The provincial trend of population aging in China – based on population expansion forecast formula

China is one of the countries that have entered the stage of population aging. At present, the phenomenon of aging population has become a widespread concern of the whole society. Scientific and accurate prediction of aging population will help relevant departments to formulate specific countermeasures. This paper uses the Yearbook of China’s 1% population sampling survey in 2015 and the data published by the National Bureau of statistics. Based on the basic population prediction formula, the population prediction formula is established by using the index extrapolation method to predict the population aging development trend of provinces and cities in China from 2020 to 2050. The results show that: China’s aging degree will continue to increase, the size of the elderly population will continue to increase, 2020–2030 will be a period of rapid growth of the national population aging, after then the aging ratio will decline. The government should formulate security countermeasures for the elderly from various aspects as soon as possible and actively respond to aging the population.

Analysis of Asymmetrical Deformation of Surface and Oblique Pipeline Caused by Shield Tunneling along Curved Section

The deformation of existing pipelines caused by the tunneling of a shield machine along curved sections has not been sufficiently researched, and a corresponding theoretical prediction formula is lacking. This paper derives a prediction formula for the deformation of an existing pipeline caused by shield machine tunneling along a curved section. Further, a finite difference model (FDM) corresponding to an actual project is built. Finally, the deformation of the surface and existing pipelines caused by shield machine tunneling along the curved section is analyzed. The research results show that the results of theoretical prediction, FDM calculation, and field monitoring data are consistent. In addition, the deformation of the surface and the existing pipeline are asymmetrically distributed when the shield machine tunnels along the curve section instead of symmetrically distributed (for straight line segment). When the pipeline is perpendicular to the tunnel axis, the maximum deformation position of the existing pipeline deviates from the tunnel axis by about 0.5 times the tunnel radius. In addition, as the angle β between the pipeline axis and the tunnel axis increases, the maximum deformation position of the pipeline gradually approaches the tunnel axis.

Development of a Prediction Model to Estimate the Glycemic Load of Ready-to-Eat Meals

The glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) of a single food item has been used to monitor blood glucose level. However, concerns regarding the clinical relevance of the GI or GL have been raised on their applicability to a combination of several foods consumed as meal. This study aimed to investigate the glycemic response after consuming commercially purchased ready-to-eat meal and to develop the GL prediction formula using the composition of nutrients in each meal. Glycemic responses were measured in healthy adults with various mixed meals comprising approximately 25 g, 50 g, and 75 g of carbohydrates. After fasting, participants consumed test meals, and the glycemic response was measured for a subsequent 120 min. The GI and GL values for mixed meals were calculated as area under curve for each participant. For the prediction formula, 70 mixed meals were analyzed, of which the GI and GL values of 64 participants were used. The prediction formula produced was as follows: GL = 19.27 + (0.39 × available carbohydrate) – (0.21 × fat) – (0.01 × protein2) – (0.01 × fiber2). We hope that this prediction formula can be used as a useful tool to estimate the GL after consuming ready-to-eat meals.

Prediction of Best Corrected Visual Acuity with Hard Contact Lenses for Keratoconus Patients

Background: To develop a prediction formula for best corrected visual acuity with hard contact lenses (HCL-BCVA) and to identify clinical factors linearly related to HCL-BCVA in keratoconus patients. Methods: This retrospective study examined clinical data derived from 198 eyes of 131 keratoconus patients. The subjects were divided into a development group (102 eyes of 68 subjects) and a validation group (96 eyes of 63 subjects) on the basis of the date of their examination. HCL-BCVA measurement and anterior segment–optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) were performed. A prediction formula for HCL-BCVA based on AS-OCT measurements was then developed. Single regression analysis was performed to identify clinical factors linearly related to HCL-BCVA. Results: Stepwise multiple regression analysis yielded a prediction formula for HCL-BCVA in keratoconus patients, with the correlation coefficient of the multiple regression equation being 0.728 (R2 = 0.530) for the development group. Application of the prediction formula to the validation group yielded a correlation coefficient for the multiple regression equation of 0.641 (R2 = 0.411). Single regression analysis identified anterior corneal refractive power, posterior corneal refractive power, and high-order aberrations as factors that are linearly correlated with HCL-BCVA, with R values of 0.606, -0.617, and 0.506, respectively. Conclusion: HCL-BCVA in keratoconus patients was predictable on the basis of AS-OCT measurements. Cutoff values for clinical factors found to correlate with HCL-BCVA may prove informative with regard to treatment options to maintain a favorable visual acuity in keratoconus patients.

Evaluation of Relationship between Mesiodistal Width of Permanent Canines and Premolars with Permanent Lower First Molars and Incisors for Space Analysis

Introduction: One of the simplest methods to predict mesiodistal width of permanent canines and premolars is using Tanaka and Johnston’s prediction formula; however, dental size varies according to race. The study aimed to examine the relationship between incisors mesiodistal width and mandibular first molar’s with mesiodistal width of maxillary and mandibular canines and premolars and to determine the reliability of Tanaka and Johnston prediction formula. Materials & Methods: In the present cross-sectional study, 200 pairs of a dental cast of 12-25 years old were selected and the greatest mesiodistal width of canines and premolars crown in each jaw and incisors and mandibular first molars were measured with a digital caliper with 0.01 resolution. Data were analyzed using regression analysis, t-test (p value < 0.05). Results: There was a significant statistical difference between actual width and Tanaka and Johnston prediction formula in the group under study (p value < 0.001). Moreover, a new linear equation for the prediction of mesiodistal width of maxillary and mandibular canines and premolars based on mesiodistal width of lower incisors and mandibular first molars was developed using regression analysis. Conclusion: In statistical terms, Tanaka and Johnston’s prediction formula is not applicable for the population under study because maxillary estimated measures were a little high and mandibular estimated measures were a little low.

Influence of lens position as detected by an anterior segment analysis system on postoperative refraction in cataract surgery

AIM: To predict postoperative intraocular lens (IOL) position using the Sirius anterior segment analysis system and investigate the effect of lens position and IOL type on postoperative refraction. METHODS: A total of 97 patients (102 eyes) were enrolled in the final analysis. An anterior segment biometry measurement was performed preoperatively with Sirius and Lenstar. The results of predicted lens position (PLP) and IOL power were automatically calculated by the software used by the instruments. Effective lens position (ELP) was measured manually using Sirius 3mo postoperatively. Pearson’s correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were used to determine the correlation of lens position to other parameters. RESULTS: PLP and ELP were positively correlated to axial length (AL; r=0.42, P<0.0001 and r=0.49, P<0.0001, respectively). There was a weak correlation between the peLP (ELP-PLP) and the prediction error of spherical refraction (peSR; r=0.34, P<0.0001). The peLP of Softec HD IOL differed statistically from those of both the TECNIS ZCB00 and Sensor AR40E IOLs. Multiple linear regression was used to obtain the prediction formula: ELP=0.66+0.63× [aqueous depth (AQD)+0.6LT] (r=0.61, P<0.0001), and a new variable (AQD+0.6 LT) was found to have the strongest correlation with ELP. CONCLUSION: The Sirius anterior segment analysis system is helpful to predict ELP, which reduces postoperative refraction error.

FORECASTING AN VIBRATION BY MONITORING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGES ITS PRECURSORS OF VARIOUS PHYSICAL NATURE

Prediction crosses all fields of Science, being itself the evident manifestation of the Scientific Method. This study addresses the delicate aspect of vibration forecasting, which considers the association and interaction between the variables involved, such as radio anomalies, the proton density of the solar wind preceding strong vibration. The analysis is based on the collection of about 800 data of vibration of range equal to or greater than 6 occurred on a global scale between 2012 and 2014, related to solar wind and radio anomalies detected before the disastrous Tohoku vibration of March 11, 2011. To discuss the data has been applied the deductive logic, which allows to make predictions from the hypotheses, formulated in a mathematical way. In this context, the mechanisms of triggering vibration are hypothesized with an interaction of electrical nature, at subatomic scale. The outcome of the research has shown encouraging results on the application of the prediction formula, reinforced by the control of its parameters.

Statistical analysis of the bonding properties of the fabric-reinforced cementitious matrix for strengthening masonry structures

The fabric-reinforced cementitious matrix (FRCM) has been extensively studied and applied for the strengthening of masonry structures. Special attention needs to be given to the bonding properties between the FRCM and masonry substrate for strengthening applications. This paper presents a statistical analysis of the bonding properties based on the available literature. First, the collected test results were discussed in terms of the interfacial failure mode. Second, the factors influencing the ultimate bond load were analysed based on the different failure modes, and a corresponding prediction formula was further determined via regression analysis for interfacial debonding and slippage failures. Then, the characteristic values of the ultimate bond load were determined via a probabilistic method. Finally, the fracture energy for the slippage failure at the fabric-matrix interface was analysed, and a corresponding prediction formula was obtained via regression analysis. Additionally, some of the collected test results present higher dispersion due to the large variability of the FRCM material properties and the differences in the testing procedures used by different institutions. More studies are needed to improve the reliability of the proposed procedure.

Research on Formation Identification Based on Drilling Shock and Vibration Parameters and Energy Principle

In geotechnical engineering and geological survey, the stratum structure and its corresponding physical and mechanical properties are the most concerned. The stratum structure not only affects the safety of the project but also plays a decisive role in the construction method and construction sequence. In this paper, a new type of stratum geological interface recognition system is adopted, and an R-20 rotary drilling rig is used to conduct on-site drilling experiments for a granite site with no ventilation. The research results show that the system can monitor and record the main parameters (axial pressure, drilling rate, rotation speed, flushing fluid pressure, and torque) of the drilling rig during the drilling process. The comparative analysis of monitoring data and on-site survey results shows that different drilling parameters have different sensitivities to changes in the formation structure. According to the prediction accuracy, the ranking from high to low is drilling rate, axial pressure, torque, rotation speed, and flushing fluid pressure. In drilling engineering, by observing the change law of drilling rig parameters, not only can the position of the special rock mass interlayer be predicted, but also the stratum structure and strength can be identified, and the prediction formula is also given. Based on the established drilling specific energy formula, the energy analysis method is used to predict the formation structure and compressive strength, and the corresponding prediction formula is given. The research results show that, compared with the single drilling parameter prediction method, the rock-soil structure and strength identification method based on energy theory has higher prediction accuracy and can meet engineering needs.