Perancangan Aplikasi Peramalan untuk Metode Exponential Smoothing Menggunakan Aplikasi Lazarus (Studi Kasus: Data Konsumsi Listrik Kota Samarinda)

Exponential smoothing is forecasting method used to predict the future. Lazarus is an open source software based on free pascal compiler. at this research, program Lazarus be design used exponential smoothing method to predict electricity consumption data in Samarinda City from September to November 2018. Purposed of this researched is to determine the procedure of building an exponential smoothing forecasting application and obtained forecasting result using the built application. Procedure of built the application are designed interface, designed properties and filled coding. The optimum smoothing parameters were obtained used the golden section method. Based on the analysis, electricity consumption data in Samarinda City shows a trend pattern, then the forecasting was used double exponential smoohting (DES) method are DES Brown and DES Holt. The best forecasting method for at this researched is DES Holt, because DES Holt method produced MAPE 0,0659% less than DES Brown method produced MAPE 0,0843%.

Pemodelan Semiparametrik Geographical Weighted Logistic Regression pada Data Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Tahun 2017

The level of poverty in a Regency/city in South Sulawesi in 2017 is different. The grouping of poverty status can be done based on the value of the HeadCount Index (HCI) of South Sulawesi. Factors affecting poverty will differ for each area being observed. The statistical modeling method developed for data analysis by taking into account the location factor is semiparametric Geographical Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR). The GWLR semiparametric Model consists of parameters that are affected by the location and not affected by the location. The parameter estimator of the GWLR semiparametric model used in this research was obtained using the maximum method likelihood estimation. The result of a semiparametric model of GWLR each district/city in South Sulawesi in 2017 has the value Estimator parameter for global parameters is the same value for each location, namely, a3 = 0.1724, a4 = 0.0204, and a6 = 0.0261 whereas the parameter estimator for local parameters has different values so that GWLR semiparametric model of each district/city.

Penerapan Model Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH Pada Data Saham

Stock is one of the popular financial market instruments. Issuing shares are one of the company's choices when deciding to fund a company. The uncertainty of stock prices in the stock market is an important event to be taken into consideration in making a decision by investors so that a model is needed to describe a stock event. GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) is a model with a conditional and variance time-dependent that describes the dynamics of stock volatility. This study discusses the DCC GARCH model equation which is applied to the LQ 45 data. The model obtained for BCA shares 𝑸t = + + so it can be concluded that DCC GARCH is more appropriate for BCA shares.

Pengaruh Indeks Massa Tubuh dan TrigliseridaTerhadap Gula Darah dengan Model Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Biprediktor

The regression approach can be carried out using three approaches namely parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. Nonparametric regression is a statistical method used to see the relationship between the response variable and the predictor variable when the shape of the data curve is unknown. Diabetes mellitus (DM) or commonly called diabetes is a disease that is found and observed in various parts of the world today. DM is often marked by a significant increase in blood sugar levels. In this study using blood sugar levels as response variables, body mass index and triglycerides as predictor variables. Data were analyzed using truncated linear spline with one, two and three point knots experiments. The best model is obtained based on the minimum generalized cross validation (GCV) value. The results obtained that the best model is linear spline using three point knots.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Penyapihan Bayi Umur Kurang Dari 6 Bulan Melalui Studi Cross Section

Weaning too early can affect the growth of the baby and the mother often ignores the nutritional needs of the baby. In addition, malnutrition is more common today than during the first 4-6 months of life. This is because many families do not understand the special needs of babies and are unable to provide food with good nutritional value. The type of research used is a survey with a cross-sectional study approach. The population is all mothers who have babies aged 6 months and the sample is all mothers who have babies aged 6 months. The sampling technique was simple random sampling. The results showed that there was a significant effect between mothers who did weaning for less than 6 months with education = 0.006. There is a significant effect between mothers who do weaning for less than 6 months with employment status = 0.008. There is a significant effect between mothers who do weaning less than 6 months with birth spacing = 0.007.

Pengelompokkan Tingkat Kriminalitas di Indonesia Menggunakan Algoritma Average Linkage

Crime needs to be analyzed and grouped so that the act does not cause harm either ecologically or psychologically. The statistical method that can be used to classify crime is the Average Linkage Algorithm. The study aims to group and analyze the characteristics of criminal cases in Indonesia. From the results of the analysis, 3 clusters were formed based on the average of each cluster. Cluster 1 consists of Aceh, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Kep. Bangka Belitung, Kep. Riau, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Banten, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Maluku, North Maluku and Papua. Cluster 2 consists of North Sumatra while Cluster 3 consists of Metro Jaya. The grouping results are the basis of the government, apparatus, and the community in implementing the handling of criminal acts that occur in each cluster area so that prevention can minimize the losses caused by these crimes.

Pemetaan Wilayah Potensi Bencana di Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah Menggunakan Analisis Korespondensi Sederhana

Disaster cases need to be analyzed considering that when a disaster occurs it will have an extraordinary impact. The statistical method that can be used to study disaster cases is a simple correspondence analysis. This study aims to map areas with the potential for natural disasters in the province of Central Sulawesi. So, in the analysis, regions are grouped according to row profile values that are greater than the average. The result of simple correspondence analysis obtained flood disaster has the potential to occur in Banggai, Morowali, Donggala, Buol, Parigi Moutong, Tojo Una-una, Sigi, and North Morowali. While the dominant tornado disaster occurred in Banggai Kepulauan, Banggai, Poso, Toli-toli, Parigi Moutong and Sigi. For regional landslides with potential Banggai Islands, Donggala, Toli-toli, Parigi Moutong, and Sigi. Then Banggai Islands and the City of Palu are the dominant regions for earthquake disasters. The results of the grouping can be the basis of government and community focus in tackling the dominant disasters occurring in their respective regions so as to minimize the impact when natural disasters occur.

Model Regresi Data Panel Pada Kasus Infeksi Saluran Pernapasan Akut (ISPA) di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur

Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is an infectious desease cause by bacteria or viruses that attack the respiratory organs. This research aims to determine the best panel data regression model in the case of the factors that influence the number of patients with ARI in East Nusa Tenggara Province from 2014 to 2018. Response variable used is the number of ARI patients. Independent variables were observed among others, low birth weight, malnutrition, immunization, exclusive breastfeeding, and vitamin A in 22 districts or city in East Nusa Tenggara. The results showed that the Random Effect Models eliminate outlier data on response variable is a model that can describe the influence of independent variables on the number of patients with ARI in East Nusa Tenggara Province from 2014 to 2018. Variables that influence of ARI are malnutrition and exclusive breastfeeding with a coefficient of determination (R) of 9,2%.

Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Laut Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Runtun Waktu Chen Orde Tinggi

The port has become an important part of people's lives. On certain days there is an increase in the number of ship passengers which can slow down operational activities from the port, thus causing a buildup of passengers at the port. therefore, the port must be prepared to deal with the buildup of passengers at the port. Based on this, the researchers made a prediction or forecasting the number of ship passengers at Makassar Soekarno Hatta Port in the coming period to find out how much the estimated number of passengers at Makassar Soekarno Hatta Port. The results of these studies can be input to the PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia IV (Persero ) Makassar if there will be a surge in passengers in the future period. researchers used the fuzzy method of high order chen time series in forecasting or prediction in this study . The researcher divides the data onto training and testing data . The results of the study using fuzzy time series with the best high order chen are that the second order produces MAPE error size of 0,143 , MSE 13470993,9 and MAE of 9478,52 . The result of prediction of testing data onto one period in the future is 52.608.

Structural Equation Modeling in Motivation Analysis for Millennial Participation Related to General Elections in Indonesia

Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a statistical technique used to build and test the statistical models are usually in the form of causal models. SEM is a combination from factor analysis, path analysis, and regression. This method is a statistical approach that serves to test hypotheses about the relationship between observed variables and latent variables. In this paper, SEM is applied to determine the motivation of the millennial generation for the general election 2019 in Indonesia. Data was obtained by distributing questionnaires online according to procedures which were then analyzed using SEM. Millennial’s motivation is seen from the knowledge of the millennial generation on voting rights commitments in the 2019 general election in Indonesia. Based on the result, millennial generation is committed to using voting rights in the 2019 general election. All indicator variables from this study are significant to the millennial generation’s commitment to use their voting rights