Fronts and Forms of Public Diplomacy

Public diplomacy becomes a more and more popular area of research due to several global trends: growing interdependence of states and the rise of transnational actors that urge governments to seek ways beyond their military and economic power to achieve their political goals; technological progress that makes information more accessible to the public, enabling international communication, thus increasing the importance of a dominating narrative; the rise of a human-centric approach placing the emphasis on individual people, protection and promotion of their rights, thus making public opinion more crucial to policy-makers than ever. However, there are still a lot of lacunae in the theoretical framework analyzing public diplomacy. Among them is the lack of a clear widely accepted classification of activities that fall into the area of public diplomacy. Some researchers choose to avoid typology altogether, others provide academic community with a variety of overlapping and contradicting approaches and terms, such as “dimensions”, “types”, “media”, “frameworks”, etc. After carefully studying related publications of international and Russian researchers, analyzing them and defining most common trends, the author proposes her own way to classify public diplomacy activities via two synergetic typologies. The first one offers a division by fronts based on the principal of the final goal of each front of public diplomacy: e.g. relationship-building activities and agenda-setting to influence the news. The second one implies a division by forms based on the principal of the general shape of the main types of public diplomacy activities: e.g. cultural diplomacy, international broadcasting. The author highlights that this approach does not involve multiplication of public diplomacy types based on the instrument (e.g. gastro-diplomacy, twitter-diplomacy, sport diplomacy), since each form may incorporate several instruments and the particular toolkit may change in time. The article suggests using both typologies for comprehensive research of public diplomacy (either in a case-study or for a theoretical model). However, a front-based classification can be more useful for studies related to strategic planning, long-term and short-term political goals of government, whereas a form-based classification can be more useful for researchers who focus on measuring a country’s public diplomacy effectiveness or seek to attribute a new instrument of public diplomacy

Brazil – Everyone Is on Their Own. Characteristics of Social Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis

The article is focused on the Brazil’s social policy before and during the first and the second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors highlight the specific features of the country’s social policy and at the social impact of the crisis, particularly looking at the example of the Brazilian criminal groups` participation in the fight against the pandemic. The article provides an overview of the measures adopted by the Brazilian Government to mitigate the negative consequences of COVID-19 in the social sphere. It is concluded that the effectiveness of the Brazilian response to the coronacrisis is low due to the structural imbalances accumulated before the outbreak of the pandemic. The article consists of three parts. The first analyses the main features of the country’s social policy before the outbreak of COVID-19. It reveals that Brazil’s social policy has already been struggling before the pandemic due to the effects of the 2015-2016 crisis. The second part of the article focuses on the anti-crisis measures adopted by the Brazilian Government during the pandemic and problems with implementing the anti-coronavirus plan in the social sphere. Examples of successful and failed experiences in the fight against the pandemic in Brazilian states are provided. The third part is devoted to the positions of the criminal groups on the issue of combating the pandemic, especially in the favelas that are the most vulnerable parts of the country. The specificity of Brazilian experience in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic relates to the growing influence of such non-state actors. The authors come to a conclusion that Brazilian response to the pandemic cannot be considered successful, despite numerous governmental initiatives to mitigate the crisis. The problems and shortcomings of the previous development do not allow Brazil to make an instant breakthrough in the field of social policy with emergency measures. The success of the proposed measures depends on the Brazilian Government's ability to address the structural problems in the social sphere.

Pandemic, Protests, Protectionism and Presidential Elections in the USA in 2020

The article analyzes major trends in domestic, social, economic, trade and foreign policy of the USA in 2020. The last year of Donald Trump’s presidency became the most traumatic and unpredictable for the country. The COVID-19 pandemic dominated every process in the political, social and economic life of the American society and government. At the same time, it accentuated the main trends of the Trump foreign policy. Trump became the first president to be impeached twice, the 13th president who after being nominated by his party was not reelected by the society, the first president trying to fight both unknown epidemic and economic crisis during his reelection year, the first president who chose not to come to the inauguration of his successor, the first who made decisive steps to break with American-China interdependence and the first who openly declared that he put American interests above those of the other countries, even the allies. His presidency changed the USA deeply and the last year was the turning point in this transformation. He was the most polarized president and he left behind a deeply divided country. Trump spent his last year in the White House battling with the pandemic and fighting for power, and it highlighted how limited the capabilities of the American presidency are in the polarized system where political compromise between the parties is no longer possible. At the same time this last year pointed out a critical importance of a leader’s personality for politics in all spheres. In the time of deep polarization, foreign policy became the only sphere of possible compromise for the parties. Both Democrats and Republicans supported the economic instruments sponsored by Trump of ensuring American leadership in time of pandemic, despite his arrogant style so much criticized by the opposition. After four years of Trump’s presidency the policy of sanctions is considered an effective and long-lasting instrument to control the competitors and enhance the American influence. At the same time while the trend of confrontation became dominant during the Trump’s presidency and his policy of economic nationalism could have more distant and strategic consequences, the confrontation with key actors such as China demonstrated the limits of American power to influence and to control unilaterally both the global economic and political processes and the behavior of different actors. This article is a result of a collective multi-aspect research of transformations taking place in the US on a real time basis. The analysis is built methodologically on the systemic approach to studying American political, social and economic trends, both domestically and on international level.

Indian Stance on the Territorial Dispute over Sir Creek in the Context of India-Pakistan Relations

The author analyses in depth the long-lasting territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over Sir Creek situated in the Indus Delta and the neighboring area. This area is of great importance for the economy and security of the two nations. The article encompasses an overview of the historic background of the dispute and highlights both Indian and Pakistani positions during the negotiation process. The author looks at the legal aspects of the territorial dispute, including an overview of international rules relevant to regulating the dispute. The paper highlights the economic significance of the area from different perspectives including the importance of fishing for local populations as well as energy security, crucial for such emerging economies as India and Pakistan. The significance of the area in terms of defense and security, especially in the context of combating terrorism is also considered. The author argues that the territorial dispute is not likely to be resolved in the short or medium term. Both India and Pakistan will continue to refer to the international rules that are consistent with their stances in the dispute, and the situation in the region is likely to become more and more explosive. The author uses historical methods to compare the positions of India and Pakistan over time and to scrutinize the role of the territorial dispute in the Indo-Pakistani relation, analyses and interprets official statements concerning the territorial dispute and applies statistical methods to assess the economic potential of the disputed area.

On the Potential of the Franco-German Tandem to Respond to the Common Security Challenges

The article focuses on the French and German joint efforts towards strengthening the EU’s ability to address the security challenges and act in the European frontier regions. The authors look closely at the two instruments aimed at developing the EU defense capacity: civil missions and military operations, and the European Intervention Initiative (EI2). In the first part of the article, they argue that after 1992 there was a strong possibility for the UK becoming France’s major partner in the military field, rather than Germany. Nevertheless, eventually, Germany shifted to the position of the key French ally in this area, helping to build the basis for the EU autonomous military potential. The EU has undertaken a number of civil missions and military operations; however, their scale and main parameters are far from the characteristics of such interventions of the UN, NATO, or national military operations. The authors indicate that it is difficult to talk about any “special role” of the Franco-German tandem in this field. Both states can be described as “major donors” for the EU missions and operations rather than champions in the EU security. In several cases there is a lack of synchronization of the countries’ objectives thus their military cooperation sometimes causes serious misunderstandings blocking the fragile coordination on the EU level. In the second part of their research the authors analyze the role of the Franco-German tandem in the European Intervention Initiative (EI2) establishment. The article examines three reasons behind the France’s decision to launch the EI2 initiative in 2018 despite some German objections. The EI2 emerged as a flexible frame for nine countries seeking to carry out offensive operations and interventions outside of the EU and to develop a joint strategic culture. The unique character of the EI2 is evident due to its possibility to engage member countries of the EU, CSFP/PESCO and NATO. The new organization aims to coordinate the work of strategic groups on the broad range of issues. The authors conclude that despite some differences, the Franco-German tandem stimulates a range of projects aspiring to expand its European leadership and to enforce the EU strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, the military leadership of the tandem in the future is not guaranteed, and as the PESCO example shows, there are reasons to start talking about the “quadriga” of players (France, Germany, Italy and Spain), possibly in cooperation with the UK.

“Conflict-Free Arctic”: Pro et Contra

Analyzing the increasing tension in the world and the Trans-Arctic (the transnational political space of the Arctic), the author emphasizes the presence of a “dormant conflict gene” in the region and the need for Russia to take it into account when implementing its chairmanship in the Arctic Council (2021-2023). Not accepting the opinions that existed over the past decade about the Arctic as a “conflict-free region”’, the author identifies a range of threats fraught with the awakening of the “conflict gene”. Since the Trans-Arctic is a subsystem of global interstate relations with their crises and conflicts, the author considers the laws of its development and functioning through the foreign policy activities of states, which crucially determine whether the possibility of conflict will be realized or not. The increased military and strategic attention to the region by the USA and NATO, the revision of the regional strategies by other Arctic countries, as well as the expanding presence of non-regional countries in the Arctic, together reflect the growing conflict potential of the Trans-Arctic. The author explains why saying that the region in the XXI century remains free from military confrontation means wishful thinking. Criticizing the view of the Arctic through “rose-colored glasses” that soften the landscape of the hybrid war platz in the Arctic, the author recalls her interviews with the commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the Warsaw Pact Member States, Marshal of the Soviet Union Viktor G. Kulikov. Analyzing the “dormant conflict gene” in the Arctic, it is important to remember that the Trans-Arctic is a virtual bond of two other transnational political spaces, known as Trans-Atlantic, Trans-Pacific. Special attention is paid to the “dormant conflict gene” in the Trans-Arctic in the context of Washington-led NATO, which in 2009 declared the Arctic a strategically important region, requiring a rethinking of NATO's military doctrine, taking into account the geopolitical realities of the XXI century. The paper uses the case-study methodology, a systematic approach, discourse analysis, the author's 15-year journalistic baggage of VIP interviews and her own observations on the “fields” of international forums.

European Union Higher Education and Science Programs During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The author looks at the impact of the COVID-19 crises on the European higher education and scientific cooperation programs. During the pandemic the national governments announced strict lockdowns and other protective measures. Free movement across borders was hampered, university campuses mostly closed and many activities put on hold. In these circumstances participants of international exchange programs became particularly vulnerable: some were unable to move to their destination university or institution, others were experiencing difficulties returning to their home countries. Numerous logistical, administrative, health-related and other problems made the situation difficult for the students, professors and researchers, as well and for the staff responsible for the implementation of such programs. In response to this situation, the European Commission and its executive agencies issued guidelines for the participants, extended project deadlines and made other arrangements. At the same time, additional resources were channeled to digital education initiatives and to supporting research aimed at overcoming the pandemic, including diagnostics, treatment and prevention of COVID-19 and other related research fields. In the new program cycle the budget for the EU education and scientific cooperation programs, such as Horizon and Erasmus have been significantly increased and linked to the post-crisis recovery package. A new impulse has been given to the European education area and European research area. The author argues that despite serious problems caused by the pandemic itself and the lockdowns, the crisis became an additional factor for extending higher education and research programs and deepening integration efforts in these areas.

Budget Funding Priorities and Development Prospects of the US Artificial Intelligence

The US Government has initiated a large-scale activity on artificial intelligence (AI) development and implementation. Numerous departments and agencies including the Pentagon, intelligence community and citizen agencies take part in these efforts. Some of them are responsible for technology, materials and standards development. Others are customers of AI. State AI efforts receive significant budget funding. Moreover, Department of Defense costs on AI are comparable with the whole non-defense funding. American world-leading IT companies support state departments and agencies in organizing AI technologies development and implementation. The USA's highest military and political leadership supports such efforts. Congress provides significant requested funding. However leading specialists criticize the state's approach to creating and implementing AI. Firstly, they consider authorized assignments as not sufficient. Secondly, even this funding is used ineffectively. Therefore Congress created National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2018 for identifying problems in the AI area and developing solutions. This article looks at the stakeholders and participants of the state AI efforts, the budget funding authorization, the major existing problems and the NSCAI conclusions regarding the necessary AI funding in FYs 2021-2032.

COVID-19 Crisis as a Catalyst for the USA-China Decoupling

The Sino-American rivalry has increased during the pandemic. The ongoing decoupling is rather sectoral than comprehensive and is reflected in trade and sanctions war, competition, restrictions in such spheres as technologies, investment, science, and education. The contradictions are caused not by the pandemic context, but stem from the fundamental structural problems in Sino-American cooperation associated with a change of the economic development model in China and the absence of compensatory mechanisms in the United States, as well as the transition of countries to the phase of strategic competition. From a formal point of view, it looks like the confrontation was mainly initiated by the United States, but it was China that first revealed the intention to greater independence. It is associated with the Chinese economy's qualitative changes – restructuring of the growth model from export towards domestic demand and Chinese leadership claims in a number of high-tech industries. All this made cooperation with China disadvantageous and not safe (in the sense of economic security) for the United States. The 2020 pandemic accelerates natural processes, and the arrival of the new Biden administration will not change their overall direction: the trend towards breaking ties in a number of areas will continue, despite the presence of interested parties, especially in the business sector. But the high economic interdependence still determines the gradual and long-term nature of the decoupling process. Decoupling also has some important consequences for other countries, which, in the context of a strategic confrontation between the two powers, may be faced with the need to choose one of the partners. In the future, some countries may also benefit due to the restructuring of the Chinese-American value chains.

Financial Aspects of the European Green Deal

The climate policy of the European Union became the key priority for the European Commission, headed by Ursula von der Leyen. This article analyses both its internal and external dimensions, while concentrating on the finances of the European Green Deal, the multiyear strategy for the EU socio-economic development. The methods are demonstrated which the EC employs to mobilize public and private capital for the realization of the green transit, including the financial instruments designed to assist businesses when investing in clean energy and industry. The notion of ‘sustainable’ investment is specified that Brussels is guided by when working out its financial decisions. The EU taxonomy, a green classification system that translates the EU's climate and environmental objectives into criteria for specific economic activities for investment purposes, is presented. The research reveals how the market and regulatory powers of the EU are brought to bear in rolling out its controversial Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. By means of this transnational taxation Brussels hopes to avoid carbon leakage: the situation that allegedly may occur if European carbon-intensive businesses were to transfer production to other jurisdictions with laxer emission constraints. Yet a lack of flexibility in applying the CBAM is causing concern in many countries of the world, including the USA, Brazil, South Africa and China. In EU-Russia relations in particular, it risks increasing political tensions and/or causing trade retaliation due to low levels of mutual trust. Russia developing energy transition plans of her own, her efforts in this respect are now visibly stimulated by the declared EU intention to externalize its regulatory practices. At the same time, Moscow perceives this externalization as an imposition which is most unwelcome and hurts Russia disproportionally. Presumably, the European Union could put more effort in negotiating and developing this latest European initiative with international partners to win new willing ears for it.