Assessment of probable groundwater changes under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios through the wavelet–GEP model

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Ghazi ◽  
Esmaeil Jeihouni ◽  
Kamran Kouzehgar ◽  
Ali Torabi Haghighi
Keyword(s):  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Rcp Scenarios

scholarly journals Health Burden and Economic Impacts Attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in China from 2010 to 2050 under Different Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Wang ◽  
jianlin Hu ◽  
Jia Zhu ◽  
Jingyi Li ◽  
Momei Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background: Quantifying future health burden attributed to fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in China is challenging when jointly accounting for emissions, climate and population changes. Future health burdens caused by PM2.5 and O3 in China remain largely understudied. Methods: In this paper, we used the Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to project PM2.5 and O3 concentrations from 2010 to 2050 under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), then projected the PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in this period. We then estimated the resulting economic burdens such as medical expenses (ME) and value of statistical life (VSL) in 2010-2050 attributed to the burdens of disease on PM2.5 and O3.Results: Compared to the targeted year 2050, we found that PM2.5 concentrations changed between -31.5% to 14.5% since 2010, resulted in -13.5% to 9.4% change in PM2.5-related mortality and -25.7% to 0.6% change in YLL across all the RCPs scenarios. For O3, the concentrations varied -13.3% to 3.7% by 2050, contributing to -26.9% to 13.1% change in O3-related mortality and -48.8% to 4.0% change in YLL. The lowest health impacts occurred in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 for both pollutants. In 2010, the ME caused by PM2.5 and O3 was $6.3-6.5 billion, and the VSL was $112.1-114.9 billion, accounting for 2.9-3.0% of the total GDP ($3874 billion). By 2050, ME and VSL will change from -19.7% to 17.5% and from -65.5% to 136.6%, respectively.Conclusion: This study suggested that future PM2.5 and O3 under certain RCP scenarios can have large health and economic benefits. However, given that the future population will always be higher than the baseline in 2010, more aggressive air pollution mitigation measures are needed for China.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2600
Author(s):  
Jiyun Jung ◽  
Jae Young Lee ◽  
Hyewon Lee ◽  
Ho Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Health Burdens ◽  
The Impact

As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM10) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM10. We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003–2012), 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2080s (2076–2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM10 concentrations above 65 μg/m3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers.

scholarly journals Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Ward J. J. van Pelt ◽  
Thomas V. Schuler ◽  
Veijo A. Pohjola ◽  
Rickard Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Total Pore Volume ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Accumulation Area Ratio

Abstract Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoge XIN ◽  
Li ZHANG ◽  
Jie ZHANG ◽  
Tongwen WU ◽  
Yongjie FANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios

scholarly journals An ensemble approach to simulate CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from natural fires

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1443-1478
Author(s):  
A. V. Eliseev ◽  
I. I. Mokhov ◽  
A. V. Chernokulsky
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Natural Fires ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations were forced by historical reconstruction of external forcings for 850–2005 AD and by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios till year 2300. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying the governing parameters of the IAP RAS CM module to simulate natural fires. These members are constrained by the GFED–3.1 observational data set and further subjected to Bayesian averaging. This approach allows to select only changes in fire characteristics which are robust within the constrained ensemble. In our simulations, the present-day (1998–2011 AD) global area burnt due to natural fires is (2.1 ± 0.4) × 106 km2 yr−1 (ensemble means and intra-ensemble standard deviations are presented), and the respective CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are (1.4 ± 0.2) PgC yr−1. The latter value is in agreement with the corresponding observational estimates. Regionally, the model underestimates CO2 emissions in the tropics; in the extra-tropics, it underestimates these emissions in north-east Eurasia and overestimates them in Europe. In the 21st century, the ensemble mean global burnt area is increased by 13% (28%, 36%, 51%) under scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). The corresponding global emissions increase is 14% (29%, 37%, 42%). In the 22nd–23rd centuries, under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 the ensemble mean global burnt area and respective CO2 emissions slightly decrease, both by 5% relative to their values in year 2100. Under other RCP scenarios, these variables continue to increase. Under scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5) the ensemble mean burnt area in year 2300 is higher by 83% (44%, 15%) than its value in year 2100, and the ensemble mean CO2 emissions are correspondingly higher by 31% (19%, 9%). All changes of natural fire characteristics in the 21st–23rd centuries are associated mostly with the corresponding changes in boreal regions of Eurasia and North America. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, increase of the burnt area and CO2 emissions in boreal regions during the 22nd–23rd centuries are accompanied by the respective decreases in the tropics and subtropics.

scholarly journals Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Moo-Llanes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Complex Disease ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Neotropical Region ◽  
World Health ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

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