scholarly journals COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnab Chanda
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Infection Spread

Abstract The spread of COVID-19 is recent in India, which has within 4 months caused over 190 000 infections, as of 1 June 2020, despite four stringent lockdowns. With the current rate of the disease transmission in India, which is home to over 1.35 billion people, the infection spread is predicted to be worse than the USA in the upcoming months. To date, there is a major lack of understanding of the transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the disease in India, inhibiting effective measures to control the pandemic. We collected all the available data of the individual patients, cases and a range of parameters such as population distribution, testing and healthcare facilities, and weather, across all Indian states till May 2020. Numerical analysis was conducted to determine the effect of each parameter on the COVID-19 situation in India. A significant amount of local transmission in India initiated with travellers returning from abroad. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are currently the top three infected states in India with doubling time of 14.5 days. The average recovery rate across Indian states is 42%, with a mortality rate below 3%. The rest 55% are currently active cases. In total, 88% of the patients experienced symptoms of high fever, 68% suffered from dry cough and 7.1% patients were asymptomatic. In total, 66.8% patients were males, 73% were in the age group of 20–59 years and over 83% recovered in 11–25 days. Approximately 3.4 million people were tested between 1 April and 25 May 2020, out of which 4% were detected COVID-19-positive. Given the current doubling time of infections, several states may face a major shortage of public beds and healthcare facilities soon. Weather has minimal effect on the infection spread in most Indian states. The study results will help policymakers to predict the trends of the disease spread in the upcoming months and devise better control measures.

scholarly journals Inference of seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (9) ◽  
pp. 2723-2728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Yang ◽  
Marc Lipsitch ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
Influenza Transmission ◽  
Inference Methods ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

The inference of key infectious disease epidemiological parameters is critical for characterizing disease spread and devising prevention and containment measures. The recent emergence of surveillance records mined from big data such as health-related online queries and social media, as well as model inference methods, permits the development of new methodologies for more comprehensive estimation of these parameters. We use such data in conjunction with Bayesian inference methods to study the transmission dynamics of influenza. We simultaneously estimate key epidemiological parameters, including population susceptibility, the basic reproductive number, attack rate, and infectious period, for 115 cities during the 2003–2004 through 2012–2013 seasons, including the 2009 pandemic. These estimates discriminate key differences in the epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks across 10 y, as well as spatial variations of influenza transmission dynamics among subpopulations in the United States. In addition, the inference methods appear to compensate for observational biases and underreporting inherent in the surveillance data.

Assessment of Knowledge of COVID-19 among health care workers: Cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1977-1983
Author(s):  
Madhana Gopal K ◽  
Meganathan M ◽  
Deepa Kameswari P
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care Workers ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Knowledge Score ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Clinical Aspects ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Study Results

COVID-19 is spread by human-to-human transmission through many modes. To date, no antiviral treatment or vaccine has been explicitly recommended for COVID-19. Therefore, applying preventive measures to control COVID-19 infection is the most critical intervention. The rate of disease spread is high in hospitals, and hence the health care workers (HCWs) are at most risk of getting infected. This is an online observational, cross-sectional survey carried out in Tamil Nadu state of South India using a snowball sampling technique during April 2020. Medical, nursing, physiotherapy and allied health science's staff from various hospitals are included in the survey. Using Google forms, the willing participants were encountered with 30 multiple choice questions related to clinical knowledge of COVID-19. By the end of the month, we have received 162 responses from various HCWs; among them are medical, nursing, physiotherapy and other paramedical staff. Most of the respondents were nurses (29.6%) and physician’s (23.4%). The average knowledge score of all the respondents in regards to COVID-19 was moderate at a correct overall rate of 62.1%. The study results say physicians showed the highest knowledge score on COVID-19, followed by nurses and other paramedics. There is a gap between the knowledge and information regarding the clinical aspects of COVID-19 among health care workers.

scholarly journals Quality of Life assessment of people with Epilepsy in COVID Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Life Assessment ◽  
National Assessment ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Health Organization

The lock down in COVID-19 affected India’s economy, health and quality of life, causing an indefinite standstill for the majority of major urban areas in India. Check out the different economic and health challenges faced by the urban populations of India and their lock down perceptions, CHD Group has conducted the Mangalore based global health organization this national evaluation survey. 604 respondents from 25 Indian states (including the Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir Union territories) were surveyed. The survey involved respondents from all the worst-hit countries, including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Ra, who had confirmed COVID-19 as on 1 May 2020. According to the CHD Group’s COVID-19 Lock down National Assessment Survey, 40% of India’s urban population is living in fear of unemployment. In addition, 15% of employed respondents do not receive the same monthly income during the lock-down period. A worryingly large proportion (48 %) of respondents face difficulties in accessing essential commodities during the lock-up. 21% faced difficulties in purchasing medicines, and 18% faced difficulties in accessing healthcare facilities, even in urban centres. Inadequate access to healthcare facilities during the lockdown may lead to potential exacerbations of their pre-existing illnesses. Furthermore, access constraints to medicines and healthcare facilities were highest among respondents from the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, which also collectively account to nearly 60% of COVID-19 cases in India. (https://www.chdefforts.org/ publications/, 2020) Based on the situation, we planned the assessment of Quality of Life of People with Epilepsy during the COVID Pandemic.

scholarly journals Interstate disparities in the performances in combatting COVID-19 in India: efficiency estimates across states

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shrabanti Maity ◽  
Nandini Ghosh ◽  
Ummey Rummana Barlaskar
Keyword(s):  
Disease Management ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
Stochastic Production Frontier ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Comparative Efficiency ◽  
Long Run

Abstract Background Currently, the novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic poses the greatest global health threat worldwide, and India is no exception. As an overpopulated developing country, it is very difficult to maintain social distancing to restrict the spread of the disease in India. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to examine India’s interstate performances to combat COVID-19. This study aims to explore twin objectives: to investigate the comparative efficiency of Indian states to combat COVID-19 and to unfold the factors responsible for interstate disparities in the efficiency in combatting COVID-19. Methods The stochastic production frontier model was utilized for data analysis. The empirical analysis was facilitated by the inefficiency effects model, revealing the factors that influence interstate variability in disease management efficiency. Three types of variables, namely, output, inputs, and exogenous, were used to measure health system efficiency. The relevant variables were compiled from secondary sources. The recovery rate from COVID-19 was the output variable and health infrastructures were considered as the input variable. On the contrary, the non-health determinants considered to have a strong influence on the efficiency of states’ disease management, but could not be considered as input variables, were recognised as exogenous variables. These exogenous variables were specifically used for the inefficiency analysis. Results The empirical results demonstrated the existence of disparities across Indian states in the level of efficiency in combatting COVID-19. A non-trivial outcome of this study was that Tamil Nadu was the best performer and Manipur was the worst performer of the investigated states. Variables such as elderly people, sex ratio, literacy rate, population density, influenced the efficiency of states, and thus, affected the recovery rate. Conclusion This study argues for the efficient utilisation of the existing health infrastructures in India. Simultaneously, the study suggests improving the health infrastructure to achieve a long-run benefit.

scholarly journals Water resilience mapping of Chennai, India using analytical hierarchy process

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Kaaviya ◽  
V. Devadas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Chennai City ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Abstract Background The urban water system is the worst hit in global climate change. Water resilience is the system’s ability to retaliate and recover from various water-related disruptions. The present study aims to delineate the water resilience zones in Chennai city, Tamil Nadu, India, by effectively integrating the geographic information system, remote sensing, and analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Methods The methodology incorporated 15 vital factors. A multi-criteria decision analysis technique was adopted to assign a weight to each parameter using the AHP. A pairwise decision matrix was constructed, parameter’s relative importance and the consistency ratio were established. Integration of all maps by weighted overlay analysis technique depicted water resilience intensities of five different classes. Results Very low, low and moderate water resilience areas accounted for more than three-fourth of the study area. Area Under Curve score (80.12%) depicted the accuracy of the developed model. Sensitivity analysis determined the significance of the parameters in the delineation. The logical structural approach can be employed in other parts of India or elsewhere with modifications. Conclusion This study is novel in its approach by holistically analyzing water resilience by integrating disruptions related to flood, drought and the city's water infrastructure system's adequacy and efficiency. Researchers and planners can effectively use the study results to ensure resilience as a new perspective on effective water resource management and climate change mitigation. It becomes a decision aid mechanism identifying where the system is vulnerable to potential water-related risks for employing resilience measures.

scholarly journals Pazopanib in Patients with Osteosarcoma Metastatic to the Lung: Phase 2 Study Results and the Lessons for Tumor Measurement

2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Paul Frankel ◽  
Chris Ruel ◽  
An Uche ◽  
Edwin Choy ◽  
Scott Okuno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Doubling Time ◽  
Kinase Inhibitor ◽  
Common Adverse Event ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Tumor Doubling Time ◽  
Metastatic Osteosarcoma ◽  
Phase 2 Study ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Slow Growing

Background. This single-arm, multicenter, phase 2 study evaluated the safety and antitumor activity of pazopanib in patients with unresectable, pulmonary metastatic osteosarcoma. Patients and Methods. Patients with pulmonary metastatic osteosarcoma unresponsive to chemotherapy were eligible. Patients who received prior tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy were excluded. Pazopanib at 800 mg once daily was administered for 28-day cycles. Tumor responses were evaluated by local radiology assessment 1 month prior to and after initiation of treatment to calculate tumor doubling time and after every even numbered cycle. The primary endpoints were progression-free survival at 4 months, concomitant with a demonstrated 30% increase in tumor doubling time relative to the pretreatment growth rate. Results. 12 patients (7 female) were enrolled. The study was terminated prematurely due to withdrawal of financial support by the sponsor. 8 subjects were eligible for the primary analysis, whereas 4 patients were in a predefined exploratory “slow-growing” cohort. In the “fast-growing” cohort, 3 of the 8 patients (37.5%) eligible for first-stage analysis were deemed “success” by the preplanned criteria, adequate to proceed to second-stage accrual. In addition, 1 of the 4 patients in the “slow-growing” cohort experienced a partial remission. Grade 1-2 diarrhea was the most common adverse event, and grade 3 events were infrequent. Conclusion. This study illustrates a novel method of demonstrating positive drug activity in osteosarcoma by increasing tumor doubling time, and this is further supported by a partial response in a patient with “slow-growing” disease. This trial is registered with NCT01759303.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing, China: a descriptive and modelling study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. e047227
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Cui ◽  
Lin Zhao ◽  
Yuhao Zhou ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Runze Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Wholesale Market ◽  
The People ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Modelling Study

ObjectiveTo evaluate epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak resurged in Beijing and to assess the effects of three non-pharmaceutical interventions.DesignDescriptive and modelling study based on surveillance data of COVID-19 in Beijing.SettingOutbreak in Beijing.ParticipantsThe database included 335 confirmed cases of COVID-19.MethodsTo conduct spatiotemporal analyses of the outbreak, we collected individual records on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 11 June 2020 to 5 July 2020 in Beijing, and visitor flow and products transportation data of Xinfadi Wholesale Market. We also built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model to investigate the effect of interventions deployed in Beijing.ResultsWe found that the staff working in the market (52.2%) and the people around 10 km to this epicentre (72.5%) were most affected, and the population mobility entering-exiting Xinfadi Wholesale Market significantly contributed to the spread of COVID-19 (p=0.021), but goods flow of the market had little impact on the virus spread (p=0.184). The prompt identification of Xinfadi Wholesale Market as the infection source could have avoided a total of 25 708 (95% CI 13 657 to 40 625) cases if unnoticed transmission lasted for a month. Based on the model, we found that active screening on targeted population by nucleic acid testing alone had the most significant effect.ConclusionsThe non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in Beijing, including localised lockdown, close-contact tracing and community-based testing, were proved to be effective enough to contain the outbreak. Beijing has achieved an optimal balance between epidemic containment and economic protection.

scholarly journals The spectrum and prevalence of genetic pathology among children and adolescents of the northern districts of kharkiv region

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Human Genetics ◽  
Pediatric Population ◽  
Genetic Disorders ◽  
Single Gene ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Chromosomal Disorders ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Single Gene Disorders ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

The spectrum and prevalence of genetic pathology among the population of a certain region are determined by the founder effect and microevolution factors and, therefore, are not always comparable in different countries. The study of these indicators is an important trend of modern human genetics. The purpose of the research was to study genetic and epidemiological characteristics of the pediatric population of two northern districts of the Kharkiv region, Ukraine: Bogodukhiv and Vovchansk. Total number of children aged 0–17 was 6896 in Bogodukhiv district, and 7891 in Vovchansk district on 01/01/2016. The medical records of 307 patients were analyzed in healthcare facilities of both districts and the city of Kharkiv. The subject of the study was the cases of single-gene and chromosomal diseases. The burden of genetic disorders among children and adolescents was 0.30% in both districts. The prevalence of single-gene diseases in these districts was 0.24% in Bogodukhiv district and 0.25% in Vovchansk district. There were 9 and 12 single-gene disorders with different modes of inheritance, respectively. Only two of them were common in the districts: congenital hypothyroidism and sensorineural hearing loss. The incidence of the latter is 1:985 in Bogodukhiv district and 1:1578 in Vovchansk district. Chromosomal pathology was detected in 0.06% of the patients in Bogodukhiv district and 0.05% in Vovchansk district. Down syndrome was the only nosological form of chromosomal disorders in both districts. For other five areas of Kharkiv region, the prevalence of genetic pathology ranges from 0.36% in Izyum district to 0.47% in Balakliia and Blyzniuky as have been previously reported. The incidence of single-gene disorders is 0.27% in Izyum and 0.39% in Blyzniuky, while the incidence of chromosomal disorders varies from 0.07% in Zmiiv to 0.13% in Krasnohrad. Thus, the spectrum and prevalence of single-gene and chromosomal pathology in Bogodukhiv and Vovchansk districts correspond to those in other districts of Kharkiv region and most European countries.

Assessment of Maturity over Seasons using Various Indices in Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Sangeetha Vishnuprabha ◽  
PL Viswanathan ◽  
S. Manonmani ◽  
L. Rajendran ◽  
T. Selvakumar
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Correlation Study ◽  
Maturity Index ◽  
Maximum Weight ◽  
Maturity Indices ◽  
Arachis Hypogaea L ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Seed Hull ◽  
Correct Date ◽  
Correct Data

Background: Groundnut is a crop with puzzling nature of maturity. The ability to determine the correct data of harvest in groundnut is strongly affecting factor of the economic return from the crop. Among the different methodologies suggested for calculating the maturity index in groundnut, those which could be used at field level and with ease includes: shell out method, seed hull ratio maturity index, hull scrape method and maturity profile board (MPB) method. The present study was taken up to evaluate the efficiency of these methods in determining the maturity duration.Methods: The maturity indices were calculated in the varieties CO 7, ICGV 07222, VRI 6, VRI 8, GPBD 4, VRI 3, Chico, Gangapuri, ICGV 91114 and ICGV 93468 cultivated during 2018-19, at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. Result: In shell out and hull scrape method maturity indices ranging from 70-80% and in Seed hull ratio maturity index the range 2.9-3.6 revealed the highest number of matured pods with maximum weight. The correlation study results showed highest efficacy of hull scrape method in predicting the correct date of harvest in groundnut. The method establishes that the colour of mesocarp exactly reveals maturity status of groundnut pods. Thus, maturity index in groundnut is more reliable when calculated by hull scrape method. In case when the maturity index is below 70% the pods could be arranged on a maturity profile board (MPB) to determine the days until digging.

scholarly journals Phylogenetic and Demographic Characterization of Directed HIV-1 Transmission Using Deep Sequences from High-Risk and General Population Cohorts/Groups in Uganda

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Bbosa ◽  
Deogratius Ssemwanga ◽  
Alfred Ssekagiri ◽  
Xiaoyue Xi ◽  
Yunia Mayanja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Male Participant ◽  
Population Sampling ◽  
Hiv 1

Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source–recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68–3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.

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