scholarly journals The descriptive epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 during the epidemic period in Lu'an, China: achieving limited community transmission using proactive response strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Qin ◽  
Jie Sun ◽  
Pengpeng Xu ◽  
Tianqi Gong ◽  
Xiude Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Asymptomatic Carrier ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Initial Symptom ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Hubei province in China has had the most confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and has reported sustained transmission of the disease. Although Lu'an city is adjacent to Hubei province, its community transmission was blocked at the early stage, and the impact of the epidemic was limited. Therefore, we summarised the overall characteristics of the entire epidemic course in Lu'an to help cities with a few imported cases better contain the epidemic. A total of 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 11 asymptomatic carriers were identified in Lu'an during the epidemic from 12 January to 21 February 2020. Fifty-two (65.0%) cases were male, and the median age was 40 years. On admission, 56.5% of cases had a fever as the initial symptom, and pneumonia was present in 89.9% of cases. The mean serial interval and the mean duration of hospitalisation were 6.5 days (95% CI: 4.8–8.2) and 18.2 days (95% CI: 16.8–19.5), respectively. A total of 16 clusters involving 60 cases (17 first-generation cases and 43 secondary cases) were reported during the epidemic. We observed that only 18.9% (7/37) index cases resulted in community transmission during the epidemic in Lu'an, indicating that the scale of the epidemic was limited to a low level in Lu'an city. An asymptomatic carrier caused the largest cluster, involving 13 cases. Spread of COVID-19 by asymptomatic carriers represents an enormous challenge for countries responding to the pandemic.

scholarly journals Subcritical Transmission in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1265
Author(s):  
Yong Sul Won ◽  
Jong-Hoon Kim ◽  
Chi Young Ahn ◽  
Hyojung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Reporting Delays

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been ongoing in Korea since January 2020, there were limited transmissions during the early stages of the outbreak. In the present study, we aimed to provide a statistical characterization of COVID-19 transmissions that led to this small outbreak. We collated the individual data of the first 28 confirmed cases reported from 20 January to 10 February 2020. We estimated key epidemiological parameters such as reporting delay (i.e., time from symptom onset to confirmation), incubation period, and serial interval by fitting probability distributions to the data based on the maximum likelihood estimation. We also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) using the renewal equation, which allows for the transmissibility to differ between imported and locally transmitted cases. There were 16 imported and 12 locally transmitted cases, and secondary transmissions per case were higher for the imported cases than the locally transmitted cases (nine vs. three cases). The mean reporting delays were estimated to be 6.76 days (95% CI: 4.53, 9.28) and 2.57 days (95% CI: 1.57, 4.23) for imported and locally transmitted cases, respectively. The mean incubation period was estimated to be 5.53 days (95% CI: 3.98, 8.09) and was shorter than the mean serial interval of 6.45 days (95% CI: 4.32, 9.65). The R0 was estimated to be 0.40 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.99), accounting for the local and imported cases. The fewer secondary cases and shorter reporting delays for the locally transmitted cases suggest that contact tracing of imported cases was effective at reducing further transmissions, which helped to keep R0 below one and the overall transmissions small.

scholarly journals A descriptive study of the impact of diseases control and prevention on the epidemics dynamics and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Shanghai, lessons learned for metropolis epidemics prevention

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongzhou Lu ◽  
Jingwen Ai ◽  
Yinzhong Shen ◽  
Yang Li ◽  
Tao Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Features ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjectiveTo describe and evaluate the impact of diseases control and prevention on epidemics dynamics and clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Shanghai.DesignA retrospective descriptive studySettingChinaParticipantsEpidemiology information was collected from publicly accessible database. 265 patients admitted to Shanghai Public Health Center with confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled for clinical features analysis.Main outcome measurePrevention and control measures taken by Shanghai government, epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiology data were collected. Weibull distribution, Chi-square test, Fisher’s exact test, t test or Mann-Whitney U test were used in statistical analysis.ResultsCOVID-19 transmission rate within Shanghai had reduced over 99% than previous speculated, and the exponential growth has been stopped so far. Epidemic was characterized by the first stage mainly composed of imported cases and the second stage where >50% of cases were local. The incubation period was 6.4 (95% CI 5.3 to 7.6) days and the mean onset-admission interval was 5.5 days (95% CI, 5.1 to 5.9). Median time for COVID-19 progressed to severe diseases were 8.5 days (IQR: 4.8-11.0 days). By February 11th, proportion of patients being mild, moderate, severe and critically ill were 1.9%(5/265), 89.8%(238/265), 3.8%(10/265), 4.5%(12/265), respectively; 47 people in our cohort were discharged, and 1 patient died.ConclusionStrict controlling of the transmission rate at the early stage of an epidemic in metropolis can quickly prohibit the spread of the diseases. Controlling local clusters is the key to prevent outbreaks from imported cases. Most COVID-19 severe cases progressed within 14 days of disease onset. Multiple systemic laboratory abnormalities had been observed before significant respiratory dysfunction.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of imported cases with COVID-19 infection: a multicentre study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinjun Zhang ◽  
Shixiong Yang ◽  
Yi Xu ◽  
Jialiang Liu ◽  
Jinjun Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multicentre Study ◽  
Basic Principle ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Medical Service ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Gender Composition ◽  
The World ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Objective: Numerous cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the world in succession. We reported the epidemiological and clinical features of 478 confirmed cases from a multicentre study outside of Wuhan, China. Methods : We collected patients who were transferred by Emergency Medical Service to the designated hospitals in four major cities including Beijing, Chongqing, Jinan and Nanning in China. We compared the characteristics between imported and indigenous cases, and calculated the fatality, and the rate of severe cases, mild and asymptomatic cases to generate the pyramid of COVID-19 infection. Results : The mean age of patients was 46.9 years old and 49.8% were male. The most common symptoms at the onset of illness were fever (69.7% ), cough (47.5%), fatigue (24.5%), dyspnea (8.4%) and headache (7.9%). In the study, most cases (313, 65.5%) were indigenous, while 165 (34.5%) were imported. During the early stage, the imported cases were dominant, which declined from Feb 1, when the indigenous cases rise sharply. Compared with the indigenous cases, the imported cases were significantly distinct concerning gender composition (P=0.002), classification of severity (P=0.006). Conclusions : On the basis of this study, we suggest that preventing import from outside and controlling spread inside should be a basic principle for resisting COVID-19 infection. If not, the region or area will face chaos.

Asteroid and Comet Impact Speeds upon Mars: Significance for Panspermia and the Supply of Organics

1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Regions Of Interest ◽  
Significant Fraction ◽  
Organic Chemicals ◽  
Impact Speed ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.

Sound Production Treatment for Acquired Apraxia of Speech: An Examination of Dosage in Relation to Probe Performance

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Julie L. Wambaugh ◽  
Lydia Kallhoff ◽  
Christina Nessler
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Sound Production ◽  
Apraxia Of Speech ◽  
Practice Schedule ◽  
Practice Schedules ◽  
Baseline Performance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Number Of Treatment ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study was designed to examine the association of dosage and effects of Sound Production Treatment (SPT) for acquired apraxia of speech. Method Treatment logs and probe data from 20 speakers with apraxia of speech and aphasia were submitted to a retrospective analysis. The number of treatment sessions and teaching episodes was examined relative to (a) change in articulation accuracy above baseline performance, (b) mastery of production, and (c) maintenance. The impact of practice schedule (SPT-Blocked vs. SPT-Random) was also examined. Results The average number of treatment sessions conducted prior to change was 5.4 for SPT-Blocked and 3.9 for SPT-Random. The mean number of teaching episodes preceding change was 334 for SPT-Blocked and 179 for SPT-Random. Mastery occurred within an average of 13.7 sessions (1,252 teaching episodes) and 12.4 sessions (1,082 teaching episodes) for SPT-Blocked and SPT-Random, respectively. Comparisons of dosage metric values across practice schedules did not reveal substantial differences. Significant negative correlations were found between follow-up probe performance and the dosage metrics. Conclusions Only a few treatment sessions were needed to achieve initial positive changes in articulation, with mastery occurring within 12–14 sessions for the majority of participants. Earlier occurrence of change or mastery was associated with better follow-up performance. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.12592190

Impact of changing rainfall conditions on surface and groundwater resources in an experimental watershed in Greece

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-125
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Rainfall Volume ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
The Impact

The present study concerns the impact of a change in the rainfall regime on surface and groundwater resources in an experimental watershed. The research is conducted in a gauged mountainous watershed (15.18 km2) that is located on the eastern side of Penteli Mountain, in the prefecture of Attica, Greece and the study period concerns the years from 2003 to 2008. The decrease in the annual rainfall depth during the last two hydrological years 2006-2007, 2007-2008 is 10% and 35%, respectively, in relation to the average of the previous years. In addition, the monthly distribution of rainfall is characterized by a distinct decrease in winter rainfall volume. The field measurements show that this change in rainfall conditions has a direct impact on the surface runoff of the watershed, as well as on the groundwater reserves. The mean annual runoff in the last two hydrological years has decreased by 56% and 75% in relation to the average of the previous years. Moreover, the groundwater level follows a declining trend and has dropped significantly in the last two years.

KAJIAN DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PENUTUPAN LOKALISASI TELEJU OLEH PEMERINTAH KOTA PEKANBARU

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
M. Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Social Order ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Policy Content ◽  
The Government ◽  
Closure Policy ◽  
The Impact

This research to analyze the impact of closure policy Teleju brothel by Pekanbaru govermentin 2010. Guidelines for works are Pekanbaru Local Regulations No. 12 of 2008 on Social Order-liness. Closure this brothel inflicts positive and negative impact for society.The research wasconducted to obtain early stage formula for the government to take action against the prostitu-tion activities. This research uses policy research approach with a qualitative method, becausein prostitution activities and prohibition by goverment is an assessment that needs to be done byanalyzing documents and unstructured interview.The results showed that after the closing of the Teleju brothel have an impact on the deploy-ment of a prostitution and affect the economy of the surrounding residents. Government seeksto tackle prostitution in Pekanbaru by moving the brothel, conduct regular raids and providetraining. The effort is considered to be less than the maximum because the handling is not basedon the root of the problem and not programmed properly. There are several causes of failure ofgovernment to overcome the prostitution problem in Pekanbaru, including: policy content isless focus on the prostitution problem, the government did not proceeds with data, lack of finan-cial support, contra productive programs between local government with the police and TNI,and the policy object is difficult to be given understanding.

Fluoxetine Protects against Dendritic Spine Loss in Middle-aged APPswe/PSEN1dE9 Double Transgenic Alzheimer’s Disease Mice

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Ma ◽  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Wei Tang ◽  
Wei Huang ◽  
Yong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Dendritic Spines ◽  
Dendritic Spine ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Learning Ability ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Protein Levels ◽  
Spine Pathology ◽  
The Impact

Background: Studies have suggested that cognitive impairment in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is associated with dendritic spine loss, especially in the hippocampus. Fluoxetine (FLX) has been shown to improve cognition in the early stage of AD and to be associated with diminishing synapse degeneration in the hippocampus. However, little is known about whether FLX affects the pathogenesis of AD in the middle-tolate stage and whether its effects are correlated with the amelioration of hippocampal dendritic dysfunction. Previously, it has been observed that FLX improves the spatial learning ability of middleaged APP/PS1 mice. Objective: In the present study, we further characterized the impact of FLX on dendritic spines in the hippocampus of middle-aged APP/PS1 mice. Results: It has been found that the numbers of dendritic spines in dentate gyrus (DG), CA1 and CA2/3 of hippocampus were significantly increased by FLX. Meanwhile, FLX effectively attenuated hyperphosphorylation of tau at Ser396 and elevated protein levels of postsynaptic density 95 (PSD-95) and synapsin-1 (SYN-1) in the hippocampus. Conclusion: These results indicated that the enhanced learning ability observed in FLX-treated middle-aged APP/PS1 mice might be associated with remarkable mitigation of hippocampal dendritic spine pathology by FLX and suggested that FLX might be explored as a new strategy for therapy of AD in the middle-to-late stage.

(Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Banasik ◽  
Dariusz Jemielniak ◽  
Wojciech P?dzich
Keyword(s):  
Medical Condition ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Life Duration ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Academic Teachers ◽  
Length Of Life ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND There have been mixed results of the studies checking whether prayers do actually extend the life duration of the people prayed for. Most studies on the topic included a small number of prayers and most of them focused on people already struggling with a medical condition. Intercessory prayer’s influence on health is of scholarly interest, yet it is unclear if its effect may be dependent on the number of prayers for a named individual received per annum. OBJECTIVE We sought to examine if there is a noticeable increased longevity effect of intercessory prayer for a named individual’s well-being, if he receives a very high number of prayers per annum for an extended period. METHODS We retrieved and conducted a statistical analysis of the data about the length of life for 857 Roman Catholic bishops, 500 Catholic priests, and 3038 male academics from the US, France, Italy, Poland, Brazil, and Mexico. We obtained information for these individuals who died between 1988 and 2018 from Wikidata, and conducted an observational cohort study. Bishops were chosen for the study, as they receive millions of individual prayers for well being, according to conservative estimates. RESULTS There was a main effect for occupation F(2, 4391) = 4.07, p = .017, ηp 2 = .002, with pairwise comparisons indicating significant differences between the mean life duration of bishops (M=30489) and of priests (M=29894), but none between the academic teachers (M=30147) and either of the other groups. A comparison analysis between bishops from the largest and the smallest dioceses showed no significant difference t(67.31)=1.61, p = .11. Our main outcome measure is covariance of the mean length of life in each of the categories: bishops, priests, academic teachers, controlled for nationality. CONCLUSIONS The first analysis proved that bishops live longer than priests, but due to a marginal effect size this result should be treated with caution. No difference was found between the mean length of life of bishops from the largest and the smallest dioceses. We found no difference between bishops and male academics. These results show that the impact of intercessory prayers on longevity is not observable.

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