404Impact of cardiovascular risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease: Results from MORGAM and BiomarCaRE consortia
Abstract Background Knowledge about the impact of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) onset is essential to improve CVD prevention. Purpose We estimated population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of body-mass-index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, blood lipids (non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; non-HDL-C) and daily smoking for CVD. Methods Harmonized data from MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) and Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomaCaRE) consortia were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs; 95% CI) and PAFs for incident CVD (myocardial infarction or coronary death, unstable angina, cardiac revascularization, ischemic stroke). PAFs for single risk factors or any combination of them were estimated using methods by Laaksonen 2011. Results We included 150,190 participants (77,801 men and 72,389 women) without CVD at baseline. Strongest associations were seen for SBP ≥160 mmHg (HR 1.79, 1.67–1.92 men; HR 1.93, 1.75–2.14 women), diabetes (HR 2.02, 1.86–2.20 men; HR 2.29, 2.06–2.55 women), non-HDL-C ≥220 mg/dL (HR 3.11, 2.49–3.88 men; HR 2.27, 1.68–3.05 women), daily smoking (HR 1.82, 1.73–1,90 men; HR 2.16, 2.0–2.33 women). Table 1 provides PAFs for incident CVD. Overall PAFs for men and women were 73.7% (67.7–79.1) and 73.3% (64.9–80.9). Table 1. PAFs (%) for 5-year incident CVD Risk factor/category PAFs (95% CI), men PAFs (95% CI), women Underweight 0.1 (−0.1, 0.3) 0.2 (−0.1, 0.6) Pre-obesity 6.6 (4.3, 8.9) 4.3 (1.5, 6.9) Obesity 3.9 (2.7, 5.3) 8.0 (5.3, 10.5) SBP 130 to <140 mmHg 2.8 (1.7, 4.0) 2.7 (1.3, 4.0) SBP 140 to <160 mmHg 9.7 (8.1, 11.3) 9.3 (6.7, 11.6) SBP ≥160 mmHg 11.3 (9.7, 12.8) 18.9 (16.2, 21.8) Diabetes 5.2 (4.5, 6.2) 7.8 (6.5, 9.4) non-HDL-C 100 to <145 mg/dL 4.3 (1.8, 6.4) 3.3 (0.5, 6.5) non-HDL-C 145 to <185 mg/dL 13.9 (9.8, 17.5) 11.3 (6.0, 16.2) non-HDL-C 185 to <220 mg/dL 15.8 (12.8, 18.4) 12.8 (8.8, 17.0) non-HDL-C ≥220 mg/dL 16.7 (14.6, 18.5) 17.0 (12.5, 21.1) Daily smoking 16.5 (15.0, 18.3) 12.3 (10.7, 13.7) The N CVD events/N used was 8,302/77,801 for men and 4,071/72,389 for women. Conclusion Uncontrolled risk factors, especially non-HDL-C and SBP in the highest category, daily smoking and diabetes had the highest impact for incident CVD. All risk factors combined accounted for a PAF of 73%. Targeting risk factors would lead to a substantial reduction of CVD onset. Acknowledgement/Funding BiomarCaRE: EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), No. HEALTH-F2-2011-278913. MORGAM: EU FP 7 CHANCES (HEALTH-F3-2010-242244).