scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Fujian Pork Prices under African Swine Fever Based on ARIMA Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
Qian-Qian Song ◽  
Jun-Xiong You ◽  
Meng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Model Construction ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Fujian Province ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
High Level

This article takes the monthly data of the average pork price in Fujian Province from January 2018 to December 2019 as the research object, conducts the ARIMA model construction and analysis, and predicts the pork price in Fujian Province from January to June 2020. Results show that the pork price will have dropped slightly than before, but it is still at a relatively high level. Corresponding policy recommendations are made based on the results of the study.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Policies and Influencing Factors: The Case of Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Anila Mancka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Monetary and fiscal policies are two policies that the government could use to keep a high level of growth, with a low inflancion. Fiscal policy has its initial impact on the stock market, while monetary policy in market assets. But, given that the goods and active markets are closely interrelated, both policies, monetary as well as fiscal have impact on the economy, increasing the level of product through the reduction of interest rates. In our paper we will show how functioning monetary and fiscal policies. But also in our paper we will analyze the different factors which have affected the economic growth of the country. The focus of our study is the graphical and empirical analysis of economic growth, policies and influencing factors. For the empirical analysis we have used data on the economic growth in Albania for 1996– 2014.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Sebagai Model Peramalan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-80
Author(s):  
Roro Kushartanti ◽  
Maulina Latifah
Keyword(s):  
Community Health ◽  
Health Center ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Community Health Center ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Forecasting Method

ARIMA is a forecasting method time series that does not require a specific data pattern. This study aims to analyze the forecasting of Semarang City DHF cases specifically in the Rowosari Community Health Center. The study used monthly data on DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in 2016, 2017, and 2019 as many as 36 dengue case data. The best ARIMA model for forecasting is a model that meets the requirements for parameter significance, white noise and has the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error Smallest) value. The results of the analysis show that the best model for predicting the number of dengue cases in the Rowosari Public Health Center Semarang is the ARIMA model (1,0,0) with a MAPE value of 43.98% and a significance coefficient of 0.353, meaning that this model is suitable and feasible to be used as a forecasting model. DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in Semarang City.

Analisis Rantai Nilai Komoditas Kubis (Brassica oleracea L): Studi Kasus di Sentra Produksi Kabupaten Karo

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 269
Author(s):  
Idha Widi Arsanti ◽  
Apri Laila Sayekti ◽  
Adhitya Marendra Kiloes
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Brassica Oleracea ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
High Level ◽  
Purposive Sample ◽  
Brassica Oleracea L

<p>Kabupaten Karo, Sumatera Utara merupakan sentra produksi kubis yang berkontribusi memberikan devisa negara melalui ekspor. Di samping itu, kubis dari Kabupaten Karo memiliki keunggulan dalam karakteristik produknya dibandingkan dari negara lain. Namun demikian, arti penting kubis sebagai penyumbang nilai devisa belum diikuti dengan perlakuan produksi, panen, pascapanen, dan pemasaran yang memenuhi standar ekspor. Pelaku agribisnis di dalam rantai pasar kubis semakin banyak, di mana awalnya petani menjual ke pedagang pengumpul, pedagang besar, dan langsung ke eksportir, namun sekarang terdapat pelaku baru seperti pedagang pengumpul desa, pedagang pengumpul kecamatan, kemudian kubis dijual ke pedagang besar. Hal ini memungkinkan terjadinya inefisiensi margin pemasaran di sepanjang alur pemasaran. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut, perlu dilakukan analisis rantai nilai komoditas kubis Kabupaten Karo untuk melihat keuntungan yang diperoleh setiap pelaku agribisnis kubis. Lebih lanjut dapat diberikan rekomendasi kebijakan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan keefektifan rantai pemasaran kubis di Kabupaten Karo. Penelitian dilakukan di Kabupaten Karo melalui wawancara langsung kepada pelaku agribisnis kubis pada tahun 2012. Pemilihan <em>sample</em> dilakukan secara <em>purposive</em> dengan pertimbangan bahwa jumlah pelaku agribisnis kubis tidak terlalu banyak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ekspor kubis mengalami penurunan dari tahun ke tahun, karena lahan pertanian kubis yang semakin sempit. Kubis dengan nilai R/C yang tinggi menunjukkan tingkat keuntungan yang cukup besar. Dalam rantai pemasaran kubis, petani menerima pangsa yang cukup besar, sementara eksportir dengan kapasitas usaha yang besar juga menerima pendapatan yang seimbang. Sebagai implikasi kebijakan, pemerintah dapat memberikan dukungan dalam peningkatan ekspor berupa diseminasi teknologi budidaya untuk meningkatkan produksi serta fasilitasi ekspor baik sarana maupun prasarana pengangkutan dari lahan usahatani hingga pasar ekspor, perijinan ekspor serta bongkar muat di pelabuhan.</p><p>Karo District, North Sumatera is a production center of cabbages which provides significant contribution of foreign exchange. Moreover, cabbages in Karo have many advantages compare to cabbages from other countries. Nevertheless, these important roles of cabbages have not been followed by standardized exported treatments, not only the production, harvest, postharvest but also the marketing treatment. Agribusiness of cabbages also show inefficiency of the marketing margin. Based on these problems, it is necessary to analyze the value chain of cabbages in Karo, to see the benefit received by each person in agribusiness system. Further, policy recommendations can be given to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of cabbage supply chain in Karo District. This research was conducted through interviews people who in charge in cabbage agribusiness in 2012. The purposive sample was done considering that the number people in cabbage agribusiness were not too much. The results showed that cabbage exports, in term of value, decreased from year to year, particularly due to limited land. R/C analysis showed the high level of profit. In this cabbage supply chain, farmers receive considerable share, while the exporters with large business capacity also received a higher income. In order to increase production and export of cabbages, it is recommended that government supports several programs such as increase innovation technologies dissemination, improve infrastructures for export as well as develop the simple administration process.</p>

Do rational bubbles exist in emerging markets of SAARC?

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-182
Author(s):  
Mian Sajid Nazir ◽  
Javeria Mahmood ◽  
Fizza Abbas ◽  
Ayesha Liaqat
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rational Bubbles ◽  
Emerging Capital Markets ◽  
Investing Value ◽  
High Level

Purpose The upsurge of globalization has made investors cautious toward investing decisions, and, resultantly, sophisticated techniques of forecasting and analyzing the stock markets have emerged. Particularly, this trend has gained momentum in emerging economies. One such trend is to overcome the investing risks associated with formation of rational bubbles. Bubbles are formed when asset prices inflate to a very high level temporarily, and they ultimately burst. Investors may take advantage of this short-lived phenomenon and gain high returns, but may also suffer as the entire investing value declines when the bubble bursts. The purpose of this paper is to identify rational bubbles in the emerging capital markets of South Asian region. Design/methodology/approach The monthly data have been obtained from June 1997 to February 2018 for Pakistan, Bombay, Dhaka and Colombo stock markets, and supremum-Augmented Dicky Fuller test developed by Phillips and Yu (2011) has been utilized to identify the rational bubbles. Findings The results revealed the presence of rational bubbles in South Asian equity markets. The current study is of significant nature for the facilitation of investors in future-making investing decisions concerning with the formation of rational bubbles. Originality/value Several studies have been conducted on stock markets of developed regions. Specific bubble episodes, which occurred previously, have helped the researchers and investors in gaining plenty of insights. A lot of studies have been conducted on the SAARC region as well. But they have used the conventional unit root test for bubble identification and not used as extensive data as, in this study, have been taken. This research is aimed to study equity prices of the four stock markets to establish the fact that if rational bubbles exist in the index, they are reflected in the returns or not.

Entrepreneurship Policies and New Business Performance and Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Manufacturing Industries

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
José A Belso Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Entrepreneurship Policy ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
New Business ◽  
High Level

Entrepreneurship policy is an emerging area among economic policy developments that is currently not well developed. Policy makers are seeking to increase countries' and regions' entrepreneurial vitality in recognition of the growing evidence that a high level of entrepreneurial activity contributes to economic growth and development. I report the results of a cross-sectional empirical analysis that was conducted to test the contribution of different types of entrepreneurship development programs to new business performance and growth. A sample of seventy-two Spanish footwear entrepreneurs were contacted and surveyed during 2000. Major findings suggest that some of the analyzed public policies significantly favor new business profitability and growth. These results should be taken with care because of the sample size, the profile of the economic sector analyzed, and the restricted geographical location of the new businesses considered in this research.

The Relationship between Economics Growth and Energy Consumption in China-A Empirical Analysis Based on Energy Kuznets Curve

2014 ◽  
Vol 1073-1076 ◽  
pp. 2457-2461
Author(s):  
Chang Sheng Li ◽  
Qing Ling Li ◽  
Zhong Min Lei ◽  
Han Yang ◽  
Hui Qing Qu
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Relative High Level

These paper investigated the relationship between economics development and energy demands based on Energy Kuznets Curve (EFC) in China. The results show that, the prospects of economics and energy demand in China in further will undergo three important stages to 2050.The peak of energy demand maybe around 2035 and the corresponding total energy demand maybe amount 5.7 billion tce. In 2035, the GDP per capital maybe about 17000 (2005 US$) and the urbanization will reach a relative high level. It is urgent for China to take actions to curb the increasing total energy consumption.

Fiscal decentralization in Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Im Gon Cho
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
National Government ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Local Taxes ◽  
Local Municipalities ◽  
High Level

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to make policy recommendations for the current fiscal decentralization discussion by examining the operating mechanisms of local taxes, unconditional grants, and conditional grants within the fiscal relationships between the national government and local governments in Korea. Design/methodology/approach After examining the current fiscal relationships between the national government and the local governments, this paper analyzes trends of local taxes, unconditional grants from both national and high-level local governments, and conditional grants from both national and high-level (or provincial level) local governments between 2002 and 2015. Local governments are classified into high-level local governments, and three types of low-level local governments are: si, kun, and ku. Findings Since the structure of local government finances in Korea is very complicatedly intertwined, the present decentralization discussion regarding increasing the share of local tax revenues may not achieve its purpose of fiscal decentralization. The authorities in charge of revenue allocation should be first decentralized at high-level local governments; high-level local governments should then arrange unconditional and conditional grants from high-level local governments to low-level local governments while taking into consideration unconditional and conditional grants from the national government to low-level governments. Originality/value The dichotomy between the central government and local municipalities has been utilized in the existing discussion regarding fiscal decentralization in Korea, but this study highlights the important resource allocation roles of high-level local governments.

Educational mismatches and labor market outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 534-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piriya Pholphirul
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Market Outcomes ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labor Force Survey ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
High Level

Purpose Educational mismatches constitute negative impacts on labor markets in most countries, Thailand is no exception. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the degree of educational mismatch in Thailand and its impacts on labor market outcomes. Design/methodology/approach This study analyzes data obtained from Thailand’s Labor Force Survey to estimate the likelihood of horizontal and vertical mismatches and their impacts on labor market outcomes. Findings Estimation results reveal the existence of a high level of both vertical and horizontal mismatches in the labor market. The vertical mismatch tends to be most prevalent in the case of graduates with degrees in the social sciences, while the existence of the horizontal mismatch is mostly found in the case of graduates with backgrounds in the physical sciences. Samples with a degree in health science seem to be least impacted by both types of mismatch. Education-job mismatches, either vertical or horizontal mismatches, are found to cause negative impacts on workers’ employment. Findings indicate that workers who encountered either horizontal or vertical educational mismatches tended to have lower monthly incomes than did those without such mismatches. Vertical mismatches seemed to result in lower incomes than did the horizontal mismatches. Furthermore, both types of mismatch are found to not have any significant impact on workers’ employability. Research limitations/implications Nevertheless, due to different types of mismatches such as skill mismatch or personality mismatch, this paper only quantifies degree mismatch on the context of Thailand only. Nevertheless, different structure of labor market can show different findings. Practical implications Both horizontal mismatch and vertical mismatch can be mitigated with strong collaboration system between colleges/universities and employers. Therefore, the government should further promote better cooperation between universities and the private sector (industry-university linkages) by encouraging more exchanges between high-level executives and students of the private sector and higher-education institutes. More opportunities for students to practice their skills in real workplace settings should be provided, and students should also be able to gain credits from participating in such training. In Thailand, at present there are only a few degree programs that require students to complete an internship. Social implications As for social policy recommendations, to reduce both horizontal and vertical mismatches in practices, it is essential that the education sector promote a life-long learning framework that allows workers whose jobs do not match their educational background (or with their educational attainment) to receive the training and develop the skills required by employers. Originality/value Comparing to other literature in these areas in which survey data from the authors are relied, this paper, however, uses the Thai Labor Force Survey, which is the national representative sample data set. The results found from this paper are therefore useful to be reliable on implying appropriated policy recommendations.

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