Keywords: peptic ulcer, incidence, regional characteristics. Цель работы – провести анализ заболеваемости язвенной болезнью желудка и двенадцатиперстной кишки населения Республики Мордовия за 2008–2017 гг. и дать региональную медико-социальную оценку данной патологии. Материалы и методы. Проанализированы данные ФГУ «ЦНИИ организации и информатизации здравоохранения Минздравсоцразвития России» и территориального органа Федеральной службы государственной статистики по Республике Мордовия по заболеваемости язвенной болезнью в Республике Мордовия с 2008 по 2017 г. Результаты. В работе показано, что язвенная болезнь желудка и двенадцатиперстной кишки в Республике Мордовия является распространенным заболеванием. Уровень общей заболеваемости населения в Республике Мордовия в 2008–2017 гг. ниже, чем в РФ, но является одним из самых высоких среди регионов Приволжского округа. Наиболее высокие показатели общей заболеваемости язвенной болезнью желудка и двенадцатиперстной кишки всего населения отмечаются в Чамзинском, Ичалковском, Торбеевском и Теньгушевском районах. Уровень первичной заболеваемости всего населения по Мордовии в целом в течение 2008–2017 гг. был ниже, чем в среднем по районам. Наиболее высокие показатели первичной заболеваемости всего населения – в Ичалковском районе Республики Мордовия. В связи со сложившейся в Республике Мордовия ситуацией, а именно из-за высокой заболеваемости населения язвенной болезнью желудка и двенадцатиперстной кишки, необходимо искать пути решения данной проблемы на базе системных мер профилактики. Подобные меры способны оказать влияние на социальные и психологические аспекты здоровья всего проживающего населения. Выводы. Анализ заболеваемости язвенной болезнью желудка и двенадцатиперстной кишки в Республике Мордовия за 2008–2017 гг. демонстрирует целесообразность создания комплексной целевой республиканской программы по снижению уровня заболеваемости, совершенствованию организации диспансеризации, лечебных и диагностических мероприятий, направленных на увеличение комплаентности при проведении лечения и улучшение качества жизни пациентов. Ключевые слова: язвенная болезнь, заболеваемость, региональные особенности.


We studied the medical and demographic indicators in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the last 20 years (1998–2018). A decrease in the population by 4,7 % (р<0,01) was revealed in the Russian Federation in the period 1998–2008, 3,4 % decrease, followed by its growth by 2,8 % (р<0,01); a decrease in the number of rural population in the republic and an increase in the urban population were observed. By the beginning of 2019, in comparison with the 2003 data, an increase in the population by 1.9% (р<0,01), a decrease in the number of able-bodied people in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at the beginning of 2019, as compared to 1998, were revealed, by 8,2 %, in the Russian Federation – by 4,7 % (р<0,01). In the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) the birth rate remains high, the mortality rate is relatively low, and the natural population growth is maintained.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 174-181
Author(s):  
Lyudmila I. Nikonova ◽  
Albina I. Minakova

According to the Constitution of Russia, the Russian Federation is a federal state and consists of 85 equal subjects, which are characterized by a high degree of diverse conditions and the state of social and economic development. As an object of research of migration processes, the authors considered Mordovia, included in the Russian Federation on the rights of an autonomous republic in 1936. This region of the Volga Federal District is one of the important subjects of the Russian Federation, as it is endowed with extensive areas, developed industry, good ecology, hundreds of museums; it is characterized by a multi-ethnic population structure. The authors consider the main characteristics of spatial mobility of the Mordovian Territory population from the second half of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century. The main tendencies of migration processes development are described. Much attention is paid to the historical nature of migration, based on scientific research and state statistics. Formation of polyethnicity of the Mordovian Republic developed historically due to different factors and events. Events of the Second World War, which provoked refugee from Western countries to the regions of Russia, location of camps with war prisoners in the territory of the Republic, industrialization and development of industrial enterprises, which required an influx of foreign specialists and workers in imported equipment maintenance, job placement after graduation from higher educational institutions of the USSR fraternal countries, the change of social status: admission of international students, interethnic marriages. The factors of adaptation of displaced persons in the aspect of socio-cultural interaction with local residents in the Republic of Mordovia are of particular importance. The multifaceted study of polyethnicity in the Mordovian Republic actualizes the historical analysis, which shows the role played by the representatives of foreign peoples in forming the polyethnicity of the region, for which the authors provide statistical data of the All-Union censuses of the population of 1959, 1970 and 1979, the All-Russian census of 2002 and 2010, as well as archival materials, which are located in the Central State Archives of the Republic of Mordovia.


Author(s):  
Anna V. Fomina ◽  
Fatima G. Dzidzarija ◽  
Evgenia V. Bivol

Background: Due to a quantitative decrease in the demographic reserve and a qualitative decrease in the reproductive potential of the country, protecting the reproductive health of women in Russia has now become an emergency situation. The obstetric and gynecological service is of major importance in maintaining reproductive health and conducting a comprehensive demographic policy. This study aimed to assess the dynamics of gynecological morbidity in the Russian Federation, the Central Federal District, the city of Moscow, and the organization of stationary gynecological care. Material and methods: The official statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Health of Russia for 20092018, as well as data from copies of the medical records (medical history, records of patients discharged from the hospital) of patients who received treatment in a gynecological day patient facility between 2015 and 2017. Results: A decrease in the number of gynecological beds by 32.2% over 10 years was noted. At the same time, the level of primary and general incidence of inflammatory diseases of the female pelvic organs did not decrease; between 2014 and 2018, there has been an increase in the incidence of primary female infertility. Non-inflammatory diseases of the female genital organs prevail (76.6%) as reason for admission in the day patient facility. Conclusion: The gynecological day patient facility manages female health; however, the nationwide and regional incidence rate of gynecological morbidity follows a negative trend and is increasing annually.


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 02020
Author(s):  
Waleed Taha Akram Toghramchy ◽  
Nahro Khasro Hussein

The constitutional and legal status of subjects of various federations is the issue considered by many scientists, but the area of comparative legal research remains poorly studied. The article considers the basics and features of the constitutional and legal status of the subjects of two federations that are at the stage of formation as democratic and legal states: the Russian Federation and the Federal Republic of Iraq. The purpose of the comparative study is to identify common and different elements of the constitutional and legal status of the subjects of two states and to identify on their basis a model of the constitutional and legal status of a subject of a modern, democratic, and rule-of-law state. The work is based on the comparative-legal research method. The study reveals differences in the ways of achieving the goal of building a federal state in the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Iraq. It also determines the foundations and features of the constitutional and legal status of the subjects of the two federations. The analysis of the main constitutional and legal norms establishing the procedure for the division of powers between federal and regional state authorities is carried out. The study results allow concluding that it is necessary to amend the constitutional legislation of the Republic of Iraq in order to expand the constitutional and legal status of the subjects and improve federal relations within the country.


2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-13
Author(s):  
P. A. Askarov ◽  
A. O. Karelin ◽  
I. A. Lakman ◽  
L. F. Rozanova ◽  
Zagira F. Askarova

Malignant neoplasms are an actual problem due to their high prevalence, high level of disability, tendency to increase. The purpose of the study is the segmentation of the territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan (RB) by the level of mortality from malignant neoplasms (MN) as a whole by municipalities, as well as by gender and by localizations of malignant neoplasms. Material and methods. The data of official statistics of the Territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Republic of Belarus (Table C 51), Rosstat were analyzed. The study was conducted using k-means cluster analysis and rating, implemented in the Statistica system. Results. There is a significant increase in the death rate of the entire population of ZN in 41 municipalities. Analysis of standardized mortality rates shows that the mortality rate per 100 thousand of the population in the Republic of Belarus is lower than similar indicators in the Russian Federation. The exception is mortality in esophageal cancer, which is higher in both men and women than in the Russian Federation. It has been established that the regions of the fourth and fifth clusters are unfavorable in terms of mortality from MN. Discussion. Revealed a pronounced uneven distribution of the territory of the Republic of Belarus with a tendency to an increase in mortality from MN in many territories. It is possible that the main reasons for the increase in mortality rates are worsening socio-economic conditions, lower living standards, increased chemical stress in urbanized areas (air pollution), as well as insufficient promotion of healthy lifestyles among the population, preventive knowledge, and health problems. care, its poor quality. Conclusion. As a result of the analysis, it was possible to establish that cluster analysis allows us to identify areas that have similar problems related to the level and trends of mortality from malignant tumors.


REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 494-511
Author(s):  
Asiya F. Validova

Introduction. The solution to the problem of ensuring demographic growth is one of the most pressing issues of the state policy. In 2007, Russia’s demographic policy was supplemented by new measures to stimulate the birth rate. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of the demographic policy programs aimed at supporting families and natality using the case studies of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Tatarstan. Materials and Methods. To identify the impact of measures to stimulate the birth rate, the method of regression analysis was used; time series based on age-specific birth rates for each age group were presented. Results. The data obtained showed that the steady trend of increasing the total fertility rate in Russia and Tatarstan since 2007 was almost completely related to the meas- ures under consideration, whereas the number of births was affected by many other factors. According to the results of the study, the impact of measures to increase the birth rate in the Republic of Tatarstan is slightly higher than in Russia as a whole. Discussion and Conclusions. State support measures reduce the costs associated with the birth of a child and can encourage women to have children, which con- firms the hypothesis of the positive impact of the state fertility policy. For a more accurate assessment of the effectiveness of the demographic policy measures, it is advisable to take into account the changing social and economic conditions of life in a region, as well as the consequences of the earlier or present-day demographic policy measures. The results of the study are of practical importance and may be used in the development of demographic policies in the country and in the region.


2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-12
Author(s):  
N.N. Bushmeleva ◽  
◽  
Yu.N. Vakhrusheva ◽  

Significance. The demographic crisis in Russia, registered since 2016, has deteriorated again and the forecast remains unfavorable, substantiating the need for reserves to protect the reproductive potential. Assessment of medical and demographic processes and the possibility of managing them is an important scientific and practical task, the solution of which is relevant for the Udmurt Republic against the background of the existing unfavorable trends in the socio-economic situation. Purpose of the study. To evaluate medical and demographic situation in the Udmurt Republic. Material and method. Medical and demographic indicators for 2012-2019 were studied on the basis of the Rosstat official statistics and materials of the Territorial Body of the State Statistics Service of the Udmurt Republic (according to the information support schemes approved by the Ministry of Health of the Udmurt Republic). Data of the federal statistical observation forms No. 13 for the period 2012 - 2019 were used as the research material. To compare the analyzed indicators in the Udmurt Republic, the Volga Federal District and the Russian Federation as a whole, the authors used materials available from the website of the Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (https://mednet.ru). To assess dynamics in the analyzed indicators, the growth rate index (%) was calculated. Results. The study has analyzed and evaluated major health and demographic indicators of the Udmurt Republic and compared them with similar indicators of the Russian Federation and the Volga Federal District. Results of the study include as follows: a steady decline in the Republic population; the reproduction indicators in the Republic are below the replacement level; low level of health across all age groups; the gynecological morbidity among females is 1.5-2-fold higher than in Russia and the Volga Federal District; high morbidity among females during pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period.


Author(s):  
З.К. Гетоева ◽  
В.В. Кадышев ◽  
М.Ю. Джаджиева ◽  
В.А. Галкина ◽  
А.В. Перепелов ◽  
...  

Представлен нозологический спектр моногенных наследственных болезней (МНБ) в трех районах Республики Северная Осетия Алания (РСОА) - Правобережном, Ардонском и Кировском, общей численностью 119 590 человек. Обследовано все население районов по протоколу генетико-эпидемиологических исследований (разработка ФГБНУ «МГНЦ»), выявлено и диагностировано 600 пациентов (из 418 семей) с различными МНБ. Всего выявлено 135 нозологических форм - 65 с аутосомно-доминантным типом наследования (АД), 57 с аутосомно-рецессивным (АР) и 14 с Х-сцепленным (Х-сц.). Определены распространенность заболеваний, частые и редкие нозологические формы. Проведено сравнение нозологического спектра и распространенности отдельных МНБ с таковыми в ранее обследованных популяциях европейской части России. Выявлены особенности разнообразия МНБ. Более высокие значения распространенности, чем в других популяциях РФ выявлены синдром Элерса-Данло, миотоническая дистрофия, несиндромальная умственная отсталость с различными типами наследования, различные формы пигментного ретинита и др. Ряд заболеваний, частых в обследованных регионах РФ, наоборот, встречались реже - вульгарный ихтиоз, нейрофиброматоз, наследственная моторно-сенсорная нейропатия и ихтиозиформная эритродеремия. In this article we present the nosological spectrum of monogenic hereditary diseases (MHD) in three districts of the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania (RNOA) - Pravoberezhny, Ardonsky and Kirovsky, with a total population of 119,590 people. The entire population of the districts was examined according to the Protocol of genetic and epidemiological studies (developed by the Federal state budgetary Research Centre for Medical Genetics), 600 patients (from 418 families) with various NBS were identified and diagnosed. We identified 136 nosological forms of MHD - 65 with autosomal dominant type of inheritance (AD), 57 with autosomal recessive (AR) and 14 with X-linked (X-lin.). We determine the prevalence of diseases, frequent and rare nosological forms. The nosological spectrum and prevalence of individual MHD were compared with previously surveyed populations in the European part of Russia: Kirov, Kostroma, Arkhangelsk, Tver, Bryansk, Rostov regions, Krasnodar territory and the Republics of Karachay-Cherkessia, Adygea, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Mari El, Udmurtia and Chuvashia. Features of the MHD diversity are revealed. With higher prevalence values than in other populations of the Russian Federation, Ehlers-Danlo syndrome, myotonic dystrophy, non - syndromic mental retardation with various types of inheritance and various forms of retinitis pigmentosa, etc. A number of diseases that are frequent in the Russian Federation have shown on the contrary lower prevalence values - vulgar ichthyosis, neurofibromatosis, hereditary motor-sensory neuropathy and ichthyosiform erythroderemia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 158-169
Author(s):  
Sergey G. Vazhenin ◽  
Irina S. Vazhenina

While the modern economy demonstrates an increase in company mobility, neither economists nor company managers pay due attention to this developing socio-economic phenomenon. Therefore, we analysed how new organisations enter the market of companies and old enterprises leave it after losing their viability, noting the specific features of these processes. We examined the market of companies in Russia in general and in the Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in particular. We used the data from 1 January 2001 to 1 January 2020 published in the Statistical Register of Organisations of Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The research methodology includes synthesis, analysis, comparison methods, and systemic-structural approach. The obtained results showed that, since 2016, the share of officially liquidated companies in the Russian Federation and most of its regions exceeds the birth rate of organisations. This is inextricably linked to the worsening economic situation in Russia, including the business environment. We noted that privately owned companies and organisations with joint Russian and foreign ownership have the highest turnover. The average annual turnover of organisations in Russia amounted to 16.8% in the period 2001–2019. Among the federal districts of the Russian Federation, organisations of the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts have demonstrated the greatest dynamics of the market of companies over the 19-year period (18.1 % and 17.4 %, respectively). Corresponding changes have taken place in the structure of organisations in the market of Russian companies. The share of companies providing various services has sharply increased, including transport and communication companies, and real estate organisations. New organisations with an established business reputation are mostly registered in the regions with higher competitive immunity, characterised by a favourable business environment for small- and medium-sized enterprises. The research results can be used by authorities for managing the spatial development of territories, and determining the support for certain types of business activities in a particular region or municipality.


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