scholarly journals Liver cancer mortality over six decades in an epidemic area: what we have learned

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10600
Author(s):  
Jian-Guo Chen ◽  
Jian Zhu ◽  
Yong-Hui Zhang ◽  
Yong-Sheng Chen ◽  
Jian-Hua Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cancer Registration ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Cancer Etiology ◽  
The Past ◽  
Epidemic Area

Background and aims: Liver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention. Methods Mortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program. Results The natural death rate during 1958–2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/105 to 240/105. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/105 to 80/105, and then dropped to less than 52/105 in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972–2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/105, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/105, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/105. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/105 and 29.92/105, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40–44, 35–39, 30–34, 25–29, 20–24, 15–19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70–74, and 75+ increased. Conclusions The crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.

scholarly journals All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984–2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2068
Author(s):  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Songbo Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Males And Females

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984–2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55–59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of “rise first and then fall,” and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904–1908 to 1989–1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 283
Author(s):  
Irena Ilic ◽  
Sandra Sipetic Grujicic ◽  
Jovan Grujicic ◽  
Djordje Radovanovic ◽  
Ivana Zivanovic Macuzic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
The World

Background and Objectives: Trends of liver cancer mortality vary widely around the world. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of liver cancer mortality in Serbia. Material and Methods: Descriptive epidemiological study design was used in this research. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the World standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), according to joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to evaluate the underlying factors for liver cancer mortality trends. Results: In Serbia from 1991 to 2015, over 11,000 men and nearly 8000 women died from liver cancer. The trend in liver cancer mortality significantly decreased both in men (AAPC = −1.3%; 95% CI = −1.7 to −0.9) and women (AAPC = −1.5%; 95% CI = −1.9 to −1.1). For liver cancer mortality, statistically significant cohort and period effects were observed in both genders. Conclusions: The downward trends in liver cancer mortality in Serbia are recorded during the past decades.

scholarly journals Global Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates, the Role of Human Development Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Mokhtar Soheylizad ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Erfan Ayubi ◽  
Ensiyeh Jenabi ◽  
Yousef Veisani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Negative Effect

Introduction: Liver cancer (LC) is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide which have been a major public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to identify the global effect of HDI in the incidence and mortality rates of liver LC. Material and Methods: Data about the incidence and mortality rate of LC for the year 2012 was obtained from the global cancer project for 172 countries. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained for 169 countries from the United Nations Development Programme database in 2012. Linear regression models were used for assessment of the HDI effect on LC occurrence rates. Inequality in the age-specific incidence and mortality rates (ASR) of LC according to the HDI were assessed by using the concentration index.Results: Linear regression model showed that increasing of HDI had a negative effect on the increase in both incidence (B=-12.2, P=0.03) and mortality (B=-12.7, P=0.015) rates of LC. The mean of life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, GNI per capita, percent of urbanization, and age-standardized obesity had also a negative effect on increasing in both incidence and mortality rates.Conclusion: incidence and mortality rate of LC are significantly concentrated in regions with medium and low HDI. The negative relationship between LC incidence and mortality with HDI and its component can be considered as targets for prevention and treatment intervention or tracking geographic disparities.

scholarly journals Depressive symptoms and risk of liver-related mortality in individuals with hepatitis B virus infection: a cohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
In Young Cho ◽  
Yoosoo Chang ◽  
Eunju Sung ◽  
Won Sohn ◽  
Jae-Heon Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Hepatitis B Virus ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Hbv Infection ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
B Virus ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractThe impact of depression on the risk of liver-related mortality in individuals with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unclear. We examined the association between depression, HBV infection, and liver-related mortality. A total of 342,998 Korean adults who underwent health examinations were followed for up to 7.8 years. Depressive symptoms were defined as a Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression score ≥ 16. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During 1,836,508 person-years of follow-up, 74 liver-related deaths and 54 liver cancer deaths were identified (liver-related mortality rate of 4.0 per 105 person-years and liver cancer mortality rate of 2.9 per 105 person-years). Subjects with depressive symptoms had an increased risk of liver-related mortality with a corresponding multivariable aHR of 2.00 (95% CI 1.10–3.63) compared to those without depressive symptoms. This association was more evident in HBsAg-positive participants with a corresponding multivariable aHR of 4.22 (95% CI 1.81–9.88) than HBsAg-negative participants (P for interaction by HBsAg positivity = 0.036). A similar pattern was observed in relation to liver cancer mortality. In this large cohort, depressive symptoms were associated with an increased risk of liver-related mortality, with a stronger association in HBsAg-positive individuals.

scholarly journals An age-period-cohort analysis of mortality rates for stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer among prefectures in Japan, 1999–2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasuku Okui
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Cancer Types

Abstract Background Although change in the birth cohort effect on cancer mortality rates is known to be highly associated with the decreasing rates of age-standardized cancer mortality rates in Japan, the differences in the trends of cohort effect for representative cancer types among the prefectures remain unknown. This study aimed to investigate the differences in the decreasing rate of cohort effects among the prefectures for representative cancer types using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods Data on stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer mortality for each prefecture and the population data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Vital Statistics in Japan. Mortality data for individuals aged 50 to 79 years grouped in 5-year increments were used, and corresponding birth cohorts born 1920–1924 through 1964–1978 were used for analysis. We estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort on each type of mortality rate for each prefecture by sex. Then, we calculated the decreasing rates of cohort effects for each prefecture. We also calculated the mortality rate ratio of each prefecture compared with all of Japan for cohorts using the estimates. Results As a result of APC analysis, we found that the decreasing rates of period effects were small and that there was a little difference in the decreasing rates among prefectures for all types of cancer among both sexes. On the other hand, there was a large difference in the decreasing rates of cohort effects for stomach and liver cancer mortality rates among prefectures, particularly for men. For men, the decreasing rates of cohort effects in cohorts born between 1920–1924 and 1964–1978 varied among prefectures, ranging from 4.1 to 84.0% for stomach cancer and from 20.2 to 92.4% for liver cancers, respectively. On the other hand, the differences in the decreasing rates of cohort effects among prefectures for colorectal and lung cancer were relatively smaller. Conclusions The decreasing rates of cohort effects for stomach and liver cancer varied widely among prefectures. It is possible that this will influence cancer mortality rates in each prefecture in the future.

Liver cancer mortality rate model in Thailand

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wattanavadee Sriwattanapongse ◽  
Sukon Prasitwattanaseree
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Rate Model

scholarly journals Long-term trends of liver cancer mortality by gender in urban and rural areas in China: an age-period-cohort analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. e020490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Sun ◽  
Yanhong Wang ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Kailiang Cheng ◽  
Xinyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas

ObjectivesTo provide an up-to-date overview of long-term trends of liver cancer mortality and evaluate the effects attributable to age, period and cohort in Chinese population stratified by gender and urban/rural areas.MethodsPopulation and liver cancer mortality data were obtained based on the Disease Surveillance Points in China from 1991 to 2014. To examine the time trends of liver cancer mortality by gender in urban and rural areas in China, Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the annual per cent change. The intrinsic estimator, a method of age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age, period and cohort effects simultaneously, was used to analyse the underlying mechanisms for liver cancer mortality trends in the aforementioned four groups.ResultsWe observed a significant decline in liver cancer mortality for urban men (average annual per cent change (AAPC)=−1.1%, P<0.05) and urban women (AAPC=−1.4%, P<0.05), while the liver cancer mortality remained stable for rural men (AAPC=−0.1%, P>0.05) and rural women (AAPC=−0.9%, P>0.05). Compared with the 15–19 age group, the liver cancer mortality risk of the 85 and above age group increased 65 and 42 times for urban and rural men, and 102 and 70 times for urban and rural women. From the 1990–1994 period to the 2005–2009 period, the risk increased 56% and 92% for urban and rural men, and 30% and 74% for urban and rural women. Compared with period and cohort effects, age effects were the most influential factor in liver cancer mortality.ConclusionsAs the status of ageing population in China gets worse, the burden caused by liver cancer mortality could still be a great challenge for China in the future. The disparity of liver cancer mortality trends between urban and rural residents can be attributed to period effects, referring to the unequal medical levels and resources between urban and rural areas.

scholarly journals Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality in Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 8589-8594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihwan Park ◽  
Yon Ho Jee
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cohort Analysis

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 2878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Sumaira Mubarik ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Lu Wang ◽  
Yafeng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Long Term Trends

Liver cancer (LC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths: this study aims to present the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects of the incidence of and mortality from LC in China during 1990–2017. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We determined trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) using Joinpoint regression. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis was performed to describe the long-term trends with intrinsic estimator methods. The ASMR decreased markedly before 2013 and increased thereafter, with overall average annual percent change (AAPC) values of −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.6%, −0.3%) for men and −1.3% (−1.6%, −1.0%) for women during 1990–2017. The ASIR significantly increased by 0.2% (0.1%, 0.3%) in men and decreased by 1.1% (−1.2%, −1.0%) in women from 1990 to 2017. The risks of LC incidence and mortality increased with age in both genders. The period effect risk ratios (RRs) of incidence and mortality displayed similar monotonic increasing trends in men and remained stable in women. The cohort effect showed an overall downward trend and almost overlapping incidence and mortality in both genders, and later birth cohorts experienced lower RRs than previous birth cohorts. Older age, recent period, and birth before 1923 were associated with a higher risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality. The net age and period effects showed an increasing trend, while the cohort effects presented a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality risk. As China’s population aging worsens and with the popularization of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden caused by liver cancer will remain a huge challenge in China’s future.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document