P170 Predictors of renal survival in a cohort of patients with lupus nephritis with more than 30 years of follow-up

Abstract Background Despite the improvement in survival of patients with lupus nephritis (LN) over the last decades, LN is associated with progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a significant proportion of patients. We aimed to investigate the factors influencing renal survival in patients with LN. Methods Single-centre retrospective observational study. Patients with biopsy-proven proliferative, membranous or mixed LN were included. Individual clinical files were reviewed to obtain demographic, clinical, laboratory and pathological data. Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate predictors of progression to ESRD and Kaplan-Meier curves were obtained. Results We studied 187 LN patients (135 proliferative, 38 membranous and 14 mixed LN), followed for up to 42 years (mean 13±9 years). Cumulative renal survival rates at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were 93%, 85%, 78% and 70%, respectively. In univariable analysis, urinary protein/creatinine ratio (uPCR) above 42 mg/mmol or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 76 mL/min/1.73m2, one year after the diagnosis of LN, were the strongest predictors of progression to ESRD, with hazard ratios (HR) of 8.081 [95%CI:1.856-35.179] and 4.985 [95%CI:1.964-12.651], respectively. HR for uPCR and eGFR at the time of diagnosis were considerably smaller (2.508 [95%CI:1.062-5.922] and 2.833 [95%CI:1.156-6.945] respectively). Other factors associated with increased risk of ESRD were Afro-Caribbean ethnicity (HR = 3.861 [95%CI:1.817-8.206]), proliferative LN (HR = 3.423 [95%CI:1.049-11.173]), not having taken antimalarials (HR = 2.180 [95%CI:1.089-4.363]) and poorly controlled diastolic blood pressure (HR = 1.016 [95%CI:1.001-1.030]). The effect of uPCR and eGFR at one year remained significant after adjusting for ethnicity, histological class, uPCR and eGFR at the time of diagnosis, use of antimalarials and diastolic blood pressure (Table 1). Conclusion uPCR above 42 mg/mmol and eGFR below 76 mL/min/1.73m2, one year after the diagnosis of LN, were the strongest predictors of progression to ESRD. Disclosures F. Farinha None. R.J. Pepper None. D.G. Oliveira None. T. McDonnell None. D.A. Isenberg None. A. Rahman None.

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Myocardial reperfusion reverses the J-curve association of cardiovascular risk and diastolic blood pressure in patients with left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure after myocardial infarction: insights from the EPHESUS trial

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa132 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (17) ◽

pp. 1673-1683 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Michael Böhm ◽

João Pedro Ferreira ◽

Felix Mahfoud ◽

Kevin Duarte ◽

Bertram Pitt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Myocardial Infarction ◽

Heart Failure ◽

Blood Pressure ◽

Diastolic Blood Pressure ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cardiovascular Death ◽

Left Ventricular ◽

Coronary Perfusion ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact

Abstract Aims The described association of low diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with increased cardiovascular outcomes could be due to reduced coronary perfusion or is simply due to reverse causation. If DBP is physiologically relevant, coronary reperfusion after myocardial infarction (MI) might influence DBP–risk association. Methods and results The relation of achieved DBP with cardiovascular death or cardiovascular hospitalization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death was explored in 5929 patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with impaired left ventricular function, signs and symptoms of heart failure, or diabetes in the EPHESUS trial according to their reperfusion status. Cox regression models were used to assess the impact of reperfusion status on the association of DBP and systolic blood pressure (SBP) with outcomes in an adjusted fashion. In patients without reperfusion, lower DBP <70 mmHg was associated with increased risk for all-cause death [adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41–2.30; P < 0.001], cardiovascular death (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.3–3.22; P < 0.001), cardiovascular death or cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.26–1.87; P < 0.001). In patients with reperfusion, the risk increase at low DBP was not observed. At low SBP, risk increased independently of reperfusion. A sensitivity analysis in the subgroup of patients with optimal SBP of 120–130 mmHg showed again risk reduction of reperfusion at low DBP. Adding the treatment allocation to eplerenone or placebo into the models had no effects on the results. Conclusion Patients after AMIs with a low DBP had an increased risk, which was sensitive to reperfusion therapy. Low blood pressure after MI identifies in patients with particular higher risk. These data support the hypothesis that low DBP in patients with stenotic coronary lesions is associated with risk, potentially involving coronary perfusion pressure and the recommendations provided by guidelines suggesting lower DBP boundaries for these high-risk patients.

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Outcomes within a year following first ever stroke in Tanzania

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0246492 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. e0246492

Author(s):

Kezia Kodawa Tessua ◽

Patricia Munseri ◽

Sarah Shali Matuja

Keyword(s):

Preventive Measures ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Academic Medical Center ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Adverse Outcomes ◽

Stroke Survivors ◽

Modified Rankin Scale ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

One Year

Background Stroke contributes to a significant proportion of deaths and disability worldwide, with a high fatality rate within 30 days following a first ever stroke. We describe the outcomes within one year among patients who succumbed a first ever stroke and survived the first 30 days. Methods Participants were patients who survived after 30 days from succumbing a first ever stroke admitted at the Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences Academic Medical Center. Stroke survivors or their next of kin were contacted at one year after succumbing a first stroke to determine the outcomes. We assessed participants’ vital status and level of disability using the modified Rankin scale. Assessment on utilization of stroke secondary preventive measures among survivors was done by an interviewer-based questionnaire that assessed the number of times participants attended follow up clinics, medication refill and adherence. Participants were examined for waist-hip ratio, body mass index and blood pressure. Cholesterol levels were assessed at one year post first stroke for survivors. Outcomes were summarized as proportions, survival at one year was estimated by using the Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis was performed to determine for predictors of mortality. Results We recruited 130 first stroke survivors. Mortality within one year was 53/130 (40.8%) and disability rate measured by Modified Rankin Scale with scores of 3–5 was 29/77 (37.7%) among survivors. Factors associated with mortality were residual disability HR = 8.60, {95% CI (1.16–63.96)}, severe stroke, HR = 2.67 {95% CI (1.44–4.95)} and residing in Dar-es-Salaam HR = 2.15 {95% (CI 1.06–4.36)}. Non-adherence rates to antihypertensives, antiplatelets and statins was 11/73 (15.1%), 9/23 (39.1%) and 18/22 (81.8%) respectively. Attendance rates of follow-up clinics among all survivors and physiotherapy among survivors with disability are 45/77 (58.4%) and 16/29 (55.2%) respectively. Conclusions The mortality and disability rates within a year following a first ever stroke among 30 days stroke survivors is high. Secondary stroke preventive measures should be enhanced to mitigate stroke adverse outcomes. Community outreach programs could be useful interventions in preventing the adverse outcomes of stroke.

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Blood Pressure Classification of 2017 Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Young Chinese Adults

Hypertension ◽

10.1161/hypertensionaha.119.14239 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 76 (1) ◽

pp. 251-258 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Shouling Wu ◽

Yongjian Song ◽

Shuohua Chen ◽

Mengyi Zheng ◽

Yihan Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Chinese Adults ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

New Guidelines ◽

Stage 1

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association introduced new guidelines for blood pressure (BP) classification in 2017. We explored associations between the newly defined categories and eventual cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, stroke, and all-cause mortality in young Chinese adults. In the community-based Kailuan Study, 16 006 participants aged 18 to 40 years and examined at baseline in 2006/2007 underwent 2-yearly follow-up examinations up to 2016 to 2017. Taking the highest BP reading recorded by manual sphygmomanometry at baseline in 2006 to 2007, we categorized the BP according to the new guidelines. Outcome parameters were CVD events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. During follow-up (mean: 10.9±0.63 years), we observed 458 events (CVD, 167; stroke, 119; and all-cause death, 172). After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for CVD events were for elevated BP 0.80 (95% CI, 0.28–2.30), stage 1 hypertension 1.82 (95% CI, 1.12–2.94), and stage 2 hypertension 3.54 (95% CI, 2.18–5.77) versus normal BP. Similar results were obtained for stroke and all-cause death. In Cox regression analysis with BP category entered as time-dependent covariate, stage 1 hypertension was not associated with increased risk ( P >0.10). In the subgroup of individuals taking antihypertensive medication during follow-up, none of the BP categories was significantly associated with the incidence of CVD events. During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, the newly defined category of stage 1 hypertension in young untreated Chinese adults aged <40 years at baseline was associated with an increased risk for CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality. This increased risk occurred, however, after progression to stage 2 hypertension. The data may help validating the new BP classification system for young adult Chinese.

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Relationship between diastolic blood pressure and the first ischaemic stroke in elderly patients with hypertension

Postgraduate Medical Journal ◽

10.1136/postgradmedj-2019-137018 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 96 (1139) ◽

pp. 525-529

Author(s):

Chao-Lei Chen ◽

Jia-Yi Huang ◽

Lin Liu ◽

Yu-Ling Yu ◽

Geng Shen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Elderly Patients ◽

Ischaemic Stroke ◽

Diastolic Blood Pressure ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Interaction Analysis ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Elder Patients ◽

Adjusted Model

BackgroundIt is uncertain how diastolic blood pressure (DBP) may associate with ischaemic stroke in elder patients with hypertension. We aimed to explore this relationship in a Chinese community.MethodsA total of 3315 participants aged ≥60 years with essential hypertension were enrolled between January 2010 and December 2011, and being followed up until 31 December 2016. DBP levels were categorised into five groups (<60, 60–70, 70–80, 80–90 and ≥90 mm Hg), using 70–80 mm Hg as referent. We performed Cox regression analysis and subgroup analyses to evaluate the relationship between DBP and the incidence of ischaemic stroke.ResultsAmong the 3315 participants, 44.49% were men and they were 71.4 years old on average. During a median follow-up period of 5.5 years, there were 206 onset cases of ischaemic stroke. The HRs for the first ischaemic stroke in the fully adjusted model were 1.32 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.40) for DBP <70 mm Hg, 1.50 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.73) for DBP between 80 and 89.9 mm Hg and 2.31 (95% CI 1.14 to 4.68) for DBP ≥90 mm Hg compared with DBP between 70 and 79.9 mm Hg (p=0.020 for trend). Subgroup and interaction analysis showed no significant findings.ConclusionsDBP had a non-linear association with the risk of ischaemic stroke among Chinese elderly patients with hypertension. DBP between 70 and 80 mm Hg may be an appropriate indicator for a lower stroke risk.

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Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease in Lupus Nephritis: Is Dialysis Inevitable?

The Journal of Rheumatology ◽

10.3899/jrheum.191064 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (9) ◽

pp. 1366-1373 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Konstantinos Tselios ◽

Dafna D. Gladman ◽

Jiandong Su ◽

Murray B. Urowitz

Keyword(s):

Chronic Kidney Disease ◽

Renal Function ◽

Kidney Disease ◽

Lupus Nephritis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Renin Angiotensin System ◽

Endstage Renal Disease ◽

Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk

Objective.Advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) carries an increased risk for progression to endstage renal disease (ESRD). We aimed to determine the rate of progression and the factors that drive the decline of renal function in lupus nephritis (LN).Methods.Patients with advanced LN-related CKD were identified from our longterm longitudinal cohort. Advanced CKD was defined as stage 3b [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) = 30–44 ml/min/1.73 m2] and stage 4 (eGFR = 15–29 ml/min/1.73 m2). All individuals were followed until progression to ESRD or the last visit and were divided into “progressors” and “non- progressors.” Demographic, clinical, immunological, and therapeutic variables were compared at baseline. Multivariable Cox regression analysis (both time-dependent and independent) was performed to identify predictors for progression.Results.One hundred eighteen patients (74 CKD 3b and 44 CKD 4) were included. Forty-five patients progressed (29 to ESRD and 16 from CKD 3b to CKD 4) after 6 years on average. No significant decline in the renal function was observed in 73 patients (“non-progressors”) after 10 years on average. Active serology (high anti-dsDNA titers and low complements C3/C4) at the time of CKD diagnosis and any increase of the daily prednisone dose after baseline were strongly associated with progression. Treatment with renin angiotensin system (RAS) blockers was associated with less risk for progression.Conclusion.Dialysis is not inevitable in LN-related advanced CKD because 62% of our patients did not progress over 10 years of followup on average. Certain predictors were identified to affect progression to ESRD.

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Comparison of incidence rates and risk factors of heart failure between two male cohorts born 30 years apart

Heart ◽

10.1136/heartjnl-2019-316059 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 106 (21) ◽

pp. 1672-1678

Author(s):

Constantinos Ergatoudes ◽

Per-Olof Hansson ◽

Kurt Svärdsudd ◽

Annika Rosengren ◽

Erik Östgärd Thunström ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Blood Pressure ◽

Heart Disease ◽

Ischaemic Heart Disease ◽

Physical Inactivity ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact

ObjectiveTo compare two cohorts of middle-aged men from the general population born 30 years apart for incidence and predictors of heart failure (HF).MethodsTwo population samples of men, born in 1913 (n=855) and in 1943 (n=797), were examined at 50 years of age and followed up for 21 years (1963–1994 and 1993–2014). Cox regression analysis was used to examine the impact of different factors on the risk of developing HF.ResultsEighty men born in 1913 (9.4%) and 42 men born in 1943 (5.3%) developed HF during follow-up; adjusted HRs comparing the two cohorts (born 1943 vs 1913) were: 0.46 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.74, p=0.002). In both cohorts, higher body mass index, higher diastolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, onset of either atrial fibrillation (AF), ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus were associated with higher risk of HF. Higher heart rate was associated with an increased risk only in men born in 1913, whereas higher systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, higher glucose, higher cholesterol and physical inactivity were associated with an increased risk in men born in 1943. AF contributed higher risk of incident HF, whereas SBP and physical inactivity contributed lower risk in men born in 1943 compared with men born in 1913.ConclusionsMen born in 1943 had half the risk of HF after their 50s than those born 30 years earlier. AF, obesity, ischaemic heart disease, diabetes and hypertension remain important precursors of HF.

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Platelet count and mean platelet volume predict outcome in adults with Eisenmenger syndrome

Heart ◽

10.1136/heartjnl-2016-311144 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 104 (1) ◽

pp. 45-50 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Agustin C Martin-Garcia ◽

Deepa RJ Arachchillage ◽

Aleksander Kempny ◽

Rafael Alonso-Gonzalez ◽

Ana Martin-Garcia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Platelet Count ◽

Mean Platelet Volume ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Haemoglobin Concentration ◽

Eisenmenger Syndrome ◽

Platelet Volume ◽

Thrombotic Risk ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk

ObjectivesAlthough a significant proportion of patients with cyanotic congenital heart disease are thrombocytopaenic, its prevalence and clinical significance in adults with Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) is not well studied. Accordingly, we examined the relationship of thrombocytopaenia and mean platelet volume (MPV) to bleeding or thrombotic complications and survival in a contemporary cohort of patients with ES, including patients with Down syndrome.MethodsDemographics, laboratory and clinical data were analysed from 226 patients with ES under active follow-up over 11 years.ResultsAge at baseline was 34.6±11.4 years and 34.1% were men. Mean platelet count and MPV were 152.6±73.3×109/L and 9.6±1.2 fL, respectively. A strong inverse correlation was found between platelet count and haemoglobin concentration and MPV. During the study, there were 39 deaths, and 21 thrombotic and 43 bleeding events. On univariate Cox regression analysis, patients with a platelet count <100×109/L had a twofold increased mortality (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.01, p=0.024). Platelet count was not associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. However, there was a threefold increased thrombotic risk with MPV >9.5 fL (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 9.54, p=0.015). Patients with either severe secondary erythrocytosis (>220g/L) or anaemia (<130g/L) were at higher risk of thrombotic events (HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.60 to 9.67, p=0.003; and HR 4.75, 95% CI 1.03 to 21.84, p=0.045, respectively).ConclusionsThrombocytopaenia significantly increased the risk of mortality in ES. Furthermore, raised MPV, severe secondary erythrocytosis and anaemia, but not platelet count, were associated with an increased risk of thrombotic events in our adult cohort.

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Hypertension and Dementia in the Elderly: The Leisure World Cohort Study

International Journal of Hypertension ◽

10.1155/2012/205350 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-5 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Annlia Paganini-Hill

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Blood Pressure Medication ◽

Hospital Data ◽

Men And Women ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk

Recent studies have highlighted the deleterious role of cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension, on the incidence of dementia. Although midlife hypertension is associated with later development of dementia, the role of late-life hypertension remains unclear. We explored the association of hypertension and its treatment with incident dementia in 13978 older (median = 74years) adults followed from 1981 to 2010 (median = 13years) and calculated risk estimates using Cox regression analysis in two age groups (<75 and 75+ years) in men and women separately. Dementia status was determined from in-person evaluations, followup questionnaires, hospital data, and death certificates. In the older women, current users of blood pressure medication at baseline had a 26% increased risk of dementia (95% CI 1.06–1.51). In the younger men, those with untreated hypertension and those with past use of blood pressure medication use had about a 30% nonsignificant increased risk of dementia. High blood pressure and its treatment appear to have different effects in men and women and in the old and older.

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Carotid Vascular Strain Predicts Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Hypertension

10.22541/au.162256869.92141960/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wei-Chuan Tsai ◽

Wen-Huang Lee ◽

Huey-Ru Tsai ◽

Mu-Shiang Huang

Keyword(s):

Blood Pressure ◽

Systolic Blood Pressure ◽

Diastolic Blood Pressure ◽

Cardiovascular Events ◽

Speckle Tracking ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Coronary Syndrome ◽

Major Cardiovascular Events

Background: We aim to investigate prognostic effects of carotid strain (CS) and strain rate (CSR) in hypertension. Methods: We prospectively recruited 120 patients being treated for hypertension (65.8 ± 11.8 years, 58% male) in this observational study. Peak circumferential CS and peak CSR after ejection were identified using two-dimensional speckle tracking ultrasound. Major cardiovascular events were any admission for stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure. Results: After a mean follow-up period of 63.6 ± 14.5 months, 14 (12%) patients had cardiovascular events. Age (75.3 ± 9.2 vs. 64.6 ± 11.6 years; p = 0.001), systolic blood pressure (131.8 ± 15.5 vs. 143.1 ± 16.6 mmHg; p = 0.021), diastolic blood pressure (74.6 ±11.4 vs. 82.1 ± 12.2 mmHg; p = 0.039), use of diuretics (71 vs. 92 %; p = 0.014), carotid CS (2.17 ± 1.02 vs. 3.28 ± 1.14 %; p = 0.001), and CSR (0.28 ± 0.17 vs. 0.51 ± 0.18 1/s; p <0.001) were significantly different between the patients who did and did not reach the end-points. Multivariate Cox regression analysis controlling for age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and use of diuretics showed that CS (HR 0.425, 95%CI 0.223-0.811, p = 0.009) and CSR (HR 0.001, 95%CI 0.000-0.072, p = 0.001) were independent predictors for cardiovascular events. Conclusion: In conclusions, decreased CS and CSR were associated with cardiovascular events in hypertension.

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The Influence of Constipation on Asthma: A Real-world, Population-based Cohort Study

10.22541/au.161089372.23442799/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yen Chu Huang ◽

Meng Che Wu ◽

Yu-Hsun Wang ◽

James Cheng-Chung Wei

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Population Based ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Adjusted Hazard Ratio ◽

World Population ◽

Research Database ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Increased Risk ◽

One Year

Background Among respiratory diseases, asthma is one of the most burdensome disorder worldwide. Growing evidence disclose gut dysbiosis may contribute to asthma via the gut-lung axis. Constipation can lead to alteration of the gut microflora. The clinical impact of constipation on asthma has not been researched. Therefore, we aim to assess the risk of asthma in constipated patients by a nationwide population-based cohort study. Methods We analyzed 82421 constipated patients and 82421 individuals without constipation between 1999 and 2013 from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database. Analysis of propensity score was utilized to match age, gender, comorbidities, and medications at a ratio of 1:1. Besides, multiple Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the adjusted hazard ratio of asthma. Furthermore, sensitivity tests and a stratified analysis were conducted. Results The incidence of asthma was 10.8 per 1,000 person-years in the constipation group, which was higher than the rate of 5.6 per 1,000 person-years observed in the non-constipation group. After adjustment for age, gender, comorbidities, and medications, constipated patients had a 1.91-fold greater risk of asthma compared to those without constipation (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.91 (95% C.I. 1.84-1.99). In subgroup analyses, patients aged 20-39 years had a 2.04-fold highest risk of asthma in the constipation cohort (aHR:2.04, 95% CI, 1.84-2.26). Besides, the severity of constipation is associated with an increased risk of asthma; the aHR was 1.76 (1.69-1.85), 2.15(2.03-2.27), and 2.29(2.10-2.49) for < 3 times, 3-12 times, and ≥12 times of laxatives prescription within one year, respectively. (p<0.001) Moreover, constipated patients had a higher likelihood of asthma, regardless of gender, comorbidities, and medications. Conclusion Constipation relates to a significantly increased risk of asthma. Physicians should be aware of the possibility of asthma in constipated people. Further research is warranted to investigate the possible pathological mechanisms of this association.

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