Modelling the influence of biotic plant stress on atmospheric aerosol particle processes throughout a growing season

Abstract. Most trees emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) continuously throughout their life, but the rate of emission, and spectrum of emitted VOCs, become substantially altered when the trees experience stress. Still, models to predict the emissions of VOCs do not account for perturbations caused by biotic plant stress. Considering that such stresses have generally been forecast to increase in both frequency and severity in future climate, the neglect of plant stress-induced emissions in models might be one of the key obstacles for realistic climate change predictions, since changes in VOC concentrations are known to greatly influence atmospheric aerosol processes. Thus, we constructed a model to study the impact of biotic plant stresses on new particle formation and growth throughout a full growing season. We simulated the influence on aerosol processes caused by herbivory by European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) and autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) feeding on pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) and mountain birch (Betula pubescens var. pumila), respectively, and also fungal infections of pedunculate oak and balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera var. suaveolens) by oak powdery mildew (Erysiphe alphitoides) and poplar rust (Melampsora larici-populina), respectively. Our modelling results indicate that all the investigated plant stresses are capable of substantially perturbing both the number and size of aerosol particles in atmospherically relevant conditions, with increases in the amount of newly formed particles by up to about one order of magnitude and additional daily growth of up to almost 50 nm. We also showed that it can be more important to account for biotic plant stresses in models than significant variations in e.g. leaf area index, and temperature and light conditions, which are currently the main parameters controlling predictions of VOC emissions. Our study, thus, demonstrates that biotic plant stress can be highly atmospherically relevant and it supports biotic plant stress emissions to be integrated into numerical models for prediction of atmospheric chemistry and physics, including climate change projection models.

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Modelling the influence of biotic plant stress on atmospheric aerosol particle processes throughout a growing season

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-21-17389-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (23) ◽

pp. 17389-17431

Author(s):

Ditte Taipale ◽

Veli-Matti Kerminen ◽

Mikael Ehn ◽

Markku Kulmala ◽

Ülo Niinemets

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Atmospheric Aerosol ◽

Plant Stress ◽

Growing Season ◽

Particle Formation ◽

Pedunculate Oak ◽

New Particle Formation ◽

The Impact ◽

Particle Formation And Growth ◽

Atmospherically Relevant

Abstract. Most trees emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) continuously throughout their life, but the rate of emission and spectrum of emitted VOCs become substantially altered when the trees experience stress. Despite this, models to predict the emissions of VOCs do not account for perturbations caused by biotic plant stress. Considering that such stresses have generally been forecast to increase in both frequency and severity in the future climate, the neglect of stress-induced plant emissions in models might be one of the key obstacles for realistic climate change predictions, since changes in VOC concentrations are known to greatly influence atmospheric aerosol processes. Thus, we constructed a model to study the impact of biotic plant stresses on new particle formation and growth throughout a full growing season. We simulated the influence on aerosol processes caused by herbivory by the European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) and autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) feeding on pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) and mountain birch (Betula pubescens var. pumila), respectively, and also fungal infections of pedunculate oak and balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera var. suaveolens) by oak powdery mildew (Erysiphe alphitoides) and poplar rust (Melampsora larici-populina), respectively. Our modelling results indicate that all the investigated plant stresses are capable of substantially perturbing both the number and size of aerosol particles in atmospherically relevant conditions, with increases in the amount of newly formed particles by up to about an order of magnitude and additional daily growth of up to almost 50 nm. We also showed that it can be more important to account for biotic plant stresses in models for local and regional predictions of new particle formation and growth during the time of infestation or infection than significant variations in, e.g. leaf area index and temperature and light conditions, which are currently the main parameters controlling predictions of VOC emissions. Our study thus demonstrates that biotic plant stress can be highly atmospherically relevant. To validate our findings, field measurements are urgently needed to quantify the role of stress emissions in atmospheric aerosol processes and for making integration of biotic plant stress emission responses into numerical models for prediction of atmospheric chemistry and physics, including climate change projection models, possible.

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Sugar Content of Grapes and the Sustainability of their Production in the Czech Republic

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13010222 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 222

Author(s):

Miroslava Navrátilová ◽

Markéta Beranová ◽

Lucie Severová ◽

Karel Šrédl ◽

Roman Svoboda ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Czech Republic ◽

Sugar Content ◽

Growing Season ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

The Czech Republic ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Secondary Sources ◽

The Impact ◽

Growing Region

The aim of the presented article is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the sugar content of grapes in the Czech Republic during the period 2000–2019 through selected indicators on the basis of available secondary sources. Attention is focused on the developments in both the main wine-growing regions of Moravia and Bohemia. In the field of viticulture and wine-growing, the sugar content of grapes, as a basic parameter for the classification of wines, plays an important role. In the Czech Republic, the average sugar content of grapes has had a constantly growing trend. This trend is evident both in the wine-growing region of Bohemia and in the wine-growing region of Moravia. The impact of climate change, especially the gradual increase of average temperatures in the growing season, cannot be overlooked. It greatly affects, among other things, the sugar content of grapes. Calculations according to the Huglin Index and the Winkler Index were used to determine the relationship between climate and sugar content. These indexes summarize the course of temperatures during the entire vegetation period into a single numerical value. The results show that both indexes describe the effect of air temperature on sugar content in both wine regions of the Czech Republic in a statistically significant way. The Huglin Index shows a higher correlation rate. The Winkler Index proved to be less suitable for both areas. Alternatively, the Winkler Index calculated for a shorter growing season was tested, which showed a higher degree of correlation with sugar content, approaching the significance of the Huglin Index.

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13122249 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (12) ◽

pp. 2249

Author(s):

Sadia Alam Shammi ◽

Qingmin Meng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Growing Season ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

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Plant Phenology and Its Anthropogenic and Natural Influencing Factors in Densely Populated Areas During the Economic Transition Period of China

Frontiers in Environmental Science ◽

10.3389/fenvs.2021.792918 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Peijun Ju ◽

Wenchao Yan ◽

Jianliang Liu ◽

Xinwei Liu ◽

Liangfeng Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Transition ◽

Transition Period ◽

Growing Season ◽

Plant Phenology ◽

Future Research ◽

Urban Management ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

The Impact

As a sensitive, observable, and comprehensive indicator of climate change, plant phenology has become a vital topic of global change. Studies about plant phenology and its responses to climate change in natural ecosystems have drawn attention to the effects of human activities on phenology in/around urban regions. The key factors and mechanisms of phenological and human factors in the process of urbanization are still unclear. In this study, we analyzed variations in xylophyta phenology in densely populated cities during the fast urbanization period of China (from 1963 to 1988). We assessed the length of the growing season affected by the temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased the length of the growing season in most regions, while precipitation had the opposite effect. Moreover, the plant-growing season is more sensitive to preseason climate factors than to annual average climate factors. The increased population reduced the length of the growing season, while the growing GDP increased the length of the growing season in most regions (8 out of 13). By analyzing the impact of the industry ratio, we found that the correlation between the urban management of emerging cities (e.g., Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Guizhou) and the growing season is more significant, and the impact is substantial. In contrast, urban management in most areas with vigorously developed heavy industry (e.g., Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Beijing) has a weak and insignificant effect on plant phenology. These results indicate that different urban development patterns can influence urban plant phenology. Our results provide some support and new thoughts for future research on urban plant phenology.

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Monitoring the Impact of Environmental Manipulation on Peatland Surface by Simple Remote Sensing Indices

ITM Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/itmconf/20182300030 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 23 ◽

pp. 00030 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Anshu Rastogi ◽

Subhajit Bandopadhyay ◽

Marcin Stróżecki ◽

Radosław Juszczak

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Near Infrared ◽

Near Infrared Reflectance ◽

Area Index ◽

Environmental Manipulation ◽

Chlorophyll Index ◽

The Impact ◽

Remote Sensing Indices

The behaviour of nature depends on the different components of climates. Among these, temperature and rainfall are two of the most important components which are known to change plant productivity. Peatlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on the Earth, which is due to its high biodiversity, huge soil carbon storage, and its sensitivity to different environmental factors. With the rapid growth in industrialization, the climate change is becoming a big concern. Therefore, this work is focused on the behaviour of Sphagnum peatland in Poland, subjected to environment manipulation. Here it has been shown how a simple reflectance based technique can be used to assess the impact of climate change on peatland. The experimental setup consists of four plots with two kind of manipulations (control, warming, reduced precipitation, and a combination of warming and reduced precipitation). Reflectance data were measured twice in August 2017 under a clear sky. Vegetation indices (VIs) such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI), Green chlorophyll index (CIgreen), Simple Ration (SR), and Water Band Index (WBI) were calculated to trace the impact of environmental manipulation on the plant community. Leaf Area Index of vascular plants was also measured for the purpose to correlate it with different VIs. The observation predicts that the global warming of 1°C may cause a significant change in peatland behaviour which can be tracked and monitored by simple remote sensing indices.

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The Impact of Local Climate Change on Radial Picea abies Growth: A Case Study in Natural Mountain Spruce Stand and Low-Lying Spruce Monoculture

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12081118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 1118

Author(s):

Vladimír Šagát ◽

Ivan Ružek ◽

Karel Šilhán ◽

Pavel Beracko

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Picea Abies ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Growing Season ◽

Local Climate ◽

Spruce Forests ◽

Spruce Stands ◽

Local Climate Change ◽

Positive Correlations ◽

The Impact

Picea abies L. Karst is undeniably one of the most important tree species growing in Slovakia. In addition to natural mountain spruce forests, monocultures planted in lower areas are also quite common. In this article, we analyze the climate–growth response differences between these two types of spruce stands in the context of local climate change consequences. The study area representing natural mountain spruce forests is located under Osobitá Mt. (Tatra Mountains, Slovakia), while the analyzed low-lying planted monoculture is situated near Biely kríž (Malé Karpaty Mountains, Slovakia). Temporal variation of the dendroclimatological relationships was expressed by the running Spearman correlation coefficient during the observed period 1961–2018. The results showed crucial differences in the dendroclimatological relationships between the selected study areas. For the natural mountain spruce stand, consistent, weak, and positive correlations to the temperature variables were typical, with negative relationships to precipitation during the growing season. In this case, the negative impact of a recent temperature rise was limited. In contrast, the monoculture reacted to the temperature variation during the growing season with fluctuations, while in the case of precipitation, almost no dependence was found. Such incoherency may be a consequence of worsened health conditions, as well as insufficient resiliency to climate-driven stress. The importance of this paper is in its wide applicability, mainly in forestry.

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Sensitivity of wheat yields to rise in growing season temperature: Evidences from panel data analysis

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i2.167 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 191-197

Author(s):

K. PHILIP ◽

S.S. ASHA DEVI ◽

G.K. JHA ◽

B.M.K. RAJU ◽

B. SEN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Panel Data ◽

Growing Season ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Data Set ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Wide Range ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact

The impact of climate change on agriculture is well studied yet there is scope for improvement as crop specific and location specific impacts need to be assessed realistically to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies to lessen the adverse effects of climate change. Many researchers have tried to estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using indirect crop simulation modeling techniques. Here, this study estimated the potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using a crop specific panel data set from 1981 to 2010,for six major wheat producing states. The study revealed that 1°C increase in average maximum temperature during the growing season reduces wheat yield by 3 percent. Major share of wheat growth and yield (79%) is attributed to increase in usage of physical inputs specifically fertilizers, machine labour and human labour. The estimated impact was lesser than previously reported studies due to the inclusion of wide range of short-term adaptation strategies to climate change. The results reiterate the necessity of including confluent factors like physical inputs while investigating the impact of climate factors on crop yields.

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JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-7-6773-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (5) ◽

pp. 6773-6809

Author(s):

T. Osborne ◽

J. Gornall ◽

J. Hooker ◽

K. Williams ◽

A. Wiltshire ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Surface ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Water Security ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Surface Model ◽

Yield Model ◽

Area Index ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soy bean, maize and rice is presented. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soy bean at the global level, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index and canopy height better than in standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging however, more effort is needed to develop the parameterisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the specification of the yield gap to enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

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AGROCLIMATIC ZONES AND YIELD OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN THE CHANGING CONDITIONS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE

Vestnik of Kazan state agrarin university ◽

10.12737/2073-0462-2021-142-147 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 142-147

Author(s):

Anna Scherbakova

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Growing Season ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Komi Republic ◽

Regional Level ◽

Agricultural Crop ◽

Agricultural Crops ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Today there is enough scientific research to prove the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there is no conclusive conclusion as to what is in store for agriculture, its potential will increase or decrease. Significant consequences of the impact of climate change are likely to manifest themselves at the regional level, and this requires additional research for further adaptation of agriculture in the corresponding territory. The aim of the study is to assess changes in agro-climatic indicators at the regional level. The subject is the Komi Republic, located in the extreme northeast of the European part of the country. The chosen research methodology based on statistical processing of agro-climatic indicators for ten meteorological stations in the region for 1960-2018 and economic indicators of productivity and gross harvest of agricultural crops for 1913-2018 due to the large amount of data. Paired regression analysis used accurately interpret the results. The obtained mathematical models evaluated according to the Pearson coefficient, Student’s t-criterion, determination coefficient, F – Fisher’s criterion, so that the results of the study were reliable. For some regions, the consequences of climate change may turn out to be negative in the form of a decrease in food supply, for others - positive, due to an increase in the duration of the growing season and, accordingly, an increase in the potential productivity of agricultural crops. The relevance of the study is because these positive consequences will be especially characteristic for the northern territories. As a result, it revealed that in four agro-climatic regions of the Komi Republic, there were insignificant climatic changes for agriculture over a sixty-year period. An analysis of the yield of vegetables in open ground showed that it increased from 36 to 314 tons per hectare, and the gross yield of the main agricultural crop - potatoes - decreased almost 3 times, but the main reason is the reduction in acreage, and not climate change. However, the trend line for potato yields in the region as a whole shows an upward trend over a 100-year period. The performed paired regression analysis between the selected agro-climatic indicators and the yield of agricultural crops of the republic revealed an average direct relationship only between the yield of vegetables and the duration of the growing season, and the sum of average daily temperatures. Consequently, it is currently impossible to assert that the ongoing climatic changes have a significant impact on agriculture in the Komi Republic

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Soil Water and Nitrogen Fluxes in Response to Climate Change in a Wheat–Maize Double Cropping System

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy10060786 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 786 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yong He ◽

Yilin Shi ◽

Hao Liang ◽

Kelin Hu ◽

Lingling Hou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Soil Water ◽

Nitrate Leaching ◽

Growing Season ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Water Drainage ◽

Summer Maize ◽

N Fluxes ◽

The Impact

The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production is a thoroughly researched issue; however, robust assessments on the impact of climate change on water and N fluxes in agroecosystem are lacking. The complexity of soil water and N fluxes in response to climate change under agroecosystems makes simulation-based approaches to this issue appealing. This study evaluated the responses of crop yield, soil water, and N fluxes of a wheat–maize rotation to two Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at Tai’an, a representative site on the North China Plain (NCP). Results showed that the mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) growing seasons changed in both magnitude and pattern under various climate scenarios. The temperature increases shortened the growth periods of these two crops by more than 13 days and decrease summer maize yields (P < 0.05). These results are illustrated by lower yield results associated with RCP4.5 (20.5%) and RCP8.5 (19.3%) climate scenarios, respectively. During the winter wheat growing season, water drainage examined in the climate scenarios was significantly higher (more than double) than the baseline, and there was no significant change to nitrate leaching and denitrification. In the summer maize growing season, with continuously rising temperatures, the ranking for evaporation was in the order baseline < RCP4.5 < RCP8.5, however, the opposite ranking applied for transpiration and evapotranspiration. The increase in water drainage was 1.4 times higher than the baseline, whereas the nitrate leaching in soil significantly decreased. Our simulation results provide an opportunity to improve the understanding of soil water and N fluxes in agroecosystems, which can lead to deficient or excess N under future climate conditions.

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