scholarly journals The age-stratified analytical model for the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic

Author(s):  
Felix Mairanowski ◽  
Denis Below

The previously developed ASILV model for calculating epidemic spread under conditions of lockdown and mass vaccination was modified to analyse the intensity of COVID-19 infection growth in the allocated age groups. Comparison of the results of calculations of the epidemic spread, as well as the values of the seven-day incidence values with the corresponding observation data, shows their good correspondence for each of the selected age groups. The greatest influence on the overall spread of the epidemic is in the 20-40 age groups. The relatively low level of vaccination and the high intensity of contact in these age groups contributes to the emergence of new waves of the epidemic, which is especially active when the virus mutates and the lockdown conditions are relaxed. The intensity of the epidemic in the 90+ age group has some peculiarities compared to other groups, which may be explained by differences in contact patterns among individuals in this age group compared to others. Approximate ratios for estimating mortality as a function of the intensity of infection for individual age groups are provided. The proposed stratified ASILV model by age group will allow more detailed and accurate prediction of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, including when new, more transmissible versions of the virus mutate and emerge.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.


2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-144
Author(s):  
C. T. Wolmarans ◽  
K. N. De Kock

Urinary schistosomiasis is a disease caused by the worm parasite Schistosoma haematobium. Approximately 3 million people of whom the majority are children, staying in the sub-tropical areas of the Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Kwa-Zulu-Natal provinces, are infected with this parasite. Although the initial pathology of heavy infections is limited to blood in the urine, long term infections may lead to, amongst others, hydronephrosis and cancer of the squamous epithelial tissue of the bladder.Investigations that aim to collect information regarding the general epidemiology of schistosomiasis in a specific area, as well as the prevalence and intensity of infection, are primarily based on the presence of schistosome eggs in the urine. The results of these studies which are mainly done by making use of a single urine sample collected between 10:00 and 14:00 are often used as criteria to express the degree of morbidity, the prevalence and intensity of infection, worm load burden, as well as the presence of genital lesions and urinary tract disease in females. This is, however, only possible if the number of eggs excreted at a specific time is constant. Although there are serological techniques available to diagnose urinary schistosomiasis, parasitological methods are in spite of the above mentioned imperfections, still preferred for large scale epidemiological studies because of its cost effectiveness. It is however, of paramount importance to collect more information regarding the patterns of egg excretion as it occurs in males, as well as females in different age groups. This study was done in the Mamitwa Village in the Limpopo Province. Urine samples were collected at 8:30, 10:30, 12:30, 14:30 and 16:30 from schistosome positive males and females in the 4-9, 10-14 and 15-22 age groups. This was done for 6 consecutive days in the 4-9 and 10-14 year age groups and for four consecutive days in the 15-22 year age group. The eggs in each sample were separated from the urine by means of filtration and fixed with 4% formaldehyde after which they were counted. The number of eggs were expressed as the number per 10ml urine and categorized as not infected (no eggs per 10ml), lightly infected (1-50 eggs per 10ml), mildly infected (51-150 eggs per 10 ml) and heavily infected (>150 eggs per 10ml). The results were expressed as percentage per time of collection and statistically analysed by making use of Anova- and Tukey tests. Although there was significant variation in the results when the different age groups in both the male and females were compared, a few constant tendencies were evident. In spite of the fact that only schistosome positive individuals were selected for this investi-gation and that a number of urine samples were collected from each individual over a number of days, false negatives were found at each collection period for all the age groups in both sexes, a phenomenon that was also true with regard to the intensity of infection. The number of false negatives was significantly lower for the females in the 4-9 year age group at the 12:30 collection period. This was also true for the females in the 10-14 year age group between 10:30 and 12:30 but no significant results could be found at the remaining groups. When comparing the percentages of infection in all the intensity categories for every collection period, urine collected from 10:30 onwards revealed the most true positive cases, while this was the case from 8:30 at the 15-22 year age groups. The fact that the 15-22 age group had the most false positives was expected because it corresponds with the decrease in intensity, as well as the prevalence of infection with an increase in age. The peak in the intensity of infection found in the 10-14 year age groups is probably due to numerous contacts with schistosomiasis infested water at this stage. The most mildly infected females in the 4-9 year age group were found between 10:30 and 14:30 while the most heavily infected individuals in this group were found between 12:30 and 14:30. No peaks were recorded for the males in this age group. With regard to the 10-14 year age group, a peak in the mildly infected females was evident between 10:30 and 14:30 and between 12:30 and 16:30 for the heavily infected category. A peak in infection for the heavily infected category for males in this age group was found between 10:30 and 16:30. No such peak was found in the females in the 15-22 year age group while there was only a peak in the heavily infected category in the males of this age group. From this study it can be concluded that in spite of numerous urine collections from infected individuals 100% prevalence could not be found in any of the groups during any of the collection periods. It was further evident that the general accepted time of a peak in excretion between 12:00 and 14:00 is not necessarily the best to establish the prevalence of infection in a community, especially when such an investigation also takes the intensity of infection into account. It is further evident that more urine samples at different times should be collected in order to increase the accuracy of the results.


1984 ◽  
Vol 51 (01) ◽  
pp. 037-041 ◽  
Author(s):  
K M Weerasinghe ◽  
M F Scully ◽  
V V Kakkar

SummaryCollagen mediated platelet aggregation caused -5.6 ± 6.7% inhibition and +39.1 ± 15.2% potentiation of prekallikrein activation in plasma from normal healthy volunteers between 20–40 and 50–65 years of age, respectively (n = 15, p <0.01). The amouns of platelet factor-four (PF4) released in the two groups were not significantly different. Collagen treatment in the presence of indomethacin caused +11.5 ± 3.6% and +59.6 ± 19.5% potentiation in the 20–40 and 50–65 age groups respectively (p <0.02). Adrenaline mediated platelet aggregation caused -55.2 ± 7.1% and -35.2 ± 8.3% inhibition in the 20–40 and 50–65 age groups, respectively. Collagen treatment of platelet-deficient-plasma and platelet-rich-plasma in EDTA also caused potentiation of prekallikrein activation.The results indicate that the observed degree of prekallikrein activation after platelet aggregation is a net result of the inhibitory effect of PF4 and the potentiatory effect of activated platelets. The potentiatory effect was greater after collagen treatment as compared to adrenaline treatment, and in the 50–65 age group as compared to the 20–40 age group.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mashkoor Ahmad Lone ◽  
Dr. P. Ganesan

The practice of placing deprived children having least or no emotional and material resources, in orphanages has since long been prevailing in socio -economically poor Asian countries. A sample of 30 children residing in orphanage in district Anantnag in the age group of 13-18 years was selected for the present study. Most of the children were found socially and psychologically disturbed. As per Indian Academy Paediatrics (IAP) classification with respect to weight for age the condition was not bad that as approximately 67% percent of the children were found to be normal. In the same way height for age as per Waterloo’s classification shown that more than half of the children were normal. On clinical examination approximately 47% of children were normal, while as rest were suffering from dispigmentation of hair, moon face, xerosis of skin cheilosis, magenta tongue, spongy bleeding gums, oedema, conjuctival xerosis, and mottled dental enamel. The findings indicated that nutritional intake was deficient for all nutrients when compared to, Recommended Daily Allowances Chart (RDA) for all age groups which may be linked to poor planning of menus in orphanages.


Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verda Tunalıgil ◽  
Gülsen Meral ◽  
Ahmet Katı ◽  
Dhrubajyoti Chattopadhyay ◽  
Amit Kumar Mandal

Abstract:: Epigenetic changes in COVID-19 host, a pandemic-causing infectious agent that globally incapacitated communities in varying complexities and capacities are discussed, proposing an analogy that epigenetic processes contribute to disease severity and elevate the risk for death from infection. Percentages of hospitalization, with and without intensive care, in the presence of diseases with increased ACE2 expression, were compared, based on the best available data. Further analysis compared two different age groups, 19-64 and ≥65 years of age. The COVID-19 disease is observed to be the most severe in the 65-and-higher-age group with preexisting chronic conditions. This observational study is a non-experimental empirical investigation of the outcomes of COVID-19 in different patient groups. Results are promising for conducting clinical trials with intervention groups. To ultimately succeed in disease prevention, researchers and clinicians must integrate epigenetic mechanisms to generate valid prescriptions for global well-being.


Author(s):  
Daniel Stark ◽  
Stefania Di Gangi ◽  
Caio Victor Sousa ◽  
Pantelis Nikolaidis ◽  
Beat Knechtle

Though there are exhaustive data about participation, performance trends, and sex differences in performance in different running disciplines and races, no study has analyzed these trends in stair climbing and tower running. The aim of the present study was therefore to investigate these trends in tower running. The data, consisting of 28,203 observations from 24,007 climbers between 2014 and 2019, were analyzed. The effects of sex and age, together with the tower characteristics (i.e., stairs and floors), were examined through a multivariable statistical model with random effects on intercept, at climber’s level, accounting for repeated measurements. Men were faster than women in each age group (p < 0.001 for ages ≤69 years, p = 0.003 for ages > 69 years), and the difference in performance stayed around 0.20 km/h, with a minimum of 0.17 at the oldest age. However, women were able to outperform men in specific situations: (i) in smaller buildings (<600 stairs), for ages between 30 and 59 years and >69 years; (ii) in higher buildings (>2200 stairs), for age groups <20 years and 60–69 years; and (iii) in buildings with 1600–2200 stairs, for ages >69 years. In summary, men were faster than women in this specific running discipline; however, women were able to outperform men in very specific situations (i.e., specific age groups and specific numbers of stairs).


1975 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Pfender ◽  
J. Schafer

An improved analytical model for the description of the anode contraction zone of a high intensity arc takes radiation effects into account. The conservation equations for the anode contraction zone and the adjacent undisturbed arc column are solved numerically with a relaxation method. Results for atmospheric pressure argon arcs at three different currents demonstrate that radiation losses reduce temperature peaks substantially and, at the same time, provide a smooth matching of arc column and contraction zone solutions. Although the model seems to be adequate for a large portion of the anode contraction zone, the results indicate that refinements of the model are necessary for the region close to the anode, in particular, deviations from LTE have to be taken into account.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-il Kim ◽  
Eunjeong Ji ◽  
Jung-yeon Choi ◽  
Sun-wook Kim ◽  
Soyeon Ahn ◽  
...  

AbstractWe analyzed the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) database to determine the trends of hypertension treatment and control rate in Korea over the past 10 years. In addition, we tried to investigate the effect of chronic medical conditions on hypertension management. We investigated the hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control rate from 2008 to 2017. KNHANES, which uses a stratified multistage sampling design, is a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey conducted by the Korean government. A total of 59,282 adults (≥ 20 years) were included, which was representative of the total population of around 40 million Koreans per year. The mean age was 50.7 ± 16.4 years and 42.6% were male. The prevalence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and obesity significantly increased over the 10 years. During this period, the hypertension treatment and control rate significantly improved. Hypertension treatment rate was significantly lower in the younger age group compared to the older age group, but the control rate among the treated patients was not significantly different between age groups. The treatment and control rates of hypertension were higher in patients with multimorbidity, which implies that it has a favorable effect on the treatment and control of hypertension. Hypertension treatment and control rate have improved over the past 10 years. The higher treatment and control rate in patients with multimorbidity suggest that the more aggressive surveillance might be associated with the improvement of hypertension treatment and control rate in Korea.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Beatrice Zanella ◽  
Angela Bechini ◽  
Benedetta Bonito ◽  
Marco Del Riccio ◽  
Alessandra Ninci ◽  
...  

Background: Varicella is a well-known infectious disease that can have severe complications, also in young children. The Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) program was introduced in Tuscany (Italy) in 2003, with a two-dose vaccine schedule given to children between their 13th and 15th month, and at 5–6 years old, as a monovalent for varicella (V) or tetravalent (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMRV)) formulation. Although varicella notifications have dramatically fallen in the last two decades, varicella disease underreporting remains a challenge. Methods: A qualitative immunoenzymatic test (ELISA) was used to measure the presence of anti-varicella antibodies in 165 sera of subjects aged 1–18 years residing in the province of Florence (Italy). Information regarding the anamnestic and vaccination status (including disease notification) was also collected. Results: Our study showed an overall varicella seropositivity of 75.8% (reaching the maximum at 96.3% in the 15–18 years age group). We found that varicella disease notification had been recorded for only 7/165 subjects; however, since 42/165 recalled having had the disease, we can hypothesize that some of them must have been underreported. Furthermore, our study showed that the presence of antibodies after the varicella vaccination remained over time, lasting up to 12 years. Conclusions: Although varicella seroprevalence is <95% in almost all our age groups (except for the 15–18 years age group), our data are encouraging and reflect the success of the introduction of the UVV program and the vaccination campaigns promoted in the Tuscany region.


Author(s):  
Iván Area ◽  
Henrique Lorenzo ◽  
Pedro J. Marcos ◽  
Juan J. Nieto

In this work we look at the past in order to analyze four key variables after one year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Galicia (NW Spain): new infected, hospital admissions, intensive care unit admissions and deceased. The analysis is presented by age group, comparing at each stage the percentage of the corresponding group with its representation in the society. The time period analyzed covers 1 March 2020 to 1 April 2021, and includes the influence of the B.1.1.7 lineage of COVID-19 which in April 2021 was behind 90% of new cases in Galicia. It is numerically shown how the pandemic affects the age groups 80+, 70+ and 60+, and therefore we give information about how the vaccination process could be scheduled and hints at why the pandemic had different effects in different territories.


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