A Critical Assessment of How Leaning the Risk Assessment Process Induces Biased Judgement

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jefain Al-Hajri ◽  
Moray Kidd
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Research Strategy ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Lean Management ◽  
High Level

Over the years, the hydrocarbon industry has been riddled with accidents and incidences that can be partly blamed on “cost cutting” driven risk assessments and operational “lean management”. The epicentre of lean management is the elimination of waste for any industrial setup. However, when the processes are too lean accidents may ensue; putting the facilities, workers and the business at risk. Even though the hydrocarbon industry has reliable quantitative risk assessment techniques that may incorporate probabilistic measures to predict the likelihood of systems failure, there are times when “human call” is cardinal to decisions. Whenever human call is used in risk assessment there is a possibility of biasness in the judgement for risk partly due to the social-cultural influence on risk assessors. Therefore the aim of this research was to examine the level of social and cognitive bias in risk assessment of lean management processes at four oil and gas refinery plants in Kuwait. Using ethnomethodology as a research strategy it was possible to gather contextual primary information from the workers at the four refineries. Results from the research indicate that there is a high level of human involvement in risk assessment processes where social-cultural and psychological attributes of the risk assessors are evident. However, current risk assessment tools and processes do not engage risk assessors at a social-cultural level; hence ignoring the influence of biased judgement on risk scores. It can therefore be concluded that unlike technical risk assessment, there is poor incorporation of social-cultural and psychological initiatives in the processes leading to poor decisions that endanger hydrocarbon installations. It is recommended that the hydrocarbon industry in Kuwait strives to apply lean management principles by ensuring that there is detailed analysis of social and cognitive bias in the technical proceedings so as to simultaneously promote efficiency and safety at work.

Development of Risk Assessment Tools for Enterprises

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Yu. V. Trifonov ◽  
E. A. Fomina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Additional Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Complex Integral

Th e purpose of this article is to develop tools for assessing the risks of enterprises, used both to assess the current activities of enterprises and during the implementation of investment proj-ects. It is supposed to be used both as the main risk assessment tool, for example, for small and medium-sized enterprises, and as an additional tool, mainly for large enterprises, for making a preliminary decision on the feasibility of the project. Th e developed tools include a comprehen-sive risk assessment system, which provides a fundamental basis for calculations, and a soft ware product that signifi cantly optimizes the calculations of a complex integral risk indicator. Th e risk assessment system represents individual risks, grouped by 51 risk groups. Making calculations using the developed risk assessment tools involves assigning to each risk the characteristics of assessing the level of infl uence by selecting the characteristic most appropriate to the current level of risk. A standard version of indicators is proposed for each risk and characteristics cor-responding to "high", "elevated", "medium", "moderate" and "low" risk levels. Based on the results of the analysis, a complex integral risk indicator is formed, which is a quantitative risk assessment, which allows you to classify an enterprise into one of three groups: "eff ective enterprise / project", "enterprise / project requiring improvements", "ineffi cient enterprise". To optimize the calcula-tions, the authors have developed a soft ware product that allows for analysis with a signifi cant reduction in the time spent on its implementation. In general, the use of the developed risk as-sessment system and tools makes it possible to signifi cantly optimize the risk assessment process and reduce the costs of analisys.

scholarly journals An Animal Welfare Risk Assessment Process for Zoos

Animals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Sherwen ◽  
Lauren Hemsworth ◽  
Ngaio Beausoleil ◽  
Amanda Embury ◽  
David Mellor
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Welfare Assessment ◽  
Institutional Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Level ◽  
Institutional Priority

There is a growing interest and need for zoos to develop and implement welfare assessment tools that are practical to use and provide meaningful results that can inform management decisions. This paper presents a process that was developed to support this type of evidence-based management in zoo animal welfare. The process is configured to facilitate institutional risk assessment, using an adapted version of the Five Domains Model for animal welfare assessment. It is designed to systematically analyse information gathered from zoo personnel in order to highlight areas of welfare risk, as well as areas that are performing well and areas requiring further investigation. A trial was conducted on three zoos over three years. Results of the trial suggest the process developed is practical and effective in identifying areas of welfare risk in a wide range of species in a zoo setting. It represents a further step towards achieving high-level animal welfare in zoos by integrating animal welfare as an institutional priority. The more zoos that employ such strategies, the greater the ability of the sector to advance the welfare of the animals in their care.

Comparison of Human Health and Safety Loss due to Corroded Gas Pipeline Failure in Rural and Urban Areas: A Case Study in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 227 ◽  
pp. 221-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhamimi Mohd Hanafiah ◽  
Libriati Zardasti ◽  
Yahaya Nordin ◽  
Norhazilan Md Noor ◽  
Ahmad A. Safuan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
Consequence Assessment ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Pipeline Failure

Consequence assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment process. There are many types of consequences loss due to pipeline failure such as asset loss, environmental loss, production loss, and human health and safety loss (HHSL). This paper studies the comparison of HHSL between rural and urban areas due to pipeline failure subject to corrosion. The damage area of the explosion was calculated using Aloha software by considering the details of the selected sites such as atmospheric and topographical conditions. The HHSL was calculated using a mathematical equation of quantitative risk assessment in terms of the number of fatalities or injuries or both. The results of the assessments from rural and urban areas were then compared with one another to identify any significant dissimilarity. This study shows that there was a possibility to improve the decisive value of risk by implementing the proposed approach in consequence assessment in Malaysia.

Applying the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to Improve Safety Management of Oil and Gas Pipeline Stations in China

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxing Feng ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xiang ◽  
Guangming Jia ◽  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Yulei Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Oil Pipeline

The oil and gas pipeline companies in China are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges because of China’s increasing demand for oil and gas energy that is attributed to rapid economic and social development. Limitation of land resource and the fast urbanization lead to a determinate result that many pipelines have to go through or be adjacent to highly populated areas such as cities or towns. The increasing Chinese government regulation, and public concerns about industrial safety and environmental protection push the pipeline companies to enhance the safety, health and environmental protection management. In recent years, PetroChina Pipeline Company (PPC) pays a lot of attention and effort to improve employees and public safety around the pipeline facilities. A comprehensive, integrated HSE management system is continuously improved and effectively implemented in PPC. PPC conducts hazard identification, risk assessment, risk control and mitigation, risk monitoring. For the oil and gas stations in highly populated area or with numerous employees, PPC carries out quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to evaluate and manage the population risk. To make the assessment, “Guidelines for quantitative risk assessments” (purple book) published by Committee for the Prevention of Disasters of Netherlands is used along with a software package. The basic principles, process, and methods of QRA technology are introduced in this article. The process is to identify the station hazards, determinate the failure scenarios of the facilities, estimate the possibilities of leakage failures, calculate the consequences of failures and damages to population, demonstrate the individual risk and social risk, and evaluate whether the risk is acceptable. The process may involve the mathematical modeling of fluid and gas spill, dispersion, fire and explosion. One QRA case in an oil pipeline station is described in this article to illustrate the application process and discuss several key issues in the assessment. Using QRA technique, about 20 stations have been evaluated in PPC. On the basis of the results, managers have taken prevention and mitigation plans to control the risk. QRAs in the pipeline station can provide a quantitative basis and valuable reference for the company’s decision-making and land use planning. Also, QRA can play a role to make a better relationship between the pipeline companies and the local regulator and public. Finally, this article delivers limitations of QRA in Chinese pipeline stations and discusses issues of the solutions.

Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Eckhouse ◽  
Kristian Lum ◽  
Cynthia Conti-Cook ◽  
Julie Ciccolini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Final Layer ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Using Data

Scholars in several fields, including quantitative methodologists, legal scholars, and theoretically oriented criminologists, have launched robust debates about the fairness of quantitative risk assessment. As the Supreme Court considers addressing constitutional questions on the issue, we propose a framework for understanding the relationships among these debates: layers of bias. In the top layer, we identify challenges to fairness within the risk-assessment models themselves. We explain types of statistical fairness and the tradeoffs between them. The second layer covers biases embedded in data. Using data from a racially biased criminal justice system can lead to unmeasurable biases in both risk scores and outcome measures. The final layer engages conceptual problems with risk models: Is it fair to make criminal justice decisions about individuals based on groups? We show that each layer depends on the layers below it: Without assurances about the foundational layers, the fairness of the top layers is irrelevant.

The Use of Terrorism Risk Assessment Tools in Australia to Manage Residual Risk

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard Ripperger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Gathering ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Violent Extremism ◽  
Legislative Measures

There is growing concern in Australia about the residual risk of acts of terrorism or violent extremism posed by offenders after their release to the community from jail. A number of legislative measures have been passed that attempt to address this particular risk. Terrorism risk assessment tools are central to the effective operation of these new laws. Although existing tools demonstrate potential in assisting decision makers in identifying and managing persons that pose a risk of extremist violence there remain several challenges. These tools provide a useful guide to information gathering and analysis, however the assessment process is time consuming and resource intensive. Further, existing tools are currently given limited weight by the courts which impairs the effectiveness of legal measures designed to address residual risk.

Critical success factors for achieving environmental approvals

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 694
Author(s):  
Petrina Raitt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critical Success Factors ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Project Team ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Skill Sets ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, industry has experienced increased regulatory scrutiny and public interest in the environmental approvals of oil and gas activities, with common challenges across industry in areas such as impact and risk assessment, stakeholder consultation and risk and impact reduction measure application. Some critical success factors for a project team to meet its targets for environmental approval are: • early planning • access to information • use of appropriately skilled resources. Environmental approvals take time, and scheduling and planning for their preparation and submission should be high on the list of priorities when planning a project. Understanding the regulatory process and knowing what level of information is required at each point is critical. Information to support environmental approvals is available in various forms, including referencing previous approval documentation, reviewing scientific literature and leveraging the skills and experience of project team members. With a common regulator across all offshore petroleum approvals, having ready access to the best and most up-to-date information is critical to meet their expectations. The impact and risk assessment process that underpins the environmental approval is complex and requires a step-by-step approach to establish context (both technical and environmental), identify and assess impacts and propose controls, all while seeking input from stakeholders and monitoring performance. Each of these tasks requires different skill sets, and the key to success is in recognising this and responding by finding the right combination of competency and experience in project team resources. This paper discusses these critical success factors and explores in detail the skill sets that best support impact and risk assessment and subsequent environmental approval for oil and gas activities in Australia.

Arc flash: a risk assessment and mitigation strategy

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 737
Author(s):  
Danny Norton ◽  
Dale Wright
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Safe Work ◽  
Arc Flash

Oil and gas facility managers are well aware that attention to detail saves lives and supports business continuity and reputation. Those tasked with stewardship of electrical assets will be aware of the need to protect their employees from the hazard of electrical arc flash and that it should be at the forefront of safety thinking. Complacency and lack of duty of care with this real and possibly un-quantified hazard can lead to fatalities. The primary solution to arc flash consequences in older installations has been the implementation of safe work procedures and personal protective equipment. While still valid, these solutions are the least effective options in the hierarchy of controls. SKM have developed a practical risk mitigation strategy that considers the hazards of prospective arc flash energy together with the cumulative effect of switchboard age, design, capability and condition. The strategy also considers the range of potential mitigation controls available through the mechanism of substitution and engineering design that focuses on reducing: The likelihood of an arc flash incident occurring; The likelihood of personnel exposure; and, The energy released should an incident occur. A structured arc flash risk assessment process can provide the asset owner the opportunity to rank individual switchboards for likelihood, consequence and risk, and thus provide direction for engineered remediation and capital expenditure. SKM proposes the way in which arc flash risk can be assessed, how appropriate layered mitigation measures might be selected, and how an asset owner may approach the issue of arc flash hazard mitigation to economically and reliably protect its employees.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: A PROPOSED SCHEME

1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
H.B. Goff ◽  
R.K. Steedman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Environmental Risk Management ◽  
The Impact

Environmental risk assessment is becoming an increasingly important factor in the assessment process for new projects. The oil and gas industry is familiar with assessing and managing risks from a wide range of sources. In particular, risk assessment and management is fundamental to the evaluation and implementation of Safety cases. Risk assessment is essential in valuing exploration acreage. Various industry and government risk management standards and criteria have been developed for public and occupational health and safety.This paper examines the extension of these approaches to environmental risk management for the offshore oil and gas industry and proposes a conceptual management scheme.We regard risk as the probability of an event occurring and the consequences of that event. The risk is classified into four categories, namely:primary risk, which relates to the mechanical oilfield equipment;secondary risk, which relates to the natural transport processes. For example dispersion of oil in the water column and surrounding sea;the tertiary risk, which relates to the impact on some defined part of the physical, biological or social environment; andthe quaternary risk, which relates to the recovery of the environment from any impact.Generally the methods of quantitatively analysing primary and secondary risks are well known, while there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the tertiary and quaternary risk and they are at best qualitative only. An example of the method is applied to coral reef and other sensitive areas which may be at risk from oil spills.This risk management scheme should assist both operators and regulators in considering complex environmental problems which have an inherent uncertainty. It also proves a systematic approach on which sound environmental decisions can be taken and further research and analysis based. Perceived risk is recognised, but the management of this particular issue is not dealt with.

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