scholarly journals Evaluation of Vaccination Strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Singh ◽  
Carmen Olmedo Luceron ◽  
Aurora Limia Sanchez ◽  
Miguel Guzman-Merino ◽  
Christian Duran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Comprehensive Description ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Third ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Impact

● Background: This work analyses the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area starting the 27th of December 2020 and ending in the Summer of 2021. The predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. ● Methods: We briefly summarize the different interconnected models of EpiGraph and then we provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model. We evaluate different vaccination strategies, and we validate the simulator by comparing the simulation results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third wave. ● Results: We consider the different COVID-19 propagation scenarios on a social environment consisting of the ten largest cities in the Madrid metropolitan area, with 5 million individuals. The results show that the strategy that fares best is to vaccinate the elderly first with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate and the number of deaths by an additional 6% and 3% with respect to vaccinating the elderly first at the interval between doses recommended by the vaccine producer. ● Conclusion: Results show that prioritizing the vaccination of young individuals would significantly increase the number of deaths. On the other hand, spacing out the first and second dose by 56 days would result in a slight reduction in the number of infections and deaths. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation.

Render unto Caesar Just a Little Bit Longer: The Relationship between Constitutional Reforms and Executive Survival

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Tofigh Maboudi ◽  
Ghazal P. Nadi ◽  
Todd A. Eisenstadt
Keyword(s):  
Term Limits ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
The Third ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Since the third wave of democracy, term limits have become a popular fixture of most constitutions intended to constrain the executive. Yet, recent constitutional reforms around the world show that presidents seeking re-election sometimes overturn the entire constitutional order to extend their power. What is the impact of these constitutional manipulations on the longevity of the executive in office? Using survival analysis of all political leaders and national constitutions from 1875 to 2015, this article demonstrates, for the first time, that when ‘authoritarian-aspiring’ presidents remove constitutional term limits, they increase their stay in office by more than 40%. Our findings contrast with a widely held position in the comparative authoritarian literature suggesting that dictators survive longer under institutional constraints. On the contrary, we argue that by removing constitutional barriers, rulers consolidate more power at the expense of their most ambitious allies and can stay in power longer.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of widespread respirator use in curtailing COVID-19 transmission in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 210699
Author(s):  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
James R. Knitter ◽  
Lucas Marinacci ◽  
Matthew H. Bonds ◽  
Abba B. Gumel
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Respiratory Protection ◽  
The Third ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Baseline Levels ◽  
The Impact

Dynamic models are used to assess the impact of three types of face masks (cloth masks, surgical/procedure masks and respirators) in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We showed that the pandemic would have failed to establish in the USA if a nationwide mask mandate, based on using respirators with moderately high compliance, had been implemented during the first two months of the pandemic. The other mask types would fail to prevent the pandemic from becoming established. When mask usage compliance is low to moderate, respirators are far more effective in reducing disease burden. Using data from the third wave, we showed that the epidemic could be eliminated in the USA if at least 40% of the population consistently wore respirators in public. Surgical masks can also lead to elimination, but requires compliance of at least 55%. Daily COVID-19 mortality could be eliminated in the USA by June or July 2021 if 95% of the population opted for either respirators or surgical masks from the beginning of the third wave. We showed that the prospect of effective control or elimination of the pandemic using mask-based strategy is greatly enhanced if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that significantly reduce the baseline community transmission. By slightly modifying the model to include the effect of a vaccine against COVID-19 and waning vaccine-derived and natural immunity, this study shows that the waning of such immunity could trigger multiple new waves of the pandemic in the USA. The number, severity and duration of the projected waves depend on the quality of mask type used and the level of increase in the baseline levels of other NPIs used in the community during the onset of the third wave of the pandemic in the USA. Specifically, no severe fourth or subsequent wave of the pandemic will be recorded in the USA if surgical masks or respirators are used, particularly if the mask use strategy is combined with an increase in the baseline levels of other NPIs. This study further emphasizes the role of human behaviour towards masking on COVID-19 burden, and highlights the urgent need to maintain a healthy stockpile of highly effective respiratory protection, particularly respirators, to be made available to the general public in times of future outbreaks or pandemics of respiratory diseases that inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden on the population.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Variants on the Second Wave in India and Subsequent Discretion of Possibilities of the Third Wave

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-126
Author(s):  
Sudarshan Ramaswamy ◽  
Meera Dhuria ◽  
Sumedha M. Joshi ◽  
Deepa H Velankar
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Insight Into

Introduction: Epidemiological comprehension of the COVID-19 situation in India can be of great help in early prediction of any such indications in other countries and possibilities of the third wave in India as well. It is essential to understand the impact of variant strains in the perspective of the rise in daily cases during the second wave – Whether the rise in cases witnessed is due to the reinfections or the surge is dominated by emergence of mutants/variants and reasons for the same. Overall objective of this study is to predict early epidemiological indicators which can potentially lead to COVID-19 third wave in India. Methodology: We analyzed both the first and second waves of COVID-19 in India and using the data of India’s SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we segregated the impact of the Older Variant (OV) and the other major variants (VOI / VOC).  Applying Kermack–McKendrick SIR model to the segregated data progression of the epidemic in India was plotted in the form of proportion of people infected. An equation to explain herd immunity thresholds was generated and further analyzed to predict the possibilities of the third wave. Results: Considerable difference in ate of progression of the first and second wave was seen. The study also ascertains that the rate of infection spread is higher in Delta variant and is expected to have a higher threshold (>2 times) for herd immunity as compared to the OV. Conclusion: Likelihood of the occurrence of the third wave seems unlikely based on the current analysis of the situation, however the possibilities cannot be ruled out. Understanding the epidemiological details of the first and second wave helped in understanding the focal points responsible for the surge in cases during the second wave and has given further insight into the future.

scholarly journals Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose

PLoS Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. e3001211
Author(s):  
Seyed M. Moghadas ◽  
Thomas N. Vilches ◽  
Kevin Zhang ◽  
Shokoofeh Nourbakhsh ◽  
Pratha Sah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Program Effectiveness ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The United States ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Supply And Distribution ◽  
The Impact

Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses.

scholarly journals The Foucault Effect in Organization Studies

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sverre Raffnsøe ◽  
Andrea Mennicken ◽  
Peter Miller
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
The Self ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Linguistic Turn ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Organizational Scholarship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Since the establishment of Organization Studies in 1980, Michel Foucault’s oeuvre has had a remarkable and continuing influence on its field. This article traces the different ways in which organizational scholars have engaged with Foucault’s writings over the past thirty years or so. We identify four overlapping waves of influence. Drawing on Foucault’s Discipline and Punish, the first wave focused on the impact of discipline, and techniques of surveillance and subjugation, on organizational practices and power relations. Part of a much wider ‘linguistic’ turn in the second half of the twentieth century, the second wave led to a focus on discourses as intermediaries that condition ways of viewing and acting. This wave drew mainly on Foucault’s early writings on language and discourse. The third wave was inspired by Foucault’s seminal lectures on governmentality towards the end of the 1970s. Here, an important body of international research investigating governmental technologies operating on subjects as free persons in sites such as education, accounting, medicine and psychiatry emerged. The fourth and last wave arose out of a critical engagement with earlier Foucauldian organizational scholarship and sought to develop a more positive conception of subjectivity. This wave draws in particular on Foucault’s work on asceticism and techniques of the self towards the end of his life. Drawing on Deleuze and Butler, the article conceives the Foucault effect in organization studies as an immanent cause and a performative effect. We argue for the need to move beyond the tired dichotomies between discipline and autonomy, compliance and resistance, power and freedom that, at least to some extent, still hamper organization studies. We seek to overcome such dichotomies by further pursuing newly emerging lines of Foucauldian research that investigate processes of organizing, calculating and economizing characterized by a differential structuring of freedom, performative and indirect agency.

scholarly journals One wave or another in the pandemic: Psychological well-being during the third COVID-19 wave

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michela Marchetti ◽  
Daniele Gatti ◽  
Lucio Inguscio ◽  
Giuliana Mazzoni
Keyword(s):  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Mental States ◽  
Protective Role ◽  
Perceived Usefulness ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

After a year from the emergence of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on February 2020, between March and May 2021 Italy faced its third wave of infections. Previous studies have shown that in the first phases of the pandemic certain factors had a protective role against distress. However, as the months in the pandemic went by, people’s feelings and experiences significantly changed and little is known regarding the role of possible protective variables after prolonged pandemic situations. In the present study we aimed to investigate the impact of several behavioral variables on individuals’ mental states and emotions experienced during the third COVID-19 wave in Italy. 454 Italian adults were asked questions regarding the intensity of mental states and emotions experienced, the perceived usefulness of lockdown, the feeling of living a normal life, and the coping strategies implemented to face the pandemic. Using a data driven approach, we calculated the best model on the participation of each factor in explaining participants’ emotions and mental states. Our findings indicate that the presence of acceptance attitudes toward restrictive measures and the implementation of recreational activities helped participants face a prolonged pandemic with positive emotions.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of widespread respirator use in curtailing COVID-19 transmission in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calistus N Ngonghala ◽  
James R Knitter ◽  
Lucas Marinacci ◽  
Matthew H Bonds ◽  
Abba B Gumel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Respiratory Protection ◽  
The Third ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Dynamic models are used to assess the impact of three types of face masks − cloth masks, surgical/procedure masks and respirators − in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We showed that the pandemic would have failed to establish in the US if a nationwide mask mandate, based on using respirators with moderately-high compliance, had been implemented during the first two months of the pandemic. The other mask types would fail to prevent the pandemic from becoming established. When mask usage compliance is low to moderate, respirators are far more effective in reducing disease burden. Using data from the third wave, we showed that the epidemic could be eliminated in the US if at least 40% of the population consistently wore respirators in public. Surgical masks can also lead to elimination, but requires compliance of at least 55%. Daily COVID-19 mortality could be eliminated in the US by June or July 2021 if 95% of the population opted for either respirators or surgical masks from the beginning of the third wave. We showed that the prospect of effective control or elimination of the pandemic using mask-based strategy is greatly enhanced if combined with other nonpharmaceutical interventions that significantly reduce the baseline community transmission. This study further emphasizes the role of human behavior towards masking on COVID-19 burden, and highlights the urgent need to maintain a healthy stockpile of highly-effective respiratory protection, particularly respirators, to be made available to the general public in times of future outbreaks or pandemics of respiratory diseases that inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden on the population.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Third Wave of COVID 19 in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 014-014
Author(s):  
Daniela Mariano Carvalho-Louro
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Hepatitis ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Liver Diseases ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Severe Liver ◽  
Treatment Progress ◽  
The Third ◽  
Advanced Stages ◽  
The Impact

Letter to EditorIn the practical clinical of Hepatology, the focus of daily life has been the treatment of patients with severe liver diseases, such as cirrhosis and liver cancer. Of all the liver diseases responsible for cirrhosis development, hepatitis C had made the most treatment progress. In a few years, it evolved from drugs with low efficacy and many side effects to highly safe medications with high cure rates.For hepatologists who manage critically ill patients with advanced stages of liver diseases, finding an effective Hepatitis C drug was a great encouragement, a huge motivation to continue believing in clinical research.

scholarly journals Preventing the Risk of Hospitalization for Respiratory Complications of Influenza among the Elderly: Is There a Better Influenza Vaccination Strategy? A Retrospective Population Study

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 344
Author(s):  
Silvia Cocchio ◽  
Tolinda Gallo ◽  
Stefania Del Zotto ◽  
Elena Clagnan ◽  
Andrea Iob ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Protective Role ◽  
The Body ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Respiratory Complications ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Influenza and its complications are an important public health concern, and vaccination remains the most effective prevention measure. However, the efficacy of vaccination depends on several variables, including the type of strategy adopted. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of different influenza vaccination strategies in preventing hospitalizations for influenza and its related respiratory complications. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on data routinely collected by the health services for six consecutive influenza seasons, considering the population aged 65 years or more at the time of their vaccination and living in northeastern Italy. Our analysis concerns 987,266 individuals vaccinated against influenza during the study period. The sample was a mean 78.0 ± 7.7 years old, and 5681 individuals (0.58%) were hospitalized for potentially influenza-related reasons. The hospitalization rate tended to increase over the years, not-significantly peaking in the 2016–2017 flu season (0.8%). Our main findings revealed that hospitalizations related to seasonal respiratory diseases were reduced as the use of the enhanced vaccine increased (R2 = 0.5234; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed the significantly greater protective role of the enhanced vaccine over the conventional vaccination strategy, with adjusted Odds Ratio (adj OR) = 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.66). A prior flu vaccination also had a protective role (adj OR: 0.752 (95% CI: 0.70–0.81)). Age, male sex, and H3N2 mismatch were directly associated with a higher risk of hospitalization for pneumonia. In the second part of our analysis, comparing MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated vaccine (MF59-TIV) with conventional vaccines, we considered 479,397 individuals, of which 3176 (0.66%) were admitted to a hospital. The results show that using the former vaccine reduced the risk of hospitalization by 33% (adj OR: 0.67 (95% CI: 0.59–0.75)). This study contributes to the body of evidence of a greater efficacy of enhanced vaccines, and MF59-adjuvanted TIV in particular, over conventional vaccination strategies in the elderly.

scholarly journals Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 434
Author(s):  
Beate Jahn ◽  
Gaby Sroczynski ◽  
Martin Bicher ◽  
Claire Rippinger ◽  
Nikolai Mühlberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Sterilizing Immunity ◽  
Vulnerable Persons

(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45–64 years), younger (15–44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available.

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