Abstract
Excessive or unreasonable use of agricultural chemicals has caused a wide range of negative effects on the environment and residents' health. It is urgent to promote the reduction of the use of agricultural chemicals. Taking the use of veterinary antibiotics (hereafter antibiotics) in broiler breeding as an example, based on the data of 380 contract farmers, this paper first investigated the effects of production risk on farmers' decision-making on the use of alternatives to antibiotics and the amount of antibiotics in the initial stage of alternatives entering into the market. The results show that: (1) the fluctuation of mortality in the lag period has no significant influence on the adoption of alternatives, and farmers are concerned about the absolute or average level of mortality in the lag period. (2) The mortality rate lagged three phases had a significant positive impact on the adoption of alternatives. On average, the mortality rate lagged three phases increased by 0.01, and the likelihood of farmers adopting substitutes in the early stage increased by 0.670%. (3) The production risk plays an important role in regulating the effects of alternatives. When using alternatives, the mortality rate of lagging three phases is higher, the higher the dosage of antibiotics and the lower the mortality rate in the early stage, suggesting that higher production risk would result in using alternatives for the purpose of reducing the production risk rather than reducing the use of antibiotics. Thus, to realize the effect of alternatives in reducing agricultural chemicals, the prerequisite is to improve the production risk management ability of farmers.