scholarly journals Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saulo B. Bastos ◽  
Daniel O. Cajueiro
Keyword(s):  
Early Period ◽  
Early Evolution ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Social ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of infected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to flatten the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter that comprises the effects of social distancing measures. Short and long term forecasts show that the social distancing policy imposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the COVID-19. However, our results also show that if this policy does not last enough time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future keeping the value of the peak in almost the same value. Furthermore, our long term simulations forecast the optimal date to end the policy. Finally, we show that the proportion of asymptomatic individuals affects the amplitude of the peak of symptomatic infected, suggesting that it is important to test the population.

scholarly journals Perception and Preference for Home-Based Telework in the COVID-19 Era: A Gender-Based Analysis in Hanoi, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3179
Author(s):  
Minh Hieu Nguyen ◽  
Jimmy Armoogum
Keyword(s):  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Home Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based ◽  
Using Data

The rapid and widespread of COVID-19 has caused severe multifaceted effects on society but differently in women and men, thereby preventing the achievement of gender equality (the 5th sustainable development goal of the United Nations). This study, using data of 355 teleworkers collected in Hanoi (Vietnam) during the first social distancing period, aims at exploring how (dis)similar factors associated with the perception and the preference for more home-based telework (HBT) for male teleworkers versus female peers are. The findings show that 56% of female teleworkers compared to 45% of male counterparts had a positive perception of HBT within the social distancing period and 63% of women desired to telework more in comparison with 39% of men post-COVID-19. Work-related factors were associated with the male perception while family-related factors influenced the female perception. There is a difference in the effects of the same variables (age and children in the household) on the perception and the preference for HBT for females. For women, HBT would be considered a solution post-COVID-19 to solve the burden existing pre-COVID-19 and increasing in COVID-19. Considering gender inequality is necessary for the government and authorities to lessen the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the lives of citizens, especially female ones, in developing countries.

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

scholarly journals Smartphone: an asset in medical education and health care in the era of COVID-19 pandemic-our perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 4144
Author(s):  
Manisha Jhirwal ◽  
Charu Sharma ◽  
Shashank Shekhar ◽  
Satya Prakash Meena
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Online Classes ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conventional Classroom ◽  
Good Hygiene

The COVID-19 cases are increasing rapidly and the government across the world has imposed the social distancing along with maintaining good hygiene. The infection with corona virus ranges from mild common cold to acute respiratory illness leading to morbidity and mortality.1 There is no specific treatment for COVID-19 infection except the preventive measures like social distancing, lockdown etc.2 To maintain social distancing so as to curb the spread of disease, schools and colleges were closed long back since March 2020. Online classes took over the conventional classroom teaching.

Accounting for gaming in the time of plague: COVID-19 in Macau

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Noronha ◽  
Jieqi Guan ◽  
Sandy Hou In Sio
Keyword(s):  
Critical Event ◽  
Gaming Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Account ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose While the COVID-19 virus has been spreading worldwide, some studies have related the pandemic with various aspects of accounting and therefore emphasized the importance of accounting research in understanding the impact of COVID-19 on society as a whole. Recent studies have looked into such an impact on various industries such as retail and agriculture. The current study aims at applying a sociological framework, sociology of worth (SOW), to the gaming industry in Macau, the largest operator of state-allowed gambling and entertainment in China, which will allow for its development during the COVID-19 pandemic to be charted. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the theory of SOW as a framework and collects data from various sources, such as the government, gaming operators and the public, to create timelines and SOW frameworks to analyze the impact of the virus on the gaming industry and the society as a whole. Findings Detailed content analysis and the creation of different SOW matrices determined that the notion of a “lonely economy” during a time of a critical event may be ameliorated in the long term through compromises of the different worlds and actors of the SOW. Practical implications Though largely theory-based, this study offers a thorough account of the COVID-19 incident for both the government and the gaming industry to reflect on and to consider new ways to fight against degrowth caused by disasters or crises. Social implications The SOW framework divides society into different worlds of different worths. The current study shows how the worths of the different worlds are congruent during normal periods, and how cracks appear between them when a sudden crisis, such as COVID-19, occurs. The article serves as a social account of how these cracks are formed and how could they be resolved through compromise and reconstruction. Originality/value This study is a first attempt to apply SOW to a controversial industry (gaming) while the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are ongoing. It offers a significant contribution to the social accounting literature through its consideration of the combination of unprecedented factors in a well-timed study that pays close attention to analyses and theoretical elaboration.

Saudi subsidy reforms unlikely to spark major protests

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political impact of subsidy reform. Significance Saudi Arabia introduced its first major cut to energy subsidies in January, leading to a rise in petrol, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity prices. Further cuts will be necessary to avert a fiscal crisis -- but with cheap energy seen as a basic part of the social contract between the government and the population, such measures are expected to have wide-reaching political repercussions. Impacts A decision to reverse subsidy cuts in the face of protest would undercut government credibility and reduce the prospect of further reforms. Yet persisting with subsidy reforms could damage government legitimacy and political capital among the youth and lower classes. Successful reforms will improve the long-term economic outlook, and the succession prospects of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

scholarly journals SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF PERSONNEL IN THE CONDITIONS OF INNOVATIVE ECONOMY AS A FACTOR OF INCREASING THE LEVEL OF LIFE QUALITY

2020 ◽  
pp. 117-122
Author(s):  
N. I. Laas ◽  
I. A. Romanova ◽  
E. V. Gurova
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Social Partnership ◽  
Research Priority ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Innovations ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
The Stability

The importance of the social development of personnel in innovative economy as a decisive factor in the stability of society and improving the quality of life of both workers themselves and the entire population of the country has been defined. It has been shown that social development of staff in the organization contributes to the improvement of social and labor relations through interaction of the parties of social partnership based on the principle of tripartite cooperation and “tripartism”, and also contributes to the full development of the potential of employees and their professional competences. The main directions of social development of personnel included in the social policy of the organization have been determined in the paper. As a result of the research, priority role of cash payments and guarantees in the organization’s social responsibility strategy have been identified. At the same time, the main principle in the development of policy aimed at social development of staff should be targeted consideration of the needs of employees. The principle of targeting to determine the level of staff satisfaction should be the main one for evaluating the effectiveness of work in this direction. In addition, the authors point to the need to use modeling and forecasting the prospects of social innovations in order to achieve sustainable development in the long term.

scholarly journals The Social and Cultural Adaptation of Immigrants Within the Context of Integration into Russian Society

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 128-135
Author(s):  
Asya V. Voropaeva
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Cultural Adaptation ◽  
Host Community ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Financial Status ◽  
The Social ◽  
Integration Of Immigrants ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sociological Studies

The paper covers the issue of the social and cultural adaptation and integration of immigrants into Russian society. It is based on sociological studies that were conducted in Moscow, Penza, and Tambov. The analysis of immigrants’ responses to the study reveals difference between social and cultural adaptation in the metropolis and in cities that are located in other Russian regions. These differences relate to the immigrants’ employment, financial status, attitudes towards the culture and traditions of the host community, as well as their outlook regarding society and the future. We believe that it is important to introduce a long-term targeted program in the areas of education and culture for the purpose of facilitating the further adjustment of the second generation of immigrants. We also emphasize the necessity of involving the government in addressing the issue of integrating immigrants’ cultural values in everyday life into Russian society and culture.

scholarly journals THE “HIDDEN“ ROLE OF THE STATE IN DIFFERENT APPROACHES ON COMPETITIVENESS (THEORETICAL COMPARISON)

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-73
Author(s):  
Hristina Dobreva
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Social Adjustment ◽  
Resource Depletion ◽  
Theoretical Comparison ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Role Of The Government

From the perspective of political science the paper is a comparative overview of some of the main approaches on competitiveness. The focus is on their strengths and weaknesses in the explanation of the role of the government. Yet the paper compares some of the more recent authors as Porter, Reich, Thurow, Ohmae and Strange. The implication is that government intervention is still needed to provide both sustainable competitiveness (Strange) (modesty as opposed to resource depletion) and social adjustment (jobs) to innovation in the long-term dynamic picture (Porter) because government is still at the basis of the welfare pyramid (Thurow). I start with the authors’ assumptions and proceed with their view on the role of the government to conclude that this role is underestimated in the social and overestimated in the business sphere.

scholarly journals ESTRATÉGIAS ECONÔMICAS DO COMÉRCIO DURANTE A PANDEMIA DO ORLHOCORONAVIRINAL – COVID 19

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-52
Author(s):  
Gustavo Araújo Paixão
Keyword(s):  
Social Indicators ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Commercial Vehicles ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Economic Strategies ◽  
Financial Flow ◽  
Qualitative Nature ◽  
The Government

RESUMO A humanidade enfrenta uma nova pandemia causada pelo Coronavírus ,o governo se ver obrigado a tomar diversas medidas protetivas a longo prazo com a finalidade de diminuir o contágio, o regime de quarentena foi aplicado para controlar a população em suas residências. Diante do exposto, o objetivo desse artigo é analisar as estratégias econômicas adotadas pelos empresários brasileiros até a retomada da abertura do comércio e circulação de pessoas pelo país. O presente artigo é uma pesquisa bibliográfica, está organizada em três capítulos e é de natureza qualitativa, baseando-se em documental e coleta de dados secundários. A economia brasileira gradativamente vinha melhorando em seus indicadores econômicos e sociais, porém longe de ter estrutura capaz de suportar um impacto tão grande como é o caso do isolamento social vivenciado do pelos brasileiros. Esse novo cenário econômico mostra o processo sobre as estratégias mais eficientes, as quais atuam envolvendo inovação, desenvolvimento e maior canal de vendas eficientes, isso impulsiona um ciclo que segura os consumidores tenham um fluxo financeiro que garanta continuarem atuando até o período pós-pandemia do Covid-19. Conclui-se que após pandemia é esperado que os veículos de comercialização se consolidem e assim os pequenos empresários possam ter acesso a grandes mercados e a obtenção de novos clientes. O uso das estratégias como e-marketplace e omnichannel vem colaborar com a notoriedade ao conceito de negócio, acelerando o retorno do crescimento econômico brasileiro e todos têm a ganhar com isso. ABSTRACT Humanity faces a new caused by the Coronavirus, the government is forced to take several long-term protective measures in pandemic order to reduce contagion, the quarantine regime was applied to control the population in their homes. Given the above, the objective of this article is to analyze the economic strategies adopted by Brazilian business people until the resumption of the opening of trade and circulation of people across the country. This article is a bibliographic research, organized in three chapters and is of a qualitative nature, based on documentary and secondary data collection. The Brazilian economy was gradually improving in its economic and social indicators, but far from having a structure capable of withstanding such an impact as is the case of the social isolation experienced by Brazilians. This new economic scenario shows the process on the most efficient strategies, which work involving innovation, development and a greater efficient sales channel, this drives a cycle that ensures consumers have a financial flow that ensures they continue to act until the post-pandemic period of the Covid-19. It is concluded that after the pandemic, the commercial vehicles are expected to consolidate and thus small entrepreneurs can have access to large markets and obtain new customers. The use of strategies such as e-marketplace and omnichannel contributes to the notoriety of the business concept, accelerating the return of Brazilian economic growth and everyone has to gain from it.

scholarly journals Nationwide Results of COVID-19 Contact Tracing in South Korea: Individual Participant Data From an Epidemiological Survey (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung Won Lee ◽  
Woon Tak Yuh ◽  
Jee Myung Yang ◽  
Yoon-Sik Cho ◽  
In Kyung Yoo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

BACKGROUND Evidence regarding the effectiveness of contact tracing of COVID-19 and the related social distancing is limited and inconclusive. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in South Korea and evaluate whether a social distancing campaign is effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. METHODS We used contract tracing data to investigate the epidemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in South Korea and evaluate whether a social distancing campaign was effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. We calculated the mortality rate for COVID-19 by infection type (cluster vs noncluster) and tested whether new confirmed COVID-19 trends changed after a social distancing campaign. RESULTS There were 2537 patients with confirmed COVID-19 who completed the epidemiologic survey: 1305 (51.4%) cluster cases and 1232 (48.6%) noncluster cases. The mortality rate was significantly higher in cluster cases linked to medical facilities (11/143, 7.70% vs 5/1232, 0.41%; adjusted percentage difference 7.99%; 95% CI 5.83 to 10.14) and long-term care facilities (19/221, 8.60% vs 5/1232, 0.41%; adjusted percentage difference 7.56%; 95% CI 5.66 to 9.47) than in noncluster cases. The change in trends of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases before and after the social distancing campaign was significantly negative in the entire cohort (adjusted trend difference –2.28; 95% CI –3.88 to –0.68) and the cluster infection group (adjusted trend difference –0.96; 95% CI –1.83 to –0.09). CONCLUSIONS In a nationwide contact tracing study in South Korea, COVID-19 linked to medical and long-term care facilities significantly increased the risk of mortality compared to noncluster COVID-19. A social distancing campaign decreased the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea and differentially affected cluster infections of SARS-CoV-2.

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