Trade Preferences and Politics
Chapter 3 introduces a novel theoretical model and empirical test for explaining variations in individuals’ expressed support for trade protection. Drawing on original survey data from 2006 and 2010, the chapter describes the state of Americans beliefs about the costs and benefits of trade for themselves, their community, and the country. To understand the sources of variation in these beliefs, the chapter offers a description of information environment on trade policy: how information sources have changed in content and influence over time; how information influence may vary across different groups of individuals; and how individuals may hold countervailing beliefs about the effect of trade on their own and others’ economic outcomes. The chapter offers a new composite individual-sociotropic model of trade opinion that integrates potential variation in beliefs and incorporates the potential for ambivalence as well as strong support or opposition to trade protection. The chapter concludes by testing the implications of the model on the relationship between individuals’ beliefs about trade’s effects on themselves and others and their stated preference for trade protection.