scholarly journals Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions

2004 ◽  
Vol 359 (1443) ◽  
pp. 311-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yadvinder Malhi ◽  
James Wright

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960–1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid–1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid–1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 ± 0.05 °C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 ± 0.8% per decade ( p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3–4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate–change–induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry–season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry–season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1718-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha G. Roberts ◽  
David Dawe ◽  
Walter P. Falcon ◽  
Rosamond L. Naylor

Abstract This study uses regression analysis to evaluate the relationships among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño-3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), rainfall, and rice production, area harvested, and yield in Luzon, the large island on which most Philippine rice is grown. Previous research on Philippine rice production and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has found negative associations between El Niño events and rice yields in rainfed systems. This analysis goes further and shows that both irrigated and rainfed ecosystems are impacted. It also compares impacts on area harvested and yield. Variations in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTAs explain approximately 29% of the interannual variations in the deviations of total January–June (dry season) rice production from a polynomial trend for 1970–2005. In contrast, no impact was found on July–December production in either year t or t + 1. The impact of ENSO on dry-season rice production in Luzon appears to be primarily due to changes in area harvested rather than yield. Production declines for rainfed ecosystems are relatively larger than for irrigated ecosystems: a 1°C increase in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTA is associated with a 3.7% decrease in irrigated dry-season production but with a 13.7% decline in rainfed dry-season production.


Agromet ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Rahmat Hidayat ◽  
Kentaro Ando

Rainfall variability over Indonesia and its relation to El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events were investigated using the Japanese 25-year reanalysis/Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/ JCDAS). The JRA-25 data consistently depicts seasonal variation of Indonesian rainfall with a wet season that peaks at December-January and a dry season that peaks in July-August when the convection belt moved northward. Composite analysis of rainfall, sea surface temperature and low-level wind anomalies have shown that the impact of ENSO/IOD on rainfall variations in Indonesia is clearly dominant during dry season. Drought conditions typically occur during El Niño years when SST anomalies surrounding Indonesia are cool and walker circulation is weakened, resulting in anomalous surface easterlies across Indonesia. In contrast, in the wet season, the weakening of the relationship between ENSO and Indonesian rainfall is linked to the transition between surface southeasterlies to northwesterlies. At this time persistent surface easterly anomalies across Indonesia superimposed on the climatological mean winds during a warm phase of ENSO event acts to reduce the wind speed resulting reduced the negative DJF rainfall anomalies.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazimierz Becek ◽  
Kamaria A. Salim

Abstract. The air temperature and light intensity were recorded in a tropical rainforest of Brunei Darussalam at 20-minute interval in 2017. HOBO Pendant® data loggers were attached to tree trunks approximately 2 m above ground. The obtained data can be used to study various microclimatic, biological and ecological characteristics of tropical rainforests in Brunei. The long term observations can also be used to study the impact of global climate change on the canopy of tropical rainforest. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17632/5vzp6svhwh.3 (Becek, 2018).


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Everton B. P. Miranda ◽  
Carlos A. Peres ◽  
Vítor Carvalho-Rocha ◽  
Bruna V. Miguel ◽  
Nickolas Lormand ◽  
...  

AbstractApex predators are threatened globally, and their local extinctions are often driven by failures in sustaining prey acquisition under contexts of severe prey scarcity. The harpy eagle Harpia harpyja is Earth’s largest eagle and the apex aerial predator of Amazonian forests, but no previous study has examined the impact of forest loss on their feeding ecology. We monitored 16 active harpy eagle nests embedded within landscapes that had experienced 0 to 85% of forest loss, and identified 306 captured prey items. Harpy eagles could not switch to open-habitat prey in deforested habitats, and retained a diet based on canopy vertebrates even in deforested landscapes. Feeding rates decreased with forest loss, with three fledged individuals dying of starvation in landscapes that succumbed to 50–70% deforestation. Because landscapes deforested by > 70% supported no nests, and eaglets could not be provisioned to independence within landscapes > 50% forest loss, we established a 50% forest cover threshold for the reproductive viability of harpy eagle pairs. Our scaling-up estimate indicates that 35% of the entire 428,800-km2 Amazonian ‘Arc of Deforestation’ study region cannot support breeding harpy eagle populations. Our results suggest that restoring harpy eagle population viability within highly fragmented forest landscapes critically depends on decisive forest conservation action.


2018 ◽  
pp. 107-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. V. Chernenkova ◽  
O. V. Morozova ◽  
N. G. Belyaeva ◽  
M. Yu. Puzachenko

This study aimed at an investigation of the structure, ecology and mapping of mixed communities with the participation of spruce, pine and broad-leave trees in one of the regions of broad-leave–coniferous zone. Despite the long history of the nature use of the study area, including forestry practices (Kurnayev, 1968; Rysin, Saveliyeva, 2007; Arkhipova, 2014; Belyaeva, Popov, 2016), the communities kept the main features of the indigenous forests of the broad-leave–coniferous zone ­— the tree species polydominance of the stands, the multilayer structure of communities and the high species diversity. In the course of field works in the southwestern part of the Moscow Region (2000–2016) 120 relevés were made. Spatial structure, species composition as well as cover values (%) of all vascular plants and bryophytes were recorded in each stand. The relevés were analysed following the ecology-phytocenotic classification approach and methods of multivariate statistical analysis that allowed correctly to differentiate communities according the broad-leave species participation. The accuracy of the classification based on the results of discriminant analysis was 95.8 %. Evaluation of the similarity of the selected units was carried out with the help of cluster analysis (Fig. 12). Clustering into groups is performed according to the activity index of species (A) (Malyshev, 1973) within the allocated syntaxon using Euclidean distance and Ward’s method. The classification results are corrected by DCA ordination in PC-ORD 5.0 (McCune, Mefford, 2006) (Fig. 1). Spatial mapping of forest cover was carried out on the basis of ground data, Landsat satellite images (Landsat 5 TM, 7 ETM +, 8 OLI_TIRS), digital elevation (DEM) and statistical methods (Puzachenko et al., 2014; Chernenkova et al., 2015) (Fig. 13 а, б). The obtained data and the developed classification refine the existing understanding of the phytocenotic structure of the forest cover of the broad-leave–coniferous zone. Three forest formation groups with different shares of broad-leave species in the canopy with seven groups of associations were described: a) coniferous forests with broad-leave species (small- and broad-herb spruce forests with oak and lime (1)); broad-herb spruce forests with oak and lime (2); small- and broad-herb pine forests with spruce, lime, oak and hazel (3); broad-herb pine forests with lime, oak and hazel (4)), b) broad-leave–coniferous forests (broad-herb spruce–broad-leave forests (5)), and c) broad-leave forests (broad-herb oak forests (6), broad-herb lime forests (7)). In the row of discussed syntaxa from 1 to 7 group, the change in the ratio of coniferous and broad-leave species of the tree layer (A) reflects re­gular decrease in the participation of spruce in the plant cover (from 66 to 6 %; Fig. 3 A1, A2) and an increase in oak and lime more than threefold (from 15 to 65 %; Fig. 4 a). Nemoral species predominate in the composition of ground layers, the cove­rage of which increases (from 40 to 80 %) in the range from 1 to 7 group, the coverage of the boreal group varies from 55 to 8 % (Fig. 11) while maintaining the presence of these species, even in nemoral lime and oak forests. In forests with equal share of broad-leave and coniferous trees (group 5) the nemoral species predominate in herb layer. In oak forests (group 6) the species of the nitro group are maximally represented, which is natural for oak forests occurring on rich soils, and also having abundant undergrowth of hazel. Practically in all studied groups the presence of both coniferous (in particular, spruce) and broad-leave trees in undergrowth (B) and ground layer (C) were present in equal proportions (Fig. 3). This does not confirm the unambiguity of the enrichment with nemoral species and increase in their cover in complex spruce and pine forests in connection with the climate warming in this region, but rather indicates on natural change of the main tree species in the cenopopulations. Further development of the stand and the formation of coni­ferous or broad-leave communities is conditioned by landscape. It is proved that the distribution of different types of communities is statistically significant due to the relief. According to the results of the analysis of remote information, the distribution areas of coniferous forests with broad-leave species, mixed and broad-leave forest areas for the study region are represented equally. The largest massifs of broad-leave–coniferous forests are located in the central and western parts of the study area, while in the eastern one the broad-leave forests predominate, that is a confirmation of the zonal ecotone (along the Pakhra River: Petrov, Kuzenkova, 1968) from broad-leave–coniferous forests to broad-leave forests.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 3226
Author(s):  
Daniel Cunningham ◽  
Paul Cunningham ◽  
Matthew E. Fagan

Global tree cover products face challenges in accurately predicting tree cover across biophysical gradients, such as precipitation or agricultural cover. To generate a natural forest cover map for Costa Rica, biases in tree cover estimation in the most widely used tree cover product (the Global Forest Change product (GFC) were quantified and corrected, and the impact of map biases on estimates of forest cover and fragmentation was examined. First, a forest reference dataset was developed to examine how the difference between reference and GFC-predicted tree cover estimates varied along gradients of precipitation and elevation, and nonlinear statistical models were fit to predict the bias. Next, an agricultural land cover map was generated by classifying Landsat and ALOS PalSAR imagery (overall accuracy of 97%) to allow removing six common agricultural crops from estimates of tree cover. Finally, the GFC product was corrected through an integrated process using the nonlinear predictions of precipitation and elevation biases and the agricultural crop map as inputs. The accuracy of tree cover prediction increased by ≈29% over the original global forest change product (the R2 rose from 0.416 to 0.538). Using an optimized 89% tree cover threshold to create a forest/nonforest map, we found that fragmentation declined and core forest area and connectivity increased in the corrected forest cover map, especially in dry tropical forests, protected areas, and designated habitat corridors. By contrast, the core forest area decreased locally where agricultural fields were removed from estimates of natural tree cover. This research demonstrates a simple, transferable methodology to correct for observed biases in the Global Forest Change product. The use of uncorrected tree cover products may markedly over- or underestimate forest cover and fragmentation, especially in tropical regions with low precipitation, significant topography, and/or perennial agricultural production.


Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265
Author(s):  
Mihnea Cățeanu ◽  
Arcadie Ciubotaru

Laser scanning via LiDAR is a powerful technique for collecting data necessary for Digital Terrain Model (DTM) generation, even in densely forested areas. LiDAR observations located at the ground level can be separated from the initial point cloud and used as input for the generation of a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) via interpolation. This paper proposes a quantitative analysis of the accuracy of DTMs (and derived slope maps) obtained from LiDAR data and is focused on conditions common to most forestry activities (rough, steep terrain with forest cover). Three interpolation algorithms were tested: Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Natural Neighbour (NN) and Thin-Plate Spline (TPS). Research was mainly focused on the issue of point data density. To analyze its impact on the quality of ground surface modelling, the density of the filtered data set was artificially lowered (from 0.89 to 0.09 points/m2) by randomly removing point observations in 10% increments. This provides a comprehensive method of evaluating the impact of LiDAR ground point density on DTM accuracy. While the reduction of point density leads to a less accurate DTM in all cases (as expected), the exact pattern varies by algorithm. The accuracy of the LiDAR-derived DTMs is relatively good even when LiDAR sampling density is reduced to 0.40–0.50 points/m2 (50–60 % of the initial point density), as long as a suitable interpolation algorithm is used (as IDW proved to be less resilient to density reductions below approximately 0.60 points/m2). In the case of slope estimation, the pattern is relatively similar, except the difference in accuracy between IDW and the other two algorithms is even more pronounced than in the case of DTM accuracy. Based on this research, we conclude that LiDAR is an adequate method for collecting morphological data necessary for modelling the ground surface, even when the sampling density is significantly reduced.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 959
Author(s):  
Benjamin Clark ◽  
Ruth DeFries ◽  
Jagdish Krishnaswamy

As part of its nationally determined contributions as well as national forest policy goals, India plans to boost tree cover to 33% of its land area. Land currently under other uses will require tree-plantations or reforestation to achieve this goal. This paper examines the effects of converting cropland to tree or forest cover in the Central India Highlands (CIH). The paper examines the impact of increased forest cover on groundwater infiltration and recharge, which are essential for sustainable Rabi (winter, non-monsoon) season irrigation and agricultural production. Field measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) linked to hydrological modeling estimate increased forest cover impact on the CIH hydrology. Kfs tests in 118 sites demonstrate a significant land cover effect, with forest cover having a higher Kfs of 20.2 mm hr−1 than croplands (6.7mm hr−1). The spatial processes in hydrology (SPHY) model simulated forest cover from 2% to 75% and showed that each basin reacts differently, depending on the amount of agriculture under paddy. Paddy agriculture can compensate for low infiltration through increased depression storage, allowing for continuous infiltration and groundwater recharge. Expanding forest cover to 33% in the CIH would reduce groundwater recharge by 7.94 mm (−1%) when converting the average cropland and increase it by 15.38 mm (3%) if reforestation is conducted on non-paddy agriculture. Intermediate forest cover shows however shows potential for increase in net benefits.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 6782
Author(s):  
Borko Đ. Bulajić ◽  
Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko ◽  
Gordana Pavić

The severity of vertical seismic ground motions is often factored into design regulations as a component of their horizontal counterparts. Furthermore, most design codes, including Eurocode 8, ignore the impact of local soil on vertical spectra. This paper investigates vertical pseudo-absolute acceleration spectral estimates, as well as the ratios of spectral estimates for strong motion in vertical and horizontal directions, for low to medium seismicity regions with deep local soil and deep geological sediments beneath the local soil. The case study region encompasses the city of Osijek in Croatia. New regional frequency-dependent empirical scaling equations are derived for the vertical spectra. According to these equations, for a 0.3 s spectral amplitude at deep soils atop deep geological sediments compared to the rock sites, the maximum amplification is 1.48 times. The spectra of vertical components of various real strong motions recorded in the surrounding region are compared to the empirical vertical response spectra. The new empirical equations are used to construct a Uniform Hazard Spectra for Osijek. The ratios of vertical to horizontal Uniform Hazard Spectra are generated, examined, and compared to Eurocode 8 recommendations. All the results show that local soil and deep geology conditions have a significant impact on vertical ground motions. The results also show that for deep soils atop deep geological strata, Eurocode 8 can underestimate the vertical to horizontal spectral ratios by a factor of three for Type 2 spectra while overestimating them by a factor of two for Type 1 spectra.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Jakovlev ◽  
Sergei P. Smyshlyaev ◽  
Vener Y. Galin

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.


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