scholarly journals REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Care Home ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
Transmission Study ◽  
Large Household ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Home Workers

AbstractBackground and MethodsEngland entered its third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic on 6th January 2021 with the aim of reducing the daily number of deaths and pressure on healthcare services. The real-time assessment of community transmission study (REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from randomly selected people in England in order to describe patterns of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. Here, we report data from round 9a of REACT-1 for swabs collected between 4th and 13th February 2021.ResultsOut of 85,473 tested-swabs, 378 were positive. Overall weighted prevalence of infection in the community in England was 0.51%, a fall of more than two thirds since our last report (round 8) in January 2021 when 1.57% of people tested positive. We estimate a halving time of 14.6 days and a reproduction number R of 0.72, based on the difference in prevalence between the end of round 8 and the beginning of round 9. Although prevalence fell in all nine regions of England over the same period, there was greater uncertainty in the trend for North West, North East, and Yorkshire and The Humber. Prevalence fell substantially across all age groups with highest prevalence among 18- to 24-year olds at 0.89% (0.47%, 1.67%) and those aged 5 to12 years at 0.86% (0.60%, 1.24%). Large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increased prevalence. Healthcare and care home workers were more likely to test positive compared to other workers.ConclusionsThere is a strong decline in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England among the general population five to six weeks into lockdown, but prevalence remains high: at levels similar to those observed in late September 2020. Also, the number of COVID-19 cases in hospitals is higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020. The effects of easing of social distancing when we transition out of lockdown need to be closely monitored to avoid a resurgence in infections and renewed pressure on health services.

scholarly journals REACT-1 round 9 final report: Continued but slowing decline of prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 during national lockdown in England in February 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
Transmission Study ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Using Data

AbstractBackgroundEngland will start to exit its third national lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on 8th March 2021, with safe effective vaccines being rolled out rapidly against a background of emerging transmissible and immunologically novel variants of SARS-CoV-2. A subsequent increase in community prevalence of infection could delay further relaxation of lockdown if vaccine uptake and efficacy are not sufficiently high to prevent increased pressure on healthcare services.MethodsThe PCR self-swab arm of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission Study (REACT-1) estimates community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England based on random cross-sections of the population ages five and over. Here, we present results from the complete round 9 of REACT-1 comprising round 9a in which swabs were collected from 4th to 12th February 2021 and round 9b from 13th to 23rd February 2021. We also compare the results of REACT-1 round 9 to round 8, in which swabs were collected mainly from 6th January to 22nd January 2021.ResultsOut of 165,456 results for round 9 overall, 689 were positive. Overall weighted prevalence of infection in the community in England was 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%), representing a fall of over two thirds from round 8. However the rate of decline of the epidemic has slowed from 15 (13, 17) days, estimated for the period from the end of round 8 to the start of round 9, to 31 days estimated using data from round 9 alone (lower confidence limit 17 days). When comparing round 9a to 9b there were apparent falls in four regions, no apparent change in one region and apparent rises in four regions, including London where there was a suggestion of sub-regional heterogeneity in growth and decline. Smoothed prevalence maps suggest large contiguous areas of growth and decline that do not align with administrative regions.Prevalence fell by 50% or more across all age groups in round 9 compared to round 8, with prevalence (round 9) ranging from 0.21% in those aged 65 and over to 0.71% in those aged 13 to 17 years. Round 9 prevalence was highest among Pakistani participants at 2.1% compared to white participants at 0.45% and Black participants at 0.83%. There were higher adjusted odds of infection for healthcare and care home workers, for those working in public transport and those working in education, school, nursery or childcare and lower adjusted odds for those not required to work outside the home.ConclusionsCommunity prevalence of swab-positivity has declined markedly between January and February 2021 during lockdown in England, but remains high; the rate of decline has slowed in the most recent period, with a suggestion of pockets of growth. Continued adherence to social distancing and public health measures is required so that infection rates fall to much lower levels. This will help to ensure that the benefits of the vaccination roll-out programme in England are fully realised.

scholarly journals Molecular gas in the northern nucleus of Mrk 273: Physical and chemical properties of the disc and its outflow

2018 ◽  
Vol 617 ◽  
pp. A20 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Aladro ◽  
S. König ◽  
S. Aalto ◽  
E. González-Alfonso ◽  
N. Falstad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Far Infrared ◽  
Molecular Gas ◽  
Dense Gas ◽  
Dynamical Mass ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
Dust Temperature ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Physical And Chemical

Aiming to characterise the properties of the molecular gas in the ultra-luminous infrared galaxy Mrk 273 and its outflow, we used the NOEMA interferometer to image the dense-gas molecular tracers HCN, HCO+, HNC, HOC+ and HC3N at ∼86 GHz and ∼256 GHz with angular resolutions of 4ʺ̣9 × 4ʺ̣5 (∼3.7 × 3.4 kpc) and 0ʺ̣61 × 0ʺ̣55 (∼460 × 420 pc). We also modelled the flux of several H2O lines observed with Herschel using a radiative transfer code that includes excitation by collisions and far-infrared photons. The disc of the Mrk 273 north nucleus has two components with decoupled kinematics. The gas in the outer parts (R ∼ 1.5 kpc) rotates with a south-east to north-west direction, while in the inner disc (R ∼ 300 pc) follows a north-east to south-west rotation. The central 300 pc, which hosts a compact starburst region, is filled with dense and warm gas, and contains a dynamical mass of (4 −5) × 109 M⊙, a luminosity of L′HCN = (3–4) × 108 K km s−1 pc2, and a dust temperature of 55 K. At the very centre, a compact core with R ∼ 50 pc has a luminosity of LIR = 4 × 1011 L⊙ (30% of the total infrared luminosity), and a dust temperature of 95 K. The core is expanding at low velocities ∼50–100 km s−1, probably affected by the outflowing gas. We detect the blue-shifted component of the outflow, while the red-shifted counterpart remains undetected in our data. Its cold and dense phase reaches fast velocities up to ∼1000 km s−1, while the warm outflowing gas has more moderate maximum velocities of ∼600 km s−1. The outflow is compact, being detected as far as 460 pc from the centre in the northern direction, and has a mass of dense gas ≤8 × 108 M⊙. The difference between the position angles of the inner disc (∼70°) and the outflow (∼10°) indicates that the outflow is likely powered by the AGN, and not by the starburst. Regarding the chemistry in Mrk 273, we measure an extremely low HCO+/HOC+ ratio of 10 ± 5 in the inner disc of Mrk 273.

scholarly journals High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Random Samples ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
National Prevalence ◽  
Representative Samples

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 is quantifying prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among random samples of the population in England based on PCR testing of self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report results from the fifth round of observations for swabs collected from the 18th September to 5th October 2020. This report updates and should be read alongside our round 5 interim report.MethodsRepresentative samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 175,000 people at each round. Prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimation of reproduction number (R) and time trends between and within rounds using exponential growth or decay models.Results175,000 volunteers tested across England between 18th September and 5th October. Findings show a national prevalence of 0.60% (95% confidence interval 0.55%, 0.71%) and doubling of the virus every 29 (17, 84) days in England corresponding to an estimated national R of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27). These results correspond to 1 in 170 people currently swab-positive for the virus and approximately 45,000 new infections each day. At regional level, the highest prevalence is in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North East with strongest regional growth in North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands.ConclusionRapid growth has led to high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England, with highest rates in the North of England. Prevalence has increased in all age groups, including those at highest risk. Improved compliance with existing policy and, as necessary, additional interventions are required to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19.

scholarly journals Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Ward ◽  
Christina J Atchison ◽  
Matthew Whitaker ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Joshua Elliott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Test Performance ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Population Sample ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Disadvantaged Communities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
South Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Home Workers

Background England, UK has experienced a large outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection. As in USA and elsewhere, disadvantaged communities have been disproportionately affected. Methods National REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) seroprevalence study using self-administered lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) test for IgG among a random population sample of 100,000 adults over 18 years in England, 20 June to 13 July 2020. Results Completed questionnaires were available for 109,076 participants, yielding 5,544 IgG positive results and adjusted (for test performance), re-weighted (for sampling) prevalence of 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8, 6.1). Highest prevalence was in London (13.0% [12.3, 13.6]), among people of Black or Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicity (17.3% [15.8, 19.1] and 11.9% [11.0, 12.8] respectively) and those aged 18-24 years (7.9% [7.3, 8.5]). Care home workers with client-facing roles had adjusted odds ratio of 3.1 (2.5, 3.8) compared with non-essential workers. One third (32.2%, [31.0-33.4]) of antibody positive individuals reported no symptoms. Among symptomatic cases, the majority (78.8%) reported symptoms during the peak of the epidemic in England in March (31.3%) and April (47.5%) 2020. We estimate that 3.36 million (3.21, 3.51) people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in England to end June 2020, with an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.90% (0.86, 0.94). Conclusion The pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England disproportionately affected ethnic minority groups and health and care home workers. The higher risk of infection in these groups may explain, at least in part, their increased risk of hospitalisation and mortality from COVID-19.

scholarly journals REACT-1 round 8 interim report: SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the initial stages of the third national lockdown in England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Care Home ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Extreme Pressure ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
The Third ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Time Space

AbstractBackgroundHigh prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in many northern hemisphere populations is causing extreme pressure on healthcare services and leading to high numbers of fatalities. Even though safe and effective vaccines are being deployed in many populations, the majority of those most at-risk of severe COVID-19 will not be protected until late spring, even in countries already at a more advanced stage of vaccine deployment.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission study-1 (REACT-1) obtains throat and nose swabs from between 120,000 and 180,000 people in the community in England at approximately monthly intervals. Round 8a of REACT-1 mainly covers a period from 6th January 2021 to 15th January 2021. Swabs are tested for SARS-CoV-2 virus and patterns of swab-positivity are described over time, space and with respect to individual characteristics. We compare swab-positivity prevalence from REACT-1 with mobility data based on the GPS locations of individuals using the Facebook mobile phone app. We also compare results from round 8a with those from round 7 in which swabs were collected from 13th November to 24th November (round 7a) and 25th November to 3rd December 2020 (round 7b).ResultsIn round 8a, we found 1,962 positives from 142,909 swabs giving a weighted prevalence of 1.58% (95% CI, 1.49%, 1.68%). Using a constant growth model, we found no strong evidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period; rather, based on data from a limited number of days, prevalence may have started to rise at the end of round 8a. Facebook mobility data showed a marked decrease in activity at the end of December 2020, followed by a rise at the start of the working year in January 2021. Between round 7b and round 8a, prevalence increased in all adult age groups, more than doubling to 0.94% (0.83%, 1.07%) in those aged 65 and over. Large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Black and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increased prevalence. Both healthcare and care home workers, and other key workers, had increased odds of swab-positivity compared to other workers.ConclusionDuring the initial 10 days of the third COVID-19 lockdown in England in January 2021, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was very high with no evidence of decline. Until prevalence in the community is reduced substantially, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.

scholarly journals REACT-1 round 8 final report: high average prevalence with regional heterogeneity of trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community in England during January 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Deprived Neighbourhoods ◽  
East Midlands

AbstractIn early January 2021, England entered its third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic to reduce numbers of deaths and pressure on healthcare services, while rapidly rolling out vaccination to healthcare workers and those most at risk of severe disease and death. REACT-1 is a survey of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the community in England, based on repeated cross-sectional samples of the population. Between 6th and 22nd January 2021, out of 167,642 results, 2,282 were positive giving a weighted national prevalence of infection of 1.57% (95% CI, 1.49%, 1.66%). The R number nationally over this period was estimated at 0.98 (0.92, 1.04). Prevalence remained high throughout, but with suggestion of a decline at the end of the study period. The average national trend masked regional heterogeneity, with robustly decreasing prevalence in one region (South West) and increasing prevalence in another (East Midlands). Overall prevalence at regional level was highest in London at 2.83% (2.53%, 3.16%). Although prevalence nationally was highest in the low-risk 18 to 24 year old group at 2.44% (1.96%, 3.03%), it was also high in those over 65 years who are most at risk, at 0.93% (0.82%, 1.05%). Large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Black and Asian ethnicity were all associated with higher levels of infections compared to smaller households, less deprived neighbourhoods and other ethnicities. Healthcare and care home workers, and other key workers, were more likely to test positive compared to other workers. If sustained lower prevalence is not achieved rapidly in England, pressure on healthcare services and numbers of COVID-19 deaths will remain unacceptably high.

scholarly journals Variation of Cancer Incidence between and within GRELL Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 9262
Author(s):  
Paolo Contiero ◽  
Giovanna Tagliabue ◽  
Gemma Gatta ◽  
Jaume Galceran ◽  
Jean-Luc Bulliard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
Latin Language ◽  
The Difference

Variation in cancer incidence between countries and groups of countries has been well studied. However cancer incidence is linked to risk factors that may vary within countries, and may subsist in localized geographic areas. In this study we investigated between- and within-country variation in the incidence of all cancers combined for countries belonging to the Group for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration in Latin Language Countries (GRELL). We hypothesized that investigation at the micro-level (circumscribed regions and local cancer registry areas) would reveal incidence variations not evident at the macro level and allow identification of cancer incidence hotspots for research, public health, and to fight social inequalities. Data for all cancers diagnosed in 2008–2012 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Vol XI. Incidence variation within a country or region was quantified as r/R, defined as the difference between the highest and lowest incidence rates for cancer registries within a country/region (r), divided by the incidence rate for the entire country/region × 100. We found that the area with the highest male incidence had an ASRw 4.3 times higher than the area with the lowest incidence. The area with the highest female incidence had an ASRw 3.3 times higher than the area with the lowest incidence. Areas with the highest male ASRws were Azores (Portugal), Florianopolis (Brazil), Metropolitan France, north Spain, Belgium, and north-west and north-east Italy. Areas with the highest female ASRws were Florianopolis (Brazil), Belgium, north-west Italy, north-east Italy, central Italy, Switzerland and Metropolitan France. Our analysis has shown that cancer incidence varies markedly across GRELL countries but also within several countries: the presence of several areas with high cancer incidence suggests the presence of area-specific risk factors that deserve further investigation.

scholarly journals Prevalence of Intestinal Parasites among Rural Residents of Takestan in North-West of Iran

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khadijeh TAHERKHANI ◽  
Ameneh BARIKANI ◽  
Mojtaba SHAHNAZI ◽  
Mehrzad SARAEI
Keyword(s):  
Sex Education ◽  
Intestinal Parasites ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Parasitic Infections ◽  
P Value ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Laboratory Findings ◽  
North West ◽  
The Difference

Background: Intestinal parasites are one of the health challenges in developing countries. Decreasing the prevalence of intestinal parasitic infections (IPIs) is one of the main aims of health services in these countries. This study was designed to determine the current status of IPIs in rural residents of Takestan a town located in North West of Iran. Methods: A total of 2280 rural residents of Takestan were randomly selected. Data were collected through questionnaire by interviews and laboratory findings obtained by microscopic examination of stool sample including wet smear and formalin ethyl-acetate concentration. A P value <0.05 was considered significant, statistically. Results: In total, 8.7% (199/2280) of participants were positive for at least one intestinal parasite. The prevalence of polyparasitism was 0.7% in study population. Hymenolepis nana was the only helminthic infection which was detected (1/2280). Blastocystis, Entamoeba coli, and Giardia lamblia were the most common IPIs with prevalence of 3.6%, 2.9%, and 1.6%, respectively. Statistically, the prevalence of IPIs showed significant differences among villages (P<0.01) and age groups (P<0.001), and also habit of eating raw vegetables (P<0.005), whereas, the difference was insignificant in terms of sex, education level, and occupation. Conclusion: The prevalence of IPIs in rural residents of the study area is considerably low and this reduction was very impressive about helminthic infections.

Age Differences in Eye Movements During Reading: Degenerative Problems or Compensatory Strategy?

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 297-311
Author(s):  
José David Moreno ◽  
José A. León ◽  
Lorena A. M. Arnal ◽  
Juan Botella
Keyword(s):  
Eye Movements ◽  
Eye Movement ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Aging Effects ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Sentence Reading ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Eye Movements During Reading

Abstract. We report the results of a meta-analysis of 22 experiments comparing the eye movement data obtained from young ( Mage = 21 years) and old ( Mage = 73 years) readers. The data included six eye movement measures (mean gaze duration, mean fixation duration, total sentence reading time, mean number of fixations, mean number of regressions, and mean length of progressive saccade eye movements). Estimates were obtained of the typified mean difference, d, between the age groups in all six measures. The results showed positive combined effect size estimates in favor of the young adult group (between 0.54 and 3.66 in all measures), although the difference for the mean number of fixations was not significant. Young adults make in a systematic way, shorter gazes, fewer regressions, and shorter saccadic movements during reading than older adults, and they also read faster. The meta-analysis results confirm statistically the most common patterns observed in previous research; therefore, eye movements seem to be a useful tool to measure behavioral changes due to the aging process. Moreover, these results do not allow us to discard either of the two main hypotheses assessed for explaining the observed aging effects, namely neural degenerative problems and the adoption of compensatory strategies.

A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland

2000 ◽  
pp. 35-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Dawes ◽  
Bjørn Thomassen ◽  
T.I. Hauge Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Iron Formation ◽  
Banded Iron Formation ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Volcanic Province ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Surficial Deposits ◽  
North Greenland

NOTE: This article was published in a former series of GEUS Bulletin. Please use the original series name when citing this article, for example: Dawes, P. R., Thomassen, B., & Andersson, T. H. (2000). A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland. Geology of Greenland Survey Bulletin, 186, 35-41. https://doi.org/10.34194/ggub.v186.5213 _______________ Mapping and regional geological studies in northern Greenland were carried out during the project Kane Basin 1999 (see Dawes et al. 2000, this volume). During ore geological studies in Washington Land by one of us (B.T.), finds of erratics of banded iron formation (BIF) directed special attention to the till, glaciofluvial and fluvial sediments. This led to the discovery that in certain parts of Daugaard-Jensen Land and Washington Land volcanic rocks form a common component of the surficial deposits, with particularly colourful, red porphyries catching the eye. The presence of BIF is interesting but not altogether unexpected since BIF erratics have been reported from southern Hall Land just to the north-east (Kelly & Bennike 1992) and such rocks crop out in the Precambrian shield of North-West Greenland to the south (Fig. 1; Dawes 1991). On the other hand, the presence of volcanic erratics was unexpected and stimulated the work reported on here.

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