Towards understanding multi-model precipitation predictions from CMIP5 based on China hourly merged precipitation analysis data

2020 ◽  
Vol 231 ◽  
pp. 104671
Author(s):  
Yanmin Lv ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Steve Hung-Lam Yim ◽  
Yuxing Yun ◽  
Jinfang Yin ◽  
...  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 436-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuji Sugihara ◽  
◽  
Sho Imagama ◽  
Nobuhiro Matsunaga ◽  
Yukiko Hisada ◽  
...  

It is difficult to forecast hourly rainfall locally even using the latest meteorological models, although hourly rainfall averaged spatially to some extent can be used for calculating practical rainfall. This study conducts numerical experiments with triple nesting on the 2012 heavy rainfall event in northern Kyushu using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and examines the features of hourly rainfall averaged spatially. The dependence of rainfall is averaged spatially on a spatial averaging scale and clarified by comparing rainfall calculated by simulation using the WRF model with radar/AMeDAS precipitation analysis data. This study’s findings indicate the effective spatial averaging scale making relative error of calculated values to the observed ones minimum.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanbing Wang ◽  
Yaodeng Chen ◽  
Jinzhong Min

In this study, the China Hourly Merged Precipitation Analysis (CHMPA) data which combines the satellite-retrieved Climate Prediction Center Morphing (CMORPH) with the automatic weather station precipitation observations is firstly assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the Four-Dimensional Variational (4DVar) method. The analyses and subsequent forecasts of heavy rainfall during Meiyu season occurred in July 2013 over eastern China is evaluated. Besides, the sensitivity of rainfall forecast skill of assimilating the CHMPA data to the rainfall error, the rainfall thinning distance, and the rainfall accumulation time within assimilation window are investigated in this study. Then, the impact of 4DVar data assimilation with and without CHMPA rainfall data is evaluated to show how the assimilation of CHMPA impacts the precipitation simulations. It is found that assimilation of the CHMPA data helps to produce a better short-range precipitation forecast in this study. The rainfall fields after assimilation of CHMPA is closer to observations in terms of quantity and pattern. However, the leading time of improved forecast is limited to about 18 hours. It is also found that CHMPA data assimilation produces stronger realistic moisture divergence, precipitabale water field and the vertical wind field in the forecasting fields, which eventually contributes to the improved forecast of heavy rainfall. This study can provide references for the assimilation of CHMPA data into the WRF model using 4DVar, which is valuable for limited-area numerical weather prediction and hydrological applications.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 651-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kim ◽  
S. K. Park

Abstract. This study examines the uncertainty in calculating the fundamental climatological characteristics of precipitation in the East Asia region from multiple fine-resolution gridded analysis data sets based on in situ rain gauge observations and data assimilations. Five observation-based gridded precipitation data sets are used to derive the long-term means, standard deviations in lieu of interannual variability and linear trends over the 28-year period from 1980 to 2007. Both the annual and summer (June–July–August) mean precipitation is examined. The agreement amongst these precipitation data sets is examined using two metrics including the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) defined as the ratio between long-term means and the corresponding standard deviations, and Taylor diagrams, which allow examinations of the pattern correlation, the standard deviation, and the centered root mean square error. It is found that the five gauge-based precipitation analysis data sets agree well in the long-term mean and interannual variability in most of the East Asia region including eastern China, Manchuria, South Korea, and Japan, which are densely populated and have fairly high-density observation networks. The regions of large inter-data-set variations include Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, northern Indo-China, and North Korea. The regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or extremely high elevations. Unlike the long-term mean and interannual variability, agreement between data sets in the linear trend is weak, both for the annual and summer mean values. In most of the East Asia region, the SNR for the linear trend is below 0.5: the inter-data-set variability exceeds the multi-data ensemble mean. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of long-term means among these data sets occurs both in the spatial pattern and variability, but the uncertainty for the interannual variability and time trend is much larger in the variability than in the pattern correlation. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over the East Asia region.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 334
Author(s):  
Chao Qiu ◽  
Leiding Ding ◽  
Lan Zhang ◽  
Jintao Xu ◽  
Ziqiang Ma

Precipitation data with fine quality plays vital roles in hydrological-related applications. In this study, we choose the high-quality China Merged Precipitation Analysis data (CMPA) as the benchmark for evaluating four satellite-based precipitation products (PERSIANN-CCS, FY4A QPE, GSMap_Gauge, IMERG-Final) and one model-based precipitation product (ERA5-Land), respectively, at 0.1°, hourly scales over the Zhejiang province, China, in summer, from June to August 2019. The main conclusions were as follows—(1) all other products demonstrate similar patterns with CMPA (~325.60 mm/h, std ~0.07 mm/h), except FY4A QPE (~281.79 mm/h, std ~0.18 mm/h), while, overall, the PERSIANN-CCS underestimates the precipitation against CMPA with a mean value around 236.29 mm/h (std ~0.06 mm/h), and the ERA5-Land, GSMap_Guage, and IMERG-Final generally overestimate the precipitation with a mean value around 370.00 mm/h (std ~0.06 mm/h). (2) The GSMap_Gauge outperforms IMERG-Final against CMPA with CC ~0.50 and RMSE ~1.51 mm/h, and CC ~0.48 and RMSE ~1.64 mm/h, respectively. (3) The PERSIANN-CCS significantly underestimates the precipitation (CC ~0.26, bias ~−35.03%, RMSE ~1.81 mm/h, probability of detection, POD, ~0.33, false alarm ratio, FAR, ~0.47), potentially due to its weak abilities to capture precipitation events and estimate the precipitation. (4) Though ERA5-Land has the best ability to capture precipitation events (POD ~0.78), the largest misjudgments (FAR ~0.54) result in its great uncertainties with CC ~ 0.39, which performs worse than those of GSMap_Gauge and IMERG-Final. (5) The ranking of precipitation products, in terms of the general evaluation metrics, over Zhejiang province is GSMap_Gauge, IMERG-Final, ERA5-Land, PERSIANN-CCS, and FY4A QPE, which provides valuable recommendations for applying these products in various related application fields.


Author(s):  
Khaled Hassan

To identify changes in the everyday life of hepatitis subjects, we conducted a descriptive, exploratory, and qualitative analysis. Data from 12 hepatitis B and/or C patients were collected in October 2011 through a semi-structured interview and subjected to thematic content review. Most subjects have been diagnosed with hepatitis B. The diagnosis period ranged from less than 6 months to 12 years, and the diagnosis was made predominantly through the donation of blood. Interferon was used in only two patients. The findings were divided into two groups that define the interviewees' feelings and responses, as well as some lifestyle changes. It was concluded that the magnitude of phenomena about the disease process and life with hepatitis must be understood to health professionals. Keywords: Hepatitis; Nursing; Communicable diseases; Diagnosis; Life change events; Nursing care.


Author(s):  
I. Khidirov ◽  
V. V. Getmanskiy ◽  
A. S. Parpiev ◽  
Sh. A. Makhmudov

This work relates to the field of thermophysical parameters of refractory interstitial alloys. The isochoric heat capacity of cubic titanium carbide TiCx has been calculated within the Debye approximation in the carbon concentration  range x = 0.70–0.97 at room temperature (300 K) and at liquid nitrogen temperature (80 K) through the Debye temperature established on the basis of neutron diffraction analysis data. It has been found out that at room temperature with decrease of carbon concentration the heat capacity significantly increases from 29.40 J/mol·K to 34.20 J/mol·K, and at T = 80 K – from 3.08 J/mol·K to 8.20 J/mol·K. The work analyzes the literature data and gives the results of the evaluation of the high-temperature dependence of the heat capacity СV of the cubic titanium carbide TiC0.97 based on the data of neutron structural analysis. It has been proposed to amend in the Neumann–Kopp formula to describe the high-temperature dependence of the titanium carbide heat capacity. After the amendment, the Neumann–Kopp formula describes the results of well-known experiments on the high-temperature dependence of the heat capacity of the titanium carbide TiCx. The proposed formula takes into account the degree of thermal excitation (a quantized number) that increases in steps with increasing temperature.The results allow us to predict the thermodynamic characteristics of titanium carbide in the temperature range of 300–3000 K and can be useful for materials scientists.


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