scholarly journals Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4679-4688 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Gibbs ◽  
P. R. Bown ◽  
B. H. Murphy ◽  
A. Sluijs ◽  
K. M. Edgar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene that include five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

scholarly journals Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1237-1257
Author(s):  
S. J. Gibbs ◽  
P. R. Bown ◽  
B. H. Murphy ◽  
A. Sluijs ◽  
K. M. Edgar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Carbon Redistribution ◽  
Extinction Events

Abstract. Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient global warming events associated with massive carbon injection or carbon redistribution in the ocean-atmosphere system, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene, including five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long-time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

scholarly journals Reduced carbon cycle resilience across the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 1515-1527 ◽  
Author(s):  
David I. Armstrong McKay ◽  
Timothy M. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Carbon Burial ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Organic Carbon Burial ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Hyperthermal Events

Abstract. Several past episodes of rapid carbon cycle and climate change are hypothesised to be the result of the Earth system reaching a tipping point beyond which an abrupt transition to a new state occurs. At the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at ∼56 Ma and at subsequent hyperthermal events, hypothesised tipping points involve the abrupt transfer of carbon from surface reservoirs to the atmosphere. Theory suggests that tipping points in complex dynamical systems should be preceded by critical slowing down of their dynamics, including increasing temporal autocorrelation and variability. However, reliably detecting these indicators in palaeorecords is challenging, with issues of data quality, false positives, and parameter selection potentially affecting reliability. Here we show that in a sufficiently long, high-resolution palaeorecord there is consistent evidence of destabilisation of the carbon cycle in the ∼1.5 Myr prior to the PETM, elevated carbon cycle and climate instability following both the PETM and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and different drivers of carbon cycle dynamics preceding the PETM and ETM2 events. Our results indicate a loss of “resilience” (weakened stabilising negative feedbacks and greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the carbon cycle before the PETM and in the carbon–climate system following it. This pre-PETM carbon cycle destabilisation may reflect gradual forcing by the contemporaneous North Atlantic Volcanic Province eruptions, with volcanism-driven warming potentially weakening the organic carbon burial feedback. Our results are consistent with but cannot prove the existence of a tipping point for abrupt carbon release, e.g. from methane hydrate or terrestrial organic carbon reservoirs, whereas we find no support for a tipping point in deep ocean temperature.

scholarly journals Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1953-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon N. Inglis ◽  
Fran Bragg ◽  
Natalie J. Burls ◽  
Margot J. Cramwinckel ◽  
David Evans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Climatic Optimum ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 per doubling CO2).

scholarly journals Mammal faunal response to the Paleogene hyperthermals ETM2 and H2

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1371-1405
Author(s):  
A. E. Chew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Bighorn Basin ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
The South ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
South Central ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Thermal Maximum

Abstract. Scientists are increasingly turning to deep-time fossil records to decipher the long-term consequences of climate change in the race to preserve modern biotas from anthropogenically driven global warming. "Hyperthermals" are past intervals of geologically rapid global warming that provide the opportunity to study the effects of climate change on existing faunas over thousands of years. A series hyperthermals is known from the early Eocene (∼56–54 million years ago), including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and two subsequent hyperthermals, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and H2. The later hyperthermals occurred following the onset of warming at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), the hottest sustained period of the Cenozoic. The PETM has been comprehensively studied in marine and terrestrial settings, but the terrestrial biotic effects of ETM2 and H2 are unknown. Their geochemical signatures have been located in the northern part of the Bighorn Basin, WY, USA, and their levels can be extrapolated to an extraordinarily dense, well-studied terrestrial mammal fossil record in the south-central part of the basin. High-resolution, multi-parameter paleoecological analysis reveals significant peaks in species diversity and turnover and changes in abundance and relative body size at the levels of ETM2 and H2 in the south-central Bighorn Basin record. In contrast with the PETM, faunal change at the later hyperthermals is less extreme, does not include immigration and involves a proliferation of body sizes, although abundance shifts tend to favor smaller congeners. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is distinctive in its high proportion of species losses potentially related to heightened species vulnerability in response to the changes already underway at the beginning of the EECO. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is also distinctive in high proportions of beta richness, suggestive of increased geographic dispersal related to transient increases in habitat (floral) complexity and/or precipitation or seasonality of precipitation. These results suggest that rapid ecological changes, increased heterogeneity in species incidence, and heightened species vulnerability and loss may be expected across most of North America in the near future in response to anthropogenically-driven climate change.

scholarly journals Reduced Carbon Cycle Resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David I. Armstrong McKay ◽  
Timothy M. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
Hyperthermal Events ◽  
Negative Feedbacks

Abstract. Several past episodes of rapid carbon cycle and climate change are hypothesised to be the result of the Earth system reaching a tipping point beyond which an abrupt transition to a new state occurs. At the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ~ 56 Ma, and at subsequent hyperthermal events, hypothesised tipping points involve the abrupt transfer of carbon from surface reservoirs to the atmosphere. Theory suggests that tipping points in complex dynamical systems should be preceded by critical slowing down of their dynamics, including increasing temporal autocorrelation and variability. However, reliably detecting these indicators in palaeorecords is challenging, with issues of data quality, false positives, and parameter selection potentially affecting reliability. Here we show that in a sufficiently long, high-resolution palaeorecord there is consistent evidence of destabilisation of the carbon cycle in the ~ 1.5 My prior to the PETM, elevated carbon cycle and climate instability following both the PETM and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and differing carbon cycle dynamics preceding the PETM and ETM2. Our results indicate a loss of resilience (weakened stabilising negative feedbacks and greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the carbon cycle before the PETM, and in the carbon-climate system following it. This pre-PETM carbon cycle destabilisation may reflect gradual forcing by the contemporaneous North Atlantic Volcanic Province eruptions. Our results are consistent with but cannot prove the existence of a tipping point for abrupt carbon release, e.g. from methane hydrate or terrestrial organic carbon reservoirs, whereas we find no support for a tipping point in deep ocean temperature.

scholarly journals Increasing Pleistocene permafrost persistence and carbon cycle conundrums inferred from Canadian speleothems

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. eabe5799
Author(s):  
Nicole Biller-Celander ◽  
Jeremy D. Shakun ◽  
David McGee ◽  
Corinne I. Wong ◽  
Alberto V. Reyes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Cycling ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Cave Deposits ◽  
Growth History ◽  
Carbon Release

Permafrost carbon represents a potentially powerful amplifier of climate change, but little is known about permafrost sensitivity and associated carbon cycling during past warm intervals. We reconstruct permafrost history in western Canada during Pleistocene interglacials from 130 uranium-thorium ages on 72 speleothems, cave deposits that only accumulate with deep ground thaw. We infer that permafrost thaw extended to the high Arctic during one or more periods between ~1.5 million and 0.5 million years ago but has been limited to the sub-Arctic since 400,000 years ago. Our Canadian speleothem growth history closely parallels an analogous reconstruction from Siberia, suggesting that this shift toward more stable permafrost across the Pleistocene may have been Arctic-wide. In contrast, interglacial greenhouse gas concentrations were relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene, suggesting that either permafrost thaw did not trigger substantial carbon release to the atmosphere or it was offset by carbon uptake elsewhere on glacial-interglacial time scales.

scholarly journals Tourism and climate change: socioeconomic implications, mitigation and adaptation measures

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Utsab Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Adventure Tourism ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

The relationship between tourism and changing climate has been discussed and studied for a relatively long time in tourism research. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to appear, and especially recently, the issue of adaptation and mitigation has been emphasized as an urgent research need in tourism and climate change studies. This paper is based on the review of selected articles which discuss the several forms of tourism and climate change and provide recommendations for mitigation and adaptation measures. This review paper assesses the impacts of climate change on the popular forms of tourism such as; mountain tourism, wildlife tourism, adventure tourism, sun/sand tourism; last chance tourism, and describes the extent of tourism vulnerabilities and their implications. The paper concludes that the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures have to be followed to minimize the risk of climate change while trying to save all forms of tourism. The initiative of this article is to present an overview of the existing literature on the relationship between tourism and climate change in order to establish the current state of corporate and institutional responses within the tourism industry and to set out an agenda for future research. The currency of the review is evident given the recent surge in popular discussion on climate change and its effects on tourism, and the appearance of a broad and disparate array of studies on this topic. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v4i2.12664 International Journal of Environment Vol.4(2) 2015: 355-373

The Problem of Identifying and Modeling the Relationship between Monetary Factor and Inflation in the Russian Economy

2008 ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
A. Porshakov ◽  
A. Ponomarenko
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Complex Approach ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Supply Side Factors

The role of monetary factor in generating inflationary processes in Russia has stimulated various debates in social and scientific circles for a relatively long time. The authors show that identification of the specificity of relationship between money and inflation requires a complex approach based on statistical modeling and involving a wide range of indicators relevant for the price changes in the economy. As a result a model of inflation for Russia implying the decomposition of inflation dynamics into demand-side and supply-side factors is suggested. The main conclusion drawn is that during the recent years the volume of inflationary pressures in the Russian economy has been determined by the deviation of money supply from money demand, rather than by money supply alone. At the same time, monetary factor has a long-run spread over time impact on inflation.

INTERCONNECTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COMPONENTS FOR THE INDIGENOUS PEOPLES OF THE NORTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
N. N. ILYSHEVA ◽  
◽  
E. V. KARANINA ◽  
G. P. LEDKOV ◽  
E. V. BALDESKU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
The North ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Relationship

The article deals with the problem of achieving sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to reveal the relationship between the components of sustainable development, taking into account the involvement of indigenous peoples in nature conservation. Climate change makes achieving sustainable development more difficult. Indigenous peoples are the first to feel the effects of climate change and play an important role in the environmental monitoring of their places of residence. The natural environment is the basis of life for indigenous peoples, and biological resources are the main source of food security. In the future, the importance of bioresources will increase, which is why economic development cannot be considered independently. It is assumed that the components of resilience are interrelated and influence each other. To identify this relationship, a model for the correlation of sustainable development components was developed. The model is based on the methods of correlation analysis and allows to determine the tightness of the relationship between economic development and its ecological footprint in the face of climate change. The correlation model was tested on the statistical materials of state reports on the environmental situation in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Yugra. The approbation revealed a strong positive relationship between two components of sustainable development of the region: economy and ecology.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON CYCLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORWEGIAN-GREENLAND SEAWAY DURING THE LATEST JURASSIC AND EARLY CRETACEOUS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly E. Turner ◽  
◽  
Felix M. Gradstein ◽  
Sietske J. Batenburg ◽  
Andrew S. Gale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Early Cretaceous
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