The Correlates of Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Kroenig
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Support ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
International Crises ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Large N ◽  
Central Argument ◽  
War Outcomes ◽  
Nuclear Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Does the nuclear balance of power matter for nuclear coercion? To answer this question, this chapter conducts a large-N statistical analysis, examining empirical evidence from high-stakes crises between nuclear-armed states. Drawing on a quantitative analysis of a data set of fifty-two nuclear crisis dyads that includes information on nuclear arsenal size and delivery vehicles, the chapter examines the impact of nuclear superiority on nuclear crisis outcomes. It finds a powerful relationship between nuclear superiority and victory in nuclear crises. Specifically, nuclear superior states are over ten times more likely than nuclear inferior states to achieve their basic goals in international crises. In sum, this chapter provides strong empirical support for the central argument of this book. Nuclear superiority matters not just for nuclear war outcomes but also in international crises between nuclear-armed adversaries.

Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict

2002 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Saideman ◽  
David J. Lanoue ◽  
Michael Campenni ◽  
Samuel Stanton
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Conflict ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Security Dilemma ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Large N ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Minorities At Risk

Although there has been much debate about whether democratization causes ethnic conflict, and many comparativists have argued about which kinds of political institutions are best for managing communal strife, little large- N work has addressed these issues. The authors apply a theory of ethnic conflict—the ethnic security dilemma—to derive predictions about the impact of democratization and political institutions on ethnic unrest. They then test these predictions by performing a series of pooled time-series analyses covering all ethnic groups in the Minorities at Risk data set from 1985 to 1998. The authors find that democratization, federalism, and presidentialism may not be as problematic as some argue and that proportional representation tends to reduce severe ethnic violence. They conclude by suggesting some directions for future research.

scholarly journals Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1349
Author(s):  
Yong Su ◽  
Jacob Cherian ◽  
Muhammad Safdar Sial ◽  
Alina Badulescu ◽  
Phung Anh Thu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Development And Growth ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of the current study is to investigate if tourism affects economic growth of China. The data set has been acquired from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, and the time span of the data set takes into account a 20-year time period, from 2000 to 2019. To determine the strength of the above-mentioned relationship previous models that have been used for this research are mainly VAR (vector auto-regression) and VECM (vector error correction) models. The VAR and VECM models have been conducted together with the Granger causality test. The internal revenue generated from tourism-related activities is taken as being the main indicator for the tourism industry, while economic growth is determined by GDP (gross domestic product). We support the above-mentioned notion, as we found that a strong relationship exists between the development of the tourism industry and economic growth. Moreover, our analysis also indicates that this industry has a major impact on long-term economic growth in the region as well. This study thus provides further support to the existing literature on the topic of tourism and the impact that tourism-related activities have upon economic development and growth. The existence and the impact of tourism-related activities upon long-term economic growth were confirmed by the results of the VAR models. At the same time, the unidirectional results of VECM models have confirmed the existence of economic growth in the short term. In our case, the cardinal relationship between the development of the tourism industry and the economic growth in the Beijing region of China have managed to provide strong empirical support to the earlier stated notions and to the literature alike.

scholarly journals Bought, Sold and Bought Again: The Impact of Complex Value Chains on Export Elasticities

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1309) ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Francois de Soyres ◽  
◽  
Erik Frohm ◽  
Vanessa Gunnella ◽  
Elena Pavlova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Impact

Global value chain (GVC) participation affects the relationship between trade volumes and exchange rate movements. Guided by a simple theory, we show that exports react to the exchange rate between the country producing value added contained in exports and the country of final absorption for this value added. Three predictions follow: (i) a higher share of foreign value added in exports reduce the responsiveness of export volumes to exchange rate changes, (ii) a greater share of exports that returns as imports also reduce the responsiveness of export volumes and (iii) a higher share of inputs that are further reexported increase the responsiveness of exports to the trading partner's nominal effective exchange rate. Using a large origin-sector-destination level panel data set covering the period 1995-2009 and around 85% of world GDP, we find strong empirical support for these predictions. We further show that some sectors in some countries can experience a decline in gross exports when their currency depreciates.

Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuan-Ying Lee ◽  
Chung-Yi Li ◽  
Kun-Chia Chang ◽  
Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽  
Ying-Yeh Chen
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Birth Registry ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parental Suicide ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-­based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

State Medical Boards' Perceptions of a Minimum Data Set and Current Practices for Collecting Physician Information

2013 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Young ◽  
Philip Davignon ◽  
Margaret B. Hansen ◽  
Mark A. Eggen
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Minimum Data Set ◽  
Direct Patient Care ◽  
Physician Workforce ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Minimum Data ◽  
State Medical Boards ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Practices

ABSTRACT Recent media coverage has focused on the supply of physicians in the United States, especially with the impact of a growing physician shortage and the Affordable Care Act. State medical boards and other entities maintain data on physician licensure and discipline, as well as some biographical data describing their physician populations. However, there are gaps of workforce information in these sources. The Federation of State Medical Boards' (FSMB) Census of Licensed Physicians and the AMA Masterfile, for example, offer valuable information, but they provide a limited picture of the physician workforce. Furthermore, they are unable to shed light on some of the nuances in physician availability, such as how much time physicians spend providing direct patient care. In response to these gaps, policymakers and regulators have in recent years discussed the creation of a physician minimum data set (MDS), which would be gathered periodically and would provide key physician workforce information. While proponents of an MDS believe it would provide benefits to a variety of stakeholders, an effort has not been attempted to determine whether state medical boards think it is important to collect physician workforce data and if they currently collect workforce information from licensed physicians. To learn more, the FSMB sent surveys to the executive directors at state medical boards to determine their perceptions of collecting workforce data and current practices regarding their collection of such data. The purpose of this article is to convey results from this effort. Survey findings indicate that the vast majority of boards view physician workforce information as valuable in the determination of health care needs within their state, and that various boards are already collecting some data elements. Analysis of the data confirms the potential benefits of a physician minimum data set (MDS) and why state medical boards are in a unique position to collect MDS information from physicians.

Designing preclinical perceptibility measures to evaluate topical vaginal gel formulations relating user sensory perceptions and experiences to formulation properties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lungwani Muungo
Keyword(s):  
User Experience ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Biomedical Prevention ◽  
Product Effectiveness ◽  
Willingness To Use ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gel Formulations

The effectiveness of any biomedical prevention technology relies on both biological efficacy and behavioraladherence. Microbicide trials have been hampered by low adherence, limiting the ability to draw meaningfulconclusions about product effectiveness. Central to this problem may be an inadequate conceptualization of howproduct properties themselves impact user experience and adherence. Our goal is to expand the current microbicidedevelopment framework to include product ‘‘perceptibility,’’ the objective measurement of user sensoryperceptions (i.e., sensations) and experiences of formulation performance during use. For vaginal gels, a setof biophysical properties, including rheological properties and measures of spreading and retention, may criticallyimpact user experiences. Project LINK sought to characterize the user experience in this regard, and tovalidate measures of user sensory perceptions and experiences (USPEs) using four prototype topical vaginal gelformulations designed for pericoital use. Perceptibility scales captured a range of USPEs during the productapplication process (five scales), ambulation after product insertion (six scales), and during sexual activity (eightscales). Comparative statistical analyses provided empirical support for hypothesized relationships between gelproperties, spreading performance, and the user experience. Project LINK provides preliminary evidence for theutility of evaluating USPEs, introducing a paradigm shift in the field of microbicide formulation design. Wepropose that these user sensory perceptions and experiences initiate cognitive processes in users resulting inproduct choice and willingness-to-use. By understanding the impact of USPEs on that process, formulationdevelopment can optimize both drug delivery and adherence.

The Impact of Green Labels on U.S. Hotel Net Operating Income: Operating Statements Analyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 156-173
Author(s):  
Spenser Robinson ◽  
A.J. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Design ◽  
Green Buildings ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Energy Star ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Industry Professionals

This paper shows Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certified hospitality properties exhibit increased expenses and earn lower net operating income (NOI) than non-certified buildings. ENERGY STAR certified properties demonstrate lower overall expenses than non-certified buildings with statistically neutral NOI effects. Using a custom sample of all green buildings and their competitive data set as of 2013 provided by Smith Travel Research (STR), the paper documents potential reasons for this result including increased operational expenses, potential confusion with certified and registered LEED projects in the data, and qualitative input. The qualitative input comes from a small sample survey of five industry professionals. The paper provides one of the only analyses on operating efficiencies with LEED and ENERGY STAR hospitality properties.

Does Tax Increment Financing Pass the “But-for” Test in Missouri?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-202
Author(s):  
Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi ◽  
T. William Lester
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kansas City ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Increment Financing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The use of tax increment financing (TIF) remains a popular, yet highly controversial, tool among policy makers in their efforts to promote economic development. This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Missouri’s TIF program, specifically in Kansas City and St. Louis, in creating economic opportunities. We build a time-series data set starting 1990 through 2012 of detailed employment levels, establishment counts, and sales at the census block-group level to run a set of difference-in-differences with matching estimates for the impact of TIF at the local level. Although we analyze the impact of TIF on a wide set of indicators and across various industry sectors, we find no conclusive evidence that the TIF program in either city has a causal impact on key economic development indicators.

Evaluation of the Aging Behavior of High Density Polyethylene in Thermal Oxidative Environment by Principal Component Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 727 ◽  
pp. 447-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Dai ◽  
Hua Yan ◽  
Jian Jian Yang ◽  
Jun Jun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Impact Strength ◽  
High Density Polyethylene ◽  
Tensile Modulus ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
High Density ◽  
Aging Behavior ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

To evaluate the aging behavior of high density polyethylene (HDPE) under an artificial accelerated environment, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to establish a non-dimensional expression Z from a data set of multiple degradation parameters of HDPE. In this study, HDPE samples were exposed to the accelerated thermal oxidative environment for different time intervals up to 64 days. The results showed that the combined evaluating parameter Z was characterized by three-stage changes. The combined evaluating parameter Z increased quickly in the first 16 days of exposure and then leveled off. After 40 days, it began to increase again. Among the 10 degradation parameters, branching degree, carbonyl index and hydroxyl index are strongly associated. The tensile modulus is highly correlated with the impact strength. The tensile strength, tensile modulus and impact strength are negatively correlated with the crystallinity.

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