Simulation of potential epidemics of downy mildew of grapevine in different scenarios of disease conduciveness

Abstract The parameterisation process of a previously developed modelling structure of the grapevine-downy mildew pathosystem is described. The model incorporates primary and secondary infections, host crop growth and development, along with a linkage between disease on foliage and disease on clusters. This process-based model was developed with a main objective of understanding the behaviour of the pathosystem under different, variable, environmental conditions, or under climate change. Six scenarios of disease conduciveness were developed in order to capture the range of environmental conditions under which potential downy mildew of grapevine epidemics can develop. These climate scenarios were based on moisture and temperature factors. The scenarios were translated into vectors of parameters for primary and secondary infections in the model. Model testing was performed in three steps: (i) an analysis of potential epidemics was conducted from the literature on grapevine downy mildew in order to delineate the behaviour of the pathosystem under different scenarios; (ii) a simulation experiment was conducted to investigate the response of the model to different patterns of environmental conditions, corresponding to six scenarios of disease conduciveness; and (iii) expected and simulated epidemics under these scenarios were compared. In scenarios, the model mobilised existing quantitative information on downy mildew of grapevine and generated outputs that are congruent with expected patterns of potential epidemic. This study indicates that the model is a reliable tool for simulating accurate and robust potential epidemics of downy mildew of grapevine in a scenario analysis. This can have many applications, such as the understanding of the behaviour of the pathosystem under climate change or when partial host resistance is involved.

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Climate change and the occurrence of downy mildew in Brazilian grapevines

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira ◽

10.1590/s0100-204x2017000600006 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 52 (6) ◽

pp. 426-434 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Francislene Angelotti ◽

Emília Hamada ◽

Edineide Elisa Magalhães ◽

Raquel Ghini ◽

Lucas da Ressureição Garrido ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Latent Period ◽

Downy Mildew ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Gas Emission ◽

Grapevine Downy Mildew ◽

Diseased Leaf Area ◽

The Mean ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Logic Functions

Abstract: The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the occurrence of grapevine downy mildew in Brazil. Seedlings containing four to six leaves were sprayed with a sporangia suspension containing 105 sporangia per milliliter. After spraying, the seedlings were subjected to temperatures of 26, 28, 29.1, 30.4, and 31.8°C for 24 hours. The percentage of diseased leaf area and the latent period were evaluated. Maps of the geographic and temporal distribution of the disease were made considering the monthly average of the mean air temperature and leaf wetness duration for the reference climate or climate normal (1961-1990) and the future climates (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100), considering the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios, designed by the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Favorability ranges were set and used in logic functions of the geografical information system (GIS) to generate monthly maps for grapevine downy mildew. Rising temperatures interfered with the grapevine downy mildew infections, reduced the disease severity, and increased the latent period. Future climate scenarios indicate a reduction of favorability of downy mildew in Brazil, with variability in the different grape producing regions.

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A Weather-Driven Model for Predicting Infections of Grapevines by Sporangia of Plasmopara viticola

Frontiers in Plant Science ◽

10.3389/fpls.2021.636607 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Chiara Brischetto ◽

Federica Bove ◽

Giorgia Fedele ◽

Vittorio Rossi

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Downy Mildew ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Posterior Probability ◽

Prior Probability ◽

Mechanistic Model ◽

Plasmopara Viticola ◽

Low Risk ◽

Secondary Infections

A mechanistic model was developed to predict secondary infections of Plasmopara viticola and their severity as influenced by environmental conditions; the model incorporates the processes of sporangia production and survival on downy mildew (DM) lesions, dispersal and deposition, and infection. The model was evaluated against observed data (collected in a 3-year vineyard) for its accuracy to predict periods with no sporangia (i.e., for negative prognosis) or with peaks of sporangia, so that growers can identify periods with no/low risk or high risk. The model increased the probability to correctly predict no sporangia [P(P−O−) = 0.67] by two times compared to the prior probability, with fewer than 3% of the total sporangia found in the vineyard being sampled when not predicted by the model. The model also correctly predicted peaks of sporangia, with only 1 of 40 peaks unpredicted. When evaluated for the negative prognosis of infection periods, the model showed a posterior probability for infection not to occur when not predicted P(P−O−) = 0.87 with only 9 of 108 real infections not predicted; these unpredicted infections were mild, accounting for only 4.4% of the total DM lesions observed in the vineyard. In conclusion, the model was able to identify periods in which the DM risk was nil or very low. It may, therefore, help growers avoid fungicide sprays when not needed and lengthen the interval between two sprays, i.e., it will help growers move from calendar-based to risk-based fungicide schedules for the control of P. viticola in vineyards.

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Dissolved oxygen and temperature best predict deep-sea fish community structure in the Gulf of California with climate change implications

Marine Ecology Progress Series ◽

10.3354/meps13240 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 637 ◽

pp. 159-180

Author(s):

ND Gallo ◽

M Beckwith ◽

CL Wei ◽

LA Levin ◽

L Kuhnz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Community Structure ◽

Community Composition ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Deep Sea ◽

Gulf Of California ◽

Fish Community ◽

Demersal Fish ◽

Fish Community Structure ◽

Explained Variance

Natural gradient systems can be used to examine the vulnerability of deep-sea communities to climate change. The Gulf of California presents an ideal system for examining relationships between faunal patterns and environmental conditions of deep-sea communities because deep-sea conditions change from warm and oxygen-rich in the north to cold and severely hypoxic in the south. The Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) remotely operated vehicle (ROV) ‘Doc Ricketts’ was used to conduct seafloor video transects at depths of ~200-1400 m in the northern, central, and southern Gulf. The community composition, density, and diversity of demersal fish assemblages were compared to environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that climate-relevant variables (temperature, oxygen, and primary production) have more explanatory power than static variables (latitude, depth, and benthic substrate) in explaining variation in fish community structure. Temperature best explained variance in density, while oxygen best explained variance in diversity and community composition. Both density and diversity declined with decreasing oxygen, but diversity declined at a higher oxygen threshold (~7 µmol kg-1). Remarkably, high-density fish communities were observed living under suboxic conditions (<5 µmol kg-1). Using an Earth systems global climate model forced under an RCP8.5 scenario, we found that by 2081-2100, the entire Gulf of California seafloor is expected to experience a mean temperature increase of 1.08 ± 1.07°C and modest deoxygenation. The projected changes in temperature and oxygen are expected to be accompanied by reduced diversity and related changes in deep-sea demersal fish communities.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12050544 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 544

Author(s):

Hang Ning ◽

Ming Tang ◽

Hui Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Central China ◽

Qinling Mountains ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Suitable Area ◽

The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

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Regulation of Seed Dormancy and Germination Mechanisms in a Changing Environment

International Journal of Molecular Sciences ◽

10.3390/ijms22031357 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 1357

Author(s):

Ewelina A. Klupczyńska ◽

Tomasz A. Pawłowski

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Seed Germination ◽

Seed Dormancy ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Global Climate ◽

Plant Evolution ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Adaptation Mechanism ◽

Seed Dormancy And Germination

Environmental conditions are the basis of plant reproduction and are the critical factors controlling seed dormancy and germination. Global climate change is currently affecting environmental conditions and changing the reproduction of plants from seeds. Disturbances in germination will cause disturbances in the diversity of plant communities. Models developed for climate change scenarios show that some species will face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. Dormancy is an adaptive mechanism that affects the probability of survival of a species. The ability of seeds of many plant species to survive until dormancy recedes and meet the requirements for germination is an adaptive strategy that can act as a buffer against the negative effects of environmental heterogeneity. The influence of temperature and humidity on seed dormancy status underlines the need to understand how changing environmental conditions will affect seed germination patterns. Knowledge of these processes is important for understanding plant evolution and adaptation to changes in the habitat. The network of genes controlling seed dormancy under the influence of environmental conditions is not fully characterized. Integrating research techniques from different disciplines of biology could aid understanding of the mechanisms of the processes controlling seed germination. Transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenetics, and other fields provide researchers with new opportunities to understand the many processes of plant life. This paper focuses on presenting the adaptation mechanism of seed dormancy and germination to the various environments, with emphasis on their prospective roles in adaptation to the changing climate.

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Assessing the Uncertainty of Hydropower-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management under Climate Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w13152114 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (15) ◽

pp. 2114

Author(s):

Yuni Xu ◽

Yu Hui

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conflict Resolution ◽

Reservoir Operation ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Optimal Operation ◽

Environmental Conflict ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Water Demands ◽

Environmental Conflict Resolution ◽

Decision Behaviors

To balance the water demands of different departments and produce a win–win result for reservoir operation, a series of conflict-resolution methods have been developed to define the socio-optimal operation strategy for specific conflict problems. However, given the inherent uncertainty of reservoir operation brought by climate change, the compromised strategies selected by conflict-resolution methods can vary. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of climate change on the decision characteristics of conflict-resolution methods can help to address questions about whether conflict-resolution decisions are sustainable given unforeseen changes. In this study, the Yangtze River is regarded as study area. As a world-class hydropower project located on the midstream of Yangtze River, Three Gorges Hydroelectric Power Station can transfer plenty of water energy into electricity. To alleviate the ecological water shortage caused by hydropower operation, sustainable and balanced operation strategies considering the water demands of two departments needs to be studied. In the context of hydropower-environmental conflict-resolution management, the decision behaviors of two fuzzy social choice methods and four game-theoretical bargaining methods under 25 kinds of future climate scenarios are analyzed. Comparing the strategy selection results of different methods for a future period (2021–2082) shows that in all proposed climate scenarios, the decisions of the Nash bargaining method, alternating offer method, and unanimity fallback bargaining method in game-theoretical bargaining methods are more stable than other studied methods, which means that climate change affects the decision behaviors of these three methods slightly. In addition, balanced strategies selected by these three methods could formulate adaptable reservoir operation policies that would satisfy the interests of hydropower and environmental stakeholders equally, and avoid a very low satisfaction level of individual stakeholder and whole stakeholders in the water-conflict year. Therefore, against the background of an increasing demand for environmental protection, these three methods can provide socio-optimal strategies considering social and economic benefits for water resource management.

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A High-Quality Grapevine Downy Mildew Genome Assembly Reveals Rapidly Evolving and Lineage-Specific Putative Host Adaptation Genes

Genome Biology and Evolution ◽

10.1093/gbe/evz048 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 954-969 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Yann Dussert ◽

Isabelle D Mazet ◽

Carole Couture ◽

Jérôme Gouzy ◽

Marie-Christine Piron ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Downy Mildew ◽

Genome Assembly ◽

Population Genomics ◽

Plasmopara Viticola ◽

Plant Diseases ◽

Host Specialization ◽

Grapevine Downy Mildew ◽

Downy Mildews ◽

Genes Encoding ◽

High Level

Abstract Downy mildews are obligate biotrophic oomycete pathogens that cause devastating plant diseases on economically important crops. Plasmopara viticola is the causal agent of grapevine downy mildew, a major disease in vineyards worldwide. We sequenced the genome of Pl. viticola with PacBio long reads and obtained a new 92.94 Mb assembly with high contiguity (359 scaffolds for a N50 of 706.5 kb) due to a better resolution of repeat regions. This assembly presented a high level of gene completeness, recovering 1,592 genes encoding secreted proteins involved in plant–pathogen interactions. Plasmopara viticola had a two-speed genome architecture, with secreted protein-encoding genes preferentially located in gene-sparse, repeat-rich regions and evolving rapidly, as indicated by pairwise dN/dS values. We also used short reads to assemble the genome of Plasmopara muralis, a closely related species infecting grape ivy (Parthenocissus tricuspidata). The lineage-specific proteins identified by comparative genomics analysis included a large proportion of RxLR cytoplasmic effectors and, more generally, genes with high dN/dS values. We identified 270 candidate genes under positive selection, including several genes encoding transporters and components of the RNA machinery potentially involved in host specialization. Finally, the Pl. viticola genome assembly generated here will allow the development of robust population genomics approaches for investigating the mechanisms involved in adaptation to biotic and abiotic selective pressures in this species.

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The Impact of Different Environmental Conditions during Vegetative Propagation on Growth, Survival, and Biochemical Characteristics in Populus Hybrids in Clonal Field Trial

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12070892 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 892

Author(s):

Valda Gudynaitė-Franckevičienė ◽

Alfas Pliūra

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Phenotypic Plasticity ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Vegetative Propagation ◽

Genotypic Variation ◽

Hybrid Poplar ◽

Field Trials ◽

Biochemical Traits ◽

Suburban Areas ◽

Growing Conditions

To have a cleaner environment, good well-being, and improve the health of citizens it is necessary to expand green urban and suburban areas using productive and adapted material of tree species. The quality of urban greenery, resistance to negative climate change factors and pollution, as well as efficiency of short-rotation forestry in suburban areas, depends primarily on the selection of hybrids and clones, suitable for the local environmental conditions. We postulate that ecogenetic response, phenotypic plasticity, and genotypic variation of hybrid poplars (Populus L.) grown in plantations are affected not only by the peculiarities of hybrids and clones, but also by environmental conditions of their vegetative propagation. The aim of the present study was to estimate growth and biochemical responses, the phenotypic plasticity, genotypic variation of adaptive traits, and genetically regulated adaptability of Populus hybrids in field trials which may be predisposed by the simulated contrasting temperature conditions at their vegetative propagation phase. The research was performed with the 20 cultivars and experimental clones of one intraspecific cross and four different interspecific hybrids of poplars propagated under six contrasting temperature regimes in phytotron. The results suggest that certain environmental conditions during vegetative propagation not only have a short-term effect on tree viability and growth, but also can help to adapt to climate change conditions and grow successfully in the long-term. It was found that tree growth and biochemical traits (the chlorophyll A and B, pigments content and the chlorophyll A/B ratio) of hybrid poplar clones grown in field trials, as well as their traits’ genetic parameters, were affected by the rooting-growing conditions during vegetative propagation phase. Hybrids P. balsamifera × P. trichocarpa, and P. trichocarpa × P. trichocarpa have shown the most substantial changes of biochemical traits across vegetative propagation treatments in field trial. Rooting-growing conditions during vegetative propagation had also an impact on coefficients of genotypic variation and heritability in hybrid poplar clones when grown in field trials.

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Current Threats to the Environmental Conditions in Cities of the Eastern Mediterranean

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10195 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Manfred A. Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Middle Eastern ◽

Liquid Waste ◽

Dust Storms ◽

Urban Structures ◽

Space Cooling

The environmental conditions in urban settings are subject to processes and conditions within cities, on the one hand, and have a strong bearing on the overall conditions and the quality of life of the cities&#8217; inhabitants, on the other. The built environment, in general, and buildings and infrastructure, in particular, play a major role in shaping the urban environment. At the same time, environmental conditions affect strongly the conditions within and outside of buildings.The continued growth of cities in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern (EMME) region, the demise of environmental quality adds to the challenges faced by their inhabitants. Of the many factors contributing to these threats, climate change and its amplification in urban structures, the increasing load of pollutants in air and water and the rising numbers of dust storms as well as the growing amount of solid and liquid waste stand out.The significant increase in the number of cars and the rising quantity of energy production has contributed to ever-worsening air quality in EMME cities. More specifically, urban road transport represents one of the major sources of air-borne pollutants in many of these cities and causes substantial threats to the health of their inhabitants.The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the EMME region are major sources of desert dust storms that travel north and east to Europe and Asia, thereby strongly affecting cities and their air quality in the EMME. Dust storms and suspended bacteria and viruses pose serious consequences to communities in the EMME region and are likely to worsen due to ongoing climate change.Present and future changes in climate conditions will have numerous adverse effects on the EMME region, in general, and on EMME cities, in particular. This includes extended heat waves as well as enhanced water scarcity for inhabitants and green spaces. In combination with poor air quality, this will cause severe health risks for urban populations as well as the need for increased and extended periods of space cooling in private, commercial and municipal buildings. The greater needs for water and energy in urban structures are interrelated and have been described by the Water-Energy Nexus. The higher demand for water is increasingly satisfied through desalination, which is particularly energy-intensive. The need for additional space cooling during hot spells in cities will require more electricity.The high rate of population growth, ever-increasing urbanization, changes in lifestyles and economic expansion in the EMME countries result in steadily increasing volumes of solid and liquid waste. The waste problems are exacerbated by the rising number of displaced persons and refugees in growing camps in some of the EMME countries, particularly, in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. The huge quantity of daily produced sewage sludge in Middle Eastern countries presents a serious challenge due to its high treatment costs and risks to the environment and human health.This paper will address some of these challenges, which call for holistic and interdisciplinary efforts to design effective and sustainable adaptation strategies in EMME cities.

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