Assessing Tree Mortality Probability in Harvested Hardwood Stands Using Long-Term Forest Inventory Data

Abstract Partial harvesting (here defined as removal of ≤50% of preharvest volume) is the predominant silvicultural scheme applied to hardwood forest types in the eastern United States. Future stand conditions are largely reliant on trees retained after harvest, so their mortality because of harvesting activity damage should be minimized or taken into account when planning. We quantify partially harvested stand characteristics and postharvest mortality using data from 32,057 forested conditions, 366,953 trees with a diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥ 2.5 cm, of which 4,469 trees were cut and used in partially harvested stands. On average 23.3% of stand volume was selectively harvested with an additional 2.5% of volume lost to harvesting-caused mortality. Of the trees killed by logging activity in harvested stands, 90.7% were under 28 cm dbh. The likelihood of mortality was 1.31 times higher (95% CI of 1.20 to 1.44) for trees retained in stands that had undergone partial harvesting than for trees growing in unharvested stands. Commercial species had lower odds of mortality (0.88 times) in harvested stands than noncommercial species. Residual trees in harvested stands on private lands had a higher probability of mortality (1.23 times) than those on harvested public lands.

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Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra-Nevada of California

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf9930139 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 139 ◽

Cited By ~ 68

Author(s):

JC Regelbrugge ◽

SG Conard

Keyword(s):

Sierra Nevada ◽

Pinus Ponderosa ◽

Tree Mortality ◽

Fire Severity ◽

Tree Height ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Stem Bark ◽

Mortality Probability ◽

Using Data ◽

Bark Char

We modeled tree mortality occurring two years following wildfire in Pinus ponderosa forests using data from 1275 trees in 25 stands burned during the 1987 Stanislaus Complex fires. We used logistic regression analysis to develop models relating the probability of wildfire-induced mortality with tree size and fire severity for Pinus ponderosa, Calocedrus decurrens, Quercus chrysolepis, and Q. kelloggii. One set of models predicts mortality probability as a function of DBH and height of stem-bark char, a second set of models uses relative char height (height of stem-bark char as a proportion of tree height) as the predictor. Probability of mortality increased with increasing height of stem-bark char and decreased with increasing tree DBH and height. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicated that both sets of models perform well for all species, with 83 to 96 percent concordance between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. The models can be used to predict die probability of post-wildfire mortality of four tree species common in Pinus ponderosa forests in the central Sierra Nevada of California.

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Addressing the Early-Successional Habitat Needs of At-Risk Species on Privately Owned Lands in the Eastern United States

Land ◽

10.3390/land10111116 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1116

Author(s):

John A. Litvaitis ◽

Jeffery L. Larkin ◽

Darin J. McNeil ◽

Don Keirstead ◽

Bridgett Costanzo

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Ecosystem Approach ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Private Lands ◽

New Information ◽

Resources Conservation ◽

Specific Species ◽

Privately Owned ◽

The U.S

Public lands alone are insufficient to address the needs of most at-risk wildlife species in the U.S. As a result, a variety of voluntary incentive programs have emerged to recruit private landowners into conservation efforts that restore and manage the habitats needed by specific species. We review the role of one such effort, Working Lands for Wildlife (WLFW), initiated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service in partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Using two at-risk species in the eastern U.S. (where private lands dominate), we show the substantial potential that WLFW has for restoring and maintaining needed habitats. Monitoring how effective these efforts are on populations of the target species has been challenging, and both monitoring and implementation are being modified in response to new information. Identifying landowner motivations is essential for developing long-term relationships and conservation success. As WLFW projects develop, they are moving toward a more holistic ecosystem approach, within which the conservation goals of at-risk species are embedded.

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Clinical impact of myositis-specific autoantibodies on long-term prognosis of juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies: multicentre study

Rheumatology ◽

10.1093/rheumatology/keab108 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yuichi Yamasaki ◽

Norimoto Kobayashi ◽

Shinji Akioka ◽

Kazuko Yamazaki ◽

Shunichiro Takezaki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Matrix Protein ◽

Multiple Drug ◽

Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathies ◽

Inflammatory Myopathies ◽

Gamma Subunits ◽

Specific Autoantibody ◽

Long Term Prognosis ◽

Using Data ◽

Drug Free

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (JIIM) in Japan for each myositis-specific autoantibody (MSA) profile. Methods A multicentre, retrospective study was conducted using data of patients with JIIM at nine paediatric rheumatology centres in Japan. Patients with MSA profiles, determined by immunoprecipitation using stored serum from the active stage, were included. Results MSA were detected in 85 of 96 cases eligible for the analyses. Over 90% of the patients in this study had one of the following three MSA types: anti-melanoma differentiation-associated protein 5 (MDA5) (n = 31), anti-transcriptional intermediary factor 1 alpha and/or gamma subunits (TIF1γ) (n = 25) and anti-nuclear matrix protein 2 (NXP2) (n = 25) antibodies. Gottron papules and periungual capillary abnormalities were the most common signs of every MSA group in the initial phase. The presence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) was the highest risk factor for patients with anti-MDA5 antibodies. Most patients were administered multiple drug therapies: glucocorticoids and MTX were administered to patients with anti-TIF1γ or anti-NXP2 antibodies. Half of the patients with anti-MDA5 antibodies received more than three medications including i.v. CYC, especially patients with ILD. Patients with anti-MDA5 antibodies were more likely to achieve drug-free remission (29 vs 21%) and less likely to relapse (26 vs 44%) than others. Conclusion Anti-MDA5 antibodies are the most common MSA type in Japan, and patients with this antibody are characterized by ILD at onset, multiple medications including i.v. CYC, drug-free remission, and a lower frequency of relapse. New therapeutic strategies are required for other MSA types.

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Increase associated risk of gynaecological cancer due to long-term exposure to high concentration of atmospheric SO2 industrial pollutant

Indoor and Built Environment ◽

10.1177/1420326x211003655 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1420326X2110036

Author(s):

Qian Xu ◽

Chan Lu ◽

Rachael Gakii Murithi ◽

Lanqin Cao

Keyword(s):

Time Windows ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Gynaecological Cancer ◽

High Concentration ◽

The Past ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Using Data ◽

Air Quality Monitoring Stations ◽

Control Study

A cohort case–control study was conducted in XiangYa Hospital, Changsha, China, which involved 305 patients and 399 healthy women, from June 2010 to December 2018, to evaluate the association between Chinese women’s short- and long-term exposure to industrial air pollutant, SO2 and gynaecological cancer (GC). We obtained personal and family information from the XiangYa Hospital electronic computer medical records. Using data obtained from the air quality monitoring stations in Changsha, we estimated each woman’s exposure to the industrial air pollutant, sulphur dioxide (SO2), for different time windows, including the past 1, 5, 10 and 15 years before diagnosis of the disease. A multiple logistic regression model was used to assess the association between GC and SO2 exposure. GC was significantly associated with long-term SO2 exposure, with adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.56 (1.10–2.21) and 1.81 (1.07–3.06) for a per interquartile range increase in the past 10 and 15 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that different groups reacted in different ways to long-term SO2 exposure. We concluded that long-term exposure to high concentration of industrial pollutant, SO2 is associated with the development of GC. This finding has implications for the prevention and reduction of GC.

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Assisting scalable diagnosis automatically via CT images in the combat against COVID-19

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-83424-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Bohan Liu ◽

Pan Liu ◽

Lutao Dai ◽

Yanlin Yang ◽

Peng Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Independent Set ◽

Reference Method ◽

Ct Images ◽

Loss Of Life ◽

Case Identification ◽

Reverse Transcription Pcr ◽

Using Data

AbstractThe pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is causing enormous loss of life globally. Prompt case identification is critical. The reference method is the real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assay, whose limitations may curb its prompt large-scale application. COVID-19 manifests with chest computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, some even before the onset of symptoms. We tested the hypothesis that the application of deep learning (DL) to 3D CT images could help identify COVID-19 infections. Using data from 920 COVID-19 and 1,073 non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients, we developed a modified DenseNet-264 model, COVIDNet, to classify CT images to either class. When tested on an independent set of 233 COVID-19 and 289 non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients, COVIDNet achieved an accuracy rate of 94.3% and an area under the curve of 0.98. As of March 23, 2020, the COVIDNet system had been used 11,966 times with a sensitivity of 91.12% and a specificity of 88.50% in six hospitals with PCR confirmation. Application of DL to CT images may improve both efficiency and capacity of case detection and long-term surveillance.

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Long-term effectiveness in patients previously treated with cladribine tablets: a real-world analysis of the Italian multiple sclerosis registry (CLARINET-MS)

Therapeutic Advances in Neurological Disorders ◽

10.1177/1756286420922685 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 ◽

pp. 175628642092268 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Francesco Patti ◽

Andrea Visconti ◽

Antonio Capacchione ◽

Sanjeev Roy ◽

Maria Trojano ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Multiple Sclerosis ◽

Real World ◽

Event Analysis ◽

Treatment Change ◽

Real World Data ◽

Indirect Measure ◽

Disease Modifying Drugs ◽

Disease Modifying ◽

Using Data

Background: The CLARINET-MS study assessed the long-term effectiveness of cladribine tablets by following patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in Italy, using data from the Italian MS Registry. Methods: Real-world data (RWD) from Italian MS patients who participated in cladribine tablets randomised clinical trials (RCTs; CLARITY, CLARITY Extension, ONWARD or ORACLE-MS) across 17 MS centres were obtained from the Italian MS Registry. RWD were collected during a set observation period, spanning from the last dose of cladribine tablets during the RCT (defined as baseline) to the last visit date in the registry, treatment switch to other disease-modifying drugs, date of last Expanded Disability Status Scale recording or date of the last relapse (whichever occurred last). Time-to-event analysis was completed using the Kaplan–Meier (KM) method. Median duration and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated from the model. Results: Time span under observation in the Italian MS Registry was 1–137 (median 80.3) months. In the total Italian patient population ( n = 80), the KM estimates for the probability of being relapse-free at 12, 36 and 60 months after the last dose of cladribine tablets were 84.8%, 66.2% and 57.2%, respectively. The corresponding probability of being progression-free at 60 months after the last dose was 63.7%. The KM estimate for the probability of not initiating another disease-modifying treatment at 60 months after the last dose of cladribine tablets was 28.1%, and the median time-to-treatment change was 32.1 (95% CI 15.5–39.5) months. Conclusion: CLARINET-MS provides an indirect measure of the long-term effectiveness of cladribine tablets. Over half of MS patients analysed did not relapse or experience disability progression during 60 months of follow-up from the last dose, suggesting that cladribine tablets remain effective in years 3 and 4 after short courses at the beginning of years 1 and 2.

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Long-term effects of alternative partial harvesting methods on the woody regeneration layer in high-elevation Quercus rubra forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

Forest Ecology and Management ◽

10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118869 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 482 ◽

pp. 118869

Author(s):

Tara L. Keyser ◽

David L. Loftis

Keyword(s):

Quercus Rubra ◽

Appalachian Mountains ◽

High Elevation ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Southern Appalachian Mountains ◽

Southern Appalachian ◽

Partial Harvesting

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First-Line Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab versus Sorafenib in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Cancers ◽

10.3390/cancers13050931 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 931

Author(s):

Chi-Leung Chiang ◽

Sik-Kwan Chan ◽

Shing-Fung Lee ◽

Horace Cheuk-Wai Choi

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Lifetime Cost ◽

Cost Effective ◽

First Line ◽

First Line Therapy ◽

Payer Perspective ◽

Life Years ◽

Using Data

Background: The IMbrave 150 trial revealed that atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo–bev) improves survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1 year survival rate: 67.2% vs. 54.6%). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of atezo–bev vs. sorafenib as first-line therapy in patients with unresectable HCC from the US payer perspective. Methods: Using data from the IMbrave 150, we developed a Markov model to compare the lifetime cost and efficacy of atezo–bev as first-line systemic therapy in HCC with those of sorafenib. The main outcomes were life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results: Atezo–bev demonstrated a gain of 0.44 QALYs, with an additional cost of USD 79,074. The ICER of atezo–bev was USD 179,729 per QALY when compared with sorafenib. The model was most sensitive to the overall survival hazard ratio and body weight. If we assumed that all patients at the end of the IMbrave 150 trial were cured of HCC, atezo–bev was cost-effective (ICER USD 53,854 per QALY). However, if all patients followed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, the ICER of atezo–bev was USD 385,857 per QALY. Reducing the price of atezo–bev by 20% and 29% would satisfy the USD 150,000/QALY and 100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Moreover, capping the duration of therapy to ≤12 months or reducing the dosage of bev to ≤10 mg/kg would render atezo–bev cost-effective. Conclusions: The long-term effectiveness of atezo–bev is a critical but uncertain determinant of its cost-effectiveness. Price reduction would favorably influence cost-effectiveness, even if long-term clinical outcomes were modest. Further studies to optimize the duration and dosage of therapy are warranted.

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Long-Term Development of Urban Agriculture: Resilience and Sustainability of Farmers Facing the Covid-19 Pandemic in Japan

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13084316 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 4316

Author(s):

Shingo Yoshida ◽

Hironori Yagi

Keyword(s):

Urban Agriculture ◽

Food Systems ◽

Direct Marketing ◽

Farming System ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Short Supply ◽

Using Data ◽

Urban People

The coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has forced global food systems to face unprecedented uncertain shocks even in terms of human health. Urban agriculture is expected to be more resilient because of its short supply chain for urban people and diversified farming activities. However, the short-and long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on urban farms remain unclear. This study aims to reveal the conditions for farm resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and the relationship between short-term farm resilience and long-term farm development using data from a survey of 74 farms located in Tokyo. The results are as follows. First, more than half of the sample farms increased their farm sales during this period. This resilience can be called the “persistence” approach. Second, short-term farm resilience and other sustainable farm activities contributed to improving farmers’ intentions for long-term farm development and farmland preservation. Third, the most important resilience attributes were the direct marketing, entrepreneurship, and social networks of farmers. We discussed the necessity of building farmers’ transformative capabilities for a more resilient urban farming system. These results imply that support to enhance the short-term resilience of urban farms is worth more than the short-term profit of the farms.

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