scholarly journals Development and application of Pandemic Projection Measures (PPM) for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Ren Chang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Medical Equipment ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Trial And Error ◽  
Equipment And Supplies ◽  
Error Band ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Estimate Method ◽  
Time Projection

AbstractThis study aims to provide an accessible and dynamic estimate method to project the Covid-19 trend and hopefully it will help inform policymakers to allocate the needed medical equipment and supplies for saving more lives. A set of newly developed Pandemic Projection Measures (PPM) had been successfully applied to project daily new cases across countries. During the development, numerous trial and error iterations had been performed and then improved with live data. The procedures and computations for the PPM including Uphill Index (UHI), Downhill Indices (DHI), and Error Band Projection (EBP) estimates were explained and discussed along with graphical projections. The PPM was computed with daily live data for the USA, four U.S. states (Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York), France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and China. The results indicated that with the PPM estimations, the daily projections for the future trend were robust to reflect the most plausibility, since the PPM can be updated frequently. With the most up-to-date predictions, governments should be able to monitor the values of UHI and DHI for making a better decision for “flattening the curve”. Based on the empirical data, policymakers should pay more attentions for the following two scenarios: a) When expecting an apex of the outbreak, the UHI is higher than 1.20; and b) After passing a peak day, the DHI is still larger than 0.925. The applications of the PPM estimates are not designed for a one-time projection rather than updated frequently to improve the prediction precisions. With the same concepts from the PPM computations, the peak day and the number of new deaths could be predictable if more data are collected. Like many country leaders saying, “We will win the battle of coronavirus pandemic”, the author hopes to use this easily applicable estimate method to save more lives and to win. The results, currently presented with the data on April 16 and 17, 2020, were only used to explain how to apply the PPM estimates for predictions. The outdated results should not be used to compared with today’s outbreak trend.

scholarly journals Exploring the influence of human mobility factors and spread prediction on early COVID-19 in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Zheng ◽  
Zhixiang Xie ◽  
Yaochen Qin ◽  
Kun Wang ◽  
Yan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Administrative Units

Abstract Background COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly around the world. In this context, how to accurately predict the turning point, duration and final scale of the epidemic in different countries, regions or cities is key to enabling decision makers and public health departments to formulate intervention measures and deploy resources. Methods Based on COVID-19 surveillance data and human mobility data, this study predicts the epidemic trends of national and state regional administrative units in the United States from July 27, 2020, to January 22, 2021, by constructing a SIRD model considering the factors of “lockdown” and “riot”. Results (1) The spread of the epidemic in the USA has the characteristics of geographical proximity. (2) During the lockdown period, there was a strong correlation between the number of COVID-19 infected cases and residents’ activities in recreational areas such as parks. (3) The turning point (the point of time in which active infected cases peak) of the early epidemic in the USA was predicted to occur in September. (4) Among the 10 states experiencing the most severe epidemic, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and California are all predicted to meet the turning point in a concentrated period from July to September, while the turning point in Georgia is forecast to occur in December. No turning points in Florida and Arizona were foreseen for the forecast period, with the number of infected cases still set to be growing rapidly. Conclusions The model was found accurately to predict the future trend of the epidemic and can be applied to other countries. It is worth noting that in the early stage there is no vaccine or approved pharmaceutical intervention for this disease, making the fight against the pandemic reliant on non-pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, reducing mobility, focusing on personal protection and increasing social distance remain still the most effective measures to date.

9/11 and Armageddon: the Christian Right and George W. Bush

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-50
Author(s):  
Göran Gunner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Christian Right ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Religious Leader ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Mega Church ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Jerry Falwell ◽  
High Degree

Authors from the Christian Right in the USA situate the September 11 attack on New York and Washington within God's intentions to bring America into the divine schedule for the end of the world. This is true of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, and other leading figures in the ‘Christian Coalition’. This article analyses how Christian fundamentalists assess the roles of the USA, the State of Israel, Islam, Iraq, the European Union and Russia within what they perceive to be the divine plan for the future of the world, especially against the background of ‘9/11’. It argues that the ideas of the Christian Right and of President George W. Bush coalesce to a high degree. Whereas before 9/11 many American mega-church preachers had aspirations to direct political life, after the events of that day the President assumes some of the roles of a mega-religious leader.

scholarly journals Effect of Environmental Pollutants PM2.5, CO, NO2, and O3 on the Incidence and Mortality of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Five Regions of the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 7810
Author(s):  
Sultan Ayoub Meo ◽  
Abdulelah Adnan Abukhalaf ◽  
Omar Mohammed Alessa ◽  
Abdulrahman Saad Alarifi ◽  
Waqas Sami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Environmental Pollutants ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
The Usa

In recent decades, environmental pollution has become a significant international public problem in developing and developed nations. Various regions of the USA are experiencing illnesses related to environmental pollution. This study aims to investigate the association of four environmental pollutants, including particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and Ozone (O3), with daily cases and deaths resulting from SARS-CoV-2 infection in five regions of the USA, Los Angeles, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, and Florida. The daily basis concentrations of PM2.5, CO, NO2, and O3 were documented from two metrological websites. Data were obtained from the date of the appearance of the first case of (SARS-CoV-2) in the five regions of the USA from 13 March to 31 December 2020. Regionally (Los Angeles, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, and Florida), the number of cases and deaths increased significantly along with increasing levels of PM2.5, CO, NO2 and O3 (p < 0.05), respectively. The Poisson regression results further depicted that, for each 1 unit increase in PM2.5, CO, NO2 and O3 levels, the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections significantly increased by 0.1%, 14.8%, 1.1%, and 0.1%, respectively; for each 1 unit increase in CO, NO2, and O3 levels, the number of deaths significantly increased by 4.2%, 3.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. These empirical estimates demonstrate an association between the environmental pollutants PM2.5, CO, NO2, and O3 and SARS-CoV-2 infections, showing that they contribute to the incidence of daily cases and daily deaths in the five different regions of the USA. These findings can inform health policy decisions about combatting the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in these USA regions and internationally by supporting a reduction in environmental pollution.

Ciguapas in New York: Transcultural Ethnicity and Transracialization in Dominican American Performance

2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
EMILIA MARÍA DURÁN-ALMARZA
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Identity Formation ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Dominican Women ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dominican American

The Dominican American community in New York is perhaps one of the best examples of how processes of transculturation are affecting traditional definitions of ethnic identification. Given the intense economic, social and cultural transnational exchanges between the island and the USA from the 1960s, Dominicanyorks have been challenging the illusion of homogeneity in the definition of Americanness for decades, creating transnational social networks that transcend traditional national and ethnographic boundaries. The theatrical works of Josefina Báez, a Dominican American performer living in New York, and Sherezada (Chiqui) Vicioso, a Dominican poet and playwright who lived and worked in the US metropolis for decades before moving back to the Dominican Republic, lyrically explore issues of diaspora, identity and migration and the impact these phenomena might have in the lives of migrant Dominican women. Presenting diasporic experiences from two differing but interconnected locales – New York and the Dominican Republic – these plays offer two complementary views on the ways in which ethnicity, race, social class, age and geopolitical location interact in the formation of transcultural identities, thus contributing to develop a hemispheric approach to the study of identity formation in the Americas.

Japan in Japan: notes on an aspect of the popular music record industry in Japan

Popular Music ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toru Mitsui
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Popular Music ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Record Industry ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Japanese Companies

The record and tape sales figures of the Japanese record industry have exceeded those of the industries of all other capitalist nations, except the USA, since the mid-seventies. In 1980, Japan's share amounted to 13.9 per cent of all sales in the capitalist sphere according to surveys by Billboard. The USA had 35.8 per cent, West Germany 11.6 per cent, the UK 11.6 per cent and France 7.3 per cent (Kawabata 1977, p. 22; 1982, pp. 91, 199). The output of foreign records, recorded and pressed by Japanese companies, to foreign records, pressed by Japanese companies from masters recorded by foreign companies primarily for their own consumers, has been about three to two. A good many of these foreign records are of American and European popular music, and in this field one can perceive a new and interesting tendency to promote and succeed with artists who are or were less successful in their own country. The tendency, whose background I am going to discuss here, started in the mid-seventies; one of the early examples is provided by Kiss, a New York group, which was shrewdly promoted and achieved wide popularity in Japan before succeeding nationwide in America.

Experiences of Karen refugees with traditional and western medicine in the USA

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-399
Author(s):  
Natalie R. Wodniak
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Traditional Medicine ◽  
Traditional Practices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
The Usa ◽  
English Speaking ◽  
Karen Refugees ◽  
Us Cities

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to further understand the medical experiences of Karen refugees who have been resettled to the USA. It examines the use of traditional medicine throughout the transition from Burma to the USA, as well as refugees’ experiences in the American healthcare system. This study aims to identify shortcomings in refugees’ access to preferred methods of healthcare. Design/methodology/approach Interviews were conducted with 39 Karen refugees in 3 US cities with large populations of refugees from Burma – Fort Wayne, Indiana; Amarillo, Texas; and Buffalo, New York. Participants were asked questions about their healthcare experiences in Burma and the USA, their use of traditional medicine in both countries and their satisfaction with medical care in the USA. Findings Nearly all interviewees reported using traditional medicine in Burma, but only six felt able to continue to use traditional methods in the USA. Most participants had positive experiences with healthcare in America, but 15 expressed dissatisfaction with obtaining health insurance and confusion over its coverage. Findings also indicate that refugees do not feel that traditional practices are accepted in the USA. Research limitations/implications Due to the language barrier, a phone interpreter was used for non-English-speaking participants, which may have affected proper understanding or clarity of answers. Practical implications This study brings to attention the need to improve refugee healthcare by encouraging traditional practices and assisting refugees with obtaining health insurance. Originality/value This paper identifies the importance of analyzing the accessibility of various forms of healthcare, including traditional medicine, to refugees in the USA.

Exhibition 58: Modern Architecture in England, Museum of Modern Art, 1937

2013 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 277-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Powers
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Modern Art ◽  
Modern Architecture ◽  
Museum Of Modern Art ◽  
Multiple Sequence ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
New Yorkers

Exhibition 58: Modern Architecture in England, held between 10 February and 7 March 1937 at the Museum of Modern Art in New York (MoMA), was a notable event. Amidst claims that ‘England leads the world in modern architectural activity’, the exhibition ‘amazed New Yorkers’ and equally surprised English commentators. However, it has not subsequently received any extended investigation. The present purpose is to look at it as a multiple sequence of events, involving other exhibitions, associated publications and the trajectories of individuals and institutions, through which tensions came to the surface about the definition and direction of Modernism in England and elsewhere. Such an analysis throws new light on issues such as the motives for staging the exhibition, the personnel involved and associated questions relating to the role of émigré architects in Britain and the USA, some of which have been misinterpreted in recent commentaries.Hitchcock's unequivocal claim for the importance of English Modernism at this point still arouses disbelief, and raises a question whether it can be accepted at face value or requires explaining in terms of some other hidden intention.

Sir Charles Edward Saunders, Dominion Cerealist

Genome ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 465-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Morrison
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Plant Breeding ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wheat Variety ◽  
Mass Selection ◽  
University Of Toronto ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Cereal Breeding ◽  
Central Experimental Farm ◽  
The Usa

Charles Edward Saunders was born in London, Ontario, in 1867. His father, Sir William Saunders, was the first director of the Dominion Experimental Farms (1886–1911). Charles received his B.A. with honours in science from the University of Toronto in 1888 and his Ph.D. in chemistry from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, in 1891. He attempted a career in music, his first love, from 1893 to 1902. With his father, Charles attended the 1902 International Conference on Plant Breeding and Hybridization in New York, where he learned of Mendel’s theories of inheritance and their applicability to plant breeding. When he began work in 1903 in the Division of Cereal Breeding and Experimentation at the Central Experimental Farm in Ottawa, he used the knowledge he had gained at that conference. It was Charles’s goal to achieve “fixity” in the varieties that had been bred and released using phenotypic mass selection, prior to his tenure as Cerealist. He selected four heads from the wheat variety Markham and in the winter of 1904 he performed a “chewing test” to select for gluten elasticity and colour. Seeds from two heads were chosen, and seeds from one went on to produce the variety Marquis after extensive yield trials on the Prairies. Marquis was 7 to 10 days earlier than Red Fife, the standard bread wheat of the Prairies. The earliness and tremendous yield of Marquis wheat resulted in the rapid and successful settlement of the Great Plains and countless billions of dollars in revenue to Canada. By 1923, 90% of the spring wheat in Canada and 70% in the USA was Marquis. Charles continued as Dominion Cerealist until his retirement in 1922. He was knighted in 1934, and died in 1937.

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