Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin J. Belval ◽  
Yu Wei ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Crystal S. Stonesifer ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Large Fire ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Fire Engine

One crucial component of large fire response in the United States (US) is the sharing of wildland firefighting resources between regions: resources from regions experiencing low fire activity supplement resources in regions experiencing high fire activity. An important step towards improving the efficiency of resource sharing and related policies is to develop a better understanding of current assignment patterns. In this paper we examine the set of interregional wildland fire engine assignments for incidents in California and the Southwest Geographic Coordination Areas, utilising data from the Resource Ordering and Status System. We study a set of multinomial logistic models to examine seasonal and regional patterns affecting the probabilities of interregional resource assignments. This provides a quantitative and objective way to identify the factors strongly influencing interregional assignments. We found that the fire activity in the regions significantly affects response probabilities, as does the season and the national preparedness level. Because our models indicate significant unexplained variation, even when accounting for fire activity, seasonality and resource scarcity, we hypothesise that the existing system could benefit from future research.

scholarly journals The COVID Connection: Pandemic Anxiety, COVID-19 Comprehension, and Digital Confidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110031
Author(s):  
Laura Robinson ◽  
Jeremy Schulz ◽  
Øyvind N. Wiborg ◽  
Elisha Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Digital Inequality ◽  
Partner Status ◽  
General Anxiety ◽  
Nationally Representative

This article presents logistic models examining how pandemic anxiety and COVID-19 comprehension vary with digital confidence among adults in the United States during the first wave of the pandemic. As we demonstrate statistically with a nationally representative data set, the digitally confident have lower probability of experiencing physical manifestations of pandemic anxiety and higher probability of adequately comprehending critical information on COVID-19. The effects of digital confidence on both pandemic anxiety and COVID-19 comprehension persist, even after a broad range of potentially confounding factors are taken into account, including sociodemographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, metropolitan status, and partner status. They also remain discernable after the introduction of general anxiety, as well as income and education. These results offer evidence that the digitally disadvantaged experience greater vulnerability to the secondary effects of the pandemic in the form of increased somatized stress and decreased COVID-19 comprehension. Going forward, future research and policy must make an effort to address digital confidence and digital inequality writ large as crucial factors mediating individuals’ responses to the pandemic and future crises.

scholarly journals Verification of Red Flag Warnings across the Northwestern U.S. as Forecasts of Large Fire Occurrence

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Joshua Clark ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Nicholas J. Nauslar ◽  
Alistair M.S. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Large Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Red Flag

Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) issued by the National Weather Service in the United States (U.S.) are an important early warning system for fire potential based on forecasts of critical fire weather that promote increased fire activity, including the occurrence of large fires. However, verification of RFWs as they relate to fire activity is lacking, thereby limiting means to improve forecasts as well as increase value for end users. We evaluated the efficacy of RFWs as forecasts of large fire occurrence for the Northwestern U.S.—RFWs were shown to have widespread significant skill and yielded an overall 124% relative improvement in forecasting large fire occurrences than a reference forecast. We further demonstrate that the skill of RFWs is significantly higher for lightning-ignited large fires than for human-ignited fires and for forecasts issued during periods of high fuel dryness than those issued in the absence of high fuel dryness. The results of this first verification study of RFWs related to actualized fire activity lay the groundwork for future efforts towards improving the relevance and usefulness of RFWs and other fire early warning systems to better serve the fire community and public.

Conflict, Regions, and Regional Hierarchies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Volgy ◽  
Kelly Marie Gordell ◽  
Paul Bezerra ◽  
Jon Patrick Rhamey, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Causal Mechanism ◽  
Dynamic Identification ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
True Nature ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Baseline Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Despite decades of scholarly attention to conflict and cooperation processes in international politics, rigorous, comparative, large-N analyses of these questions at the region level are difficult to find in the literature. Although this relative absence may stem in part from the difficulties related to the theoretical conceptualization or methodological operationalization of regions, it certainly is not for lack of interesting variation in terms of conflict and cooperation processes across regions. Between this variation and recent contributions toward a dynamic identification of regions, comparative analysis of conflict and cooperation outcomes at the region level are primed for exploration and increasingly salient as recent political elections in the United States (Trump election) and the United Kingdom (Brexit) have demonstrated a willingness on the part of policymakers to scale back efforts toward global interdependence.Turning attention to a region level unit of analysis, however, does not require abandoning decades of scholarship at the state or dyad levels. Indeed, much of this work may be viewed as informing or complementary to comparative regional analyses. In particular, regional propensity for cooperation or conflict is likely to be conditioned by a number of prominent explanations of these phenomena at state and dyad levels, which may usefully be conceived in their regional aggregates as so-called regional fault lines or baseline conditions. These include the presence of major and/or regional powers, interstate rivalries, unresolved territorial claims, civil wars, regime similarity, trade relationships, and common membership in intergovernmental organizations.Of these baseline conditions, the impact of major and regional powers on regional patterns of cooperation and conflict is notable for both its theoretical and practical implications. Power transition theory, hegemonic stability theory, hierarchical theory, and long cycle theory all suggest major—and to a lesser extent regional—powers will seek to establish order within areas under their influence; alternatively, the overwhelming capabilities these states bring to a region arguably act as a deterrent inhibiting conflict. Empirical analysis reveals—irrespective of the causal mechanism at hand—regions characterized by the presence of a major or regional power experience less conflict. Moving forward, future research should work to test the two plausible causal mechanisms for this finding—order building versus deterrence—to determine the true nature of hierarchy’s pacifying influence.

scholarly journals Fire Suppression Resource Scarcity: Current Metrics and Future Performance Indicators

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin J Belval ◽  
Crystal S Stonesifer ◽  
David E Calkin
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Demand Information ◽  
Key Resources

Wildland fire occurrence is highly variable in time and space, and in the United States where total area burned can vary substantially, acquiring resources (firefighters, engines, aircraft, etc.) to respond to fire demand is an important consideration. To determine the composition and scale of this set of suppression resources managers may utilize data produced by past supply and demand information. The key challenge with this approach is that there is currently no clear system of record to track suppression resource supply and demand, and there are potential pitfalls within existing systems that may provide misleading information regarding the true levels of resource scarcity. In this manuscript, we investigate the issue of resource scarcity by examining two key resources that operations personnel have identified as both high value and scarce: type 1 firefighting crews and large airtankers. We examine data from the Resource Ordering and Status System and analyze the level of resource scarcity indicated by these data over the 2014–2018 fire seasons. We focus on data metrics with potential utility for managers responsible for annual national-level decisions regarding crew and airtanker acquisition; some of these metrics are already used to inform such decisions. We examine the limitations of each metric and suggest new metrics that could more accurately reflect true resource use and scarcity. Such metrics could lead to a substantially improved decision-making process.

Refining Evidence-Based Treatments for Late-Life Depression

GeroPsych ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Grace C. Niu ◽  
Patricia A. Arean
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Mental Illness ◽  
Brain Plasticity ◽  
Late Life ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Late Life Depression ◽  
Evidence Based Treatments

The recent increase in the aging population, specifically in the United States, has raised concerns regarding treatment for mental illness among older adults. Late-life depression (LLD) is a complex condition that has become widespread among the aging population. Despite the availability of behavioral interventions and psychotherapies, few depressed older adults actually receive treatment. In this paper we review the research on refining treatments for LLD. We first identify evidence-based treatments (EBTs) for LLD and the problems associated with efficacy and dissemination, then review approaches to conceptualizing mental illness, specifically concepts related to brain plasticity and the Research Domain Criteria (RDoc). Finally, we introduce ENGAGE as a streamlined treatment for LLD and discuss implications for future research.

A Silenced Population

Crisis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 433-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Gryglewicz ◽  
Melanie Bozzay ◽  
Brittany Arthur-Jordon ◽  
Gabriela D. Romero ◽  
Melissa Witmeier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Depressive Symptomatology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
At Risk Youth ◽  
Peer Relationship ◽  
Student Records ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Method Student

Abstract. Background: Given challenges that exceed the normal developmental requirements of adolescence, deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) youth are believed to be at elevated risk for engaging in suicide-related behavior (SRB). Unfortunately, little is known about the mechanisms that put these youth potentially at risk. Aims: To determine whether peer relationship difficulties are related to increased risk of SRB in DHH youth. Method: Student records (n = 74) were retrieved from an accredited educational center for deaf and blind students in the United States. Results: Peer relationship difficulties were found to be significantly associated with engagement in SRB but not when accounting for depressive symptomatology. Limitations: The restricted sample limits generalizability. Conclusions regarding risk causation cannot be made due to the cross-sectional nature of the study. Conclusion: These results suggest the need for future research that examines the mechanisms of the relationship between peer relationship difficulties, depression, and suicide risk in DHH youth and potential preventive interventions to ameliorate the risks for these at-risk youth.

A Note On Consumption Patterns in the Rural Areas of East Pakistan

1963 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-413
Author(s):  
Mohammad Irshad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Effective Utilization ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Limited Applicability ◽  
Made In

The main purpose of this paper is to present estimates of income elasticities for various commodity groups in East Pakistan. To date no such studies have been conducted in that province; and estimates made in other areas of the subcontinent have only limited applicability. Analysis of consumption patterns is essential for development planning because priorities and investment targets have to be based on demand forecasts for different commodities. Forecasting demand requires, among other variables, reliable estimates of income elasticities. In addition, knowledge about elasticities can be useful in deciding taxation policies and other controls over consumption. Further, in countries like Pakistan where large quantities of surplus foods are imported under the United States PL 480 programme, knowledge of income elasticities and regional patterns of consumption is important to permit effective utilization of these imports for economic development.

Fragments of the American Dream: Immigration, Race, and Medical Care in the Segregated South, 1929

Public Voices ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
John R Phillips
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
American Dream ◽  
Black Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Single Woman ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Legal Doctrine ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sunflower County

The cover photograph for this issue of Public Voices was taken sometime in the summer of 1929 (probably June) somewhere in Sunflower County, Mississippi. Very probably the photo was taken in Indianola but, perhaps, it was Ruleville. It is one of three such photos, one of which does have the annotation on the reverse “Ruleville Midwives Club 1929.” The young woman wearing a tie in this and in one of the other photos was Ann Reid Brown, R.N., then a single woman having only arrived in the United States from Scotland a few years before, in 1923. Full disclosure: This commentary on the photo combines professional research interests in public administration and public policy with personal interests—family interests—for that young nurse later married and became the author’s mother. From the scholarly perspective, such photographs have been seen as “instrumental in establishing midwives’ credentials and cultural identity at a key transitional moment in the history of the midwife and of public health” (Keith, Brennan, & Reynolds 2012). There is also deep irony if we see these photographs as being a fragment of the American dream, of a recent immigrant’s hope for and success at achieving that dream; but that fragment of the vision is understood quite differently when we see that she began a hopeful career working with a Black population forcibly segregated by law under the incongruously named “separate but equal” legal doctrine. That doctrine, derived from the United States Supreme Court’s 1896 decision, Plessy v. Ferguson, would remain the foundation for legally enforced segregation throughout the South for another quarter century. The options open to the young, white, immigrant nurse were almost entirely closed off for the population with which she then worked. The remaining parts of this overview are meant to provide the following: (1) some biographical information on the nurse; (2) a description, in so far as we know it, of why she was in Mississippi; and (3) some indication of areas for future research on this and related topics.

Questions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James L. Gibson ◽  
Michael J. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The U.S

We have investigated the differences in support for the U.S. Supreme Court among black, Hispanic, and white Americans, catalogued the variation in African Americans’ group attachments and experiences with legal authorities, and examined how those latter two factors shape individuals’ support for the U.S. Supreme Court, that Court’s decisions, and for their local legal system. We take this opportunity to weave our findings together, taking stock of what we have learned from our analyses and what seem like fruitful paths for future research. In the process, we revisit Positivity Theory. We present a modified version of the theory that we hope will guide future inquiry on public support for courts, both in the United States and abroad.

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