FAR BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN URBAN CHINA

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (S1) ◽  
pp. S4-S19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongwei Zhao ◽  
Qinzi Xu ◽  
Xin Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Urban China ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government

SummaryChina’s urban population has experienced rapid fertility decline over the past six decades. This drastic change will have a significant impact on China’s demographic, social and economic future. However, the patterns and characteristics of urban China’s fertility decline have not been systematically examined. This study analyses the trends and age patterns of fertility in urban China since the 1950s, and summarizes the major characteristics of reproductive behaviours into four ‘lows’: extremely ‘low’ level of fertility; ‘low’ proportion of two and higher parity births; ‘low’ mean age at birth; and ‘low’ level of childlessness. The paper argues that the highly homogenous reproductive behaviours found in China’s now near 800 million urban population have been in part shaped by the country’s unprecedented government intervention in family planning. The ‘later, longer, fewer’ campaign in the 1970s and the ‘one-child’ policy, in particular, have left clear imprints on China’s reproductive norms and fertility patterns. The government-led family planning programme, however, has not been the only driving force of fertility decline. A wide range of social, economic, political and cultural changes have also affected the transition in family formation, reproductive behaviour and fertility patterns, and this has become increasingly prominent in the past two decades.

IMPLEMENTATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN PREDICTING BIRTH RATE IN BATAM CITY USING BACKPROPAGATION METHOD

JURTEKSI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-94
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

Abstract: The population growth in Indonesia is increasing rapidly every year, so to help the government control the population growth through family planning programs, especially in the city of Batam. This study explains and describes one of the Artificial Terms Network methods, namely Backpropagation, where this method can predict what will happen in the future using data and information in the past. This study aims to predict the birth rate in the city of Batam to help the government with the family planning program. The data used is the annual data on the number of births in the city of Batam in 2016-2020 at The Civil Registry Office. To facilitate the analysis of research data, the data were tested using Matlab R2015b. In this study, the training process was carried out using 3 network architectures, namely 4-10-1, 5-18-1, and 4-43-1. Of these 3 architectures, the best is the 4-43-1 architecture with an accuracy rate of 91% and an MSE value of 0.0012205. The Backpropagation method can predict the amount of population growth in the city of Batam based on existing data in the past.           Keywords: artificial neural network; backpropagation; prediction   Abstrak: Pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk diindonesia yang setiap tahun meningkat dengan pesat, maka untuk membantu pemerintah mengendalikan jumlah pertumbuhan penduduk melalui program keluarga berencana khususnya dikota Batam. Penelitian ini  menjelaskan dan memaparkan tentang salah satu metode Jaringan Syarat Tiruan yaitu Backpropagation, dimana metode ini dapat memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi masa yang akan datang dengan menggunakan data dan informasi dimasa lalu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi tingkat kelahiran di kota Batam sehingga membatu pemerintah untuk perencanaan keluarga berencana. Data yang digunakan yaitu data tahunan jumlah kelahiran di kota Batam pada tahun 2016-2020 pada Dinas Kependudukan dan Catatan Sipil. Untuk mempermudah analisis data penelitian maka, data diuji menggunakan Matlab R2015b. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan proses pelatihan menggunakan  3 arsitektur jaringan yaitu 4-10-1, 5-18-1, dan 4-43-1. Dari ke-3 arsitektur ini yang terbaik adalah arsitektur 4-43-1 dengan tingkat akurasi sebesar 91% dan nilai MSE 0,0012205. Metode backpropagation mampu memprediksi jumlah pertumbuhan penduduk di kota Batam berdasarkan data yang ada dimasa lalu. Kata kunci: backpropagation; jaringan syaraf tiruan; prediksi 

scholarly journals Beyond ‘Family Planning’—Local Realities on Contraception and Abortion in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 212
Author(s):  
Seydou Drabo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Care Seeking ◽  
Contraceptive Methods ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government

Family planning has long been promoted within international health efforts because of its potential benefits for controlling population growth, reducing poverty and maternal and child mortality, empowering women, and enhancing environmental sustainability. In Burkina Faso, the government and donor partners share a commitment to ‘family planning’, notably by increasing the low uptake of ‘modern’ contraceptive methods in the general population and reducing recourse to induced abortion, which remains legally restricted. This paper presents ethnographic findings that show the complexity of family planning within the social context of women’s lives and care-seeking trajectories. It draws on participant observation in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso’s capital, and interviews with women with a wide range of reproductive experiences and providers of family planning services. First, the paper shows that women’s use of contraceptive methods and abortion is embedded in the wider social dilemmas relating to marriage, sexuality, and gendered relationships. Second, it shows that women use contraceptives to meet a variety of needs other than those promoted in public health policies. Thus, while women’s use of contraceptive methods is often equated with family planning within public health research and health policy discourse, the uses women make of them imbue them with other meanings related to social, spiritual, or aesthetic goals.

scholarly journals Awareness and practice of contraceptive methods among women in Kerala, India

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anila Tresa Alukal ◽  
Lissiamma George ◽  
Resmy C. Raveendran
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
World Population ◽  
Contraceptive Methods ◽  
Barrier Method ◽  
Medical College ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government

Background: India is the second most populous country in the world, sustaining 17.01% of world population on 2.4% of world’s surface area. Indian women have more children than desired and often too close together. Family Planning can have a positive impact on population growth, maternal mortality, and infant and new-born outcomes. In spite of availability of wide range of contraceptives, the unmet need for family planning is estimated to be 12.8%. The purpose of this study is to assess awareness of the effective use of contraceptive methods among pregnant women, which will provide useful information for future intervention strategies and the reduction of unwanted pregnancies.Methods: The study was conducted at the Government Medical College Thrissur, Kerala and study period was 1year (2014-2015). The awareness and contraceptive practices of 514 pregnant women who were admitted for delivery were assessed by using questionnaire. The data was entered in MS excel sheet and analysed using SPSS software.Results: the awareness regarding barrier method of contraception was maximum. (96.7%), followed by permanent methods (96.8%), IUCD (94.9%) and natural methods (92.6%). Around 71.6% of the study population has used some form of contraception. The most commonly contraceptive method was natural methods (69.6%) followed by barrier method (59.9%). IUCD was the method which was least practiced (2.9%) followed by OC pills (19.1%).Conclusions: Even though women are well aware of most of the contraceptive methods, the percentage of women using it is very low. This shows that there is good knowledge regarding contraceptive methods, but a change is needed in the attitude and practice.

Fertility, Marriage, and Family Planning in Iran: Implications for Future Policy

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi ◽  
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi ◽  
Peter McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Marriage And Family ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Program Policy ◽  
The Government

Abstract The Islamic Republic of Iran has experienced a remarkable demographic transition over the last three decades. As a result of social, demographic and economic changes, Iran’s fertility declined from 7.0 births per woman in 1980 to around 1.8 to 2.0 in 2011 based on our estimation (McDonald et al. 2015). The initial rise and rapid fall of fertility accompanied by a decline of child mortality led to a post-revolutionary youth bulge in the age distribution that will lead to rapid ageing in the longer-term future. Others have argued that Iran’s fertility has fallen to much lower levels - as low as 1.5 births per woman (eg. Erfani 2013). Such low estimates led to the Government of Iran adopting a pronatalist policy with the aim of increasing fertility, although the components of the policy are still under discussion. Different views have been expressed on the role of family planning and other programs in meeting population policy goals in Iran in the future with some advocating the discontinuation of government assistance to family planning. This paper aims to review the trends and levels of fertility, marriage, and family planning and their implications for policy. Using various datasets and detailed parity-based measures of fertility, the dynamics of fertility regulation practiced by Iranian couples are investigated. Our findings suggest that contraceptive use stabilized before 2000 and postponement of the first child and wide birth intervals are the main contributors to the level of fertility. Therefore, instead of discontinuation of the family planning program, policy to sustain fertility at its present level or a little higher needs to focus upon improving the economic circumstances of young people so that they are able to make less constrained choices about family formation than is the case at present.

Report Of The Food And Agriculture Commission (Review Article)

1962 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-105
Author(s):  
A. F. A. Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Review Article ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Specialized Knowledge ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Research Institutes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government

The Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission1 is the most comprehensive official study of the problems of food and agriculture undertaken in Pakistan since independence. The Report contains twelve chapters of which six are devoted to policy recommendations. The Report also contains seven appendices of which Appendix IV is the Interim Report of the Commission which was submitted to the Government in February 1960. The methods followed by the Commission in its enquiry are similar to those followed by agricultural commissions in the past. Questionnaires were circulated to government agencies, officials and members of the public likely to possess specialized knowledge in the field of food and agriculture. Also, fairly extensive tours were undertaken by members of the Commission all over the country to gain first-hand knowledge of the problems of agriculture; they visited agricultural colleges, research institutes, experimental stations, and seed and livestock farms, holding discussions with government officials and others on a wide range of topics. An interesting feature of the enquiry was the setting-up of seventeen advisory panels on particular topics composed almost entirely of officials having specialized knowledge or interest in the field in question. A few non-officials were also included in the panels but their number was very few. Unfortunately, the reports of the panels, which were presumably responsible for much of the technical work on which the Commission drew for their elucidation of the problems in hand as well as for policy recommendations, are not made available in the report.

scholarly journals Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1532) ◽  
pp. 2991-3007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex C. Ezeh ◽  
Blessing U. Mberu ◽  
Jacques O. Emina
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
National Level ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
African Countries

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.

Trends and Differentials in Moslem fertility

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa H. Nagi
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Fertility Differentials

SummaryThis paper examines data on fertility levels in 33 Moslem countries between 1960 and 1980. Fertility measures include crude birth rate, total fertility rate and age-specific birth rate, and the percentage change in them between 1960 and 1980.The analysis focuses on: (1) the current status of Moslem fertility in comparison to non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) the emerging fertility differentials among Moslem countries; (3) how much of the recent fertility declines in some Moslem countries is associated with modernization variables and with family planning efforts.The results indicate that: (1) Moslem fertility remains universally high and is generally higher than in non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) very few Moslem countries have succeeded in bringing down their level of fertility to justify a search for the predictors of Moslem fertility levels; (3) in spite of a sufficient range of variations in the economic and social correlates of fertility, the corresponding fertility variables in these countries do not suggest that the reproductive behaviour of Moslem women has reacted to such variations; (4) efforts directed towards stronger family planning programmes are clearly related to fertility decline.

scholarly journals Changes in Fertility Decline in Rwanda: A Decomposition Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Claver Rutayisire ◽  
Pieter Hooimeijer ◽  
Annelet Broekhuis
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Modern Contraceptive Use ◽  
Lower Fertility ◽  
The Impact

After having stalled in the 1990s, fertility in Rwanda resumed its downward trajectory between 2005 and 2010. The total fertility rate declined from 6.1 to 4.6 and modern contraceptive use increased. However, it is unclear which determinants lay behind the previous stall and the recent strong drop in fertility. This paper contributes to an ongoing debate on the impact of social upheavals on fertility decline. We use a decomposition analysis, focusing on the change in characteristics and reproductive behaviour of women and their contributions to levels of fertility during 1992–2000 and 2000–2010. Results show that due to widowhood and separation the proportion of women who were married decreased between 1992 and 2000, but their fertility increased in the same period due to replacement fertility and an unmet need for family planning. After 2000, postponement of marriage and lower infant mortality contributed to lower fertility, but the most important effect is the overall lower fertility due not only to improved family planning provision but perhaps also to the sensitizing campaigns of the Rwandan government.

scholarly journals Digital Transformation: An Overview of the Current State of the Art of Research

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110475
Author(s):  
Sascha Kraus ◽  
Paul Jones ◽  
Norbert Kailer ◽  
Alexandra Weinmann ◽  
Nuria Chaparro-Banegas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Systematic Literature Review ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current State ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Node Network ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts

The increasing digitalization of economies has highlighted the importance of digital transformation and how it can help businesses stay competitive in the market. However, disruptive changes not only occur at the company level; they also have environmental, societal, and institutional implications. This is the reason why during the past two decades the research on digital transformation has received growing attention, with a wide range of topics investigated in the literature. The following aims to provide insight regarding the current state of the literature on digital transformation (DT) by conducting a systematic literature review. An analysis of co-occurrence using the software VOSviewer was conducted to graphically visualize the literature’s node network. Approached this way, the systematic literature review displays major research avenues of digital transformation that consider technology as the main driver of these changes. This paper qualitatively classifies the literature on digital business transformation into three different clusters based on technological, business, and societal impacts. Several research gaps identified in the literature on DT are proposed as futures lines of research which could provide useful insights to the government and private sectors in order to adapt to the disruptive changes found in business as a result of this phenomenon, as well as to reduce its negative impacts on society and the environment.

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