scholarly journals P152 Skin score trajectory associates with survival and pulmonary outcome in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis

Rheumatology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana I Nihtyanova ◽  
Emma C Derrett-Smith ◽  
Carmen Fonseca ◽  
Voon H Ong ◽  
Christopher P Denton

Abstract Background Skin thickness improves over time in most diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) patients and the use of group level skin score (mRss) as an endpoint is clinical trials can be challenging. We explore the association between individual mRss trajectories and outcome in early dcSSc patients. Methods Subjects with at least one mRss assessment within the first 5 years from onset were included. Random effects models were fitted to evaluate changes in mRss over time and model-predicted individual patient intercepts and slopes were included in Cox regression to assess associations with outcome. Results Of the 467 patients, 22.7% were male and mean age of disease onset was 45.5 years. Most frequent autoantibodies were anti-Scl70 in 30.2% and anti-RNA polymerase (ARA) in 30.0% of subjects. Average mRss at 12 months from onset was 25 and this declined over time, slowing down with longer disease duration (3.4, 2.7, 1.9 and 1.2 units at years 2, 3, 4 and 5). Higher initial mRss associated with greater subsequent decline (correlation coefficient -0.3). Both higher baseline mRSS (intercept) and slower decline (higher slope) predicted increased risk of death with 8% increase in hazard for every unit higher baseline mRss and 4% increase for every unit higher slope (Table 1). Adjusting for autoantibodies did not change the estimates. ANA+ENA- subjects had the highest risk of death, followed by ATA + (HR 0.91, p = 0.677 v ANA+ENA-), while risk was lowest among ARA+ subjects (HR 0.47, p = 0.002 v ANA+ENA-). Risk of pulmonary complications was associated with rate of change in mRss but not with baseline absolute value. A unit slower yearly decline in mRss increased the hazard of pulmonary fibrosis (PF) by 3.5% and pulmonary hypertension (PH) by 7% (Table 1). The association between mRss and PF disappeared after adjusting for antibody specificities, while the association between skin and PH did not change. Autoantibodies did not show significant association with PH development within this dcSSc cohort. Conclusion Although at a group level there is an improvement in skin over the initial 5 years, for individual patients, poor outcome for skin predicts increased risk of pulmonary complications and higher mortality. Disclosures S.I. Nihtyanova None. E.C. Derrett-Smith None. C. Fonseca None. V.H. Ong None. C.P. Denton None.

2009 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARIANE L. HERRICK ◽  
MARK LUNT ◽  
NINA WHIDBY ◽  
HOLLY ENNIS ◽  
ALAN SILMAN ◽  
...  

Objective.Randomized clinical trials in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) are challenging. We used an observational approach to estimate the relative effectiveness of different current treatment approaches, capturing entry and outcome data in a standardized way.Methods.Patients with dcSSc within 3 years of the onset of skin thickening were included. Standardized entry and followup data were collected in relation to the first disease-modifying treatment at baseline and 4–6 weeks, then 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. The 5 different protocols were (1) intravenous cyclophosphamide followed by mycophenolate mofetil (MMF); (2) antithymocyte globulin followed by MMF; (3) MMF alone; (4) no disease-modifying treatment; (5) other immunosuppressant treatment. The primary outcome measure was the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). Inverse probability of treatment weights were used to allow for differing patient characteristics between groups.Results.The study included 147 patients from 12 centers. Numbers of patients starting on Protocols 1 to 5 were 29, 25, 61, 19, and 13, respectively. mRSS decreased over time from 24 (IQ 19–32) at baseline to 15.5 (IQ 9–24.5) at 3 years. Although there were differences in the magnitude of the change for different protocols, there were no significant differences between protocols in the rate of change of mRSS over time (p = 0.43). When inverse probability weights were applied, the results remained nonsignificant (p = 0.41).Conclusion.Using this observational approach, there were no obvious differences in outcome between groups after allowing as far as possible for baseline differences in treatment allocations.


2011 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent G. Glance ◽  
Andrew W. Dick ◽  
Dana B. Mukamel ◽  
Fergal J. Fleming ◽  
Raymond A. Zollo ◽  
...  

Background The impact of intraoperative erythrocyte transfusion on outcomes of anemic patients undergoing noncardiac surgery has not been well characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between blood transfusion and mortality and morbidity in patients with severe anemia (hematocrit less than 30%) who are exposed to one or two units of erythrocytes intraoperatively. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of the association of blood transfusion and 30-day mortality and 30-day morbidity in 10,100 patients undergoing general, vascular, or orthopedic surgery. We estimated separate multivariate logistic regression models for 30-day mortality and for 30-day complications. Results Intraoperative blood transfusion was associated with an increased risk of death (odds ratio [OR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.62). Patients receiving an intraoperative transfusion were more likely to have pulmonary, septic, wound, or thromboembolic complications, compared with patients not receiving an intraoperative transfusion. Compared with patients who were not transfused, patients receiving one or two units of erythrocytes were more likely to have pulmonary complications (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.48-2.09), sepsis (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.21-1.68), thromboembolic complications (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.32-2.38), and wound complications (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.47-2.37). Conclusions Intraoperative blood transfusion is associated with a higher risk of mortality and morbidity in surgical patients with severe anemia. It is unknown whether this association is due to the adverse effects of blood transfusion or is, instead, the result of increased blood loss in the patients receiving blood.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (S3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bauserman ◽  
Vanessa R. Thorsten ◽  
Tracy L. Nolen ◽  
Jackie Patterson ◽  
Adrien Lokangaka ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Maternal mortality is a public health problem that disproportionately affects low and lower-middle income countries (LMICs). Appropriate data sources are lacking to effectively track maternal mortality and monitor changes in this health indicator over time. Methods We analyzed data from women enrolled in the NICHD Global Network for Women’s and Children’s Health Research Maternal Newborn Health Registry (MNHR) from 2010 through 2018. Women delivering within research sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, India (Nagpur and Belagavi), Kenya, Pakistan, and Zambia are included. We evaluated maternal and delivery characteristics using log-binomial models and multivariable models to obtain relative risk estimates for mortality. We used running averages to track maternal mortality ratio (MMR, maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) over time. Results We evaluated 571,321 pregnancies and 842 maternal deaths. We observed an MMR of 157 / 100,000 live births (95% CI 147, 167) across all sites, with a range of MMRs from 97 (76, 118) in the Guatemala site to 327 (293, 361) in the Pakistan site. When adjusted for maternal risk factors, risks of maternal mortality were higher with maternal age > 35 (RR 1.43 (1.06, 1.92)), no maternal education (RR 3.40 (2.08, 5.55)), lower education (RR 2.46 (1.54, 3.94)), nulliparity (RR 1.24 (1.01, 1.52)) and parity > 2 (RR 1.48 (1.15, 1.89)). Increased risk of maternal mortality was also associated with occurrence of obstructed labor (RR 1.58 (1.14, 2.19)), severe antepartum hemorrhage (RR 2.59 (1.83, 3.66)) and hypertensive disorders (RR 6.87 (5.05, 9.34)). Before and after adjusting for other characteristics, physician attendance at delivery, delivery in hospital and Caesarean delivery were associated with increased risk. We observed variable changes over time in the MMR within sites. Conclusions The MNHR is a useful tool for tracking MMRs in these LMICs. We identified maternal and delivery characteristics associated with increased risk of death, some might be confounded by indication. Despite declines in MMR in some sites, all sites had an MMR higher than the Sustainable Development Goals target of below 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030. Trial registration The MNHR is registered at NCT01073475.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1246.3-1247
Author(s):  
Y. Isomura ◽  
Y. Yamasaki ◽  
Y. Shirai ◽  
M. Kuwana

Background:Potential efficacy and favorable safety profiles of tocilizumab (TCZ) have been demonstrated in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) [1, 2]. However, clinical outcomes after dose-reduction or discontinuation of TCZ due to an improvement of skin thickness remain unclear.Objectives:To investigate the clinical outcomes after dose-reduction or discontinuation of TCZ in patients with dcSSc in a real-world setting.Methods:This is a single-center, retrospective, observational study using a database of consecutive SSc patients who visited our center between April 2014 and October 2020. For this study, we selected eligible patients from the database based on the following criteria: patients who (i) fulfilled the ACR/EULAR classification criteria, (ii) were classified as having dcSSc, (iii) had been treated with TCZ for at least 6 months, and (iv) were follow-up >6 months after TCZ introduction. Clinical information including demographic and clinical characteristics at TCZ introduction; dosing, administration route, and adherence of TCZ; and serial clinical parameters (modified Rondan total skin thickness score [mRSS], and percent predicted forced vital capacity [%FVC]), safety profiles, and outcomes after TCZ introduction regardless of TCZ continuation were extracted from the database.Results:Of 404 patients enrolled in the database, 13 dcSSc patients were eligible for this study. Baseline characteristics included a mean age of 51 ± 9 years, 85% female, disease duration of 27 ± 24 months, and mRSS of 19.5 ± 10.6. Seven patients (54%) had HRCT-confirmed ILD at baseline, and 9 (69%) were positive for anti-topoisomerase I antibody. Two (14%) and 11 (85%) were on mycophenolate mofetil and low-dose prednisolone (7.2 ± 6.0 mg/day), respectively. Seven patients (54%) each had active skin disease and elevated inflammatory markers defined in the phase III clinical trial [2], while only 4 (31%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. TCZ was initially administered intravenously (8 mg/kg every 4 weeks) in 8 patients and subcutaneously in 5 (162 mg every 2 weeks in 4 and every week in one). At one year, mRSS was improved from 20.9 ± 11.4 to 10.7 ± 8.9 in 11 patients (p = 0.007), and %FVC was stable in 7 patients with ILD (76.8 ± 15.0 to 78.6 ± 16.1). During the observation period of 60.4 ± 26.7 months, 4 patients were treated with a stable dose of TCZ, while TCZ dose was reduced and/or discontinued in 9. Four of them discontinued TCZ due to adverse events (n = 2; acute lung injury and phlegmon) or prominent improvement of skin thickening (n = 2). Of 9 patients with dose reduction/discontinuation of TCZ, 4 patients who discontinued TCZ (n = 3) or received dose reduction of TCZ (n = 1) experienced a recurrence of progressive skin thickening together with inflammatory complications, including edematous induration of the skin, progression of ILD, polyarthritis, and/or pericarditis with increased inflammatory markers. The interval between dose-reduction/discontinuation of TCZ and clinical worsening ranged from 2 to 11 months. These manifestations were promptly improved by dose-escalation or resumption of TCZ in all patients except one who experienced progressive ILD and died of respiratory failure 27 months later.Conclusion:In dcSSc patients who experienced improvement of skin thickness during treatment with TCZ, dose-reduction or discontinuation of TCZ may result in a recurrence of the disease. Randomized comparative studies are necessary to examine optimal timing for dose-reduction or discontinuation of TCZ in dcSSc patients after improvement of skin thickness.References:[1]Khanna, D., et al., Safety and efficacy of subcutaneous tocilizumab in systemic sclerosis: results from the open-label period of a phase II randomised controlled trial (faSScinate). Ann Rheum Dis, 2018. 77(2):212-220.[2]Khanna, D., et al., Tocilizumab in systemic sclerosis: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Respir Med, 2020; 8(10): 963-974.Disclosure of Interests:Yohei Isomura: None declared, Yoshioki Yamasaki Speakers bureau: Boehringer-Ingelheim, Nippon Shinyaku, Bristol Myers, Yuichiro Shirai Speakers bureau: Janssen, Grant/research support from: Janssen, Masataka Kuwana Speakers bureau: Abbie, Astellas, Asahi Kasei Parma, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Chugai, Eisai, Janssen, MBL, Mochida, Nippon Shinyaku, Ono Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Tanabe-Mitsubishi, Consultant of: Boehringer-Ingelheim, Chugai, Corbus, MBL, Mochida, Grant/research support from: Boehringer-Ingelheim, Chugai, Eisai, MBL, Ono Pharmaceuticals, Tanabe-Mitsubishi


2021 ◽  
pp. jim-2021-001810
Author(s):  
Alejandro López-Escobar ◽  
Rodrigo Madurga ◽  
José María Castellano ◽  
Santiago Ruiz de Aguiar ◽  
Sara Velázquez ◽  
...  

The clinical impact of COVID-19 disease calls for the identification of routine variables to identify patients at increased risk of death. Current understanding of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pathophysiology points toward an underlying cytokine release driving a hyperinflammatory and procoagulant state. In this scenario, white blood cells and platelets play a direct role as effectors of such inflammation and thrombotic response. We investigate whether hemogram-derived ratios such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and the systemic immune-inflammation index may help to identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes. Activated platelets and neutrophils may be playing a decisive role during the thromboinflammatory phase of COVID-19 so, in addition, we introduce and validate a novel marker, the neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR).Two thousand and eighty-eight hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admitted at any of the hospitals of HM Hospitales group in Spain, from March 1 to June 10, 2020, were categorized according to the primary outcome of in-hospital death.Baseline values, as well as the rate of increase of the four ratios analyzed were significantly higher at hospital admission in patients who died than in those who were discharged (p<0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression models, NLR (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.08, p=0.00035) and NPR (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.36, p<0.0001) were significantly and independently associated with in-hospital mortality.According to our results, hemogram-derived ratios obtained at hospital admission, as well as the rate of change during hospitalization, may easily detect, primarily using NLR and the novel NPR, patients with COVID-19 at high risk of in-hospital mortality.


2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Hou ◽  
Qing-li Zhu ◽  
He Liu ◽  
Yu-xin Jiang ◽  
Liang Wang ◽  
...  

Objective.To investigate skin elasticity using acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) quantification in systemic sclerosis (SSc), and compare the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) with measured shear wave velocity (SWV) and thickness of the skin.Methods.Fifteen patients with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) and 15 age-matched and sex-matched healthy controls were evaluated. The SWV and thickness of skin were measured at 17 sites corresponding to those assessed in the mRSS in each participant. The SWV measurements of skin were compared between patients with dcSSc and healthy controls. The correlations between the mRSS and the skin SWV and thickness were explored using Spearman’s correlation.Results.The SWV values were higher in patients with dcSSc compared with healthy controls at right hand dorsum, right forearm, left hand dorsum, left forearm, right foot dorsum, and left foot dorsum (p < 0.05). In patients with dcSSc, the SWV values of uninvolved skin were higher than those of controls (p < 0.001), and the SWV values increased with increasing skin scores except for skin score 3 (p < 0.05). The sum of the SWV values correlated with total clinical skin score (r = 0.841, p < 0.001), and the sum of the skin thickness correlated with total clinical skin score (r = 0.740, p = 0.002).Conclusion.ARFI quantification is feasible and reliable for assessing the skin involvement in dcSSc. ARFI quantification could identify early skin change that may precede palpable skin involvement, and may be a valuable adjunct to skin evaluation in patients with SSc.


Author(s):  
Charles DeCarlo ◽  
Christopher A. Latz ◽  
Laura T. Boitano ◽  
Young Kim ◽  
Adam Tanious ◽  
...  

Background: Literature detailing the natural history of asymptomatic penetrating aortic ulcers (PAU) is sparse and lacks long-term follow-up. This study sought to determine the rate of asymptomatic PAU growth over time and adverse events from asymptomatic PAU. Methods: A cohort of patients with asymptomatic PAU from 2005-2020 was followed. One ulcer was followed per patient. Primary endpoints were change in size over time and the composite of symptoms, radiographic progression, rupture, and intervention; cumulative incidence function estimated the incidence of the composite outcome. Ulcer size and rate of change were modeled using a linear mixed effects model. Patient and anatomic factors were evaluated as potential predictors of the outcomes. Results: There were 273 patients identified. Mean age was 75.5±9.6 years; 66.4% were male. The majority of ulcers were in the descending thoracic aorta (53.9%), followed by abdominal aorta (41.4%), and aortic arch (4.8%). Fusiform aneurysmal disease was present in 21.6% of patients at a separate location; 2.6% had an associated intramural hematoma; 23.6% had at least one other PAU. Symptoms developed in one patient who ruptured; 8 patients (2.9%) underwent an intervention for PAU (one for rupture, 2 for radiographic progression, 5 for size/growth) at a median of 3.1 years (IQR:1.0-6.5) after diagnosis. Five and 10-year cumulative incidence of the primary outcome, adjusted for competing risk of death, was 3.6% (95% CI: 1.6-6.9%) and 6.5% (95% CI: 3.1-11.4%), respectively. For 191 patients with multiple CT scans (760 total CT's) with median radiographic follow-up of 3.50 years (IQR:1.20-6.63 years), mean initial ulcer width, ulcer depth, and total diameter in millimeters (mm) was 13.6, 8.5, and 31.4, respectively. Small, but statistically significant change over time was observed for ulcer width (0.23 mm/year) and total diameter (0.24 mm/year); ulcer depth did not significantly change over time. Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, initial ulcer width>20 mm, thrombosed PAU, and associated saccular aneurysm were associated with larger changes in ulcer size over time, however the magnitude of difference was small, ranging from 0.4-1.9 mm/year. Conclusions: Asymptomatic PAU displayed minimal growth and infrequent complications including rupture. Asymptomatic PAU may be conservatively managed with serial imaging and risk-factor modification.


2021 ◽  
pp. annrheumdis-2021-221352
Author(s):  
Brian Skaug ◽  
Marka A Lyons ◽  
William R Swindell ◽  
Gloria A Salazar ◽  
Minghua Wu ◽  
...  

ObjectivesDetermine relationships between skin gene expression and systemic sclerosis (SSc) clinical disease features, and changes in skin gene expression over time.MethodsA total of 339 forearm skin biopsies were obtained from 113 SSc patients and 44 matched healthy controls. 105 SSc patients had a second biopsy, and 76 had a third biopsy. Global gene expression profiling was performed, and differentially expressed genes and cell type-specific signatures in SSc were evaluated for relationships to modified Rodnan Skin Score (mRSS) and other clinical variables. Changes in skin gene expression over time were analysed by mixed effects models and principal component analysis. Immunohistochemical staining was performed to validate conclusions.ResultsGene expression dysregulation was greater in SSc patients with affected skin than in those with unaffected skin. Immune cell and fibroblast signatures positively correlated with mRSS. High baseline immune cell and fibroblast signatures predicted higher mRSS over time, but were not independently predictive of longitudinal mRSS after adjustment for baseline mRSS. In early diffuse cutaneous SSc, immune cell and fibroblast signatures declined over time, and overall skin gene expression trended towards normalisation. On immunohistochemical staining, most early diffuse cutaneous SSc patients with high baseline T cell and macrophage numbers had declines in these numbers at follow-up.ConclusionsSkin thickness in SSc is related to dysregulated immune cell and fibroblast gene expression. Skin gene expression changes over time in early diffuse SSc, with a tendency towards normalisation. These observations are relevant for understanding SSc pathogenesis and could inform treatment strategies and clinical trial design.


2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 588-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua J. Solomon ◽  
Jonathan H. Chung ◽  
Gregory P. Cosgrove ◽  
M. Kristen Demoruelle ◽  
Evans R. Fernandez-Perez ◽  
...  

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a common pulmonary manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis. There is lack of clarity around predictors of mortality and disease behaviour over time in these patients.We identified rheumatoid arthritis-related interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) patients evaluated at National Jewish Health (Denver, CO, USA) from 1995 to 2013 whose baseline high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans showed either a nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) or a “definite” or “possible” usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern. We used univariate, multivariate and longitudinal analytical methods to identify clinical predictors of mortality and to model disease behaviour over time.The cohort included 137 subjects; 108 had UIP on HRCT (RA-UIP) and 29 had NSIP on HRCT (RA-NSIP). Those with RA-UIP had a shorter survival time than those with RA-NSIP (log rank p=0.02). In a model controlling for age, sex, smoking and HRCT pattern, a lower baseline % predicted forced vital capacity (FVC % pred) (HR 1.46; p<0.0001) and a 10% decline in FVC % pred from baseline to any time during follow up (HR 2.57; p<0.0001) were independently associated with an increased risk of death.Data from this study suggest that in RA-ILD, disease progression and survival differ between subgroups defined by HRCT pattern; however, when controlling for potentially influential variables, pulmonary physiology, but not HRCT pattern, independently predicts mortality.


Gut ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ola Olén ◽  
Johan Askling ◽  
Michael C Sachs ◽  
Martin Neovius ◽  
Karin E Smedby ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo examine all-cause and cause-specific mortality in adult-onset and elderly-onset IBD and to describe time trends in mortality over the past 50 years.DesignSwedish nationwide register-based cohort study 1964–2014, comparing mortality in 82 718 incident IBD cases (inpatient and non-primary outpatient care) with 10 times as many matched general population reference individuals (n=801 180) using multivariable Cox regression to estimate HRs. Among patients with IBD, the number of participants with elderly-onset (≥60 years) IBD was 17 873.ResultsDuring 984 330 person-years of follow-up, 15 698/82 718 (19%) of all patients with IBD died (15.9/1000 person-years) compared with 121 095/801 180 (15.1%) of reference individuals, corresponding to an HR of 1.5 for IBD (95% CI=1.5 to 1.5 (HR=1.5; 95% CI=1.5 to 1.5 in elderly-onset IBD)) or one extra death each year per 263 patients. Mortality was increased specifically for UC (HR=1.4; 95% CI=1.4 to 1.5), Crohn’s disease (HR=1.6; 95% CI=1.6 to 1.7) and IBD-unclasssified (HR=1.6; 95% CI=1.5 to 1.8). IBD was linked to increased rates of multiple causes of death, including cardiovascular disease (HR=1.3; 1.3 to 1.3), malignancy (HR=1.4; 1.4 to 1.5) and digestive disease (HR=5.2; 95% CI=4.9 to 5.5). Relative mortality during the first 5 years of follow-up decreased significantly over time. Incident cases of 2002–2014 had 2.3 years shorter mean estimated life span than matched comparators.ConclusionsAdult-onset and elderly-onset patients with UC, Crohn’s disease and IBD-unclassified were all at increased risk of death. The increased mortality remained also after the introduction of biological therapies but has decreased over time.


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