scholarly journals Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Severity in Abu Dhabi

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 344-353
Author(s):  
Latifa Mohammad Baynouna AlKetbi ◽  
Nico Nagelkerke ◽  
Hanan Abdelbaqi ◽  
Fatima ALBlooshi ◽  
Mariam AlSaedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Oxygen Saturation ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Complex Care ◽  
Low Oxygen

Abstract Background Prediction models are essential for informing screening, assessing prognosis, and examining options for treatment. This study aimed to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection severity in the Abu Dhabi population. Methods This is a mixed retrospective cohort study and case–control study to explore the associated factors of receiving treatment in the community, being hospitalized, or requiring complex hospital care among patients with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. Of 641 patients included, 266 were hospitalized; 135 were hospitalized and either died or required complex care, i.e., required ICU admission, intubation, or oxygen and 131 did not develop severe disease requiring complex care. The third group (“controls”) were 375 patients who were not hospitalized. Logistic regression analyses were used to study predictors of disease severity. Results Among hospitalized patients older age and low oxygen saturation at admission were the consistent and strongest predictors of an adverse outcome. Risk factors for the death in addition to age and low oxygen saturation were elevated white blood count and low reported physical activity. Chronic kidney disease and diabetes were also associated with more severe disease in logistic regression. The mortality rate among those with less than 30 min per week of physical activity was 4.9%, while the mortality rate was 0.35% for those with physical activity > 30 min at least once a week. The interval from the onset of symptoms to admission and mortality was found to have a significant inverse relationship, with worse survival for shorter intervals. Conclusion Oxygen saturation is an important measure that should be introduced at screening sites and used in the risk assessment of patients with SARS-CoV-2. In addition, an older age was a consistent factor in all adverse outcomes, and other factors, such as low physical activity, elevated WBC, CKD, and DM, were also identified as risk factors.

scholarly journals Factors associated with 90-day acute ischemic stroke in patients ≥70 years old with total hip arthroplasty for hip fracture

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui He ◽  
Guoyou Wang ◽  
Ting Li ◽  
Huarui Shen ◽  
LijuanZhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Total Hip Arthroplasty ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
D Dimer

Abstract Background Postoperative ischemic stroke is a devastating complication following total hip arthroplasty (THA). The purpose of the current study was to investigate the incidence of postoperative acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in patients ≥70 years old with THA for hip fracture after 90 days and independent risk factors associated with 90-day AIS. Methods A multicenter retrospective study was conducted, patients ≥70 years old with THA for hip fracture under general anesthesia were included from February 2017 to March 2020. Patients with AIS within 90 days after THA were identified as AIS group; patients with no AIS were identified as no AIS group. The baseline characteristics and risk factors were collected, multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors of 90-dayAIS. Results: 2517 patients (mean age 76.18 ± 6.01) were eligible for inclusion in the study. 2.50% (63/2517) of patients had 90-day AIS. Compared with no AIS, older age, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation (AF) and higher D-dimer value were more likely in patients with AIS (P < 0.05), and anticoagulant use was fewer in patients with AIS. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cut point of D-dimer for AIS was D-dimer≥4.12 μg/ml. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that D-dimer≥4.12 μg/ml [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 4.44; confidence interval (CI), 2.50–7.72; P < 0.001], older age (aOR, 1.08; 95%CI, 1.03–1.12; P < 0.001), hyperlipidemia (aOR, 2.28; 95%CI, 1.25–4.16; P = 0.007), atrial fibrillation (aOR, 5.84; 95% CI, 1.08–15.68; P = 0.001), and diabetes (aOR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.56–4.39; P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk of 90-day AIS after THA. Conclusions In conclusion, we found that the incidence of 90-day AIS in patients≥70 years old with THA for hip fracture was 2.5%. Older age, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, AF and higher D-dimer value were independent risk factors for 90-day AIS in patients≥70 years old with THA for hip fracture.

scholarly journals Mortality Risk Factors in Tetralogy of Fallot Patients Undergoing Total Correction

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Juliana Juliana ◽  
Yan Efrata Sembiring ◽  
Mahrus Abdur Rahman ◽  
Heroe Soebroto
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Oxygen Saturation ◽  
Tetralogy Of Fallot ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Operative Risk ◽  
Average Height ◽  
Low Oxygen ◽  
Total Correction ◽  
Ventilator Time

A total correction is a preferred treatment for Tetralogy of Fallot patients in every part of the world. However, the mortality in developing countries was as high as 6.9% to 15.3%. This was a retrospective analytic study that analyzed pre and post-operative risk factors that affected mortality on TOF patients that were performed total correction in Indonesia. A total of 47 TOF patients that were performed total correction from January 2016 to September 2019 were enrolled in this study based on the inclusion criteria. Preoperative and post-operative data were obtained from medical records. In this research, the majority of mortality was found in male patients (39.3%), while the female’s rate was lower (36.8%). Overall mortality was 38.3% and one operative death was found. The average age of patients was 84.12 months (12-210 months), whereas the average height (85.56 ± 36.17cm vs. 112.93 ± 21.73) and weight (17.22kg vs. 28.21kg) were lower for mortality patients. Some significant preoperative variables were identified as mortality risk factors such as: age below 60 months (p=0.047), smaller weight and height (p=0.008; p=0.002), abnormal hematocrit (p=0.002), and oxygen saturation below 75% (p=0.018). Significant post-operative risk factors included: temperature above 38.5⁰C (p=0.000), and ventilator time of more than 48 hours (p=0.033). In conclusion, the mortality of TOF patients undergoing a total correction in developing countries was quite high. It was associated with some risk factors, such as younger age, lower weight and height, low oxygen saturation, post-operative fever, and prolonged ventilator time.

scholarly journals Predictive risk factors for worse outcomes in COVID-19 patients with different clinical features at baseline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabetta Schiaroli ◽  
Anna Gidari ◽  
Giovanni Brachelente ◽  
Sabrina Bastianelli ◽  
Alfredo Villa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Critical Illness ◽  
Serum Ferritin ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio

IntroductionCOVID-19 is characterized by a wide range of clinical expression and by possible progression to critical illness and death. Therefore it is essential to identify risk factors predicting progression towards serious and fatal diseases. The aim of our study was to identify laboratory predictive markers of clinical progression in patients with moderate/severe disease and in those with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).Material and methodsUsing electronic medical records for all demographic, clinical and laboratory data, a retrospective study on all consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Infectious Disease Clinic of Perugia was performed. The PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) assessment cut‑off of 200 mm Hg was used at baseline to categorize the patients into two clinical groups. The progression towards invasive ventilation and/or death was used to identify critical outcome. Statistical analysis was performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted to identify risk factors of critical illness and mortality.ResultsIn multivariate logistic regression analysis neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was the only significant predictive factor of progression to a critical outcome (p = 0.03) and of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.03). In ARDS patients no factors were associated with critical progression. Serum ferritin > 1006 ng/ml was the only predictive value of critical outcome in COVID-19 subjects with moderate/severe disease (p = 0.02).ConclusionsNeutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum ferritin are the only biomarkers that can help to stratify the risk of severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Characteristics and Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients with Mature B-Cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphomas (mB-Cell NHL): A US Nationwide Electronic Health Record (EHR) Database Study

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2418-2418
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Yue ◽  
David Hallett ◽  
Yangyang Liu ◽  
Reethi Iyengar ◽  
Elisa Basa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
B Cell ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Index Date ◽  
B Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Male Gender ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction COVID-19 poses a serious concern for mB-cell NHL patients given their advanced age, high burden of comorbidities, and immune dysfunction. Limited by smaller sample sizes during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies were unable to thoroughly evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on patients with mB-cell NHL 1,2. We aim to describe demographics and clinical characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors associated with death and other severe outcomes among COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL in a large US nationwide database. Methods This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Optum EHR database, comprising data from an integrated network of ambulatory and hospital care providers across the US. Patients with COVID-19 (diagnosis code of U07.1, U07.2, or a positive result of SARS-Cov-2 virus PCR or antigen tests) between Feb. 1, 2020 and Jan 7, 2021 (index date) and mB-cell NHL diagnosis prior to the COVID-19 diagnosis were included. Patients were excluded if they were under 18 years of age, had missing age or sex, or had &lt;1year continuous eligibility prior to their index date (pre-index period). All baseline characteristics, including demographics and comorbidities, were determined during the one-year pre-index period. Severe outcomes, including death, hospitalization, ICU admission, and acute respiratory insufficiency (ARI), were evaluated within 30 days post-index date. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify variables independently associated with severe outcomes. Results Among 2,767 patients with mB-cell NHL who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between Feb. 1, 2020 and Jan. 7, 2021 (mean age±SD: 67.9 years±14.7, 53.9% male), majority were white (73.9%), followed by African American (10.9%), Hispanic (6.9%), and Asian (1.2%). The most common subtypes of mB-cell NHL were chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (26.9%), multiple myeloma (22.4%), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (13.2%), and follicular lymphoma (7.3%). Of these patients, 93.4% have at least one comorbidity. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (58.5%), neurological disease (49.4%), diabetes (28.2%), ischemic heart disease (25.5%), cardiac arrhythmia/conduction disorders (24.4%), chronic kidney disease (CKD, 19.2%), heart failure/cardiomyopathy (18.1%), and COPD (12.3%). Overall, 960 patients (34.7%) developed severe outcomes, among which, 847 patients (30.6%) were hospitalized, 214 patients (7.7%) were admitted to the ICU, 201 patients (7.3%) experienced ARI, and 220 patients (8.0%) died. Multivariable logistic regression showed that increased odds of severe outcomes were independently associated with older age (85+ years vs. &lt;65 years; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2.7), male gender (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), insurance coverage with Medicaid (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9) and/or Medicare (vs. commercial only; OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.5), infected during the first quarter (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 3.4-9.4) or second quarter of 2020 (vs. fourth quarter of 2020; OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.4-2.1), having CKD (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6), COPD (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8), diabetes (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), and receiving active treatment for NHL (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0) within 30 days prior to COVID-19 diagnosis (Figure). Conclusions This study demonstrated key demographic and clinical characteristics associated with severe outcomes among COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL using one of the largest nationwide databases. Risk factors for severe outcomes identified in the general population, such as older age, male gender, and having certain underlying medical conditions were also identified in this study. In addition, COVID-19 infection occurring earlier in the pandemic and receiving active NHL treatments were associated with severe outcomes. These latter two observations might reflect the improvement in patient management during the latter period of the pandemic and that active mB-cell NHL disease and treatment rendered an increased risk of severe outcomes in COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL. These insights highlight the importance of utilizing demographic, clinical and treatment information to estimate the risk for severe outcomes, whereas prospective studies focusing on optimal COVID-19 management are required to identify specific actions that can be taken to improve outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with mB-cell NHL. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Yue: Joule: Current Employment. Hallett: AbbVie: Current Employment. Liu: AbbVie: Current Employment. Iyengar: AbbVie: Current Employment. Basa: AbbVie: Current Employment. Yang: AbbVie: Current Employment.

scholarly journals Infective endocarditis at a tertiary care hospital in South Korea

Heart ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 107 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung Ho Kim ◽  
Hi Jae Lee ◽  
Nam Su Ku ◽  
Seung Hyun Lee ◽  
Sak Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression ◽  
Long Term Prognosis

ObjectiveThe treatment of infective endocarditis (IE) has become more complex with the current myriad healthcare-associated factors and the regional differences in causative organisms. We aimed to investigate the overall trends, microbiological features, and outcomes of IE in South Korea.MethodsA 12-year retrospective cohort study was performed. Poisson regression was used to estimate the time trends of IE incidence and mortality rate. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified with multivariable logistic regression, and model comparison was performed to evaluate the predictive performance of notable risk factors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to assess long-term prognosis.ResultsWe included 419 patients with IE, the incidence of which showed an increasing trend (relative risk 1.06, p=0.005), whereas mortality demonstrated a decreasing trend (incidence rate ratio 0.93, p=0.020). The in-hospital mortality rate was 14.6%. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, aortic valve endocarditis (OR 3.18, p=0.001), IE caused by Staphylococcus aureus (OR 2.32, p=0.026), neurological complications (OR 1.98, p=0.031), high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (OR 1.22, p=0.023) and high Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR 1.11, p=0.019) were predictors of in-hospital mortality. Surgical intervention for IE was a protective factor against in-hospital mortality (OR 0.25, p<0.001) and was associated with improved long-term prognosis compared with medical treatment only (p<0.001).ConclusionsThe incidence of IE is increasing in South Korea. Although the mortality rate has slightly decreased, it remains high. Surgery has a protective effect with respect to both in-hospital mortality and long-term prognosis in patients with IE.

scholarly journals 146. Infective Endocarditis in South Korea: a 12-year Single-Center Experience of 419 Patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S100-S101
Author(s):  
Jung Ho Kim ◽  
Hi Jae Lee ◽  
Woon Ji Lee ◽  
Hye Seong ◽  
Jin young Ahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis

Abstract Background Infective endocarditis (IE) is a potentially lethal disease that has undergone constant changes in epidemiology and pathogen. Treatment of IE has become more complex with today’s myriad healthcare-associated factors as well as regional differences in causative organisms. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the overall trends, microbiological features, clinical characteristics and outcomes of IE in South Korea. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with the diagnosis of probable or definite IE according to the modified Duke Criteria admitted to a tertiary care center in South Korea between November 2005 and August 2017. Poisson log-linear regression was used to estimate time trends of IE incidence rate and mortality rate. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis including an interaction term. Results There were 419 IE patients (275 male vs. 144 female) during the study period. The median age of the patients was 56 years. The annual incidence rate of IE of our institution was significantly increased. (RR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08; P = 0.006) The mortality rate showed trends toward down, but not statistically significant (P = 0.875). IE was related to a prosthetic valve in 15.0% and 21.7% patients developed IE during hospitalization. The mitral valve was the most commonly affected valve (61.3%). Causative microorganisms were identified in 309 patients (73.7%) and included streptococci (34.6%), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (15.8%) and enterococci (7.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 14.6%. Logistic regression analysis found aortic valve endocarditis (OR 3.18; P = 0.001), IE caused by staphylococcus aureus (OR 2.32; P = 0.026), a presence of central nervous system embolic complication (OR 1.98; P = 0.031), a high SOFA score (OR 1.22; P = 0.023) and a high Charlson’s comorbidity index (OR 1.11; P = 0.019) as predictors of in-hospital mortality. On the other hand, surgical intervention for IE was found to be a protective factor against mortality. (OR 0.25, P < 0.001) Conclusion Although IE has been increasing, the mortality rate has not yet reduced significantly. Studies on causative organisms of IE and risk factors for mortality are warranted in improving prognosis. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Modelling of Risk Factors of Diabetes in United Arab Emirates (UAE)

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Suheer Haroun
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Blood Glucose ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Fresh Vegetables ◽  
Study Results

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model and determine factors influencing the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the United Arab Emirates and to analyze data related to the topic. Methods: The study was carried out in UAE, using a questionnaire to out-patients in a medical clinic that contained socio-demographic characteristics and risk factors were used for data collection. Sample survey data analyzed using descriptive techniques, correlations, and binary logistic regression models. Binary logistic regression were performed to find the crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to find the significance of the observed OR. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant All Analysis was performed using SPSS and Microsoft excels. Results: study results showed that six main factors influence the risk of diabetes in UAE, which are, blood glucose, blood pressure, physical activity, waist size, gender and family history of diabetes. Marital status, smoking, and intake of fresh vegetables and fruits did not show any statistically significant association with risk of diabetes in UAE. Blood glucose is observed as the most statistically significant factor (for every one unit increase in blood glucose, the study expect a 5.422 increase in the risk of developing diabetes), at the meantime gender observed as the lowest statistically significant factor (if the respondent is male the probability of being diabetic is 0.809 percent) holding all other independent variables constant. Conclusion: Results of the present study will be one of use in planning primordial, primary and secondary measures of prevention at the community. Encouraging physical activity, controlling blood pressure and blood glucose may significantly decrease the risk of diabetes mortality; effective health education programs promoting regular exercise and effective advices may needed to reduce the burden of diabetes in UAE.

scholarly journals Faktor risiko obesitas pada ibu rumah tangga miskin

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Digna Niken Purwaningrum ◽  
Hamam Hadi ◽  
I Made Alit Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Energy Intake ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Case Group ◽  
Fat Intake

Background: Food insecurity is associated with allocation of income for high energy density food consumption that may cause obesity in poor family. In addition, low physical activity may lead to obesity, particularly in individual living in disadvantaged situation.Objective: To identify risk factors of obesity among poor housewives in Yogyakarta.Method: This was a case control study, case group was obese housewives and the control group was non obese housewives. The locations of the study were Bumijo and Pringgokusuman which have high population density. The samples were taken purposively. Each group consisted of 70 housewives (1:1) and were matched according to age. Mc.Nemar test and conditional logistic regression were used to identify the risk factors of obesity.Results: There was no difference in characteristics between the two groups. Food insecurity reached 91,43% in the control group, proportion of excessive energy intake reached 37.86% in the case group, higher than in control group (24.29%). Excessive fat intake in the case group reached 30% whereas in the control group was 28.57%. Low physical activity reached 40% in the case group, and 10% in the control group. The result of Mc.Nemar test showed that food insecurity, energy and fat intake had no significant association with obesity (p>0.05). While physical activity was associated with obesity (p=0.0001). The result of conditional logistic regression showed physical activity was dominant risk factor for obesity among poor housewives (R2=0.1916).Conclusion: Food security status was not a risk factor for obesity in poor families; energy intake and fat intake contributed to the prevalence of obesity though the influence was smaller than physical activity.

scholarly journals Predisposition Factors Analysis for Fournier’s Gangrene Defects Closure Complication

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Bayu Fasi Bermani ◽  
Sitti Rizaliyana ◽  
Ira Handriani
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Fournier’S Gangrene ◽  
Defect Closure ◽  
Fournier's Gangrene ◽  
Fournier Gangrene

Background: Fournier’s gangrene is a rare and rapidly progressive, necrotizing fasciitis affecting the external genitalia and perineum. Based on the case series that have been reported, the incidence rate of this case is 88% with mortality rate of 20%-40%. The study aims to share our policy in managing Fournier’s gangrene and identifying risk factors that can affect the outcome of defect closure.Method: The medical records of 10 patients with Fournier’s gangrene who presented at the Dr. Soetomo Hospital Surabaya from January 2017 to December 2018 were reviewed retrospectively. We analyzed characteristics of the patients, risk factors, methods of defect closure, and case outcome. There are 10 Fournier’s gangrene patients at Dr. Soetomo Academic General Hospital from January 2017 to December 2018. We analyzed the patient’s medical records retrospectively on the patient’s characteristics, risk factors, method of closing Fournier’s gangrene defects, and the final outcome of the case.Results: There were ten men enrolled in the study, and the mean age was 49.3 ± 11.51 years. All patients received broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy, and extensive surgical excision. This study found that diabetes mellitus and uncontrolled patient blood sugar levels, statistically there is no effect on failure of defect closure in Fournier gangrene patients, but clinically, the relative risk value shows that blood glucose levels have a risk factor of 6 times. increasing the incidence of failure to close the Fournier gangrene defect.Conclusions: Fournier’s gangrene is still considered a severe disease with fairly high mortality rate. Early recognition of predisposition factors associated with invasive and aggressive treatment options is very important in efforts to to reduce morbidity.

scholarly journals Risk factors for clinical progression in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective study of electronic health record data in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A Fletcher ◽  
Thomas Matcham ◽  
Marta Tibúrcio ◽  
Arseni Anisimovich ◽  
Stojan Jovanović ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Body Temperature ◽  
Blood Cell ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
C Reactive Protein ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression ◽  
D Dimer

Background: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak presents a significant threat to global health. A better understanding of patient clinical profiles is essential to drive efficient and timely health service strategies. In this study, we aimed to identify risk factors for a higher susceptibility to symptomatic presentation with COVID-19 and a transition to severe disease. Methods: We analysed data on 2756 patients admitted to Chelsea & Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust between 1st January and 23rd April 2020. We compared differences in characteristics between patients designated positive for COVID-19 and patients designated negative on hospitalisation and derived a multivariable logistic regression model to identify risk factors for predicting risk of symptomatic COVID-19. For patients with COVID-19, we used univariable and multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors associated with progression to severe disease defined by: 1) admission to the hospital AICU, 2) the need for mechanical ventilation, 3) in-hospital mortality, and 4) at least one measurement of elevated D-dimer (equal or superior to 1,000 ug/L) indicative of increased risk of venous thromboembolism. Results: The patient population consisted of 1148 COVID-19 positive and 1608 COVID-19 negative patients. Age, sex, self-reported ethnicity, C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, respiratory rate, body temperature, and systolic blood pressure formed the most parsimonious model for predicting risk of symptomatic COVID-19 at hospital admission. Among 1148 patients with COVID-19, 116 (10.1%) were admitted to the AICU, 71 (6.2%) required mechanical ventilation, 368 (32.1%) had at least one record of D-dimer levels ≥1,000 μg/L, and 118 patients died. In the multivariable logistic regression, age (OR = 0.953 per 1 year, 95% CI: 0.937-0.968) C-reactive protein (OR = 1.004 per 1 mg/L, 95% CI: 1.002-1.007), and white blood cell counts (OR = 1.059 per 109/L, 95% CI: 1.010-1.111) were found to be associated with admission to the AICU. Age (OR = 0.973 per 1 year, 95% CI: 0.955-0.990), C-reactive protein (OR = 1.003 per 1 mg/L, 95% CI: 1.000-1.006) and sodium (OR = 0.915 per 1 mmol/L, 0.868-0.962) were associated with mechanical ventilation. Age (OR = 1.023 per 1 year, 95% CI: 1.004-1.043), CRP (OR = 1.004 per 1 mg/L, 95% CI: 1.002-1.006), and body temperature (OR = 0.723 per 1oC, 95% CI: 0.541-0.958) were associated with elevated D-dimer. For mortality, we observed associations with age (OR = 1.060 per 1 year, 95% CI: 1.040-1.082), female sex (OR = 0.442, 95% CI: 0.442, 95% CI: 0.245-0.777), Asian ethnic background (OR = 2.237 vs White ethnic background, 95% CI: 1.111-4.510), C-reactive protein (OR = 1.004 per 1 mg/L, 95% CI: 1.001-1.006), sodium (OR = 1.038 per 1 mmol/L, 95% CI: 1.001-1.006), and respiratory rate (OR = 1.054 per 1 breath/min, 95% CI: 1.024-1.087). Conclusion: Our analysis suggests there are several demographic, clinical and laboratory findings associated with a symptomatic presentation of COVID-19. Moreover, significant associations between patient deterioration were found with age, sex and specific blood markers, chiefly C-reactive protein, and could help early identification of patients at risk of poorer prognosis. Further work is required to clarify the extent to which our observations are relevant beyond current settings.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document