scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of people mobility, vaccination rate, and virus variants on the evolution of Covid-19 outbreak in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corrado Spinella ◽  
Antonio Massimiliano Mio
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Coefficient ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Single Person ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Index Effect ◽  
Daily Displacement ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractWe have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. As in our previous work, the model assumes that the time evolution of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the infection, hospitalized and fatalities cases, healed people, and total number of people that has contracted the infection) depends on average parameters, namely people diffusion coefficient, infection cross-section, and population density. The model provides information on the tight relationship between the variation of the reported infection cases and a well-defined observable physical quantity: the average number of people that lie within the daily displacement area of any single person. With respect to our previous paper, we have extended the analyses to several regions in Italy, characterized by different levels of restrictions and we have correlated them to the diffusion coefficient. Furthermore, the model now includes self-consistent evaluation of the reproduction index, effect of immunization due to vaccination, and potential impact of virus variants on the dynamical evolution of the outbreak. The model fits the epidemic data in Italy, and allows us to strictly relate the time evolution of the number of hospitalized cases and fatalities to the change of people mobility, vaccination rate, and appearance of an initial concentration of people positives for new variants of the virus.

scholarly journals Simulating the impact of vaccination rates on the initial stages of a COVID-19 outbreak in New Zealand (Aotearoa) with a stochastic model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leighton M Watson
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Aim: The August 2021 COVID-19 outbreak in Auckland has caused the New Zealand government to transition from an elimination strategy to suppression, which relies heavily on high vaccination rates in the population. As restrictions are eased and as COVID-19 leaks through the Auckland boundary, there is a need to understand how different levels of vaccination will impact the initial stages of COVID-19 outbreaks that are seeded around the country. Method: A stochastic branching process model is used to simulate the initial spread of a COVID-19 outbreak for different vaccination rates. Results: High vaccination rates are effective at minimizing the number of infections and hospitalizations. Increasing vaccination rates from 20% (approximate value at the start of the August 2021 outbreak) to 80% (approximate proposed target) of the total population can reduce the median number of infections that occur within the first four weeks of an outbreak from 1011 to 14 (25th and 75th quantiles of 545-1602 and 2-32 for V=20% and V=80%, respectively). As the vaccination rate increases, the number of breakthrough infections (infections in fully vaccinated individuals) and hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals increases. Unvaccinated individuals, however, are 3.3x more likely to be infected with COVID-19 and 25x more likely to be hospitalized. Conclusion: This work demonstrates the importance of vaccination in protecting individuals from COVID-19, preventing high caseloads, and minimizing the number of hospitalizations and hence limiting the pressure on the healthcare system.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 on Women's Experiences of and Through Football in Buenos Aires

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Román Lozano ◽  
Mónica Santino ◽  
David Wood
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Football Players ◽  
Civil Society Organization ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Made In ◽  
Women's Football

This research report explores the impact of Covid-19 on women's football in Buenos Aires. The suspension of all forms of football in Argentina as part of the country's hard lockdown measures threatens to undo significant gains made in women's football in recent years. By focussing on the experiences of key actors in a feminist Civil Society Organization (CSO) and a newly professional women's team, respectively, we examine what the pandemic has meant for women's football and for women football players at different levels of the game. We also consider the potential impact of the current situation on the future of women's football in Argentina, representative of wider social advances for women in the country.

TEACH-POT: Provide Opportunities in Teaching

2020 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Giulia Ballatore ◽  
Ettore Felisatti ◽  
Laura Montanaro ◽  
Anita Tabacco
Keyword(s):  
Academic Community ◽  
Real Effect ◽  
The Real ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Training Opportunities ◽  
Different Levels

This paper is aimed to describe and critically analyze the so-called "TEACHPOT" experience (POT: Provide Opportunities in Teaching) performed during the last few years at Politecnico di Torino. Due to career criteria, the effort and the time lecturers spend in teaching have currently undergone a significant reduction in quantity. In order to support and meet each lecturers' expectations towards an improvement in their ability to teach, a mix of training opportunities has been provided. This consists of an extremely wide variety of experiences, tools, relationships, from which everyone can feel inspired to increase the effectiveness of their teaching and the participation of their students. The provided activities are designed around three main components: methodological training, teaching technologies, methodological experiences. A discussion on the findings is included and presented basing on the data collected through a survey. The impact of the overall experience can be evaluated on two different levels: the real effect on redesigning lessons, and the discussion on the matter within the entire academic community.

scholarly journals Experimental study of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in porous media under reservoir conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 181902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junchen Lv ◽  
Yuan Chi ◽  
Changzhong Zhao ◽  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Hailin Mu
Keyword(s):  
Porous Media ◽  
Diffusion Coefficient ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Elevated Pressure ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Saturated Porous Media ◽  
Reservoir Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Reliable measurement of the CO 2 diffusion coefficient in consolidated oil-saturated porous media is critical for the design and performance of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. A thorough experimental investigation of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion in n -decane-saturated Berea cores with permeabilities of 50 and 100 mD was conducted in this study at elevated pressure (10–25 MPa) and temperature (333.15–373.15 K), which simulated actual reservoir conditions. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficients in the Berea cores were calculated by a model appropriate for diffusion in porous media based on Fick's Law. The results show that the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient increases as the pressure, temperature and permeability increase. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient first increases slowly at 10 MPa and then grows significantly with increasing pressure. The impact of the pressure decreases at elevated temperature. The effect of permeability remains steady despite the temperature change during the experiments. The effect of gas state and porous media on the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient was further discussed by comparing the results of this study with previous study. Based on the experimental results, an empirical correlation for supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in n -decane-saturated porous media was developed. The experimental results contribute to the study of supercritical CO 2 diffusion in compact porous media.

scholarly journals The impact of IFRS-based accounting standards on earnings management: evidence from Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yosra Makni Fourati ◽  
Rania Chakroun Ghorbel
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Financial Reporting Standards ◽  
Ifrs Adoption ◽  
Earning Quality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

This study aims to examine the consequences of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) convergence in an emerging market. More specifically, we investigate whether the adoption of the new set of accounting standards in Malaysia is associated with lower earnings management. Using a sample of 3,340 firm-year observations across three reporting periods with different levels of IFRS adoption, we provide evidence that IFRS convergence improves earning quality. In particular, we find a significant decrease in the absolute value of discretionary acccruals in the partial IFRS-convergence period (2007-2011), whereas this effect is restrictive after the complete IFRS- implementation.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽  
Charles Whittaker ◽  
Oliver J. Watson ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
If Current ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

scholarly journals Gamification and Hazard Communication in Virtual Reality: A Qualitative Study

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4663
Author(s):  
Janaina Cavalcanti ◽  
Victor Valls ◽  
Manuel Contero ◽  
David Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Training Environment ◽  
Hazard Communication ◽  
Head Mounted Display ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

An effective warning attracts attention, elicits knowledge, and enables compliance behavior. Game mechanics, which are directly linked to human desires, stand out as training, evaluation, and improvement tools. Immersive virtual reality (VR) facilitates training without risk to participants, evaluates the impact of an incorrect action/decision, and creates a smart training environment. The present study analyzes the user experience in a gamified virtual environment of risks using the HTC Vive head-mounted display. The game was developed in the Unreal game engine and consisted of a walk-through maze composed of evident dangers and different signaling variables while user action data were recorded. To demonstrate which aspects provide better interaction, experience, perception and memory, three different warning configurations (dynamic, static and smart) and two different levels of danger (low and high) were presented. To properly assess the impact of the experience, we conducted a survey about personality and knowledge before and after using the game. We proceeded with the qualitative approach by using questions in a bipolar laddering assessment that was compared with the recorded data during the game. The findings indicate that when users are engaged in VR, they tend to test the consequences of their actions rather than maintaining safety. The results also reveal that textual signal variables are not accessed when users are faced with the stress factor of time. Progress is needed in implementing new technologies for warnings and advance notifications to improve the evaluation of human behavior in virtual environments of high-risk surroundings.

scholarly journals Influenza With an Infiltrate: Investigating the New Community-Acquired Pneumonia Guidelines

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s302-s302
Author(s):  
Amanda Barner ◽  
Lou Ann Bruno-Murtha
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Retrospective Chart Review ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Teaching Hospitals ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Radiographic Findings ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Background: The Infectious Diseases Society of America released updated community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) guidelines in October 2019. One of the recommendations, with a low quality of supporting evidence, is the standard administration of antibiotics in adult patients with influenza and radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Procalcitonin (PCT) is not endorsed as a strategy to withhold antibiotic therapy, but it could be used to de-escalate appropriate patients after 48–72 hours. Radiographic findings are not indicative of the etiology of pneumonia. Prescribing antibiotics for all influenza-positive patients with an infiltrate has significant implications for stewardship. Therefore, we reviewed hospitalized, influenza-positive patients at our institution during the 2018–2019 season, and we sought to assess the impact of an abnormal chest x-ray (CXR) and PCT on antibiotic prescribing and outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of all influenza-positive admissions at 2 urban, community-based, teaching hospitals. Demographic data, vaccination status, PCT levels, CXR findings, and treatment regimens were reviewed. The primary outcome was the difference in receipt of antibiotics between patients with a negative (<0.25 ng/mL) and positive PCT. Secondary outcomes included the impact of CXR result on antibiotic prescribing, duration, 30-day readmission, and 90-day mortality. Results: We reviewed the medical records of 117 patients; 43 (36.7%) received antibiotics. The vaccination rate was 36.7%. Also, 11% of patients required intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 84% received antibiotics. Moreover, 109 patients had a CXR: 61 (55.9%) were negative, 29 (26.6%) indeterminate, and 19 (17.4%) positive per radiologist interpretation. Patients with a positive PCT (OR, 12.7; 95% CI, 3.43–60.98; P < .0007) and an abnormal CXR (OR, 7.4; 95% CI, 2.9–20.1; P = .000003) were more likely to receive antibiotics. There was no significant difference in 30-day readmission (11.6% vs 13.5%; OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.21–3.08; P = 1) and 90-day mortality (11.6% vs 5.4%; OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 0.48–12.75; P = .28) between those that received antibiotics and those that did not, respectively. Furthermore, 30 patients (62.5%) with an abnormal CXR received antibiotics and 21 (43.7%) had negative PCT. There was no difference in 30-day readmission or 90-day mortality between those that did and did not receive antibiotics. Conclusions: Utilization of PCT allowed selective prescribing of antibiotics without impacting readmission or mortality. Antibiotics should be initiated for critically ill patients and based on clinical judgement, rather than for all influenza-positive patients with CXR abnormalities.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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