scholarly journals A model study of the energy and mass balance of Chhota Shigri glacier in the Western Himalaya, India

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pithan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on Himalaya mountain glaciers is increasingly subject of public and scientific debate. However, observational data are sparse and important knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of what drives changes in these glaciers' mass balances. The present study investigates the glacier regime on Chhota Shigri, a benchmark glacier for the observation of climate change in the monsoon-arid transition zone of Western Himalaya. Results of an energy-balance model driven by reanalysis data and the observed mass balances from three years on 50 m altitude intervals across the glacier display a correlation coefficient of 0.974. Contrary to prior assumptions, monsoon precipitation accounts for a quarter to a third of total accumulation. It has an additional importance because it lowers the surface albedo during the ablation season. Results confirm radiation as the main energy source for melt on Himalaya glaciers. Latent heat flux acts as an important energy sink in the pre-monsoon season. Mass balance is most sensitive to changes in atmospheric humidity, changing by 900 mm w.e. per 10% change in humidity. Temperature sensitivity is 220 mm w.e.K−1. Model results using 21st century anomalies from a regional climate model based on the SRES A2 scenario suggest that a monsoon increase might offset the effect of warming.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of superimposed ice on the mass balance of an Arctic glacier under scenarios of future climate change

2005 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 277-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Wright ◽  
Jemma Wadham ◽  
Martin Siegert ◽  
Adrian Luckman ◽  
Jack Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Explicit Calculation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA surface-energy/mass-balance model with an explicit calculation of meltwater refreezing and superimposed ice formation is applied to midre Lovénbreen, Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The model is run with meteorological measurements to represent the present climate, and run with scenarios taken from global climate model predictions based on the IS92a emissions scenario to represent future climates. Model results indicate that superimposed ice accounts for on average 37% of the total net accumulation under present conditions. The model is found to be highly sensitive to changes in the mean annual air temperature and much less sensitive to changes in the total annual precipitation. A 0.5˚C decade–1 temperature increase is predicted to cause an average mass-balance change of –0.43 ma–1, while a 2% decade–1 increase in precipitation will result in only a +0.02 ma–1 change in mass balance. An increase in temperature results in a significant decrease in the size of the accumulation area at midre Lovénbreen and hence a similar decrease in the net volume of superimposed ice. The model predicts, however, that the relative importance of superimposed ice will increase to account for >50% of the total accumulation by 2050. The results show that the refreezing of meltwater and in particular the formation of superimposed ice make an important positive contribution to the mass balance of midre Lovénbreen under present conditions and will play a vital future role in slowing down the response of glacier mass balance to climate change.

Modelling mass changes of Dokriani (Central Himalaya) and Chhota Shigri (Western Himalaya) glaciers, India using energy balance approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smriti Srivastava ◽  
Mohd Farooq Azam
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Chhota Shigri Glacier ◽  
Energy Balance Approach

<p>Processes controlling the glacier wastage in the Himalaya are still poorly understood. In the present study, a surface energy-mass balance model is applied to reconstruct the long-term mass balances over 1979-2020 on two benchmark glaciers, Dokriani and Chhota Shigri, located in different climatic regimes. The model is forced with ERA5 reanalysis data and calibrated using field-observed point mass balances. The model is validated against available glacier-wide mass balances. Dokriani and Chhota Shigri glaciers show moderate wastage with a mean value of –0.28 and –0.34 m w.e. a<sup>-1</sup>, respectively over 1979-2020. The mean winter and summer glacier-wide mass balances are 0.44 and –0.72 m w.e. a<sup>-1</sup> for Dokriani Glacier and 0.53 and –0.85 m w.e. a<sup>-1</sup> for Chhota Shigri Glacier, respectively, showing a higher mass turn over on Chhota Shigri Glacier. Net radiation flux is the major component of surface energy balance followed by sensible and latent heat fluxes on both the glaciers. The losses through sublimation is around 10% to the total ablation. Surface albedo is one of the most important drivers controlling the annual mass balance of both Dokriani and Chhota Shigri glacier. Summer mass balance (0.76, p<0.05) mainly controls the annual glacier-wide mass balance on Dokriani Glacier whereas the summer (0.91, p<0.05) and winter (0.78, p<0.05) mass balances together control the annual glacier-wide mass balance on Chhota Shigri Glacier.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating melt, runoff and refreezing on Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, using a coupled snow and energy balance model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 641-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. J. van Pelt ◽  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
C. H. Reijmer ◽  
V. A. Pohjola ◽  
R. Pettersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A distributed energy balance model is coupled to a multi-layer snow model in order to study the mass balance evolution and the impact of refreezing on the mass budget of Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard. The model is forced with output from the regional climate model RACMO and meteorological data from Svalbard Airport. Extensive calibration and initialisation are performed to increase the model accuracy. For the period 1989–2010, we find a mean net mass balance of −0.39 m w.e. a−1. Refreezing contributes on average 0.27 m w.e. a−1 to the mass budget and is most pronounced in the accumulation zone. The simulated mass balance, radiative fluxes and subsurface profiles are validated against observations and are generally in good agreement. Climate sensitivity experiments reveal a non-linear, seasonally dependent response of the mass balance, refreezing and runoff to changes in temperature and precipitation. It is shown that including seasonality in climate change, with less pronounced summer warming, reduces the sensitivity of the mass balance and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) estimates in a future climate. The amount of refreezing is shown to be rather insensitive to changes in climate.

scholarly journals Modelling the mass balance of northwest Spitsbergen glaciers and responses to climate change

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 203-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Fleming ◽  
Julian A. Dowdeswell ◽  
Johannes Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Area Distribution ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Precipitation Increase

An energy-balance model is used to calculate mass balance and equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) on two northwest Spitsbergen glaciers, Austre Brøggerbreen and Midre Lovénbreen, whose mass balances are at present negative, and for which greater than 20 year records of mass-balance data are available. The model takes meteorological data, ice-mass area distribution with altitude, and solar radiation as inputs. Modelling uses mean daily meteorological data from a nearby weather station, adjusted for altitude. Average net balances modelled for 1980–89 using models tuned to the decade’s average were –0.44 and –0.47 m w.e. for Lovénbreen and Brøggerbreen, respectively, compared with the measured averages of –0.27 and –0.36 m. Sensitivity tests on glacier response to greenhouse warming predict a net balance change of –0.61 m year–1 per °C temperature rise relative to today, and a rise in ELA of 90 m °C–1. Modelling of Little lee Age conditions in Spitsbergen suggests that a 0.6°C cooling or a precipitation increase of 23% would yield zero net mass balance for Lovénbreen and that further cooling would increase net balance by 0.30 m year–1 °C–1. Set in the context of similar modelling of southern Norwegian, Alpine and Greenland ice masses, these results support the suggestion that glaciers with a maritime influence (i.e. higher accumulation) are most sensitive to climate change, implying a gradient towards decreasing sensitivity as accumulation decreases eastward and with altitude in Svalbard.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Alsarraf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period’s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1◦C to 3 ◦C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.</p><p><strong> </strong></p>

scholarly journals Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM–RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects*

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Bosshard ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Supply Source ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, with considerable impacts on water resources. Climate-induced changes in the hydrology of the Rhine River (Europe) are of major importance for the riparian countries, as the Rhine River is the most important European waterway, serves as a freshwater supply source, and is prone to floods and droughts. Here regional climate model data from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is used to drive the hydrological model Precipitation–Runoff–Evapotranspiration–Hydrotope (PREVAH) and to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology in the Rhine basin. Results suggest increases in monthly mean runoff during winter and decreases in summer. At the gauge Cologne and for the period 2070–99 under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, projected decreases in summer vary between −9% and −40% depending on the climate model used, while increases in winter are in the range of +4% to +51%. These projected changes in mean runoff are generally consistent with earlier studies, but the derived spread in the runoff projections appears to be larger. It is demonstrated that temperature effects (e.g., through altered snow processes) dominate in the Alpine tributaries, while precipitation effects dominate in the lower portion of the Rhine basin. Analyses are also presented for selected extreme runoff indices.

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