scholarly journals A modelling analysis of pertussis transmission and vaccination in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
pp. 850-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. LUZ ◽  
C. T. CODEÇO ◽  
G. L. WERNECK ◽  
C. J. STRUCHINER

Pertussis is an infectious respiratory disease for which mass vaccination is an effective preventive strategy. In many developed countries, where high vaccination coverage has been maintained for approximately 50 years, re-emergence of the disease has been observed in all age groups. In the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), where vaccination started in the 1980s, surveillance data show no sign of disease re-emergence. We developed a mathematical model that incorporates the major demographic aspects of a large urban centre in a developing nation, in addition to the most important epidemiological aspects of disease transmission. Parameter values were estimated based on RJ demographic and vaccine coverage data. Overall, all vaccination strategies determined a major decrease (over 95% decrease when compared to the pre-vaccine era) in the incidence of primary infections (occurring in individuals who have never been immunized through infection or vaccine). On the other hand, the strategies (a) three doses at age 2–11 months, (b) three doses plus booster at age 12–23 months, (c) three doses plus booster at age 4–5 years, and (d) three doses plus both boosters, differently affected the incidence of secondary infections (occurring in previously infected/vaccinated individuals). Given that the immunity against pertussis wanes with time and that the infectious agent has not been eliminated from the population, it is expected that pertussis will continue to be a problem in RJ. Actually, since immunity acquired from vaccine wanes faster than disease-acquired immunity and the possibility of natural boosters has decreased with mass vaccination, an increase in the incidence of secondary infections among older age groups is expected (and predicted by the model). Possible explanations as to why this dynamics is not captured by the RJ surveillance system are discussed. A poorly effective surveillance system and a lack of awareness regarding loss of immunity and the possibility of pertussis infection in older age groups are among them. Finally, we bring attention to the need of (i) field studies for the measurement of pertussis incidence in adolescents and adults; (ii) better understanding of the transmission dynamics currently occurring in RJ, and (iii) re-evaluation of vaccination strategies with the possible introduction of acellular vaccines for the vaccination of older individuals.

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. O. Zakharova ◽  
S. V. Bulgakova ◽  
E. V. Treneva ◽  
A. V. Nikolaeva ◽  
P. I. Romanchuk ◽  
...  

The demographic situation in recent decades has been characterized by a progressive increase in the proportion of older age groups in both developed countries and the Russian Federation. The main contribution to morbidity and mortality of people over 60 years of age is made by diseases of the circulatory system. Early development and progression of cardiovascular diseases contributes to kidney dysfunction, often developing against the background of morphological changes occurring with age in the kidneys, called “senile kidney”. Reduction of glomerular filtration rate in elderly patients is not mandatory and in most cases occurs as a result of an existing pathological process. The combined effect of changes in GFR and cardiovascular disease on the prognosis of older patients remains poorly understood, which determines the relevance of the study of chronic kidney disease in geriatric patients.


2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00026
Author(s):  
Larisa Desfonteines ◽  
Elena Korchagina

An important peculiarity of the future economy is principal change in the labor market structure determined by demographic factors one of which is significant increase of pension aged population. This age group becomes the key potential resource of increasing the number of employed people in all the developed and in some developing countries. Population with graying hair becomes a powerful resource for development of economy of a new type which has received a poetic name – “silver” economy. Studying the problems and prospects of developing the “silver” economy is one of the most actual scientific tasks of the modern time. The second important tendency of the modern era is vigorous development of technologies and transition to digital economy. Successful involvement in the changing labor market requires confident mastering of modern informational communicational technologies. However, this task is a certain challenge for representatives of the “silver generation”. A review of foreign studies on the problems of the influence of demographic changes at the labor market of developed countries on the structure and quality of labor force is represented in the article; a dynamics of using modern digital technologies by representatives of the “silver generation” is described; the instruments of stimulating the use of modern information technologies in older age groups are distinguished. The analysis of demographic tendencies in Russia is conducted; the necessity of involving employable representatives of older age groups in the labor market is justified. On the basis of the empirical study undertaken by the authors, the peculiarities of value orientations at work places of representatives of different age groups are distinguished and characterized, and also key psychological characteristics of representatives of the elder generations of employees as members of work collectives are described.


2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A Moberley ◽  
Sandra J Carlson ◽  
David N Durrheim ◽  
Craig B Dalton

Following Australia’s severe influenza season in 2017, the health departments of the states and territories commenced funding in 2018 of influenza vaccine for all children aged six months to five years. As the national immunisation register has recently been extended to include recording of vaccination for all age groups, Australia’s community-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance system, Flutracking, was used to explore influenza vaccine coverage in participants. Flutracking participants respond to a weekly survey about ILI from April to October each year. Participants report their influenza vaccine status with the current year’s vaccine in the first weekly survey, and if unvaccinated (or unknown), participants are prompted with the question weekly until the end of the Flutracking season. Detailed methods for Flutracking are available elsewhere.1 Self-reported vaccine coverage by age group (<5 years, 5 to 17 years, 18 to 64 years and ≥65 years) was calculated at 21 October (timing of the final 2018 Flutracking survey) for participants who had completed at least one survey in 2018. The five-year average was calculated for the percentage vaccinated at the end of the Flutracking survey for the years 2013 to 2017, and compared to 2018. Flutracking received ethics approval from the University of Newcastle (# 06/03/22.403) in 2006. In 2009 the program applied to the University of Newcastle to exit the ethics committee review as Flutracking had been incorporated into the national influenza surveillance system. The total number of participants completing at least one survey increased from 18,437 in 2013 to 45,532 in 2018. Flutracking participants are more likely to be female (59.8% compared to 50.4%) and more likely to have completed a postgraduate degree (22.6% compared to 3.6%) than the general Australian population.2 A relatively large proportion of Flutracking participants are health care workers, working face to face with patients (17.5%). Keywords: flutracking, vaccine coverage, influenza vaccine, influenza like illness, community based surveillance


2019 ◽  
pp. 35-62
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Gimpelson ◽  
Daria I. Zinchenko

The article focuses on the wage formation of workers in the pre-retirement and retirement age in Russia. For this, the authors analyze age-wage profile and wage differentiation within and between age groups. The study exploits the Sample Survey of Household Incomes and Participation in Social Programs for 2016 which has a large sample and covers all groups of employed in the economy . It measures wages payed during the year 2015, thus allowing estimates for annual as well as hourly wages. Multiple previous studies across developed countries come to the consensus that wages tend to grow over age until late in life, though with decreasing pace. However, this pattern does not show up in Russian data. Earnings peak early in working life and then decline monotonically. By their pre-retirement age, Russian workers find themselves on the declining wage trend. Though this deviation from stylized facts has already been noted in the literature, we explore it using the new and more comprehensive dataset. In addition, our analysis deals with annual earnings as well as hourly wage rates, and it explores trends in hours worked over age. The findings suggest that wage differentiation tends to be higher among older age workers reflecting stronger selection into employment with age. Given the forecast of changes in the age composition of employment by 2025—2030 and assuming the stability of the age-wage profile, we can expect non-trivial reallocation of the aggregate wage fund to the benefit of the middle age group of workers while the old age group is likely be unaffected.


2002 ◽  
Vol 128 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. L. CIOFI DEGLI ATTI ◽  
M. C. ROTA ◽  
D. MANDOLINI ◽  
A. BELLA ◽  
G. GABUTTI ◽  
...  

We conducted a study to assess the degree of varicella underreporting in Italy, and its distribution by age group and geographical area. Underreporting in individuals from 6 months to 20 years of age was computed as the ratio between the varicella seroprevalence in 1996 and the 1996 lifetime cumulative incidence based on statutory notifications. The degree of underreporting at the national level was 7·7 (95% CI 7·4–7·9); underreporting was greater in older age groups and in southern Italy. Quantification of underreporting can contribute to better understanding of the burden of varicella and to evaluating the potential impact of mass vaccination.


Author(s):  
Laurence Caron-Poulin ◽  
Jenny Rotondo ◽  
Jennifer Cutler ◽  
Shalini Desai ◽  
Susan Squires

ObjectiveTo describe the recent trends in the burden of disease and mortalityassociated with vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs).IntroductionVaccination is one of the most successful public healthinterventions. Despite this, there are a variety of reasons that VPDscontinue to be seen in developed countries such as Canada. Thisanalysis describes the recent trends in the burden of disease andmortality associated with VPDs for which publicly funded vaccinationprograms for infants or children are implemented across the countryand for which national surveillance data are available.MethodsSurveillance data on VPDs were obtained from the CanadianNotifiable Disease Surveillance System. Population and death datawere obtained from Statistics Canada. Death data were only availableto 2012. In total, 11 VPDs have been included in the analysesnamely tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, polio, haemophilus influenza(Hi), measles, mumps, rubella, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS),invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), invasive pneumococcaldisease (IPD). Exclusion of non-vaccine preventable serotypes fromeither data source was not possible. Analyses included incidence rate,proportion, mortality rate and risk ratio.ResultsSurveillance data indicate that from 2010 to 2014, an average of6,020 cases of VPDs were reported annually, representing an averageannual crude incidence rate of 17.3 cases per 100,000 population.VPDs accounting for the largest proportion of reported cases includeIPD (54.4%) and pertussis (29.6%). Age groups most affected includechildren less than 1 year of age (92.6 cases per 100,000) and childrenbetween 1 and 4 years of age (36.0 cases per 100,000). Age groupsleast affected include adults between 20 and 24 years old (6.9 casesper 100,000 population) and between 25 and 29 years old (7.3 casesper 100,000 population). Age groups affected differed by VPD.Death data indicate that from 2010 to 2012, VPDs accountingfor the largest proportion of deaths across all ages include IPD(58.2%), Hi (16.3%) and IMD (15.3%). Youth aged 19 years andunder accounted for 26.1% of VPDs deaths (mortality rate of 0.17 per100,000 population). Children less than one year old have the highestmortality rate due to VPDs (2.0 per 100,000 population) and were26.9 times more likely to die from VPDs compared to children between1 and 19 years of age. Adults aged 20 years and older accounted for73.9% of VPD deaths (mortality rate of 0.14 per 100,000 population).A high mortality rate was also seen in adults 60 year old and over(0.3 per 100,000 population); adults 60 years old and over were more2.6 times more likely to die from VPDs compared to adults between20 and 59 years old.ConclusionsThe results of routine Canadian surveillance data suggest thatdespite high vaccine coverage rates generally seen in developedcountries such as Canada, a possible preventable burden of illnessdue to VPDs still occurs across all age groups. Consideration ofVPDs as a whole allows a real appreciation of the burden and deathsassociated with VPDs in general. The analysis has shown that whilethe incidence rates are highest among children 4 years old andyounger, mortality due to VPDs continues to occur and primarilyaffects infants and elderly. Due to the asymptomatic nature of someVPDs and data limitations, reported cases are likely underestimatesof the true burden.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anu Kohli ◽  
Neha Tiwari

This research paper analyses factors that impact entrepreneurial intention among graduate and postgraduate students enrolled in professional courses at government and private institutes in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The objective of this study is to analyze whether the student’s academic background, demographic profile and family background impact various factors that affect entrepreneurial intention. The study was conducted during 2015-16 on a sample of 460 student respondents across various cities of Uttar Pradesh.The results of the analysis indicate that students of male gender, belonging to higher income, in older age groups, having work experience, enrolled in government institutes, belonging to business background and enrolled at postgraduate level are more likely to consider entrepreneurship as a more attractive career option, perceive that it is easier to start and do business, have more positive perception about family and societal support they receive in entrepreneurial career choice, are more open to risks and are more confident about their entrepreneurial skills and knowledge . The students having work experience, enrolled in government institutes, and belonging to business background are more likely to find availability of capital as a constraint in entrepreneurial career. The students belonging to older age groups, having work experience and enrolled in government institutes are more likely to consider availability of land/premise and resources as a constraint in entrepreneurial choice. The findings of this study will be instrumental in understanding and in designing policy imperatives for promoting entrepreneurship in the state.Key Words: Entrepreneurial intention, Students, Demographic factors, Family background, Educational background.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Leszek ◽  
M Zaleska-Kociecka ◽  
D Was ◽  
K Witczak ◽  
K Bartolik ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in developed countries. Most of the information about HF is based on selected cohorts, the real epidemiology of HF is scarce. Purpose To assess trends in the real world incidence, prevalence and mortality of all in-and outpatients with HF who presented in public health system in 2009–2018 in Poland. Methods It is a retrospective analysis of 1,990,162 patients who presented with HF in Poland in years 2009–2018. It is a part of nationwide Polish Ministry of Health registry that collects detailed information for the entire Polish population (38,495,659 in 2013) since 2009. Detailed data within the registry were collected since 2013. HF was recorded if HF diagnosis was coded (ICD-10). Results The incidence of HF in Poland fell down from 2013 to reach 127,036 newly diagnosed cases (330 per 100,000 population) in 2018 that equals to 43.6% drop. This decrease was mainly driven by marked reduction in females (p&lt;0.001; Fig. 1A) and HF of ischaemic etiology (HF-IE vs HF-nonIE, Fig. 1B. p&lt;0.001). The HF incidence per 100,000 population decreased across all age groups with the greatest drop in the youngest (Table 1). The prevalence rose by 11.6% to reach 1,242,129 (3233 per 100,000 population) in 2018 with significantly greater increase in females and HF-IE (both p&lt;0.0001, Fig. 1C and D, respectively). The HF prevalence per 100,000 population increased across all age groups except for the 70–79 years old. (Table 1). Mortality increased by 28.5% to reach 142,379 cases (370 per 100,000 population) in 2018. The rise was more pronounced among females (p=0.015, Fig. 1E) and in HF-IE (p&lt;0.001, Fig. 1F). The HF mortality per 100 000 population increased across all age groups, except for the 50–59 subgroup (Table 1). Conclusions Heart failure incidence plummeted in years 2013–2018 in Poland due to drop in newly diagnosed HF-IE. Despite that fact, the prevalence and mortality increased with rising trends in HF-IE. Figure 1. Incidence, prevalence, mortality trends Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The project is co-financed by the European Union from the European Social Fund under the Operational Programme Knowledge Education Development and it is being carried out by the Analyses and Strategies Department of the Polish Ministry of Health


Author(s):  
Tatiana C R Senna ◽  
Maria Inês F Pimentel ◽  
Liliane F A Oliveira ◽  
Marcelo R Lyra ◽  
Mauricio N Saheki ◽  
...  

Abstract Background American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a neglected disease with wide territorial distribution. Knowledge is scarce in children and adolescents. This study aims to compare the clinical features and response to antimony treatment in pediatric and adult patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis. Methods A retrospective cohort study was performed with 659 patients who attended a reference centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2000 to 2015. The pediatric cohort consisted of 131 (20%) patients and the adult cohort consisted of 528 (80%) patients. Results The epidemiological profile, antimony therapeutic response and incidence of adverse events (AE) were different in the pediatric cohort compared with the adult cohort. Mucosal form was less frequent in the pediatric cohort (RR:0.49, p=0.011). Lesions in the head, neck and trunk were more frequent in the pediatric cohort (RR:1.49, p=0.043). The effectiveness of antimony treatment was superior in the pediatric cohort (88.3% vs 76.6%) with a shorter healing time (RR:0.49, p=0.009). Pediatric patients had lower proportions of moderate to severe AE compared with adults (RR:0.45, p=0.027). Clinical AE predominated in the adult cohort (RR:0.40, p=0.000) and laboratory AE in the pediatric cohort (RR:1.50, p=0.023). Conclusions This study adds to the body of knowledge on differences that exist between different age groups in ATL.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document