scholarly journals Simulations of frequency, intensity and tracks of cyclonic disturbances in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-174
Author(s):  
O. P. SINGH
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Cyclonic Disturbances ◽  
Monsoon Depressions

The paper presents the results of simulation experiments conducted for the assessment of likely changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) resulting from global climate change. Two experiments were performed, namely the ‘control’ (CTL) experiment in which the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere was fixed as per 1990 levels and the ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) experiment in which an annual compound increase of 1% from 1990 onwards was introduced. CTL and GHG experiments of 20 years length were performed for the period 2041-2060. The model used is the regional climate model Had RM2 of the Hadley Centre of Climate Prediction and Research, U.K.    The results have brought out some significant changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the North Indian Ocean (BOB and AS). The most significant likely change is the increase in the frequency of post-monsoon storms in the Bay of Bengal. The experiments show an increase of about 50% in the post-monsoonal cyclogenesis by 2041-2060 as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The frequency of monsoon depressions / storms in the BOB is likely to decrease considerably during June-August. Due to varying impacts in different seasons, the annual frequency of cyclonic disturbances may change marginally in the BOB. In the Arabian Sea, however the model has simulated a significant reduction in the frequency which may be halved by the period 2041-2060. The results show intensification of storms during May-June and September-November. The monsoon depressions  during July-August are  likely to become less intense.   In GHG experiment most of the post-monsoon storms have a tendency to strike north Andhra-Orissa coasts whereas in CTL experiment the storms strike coast from Tamilnadu to south Orissa. Thus, the focus of post-monsoon storms in the BOB is likely to shift northwards from Tamilnadu-Andhra Pradesh coast to north Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coast. Another important simulated change in storm tracks is that more number of pre-monsoon storms in the BOB may have a tendency to recurve north or northeastwards by 2041-2060.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the frequency of severe cyclones of Bay of Bengal : Observations and simulations

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
O. P. SINGH
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Long Term Trends

The east coast of India and the coasts of Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are vulnerable to the incidence of tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal. Every year these cyclones inflict heavy loss of life and property in this region. Global climate change resulting from anthropogenic activity is likely to manifest itself in the weather and climate of the Bay of Bengal region also. The long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal during intense cyclonic months May, October and November is one such problem which has been addressed in the present paper.Utilizing the existing data of 129 years (1877-2005) pertaining to the tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the Bay of Bengal during May, October and November, a study was undertaken to investigate the trends in the frequency of Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) during past decades. The results of the trend analysis reveal that the SCS frequency over the Bay of Bengal has registered significant increasing trends in past 129 years during the intense cyclonic months. It may be emphasized that these trends are long-term trends for more than hundred years based on statistical analyses which do not necessarily imply that SCS frequency has increased continuously decade after decade. As a matter of fact there has been a slight decrease in SCS frequency after peaking in the pentad 1966-1970, but this does not alter the long-term trend much. The intensification rate during November, which accounts for highest number of intense cyclones in the north Indian Ocean, has registered a steep rise of 26% per hundred years, implying that a tropical depression forming in the Bay of Bengal during November has a high probability to reach to severe cyclone stage. A regional climate model simulation revealed the enhanced cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal during May, October and November as a result of increased anthropogenic emissions in the atmosphere

scholarly journals Trend of shift in the area of cyclo-genesis over north Indian Ocean

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58
Author(s):  
CHARAN SINGH ◽  
B. R. LOE
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
North Indian Ocean

ABSTRACT. Cyclo-genesis over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) has been studied with reference to the formation and shift of cyclo-genesis area. The frequency of formation of cyclones during a particular month and year for the period of study has been presented. The study has shown that the maximum number of cyclo-genesis occurred during the month of July followed by August and September. Cyclo-genesis was about three times more in the Bay of Bengal as compared to that in the Arabian Sea. Areas favourable for cyclo-genesis were found between Lat. 15.0° N to 22.5° N and Long. 86.0° E to 92.0° E over the Bay of Bengal and Lat. 7.0° N to 12.5° N and 60.0° E to 74.0° E over the Arabian sea while meander over north Indian ocean, some times its shift significantly. Standard deviation of number of cyclones has been computed for the decades from 1891-2000. It was found that it was maximum (1.96) during 1941-1950 followed by 1981-1990 (1.92).

THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell ◽  
G.I. Pearman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

Enhanced double-diffusive salt flux from the high-salinity core of Arabian Sea origin waters to the Bay of Bengal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenson V. George ◽  
P.N. Vinayachandran ◽  
Anoop A. Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Salt Flux ◽  
High Salinity Water ◽  
The North ◽  
Salt Fingering ◽  
Double Diffusive

AbstractThe inflow of high saline water from the Arabian Sea (AS) into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and its subsequent mixing with the relatively fresh BoB water is vital for the North Indian Ocean salt budget. During June–September, Summer Monsoon Current carries high salinity water from the AS to the BoB. A time series of microstructure and hydrographic data collected from 4–14 July 2016 in the Southern BoB (8°N, 89°E) showed the presence of subsurface (60–150 m) high-salinity core. The high-salinity core was comprised of relatively warm and saline AS water overlying the relatively cold and fresh BoB water. Lower part of the high-salinity core showed double-diffusive salt fingering instability. Salt fingering staircases with varying thickness (up to 10 m) in the temperature and salinity profiles were also observed at the base of high-salinity core at approximately 75–150 m depth. The average downward diapycnal salt flux out of the high salinity core due to the effect of salt fingering was 2.8×10−7 kg m−2 s−1; approximately one order of magnitude higher than the flux if salt fingering were neglected.

scholarly journals Trends in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances and their intensification over Indian seas

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-118
Author(s):  
A. K. SRIVASTAVA ◽  
K. C. SINHA RAY ◽  
U. S. DE
Keyword(s):  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Cyclonic Disturbances ◽  
Indian Seas

Trends in cyclonic disturbances for the period 1891-1997 were studied over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. It is noticed that there is a significant decreasing trend at 99% level of confidence in the frequency of storms. The slopes of decreasing trend in cyclonic activity over Bay of Bengal and that over Arabian Sea were found to be maximum during last four decades. Weakening of Hadley circulation due to upper tropospheric warming may be one of the cause of this decreasing trend. There appears to be decrease in intensification of cyclonic disturbances in recent period.

Pseudanthias vizagensis, a junior synonym of Pseudanthias pillai Heemstra & Akhilesh, 2012 (Perciformes: Serranidae)

Zootaxa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4890 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-147
Author(s):  
K.V. AKHILESH ◽  
T.G. KISHORE ◽  
M. MUKTHA ◽  
M.W. LISHER ◽  
GOP P. AMBARISH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Original Description ◽  
Junior Synonym ◽  
Andaman Sea ◽  
Northern Indian Ocean ◽  
Additional Material ◽  
Bay Of Bengal Coast

Pseudanthias vizagensis Krishna, Rao and Venu, 2017 was described from 44 specimens, collected from Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), on the Bay of Bengal coast of India, but without clear designation of a holotype. The characters used for differentiating the species from its nearest congener Pseudanthias pillai Heemstra & Akhilesh, 2012, a species currently known only from the northern Indian Ocean, were limited, poor and substantially overlapping. Examination of additional material of P. pillai from the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and comparison with the original description and images of P. vizagensis revealed that the latter is a junior synonym of P. pillai. Diagnostic characters are reviewed, additional morphological details and fresh colouration, including sexual dimorphic characters not covered in previous works are provided. 

scholarly journals Role of Rossby Waves in the Remote Effects of the North Indian Ocean Tropical Disturbances

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (11) ◽  
pp. 3620-3633 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. V. Ratnam ◽  
S. K. Behera ◽  
Y. Masumoto ◽  
T. Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Remote effects due to the tropical disturbances in the north Indian Ocean are investigated by analyzing long-lasting (≥5 days) tropical disturbances, which reached at least the strength of tropical storms. The present analysis is carried out for both the pre- and postmonsoon periods. The spatial and temporal distribution of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) during the premonsoon disturbances over the Bay of Bengal reveals several interesting features. Temporal distribution of the OLR anomalies shows that the intraseasonal oscillations play an important role in the formation of those disturbances. The spatial distribution of the OLR anomalies shows a dipole with negative OLR anomalies over the bay and positive OLR anomalies over the Indonesian region. The atmospheric response to the negative OLR anomalies results in positive temperature anomalies over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, remote from the disturbance; and the response to the positive anomalies causes slight increase in the sea surface temperature of the Arabian Sea. Negative OLR anomalies are also seen over western Japan due to the Rossby waves generated by the heating over the Bay of Bengal besides the enhancement of the so-called “Pacific–Japan” teleconnection pattern. However, the analysis shows that the postmonsoon disturbances over the Bay of Bengal and the disturbances formed over the Arabian Sea in both pre- and postmonsoon seasons do not develop remote teleconnections associated with the above type of Rossby wave mechanism. These results are significant for the short- to medium-range weather forecast over a wide range covering Japan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

scholarly journals Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 799-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. S. Jones ◽  
N. Christidis ◽  
P. A. Stott
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract. Past research has shown that the dominant influence on recent global climate changes is from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases with implications for future increases in global temperatures. One mitigation proposal is to reduce black carbon aerosol emissions. How much warming can be offset by controlling black carbon is unclear, especially as its influence on past climate has not been previously unambiguously detected. In this study observations of near-surface warming over the last century are compared with simulations using a climate model, HadGEM1. In the simulations black carbon, from fossil fuel and bio-fuel sources (fBC), produces a positive radiative forcing of about +0.25 Wm−2 over the 20th century, compared with +2.52 Wm−2 for well mixed greenhouse gases. A simulated warming of global mean near-surface temperatures over the twentieth century from fBC of 0.14 ± 0.1 K compares with 1.06 ± 0.07 K from greenhouse gases, −0.58 ± 0.10 K from anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use changes and 0.09 ± 0.09 K from natural influences. Using a detection and attribution methodology, the observed warming since 1900 has detectable influences from anthropogenic and natural factors. Fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon is found to have a detectable contribution to the warming over the last 50 yr of the 20th century, although the results are sensitive to the period being examined as fBC is not detected for the later fifty year period ending in 2006. The attributed warming of fBC was found to be consistent with the warming from fBC unscaled by the detection analysis. This study suggests that there is a possible significant influence from fBC on global temperatures, but its influence is small compared to that from greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Trond Iversen ◽  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Diurnal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The diurnal temperature range (DTR), or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within one day, is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore crucial. Since physically different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, have distinct influences on global and regional climate, predicting the future evolution of DTR requires knowledge of the effects of individual climate forcers, as well as of the future emissions mix, in particular in high emission regions. Using global climate model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we investigate how idealized changes in the atmospheric levels of a greenhouse gas (CO2) and aerosols (black carbon and sulfate) influence DTR, globally and in selected regions. We find broad geographical patterns of annual mean change that are similar between climate drivers, pointing to a generalized response to global warming which is not defined by the individual forcing agents. Seasonal and regional differences, however, are substantial, which highlights the potential importance of local background conditions and feedbacks. While differences in DTR responses among drivers are minor in Europe and North America, there are distinctly different DTR responses to aerosols and greenhouse gas perturbations over India and China, where present aerosol emissions are particularly high. BC induces substantial reductions in DTR, which we attribute to strong modelled BC-induced cloud responses in these regions.

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