Stagnation in Decreasing Gastric Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Quito: Time Trend Analysis, 1985–2013

Background. Despite the significant global decline in mortality and incidence, gastric cancer (GC) remains a very common cause of illness and death in the Latin American region. This article seeks to describe, in depth, the time trend of incidence and mortality of GC in the city of Quito, from 1985 to 2013. Methods. Using data from the Quito Cancer Registry, annual sex-specific age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated. The analysis included all types of GC together, as well as by histological subtype. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to estimate the annual percentage change (EAPC). To evaluate cohort and period effects, Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling was performed. Results. Over time, incidence rate decreased from 30.4 to 18.8 cases in men and from 20.1 to 12.9 cases in women. The mortality rate decreased from 17.5 to 14.4 deaths in men and from 14.2 to 10.9 deaths in women. The incidence trend was composed of a first period (1986-1999) of strong decline (EAPC Men= -2.6, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -4.2, -0.9; EAPC Women= -3.2, 95% CI: -4.6, -1.9), followed by a less important decrease in men (EAPC= -0.8, 95% CI:-2.5, 0.9) and a slight increase in women (EAPC= 0.7, 95% CI: -1.4; 2.8). Mortality rates were constantly decreasing in both men (EAPC= -0.5, 95% CI: -0.9, -0.1) and women (EAPC= -0.9, 95% CI: -1.7, -0.1) throughout the period of analysis. Conclusions. The declines in incidence and mortality rates are stagnating. It is important to take measures to further reduce the high burden of GC.

Download Full-text

Trends in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in a brazilian city

BMC Research Notes ◽

10.1186/s13104-020-05411-9 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alex Rodrigues Moura ◽

Adriane Dórea Marques ◽

Mylena Santos Dantas ◽

Érika de Abreu Costa Brito ◽

Mariana do Rosário Souza ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Northeast Region ◽

Percent Change ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Incident Cases ◽

The City

Abstract Objectives This study was conducted to analyze the trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in the city of Aracaju, Sergipe State, Brazil, between 1996 and 2015 with Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0 and to identify the geographical distribution of CRC in the municipality. Results A total of 1322 cases of CRC and 467 CRC-related deaths during the study period were included. In total, 40% of the incident cases and 43% of the deaths occurred in men, while 60% of the incident cases and 57% of the deaths occurred in women. Males who were 20 to 44 years old had the most significant trend in growth. Among women, those in the group aged 45 to 64 years had the highest observed annual percent change (APC). In both sexes, mortality was stable. Regarding the geographic distribution, there were constant hotspots in the northeast region of the municipality. This study showed a significant increase in incidence, mainly in young men between 20 and 44 years of age, but stable mortality in Aracaju.

Download Full-text

Current and Future Burden of Prostate Cancer in Songkhla, Thailand: Analysis of Incidence and Mortality Trends From 1990 to 2030

Journal of Global Oncology ◽

10.1200/jgo.17.00128 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Christian S. Alvarez ◽

Shama Virani ◽

Rafael Meza ◽

Laura S. Rozek ◽

Hutcha Sriplung ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Public Health Burden ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Using Data

Purpose Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among men worldwide, and it poses a significant public health burden that has traditionally been limited mostly to developed countries. However, the burden of the disease is expected to increase, affecting developing countries, including Thailand. We undertook an analysis to investigate current and future trends of prostate cancer in the province of Songkhla, Thailand, using data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2013. Methods Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine trends in age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer and provide estimated annual percent change (EAPC) with 95% CIs. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to assess the effect of age, calendar year, and birth cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Three different methods (Joinpoint, Nordpred, and APC) were used to project trends from 2013 to 2030. Results Eight hundred fifty-five cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed from 1990 to 2013 in Songkhla, Thailand. The incidence rates of prostate cancer significantly increased since 1990 at an EAPC of 4.8% (95% CI, 3.6% to 5.9%). Similarly, mortality rates increased at an EAPC of 5.3% (95% CI, 3.4% to 7.2%). The APC models suggest that birth cohort is the most important factor driving the increased incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Future incidence and mortality of prostate cancer are projected to continue to increase, doubling the rates observed in 2013 by 2030. Conclusion It is critical to allocate resources to provide care for the men who will be affected by this increase in prostate cancer incidence in Songkhla, Thailand, and to design context-appropriate interventions to prevent its increasing burden.

Download Full-text

Trends in cerebrovascular diseases mortality in Serbia, 1997–2016: a nationwide descriptive study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024417 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. e024417 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Irena Ilic ◽

Milena Ilic ◽

Sandra Sipetic Grujicic

Keyword(s):

Treatment Guidelines ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Descriptive Study ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽

Period Effects

ObjectivesOver the last decades, mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) has decreased in many countries. The aim of this study was to assess the trends of CVDs mortality in Serbia.MethodsDescriptive epidemiological study. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) for CVDs mortality were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and estimate annual per cent changes with 95% CI. The age-period-cohort analysis has been used to describe variations in mortality.ResultsOver this 20-year period, there were 312 847 deaths from CVDs, with the overall average annual ASR of 148.4 per 100 000. The trend of ASRs from CVDs mortality in males in Serbia showed a significant joinpoint: rates insignificantly decreased from 1997 to 2005 by −0.8% per year (95% CI −1.7% to 0.2%) and thereafter rapidly decreased by −5.0% per year (95% CI −5.6% to −4.5%). A joinpoint for females was found in 2006: the mortality trend was first significantly decreasing by −1.0% per year (95% CI −1.9% to −0.0%) and then sharply falling down by −6.0% per year (95% CI −6.8% to −5.3%). Results of age-period-cohort analysis indicated that the relative risk for CVDs mortality showed statistically significant (p<0.05) cohort and period effects, as well as the net drift and local drifts in Serbian population. The trends in mortality for all subtypes of CVDs were similar in both sexes: trends significantly decreased for most subtypes, with the exception of a significant increase for cerebral infarction.ConclusionsAfter a decade of increase, CVDs mortality rates are declining in last decade in Serbia. However, mortality rates from CVDs remain exceedingly high in Serbia. Differences in mortality trends of the stroke subtypes should be taken into account in the creation of both prevention and treatment guidelines.

Download Full-text

Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Colorectal Cancer in a Brazilian City

10.21203/rs.3.rs-94961/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alex Rodrigues Moura ◽

Adriane Dorea Marques ◽

Mylena Santos Dantas ◽

Érika Abreu Costa Brito ◽

Mariana Rosário Souza ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Age Group ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Growth Trend ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Percent Change ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Incident Cases ◽

The City ◽

Death Cases

Abstract Objectives: This study was conducted to analyse the trends in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the city of Aracaju, Sergipe State, Brazil, between 1996 and 2015 through statistical analysis using the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0. and to identify its geographical distribution in the municipality. Results: A total of 1,322 cases and 467 deaths of CRC over the study period were included. Men´s incident cases comprised 40% of the sample, and women´s 60%. The death cases were 43% for men and 57% for women. Among the 20 – 44 year age group, for males, there was a highest significant growth trend. For women, the growth trend, with the Annual Percent Change (APC) observed, was the 45 and 64 years age group. Regarding mortality both genders, trends were stable. Regarding geographic distribution, there was a constancy of hotpoints in the northeast region of the municipality. This study showed the increasing in incidence mainly the young men between 20 to 44 years, with significantly statistical, but with mortality stability in Aracaju.

Download Full-text

Covid-19 in Latin America countries: Course of the pandemic and the different responses towards control

10.21203/rs.3.rs-56504/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Julia Moreira Pescarini ◽

Ismael H Silveira ◽

Jaime A Souza-Filho ◽

Rosana Aquino ◽

Mauricio L Barreto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Latin America ◽

Social Mobility ◽

Latin American ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Healthcare Systems ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Social Distancing ◽

First Case ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

The Social

Abstract Background: The emergence of COVID-19 in Latin America occurred within a troubled political, economic and social context, with growing trends of poverty and social inequality challenging already overburdened and underfinanced local healthcare systems. In the absence of a vaccine or of any treatment for COVID-19, public health measures such as social distancing had to be adopted. The objective of this paper is to describe the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin American countries and to summarize the social distancing measures implemented in each one of these countries, discussing the changes that took place in the social mobility of the populations and their potential effects on the course of the epidemic up to June 2020. Results: Brazil has the highest cumulative number of cases and deaths; however, cumulative incidence rates are higher in Peru and Chile, while the highest cumulative mortality rates are in Ecuador, Peru and Brazil. Some countries implemented social distancing measures before the first case was registered, culminating in lockdown in eight countries before detection of the 100th case. The measures that appear to have had the greatest impact in reducing mobility include, in addition to lockdown, the closure of schools and prohibition of events. In general, the countries that implemented social distancing measures earlier and where the reduction in social mobility was greatest also recorded lower incidence and mortality rates. Brazil and Mexico failed to adopt lockdown and the number of cases of the disease continues to grow. Conclusions: As occurred in other continents, control of the COVID-19 pandemic was better in countries that were faster in adopting more restrictive measures. Nevertheless, this equation does not appear to guarantee a positive outcome in all settings, possibly due to the considerable social inequalities and chronic deficiencies of the healthcare systems, with the scenario being even more complex in view of the recurring political crises and the negationist view of some national leaders. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and exposes these contradictions. Further studies are required to gain a greater understanding and generate lessons on how to manage such a complex crisis.

Download Full-text

High Proportion of Potential Candidates for Immunotherapy in a Chilean Cohort of Gastric Cancer Patients: Results of the FORCE1 Study

Cancers ◽

10.3390/cancers11091275 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1275 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Miguel Cordova-Delgado ◽

Mauricio P. Pinto ◽

Ignacio N. Retamal ◽

Matías Muñoz-Medel ◽

María Loreto Bravo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gastric Cancer ◽

South America ◽

Clinical Data ◽

Inverse Correlation ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Molecular Profile ◽

Barr Virus ◽

Geographical Variations ◽

Mutational Status ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Gastric cancer (GC) is a heterogeneous disease. This heterogeneity applies not only to morphological and phenotypic features but also to geographical variations in incidence and mortality rates. As Chile has one of the highest mortality rates within South America, we sought to define a molecular profile of Chilean GCs (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03158571/(FORCE1)). Solid tumor samples and clinical data were obtained from 224 patients, with subsets analyzed by tissue microarray (TMA; n = 90) and next generation sequencing (NGS; n = 101). Most demographic and clinical data were in line with previous reports. TMA data indicated that 60% of patients displayed potentially actionable alterations. Furthermore, 20.5% were categorized as having a high tumor mutational burden, and 13% possessed micro-satellite instability (MSI). Results also confirmed previous studies reporting high Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) positivity (13%) in Chilean-derived GC samples suggesting a high proportion of patients could benefit from immunotherapy. As expected, TP53 and PIK3CA were the most frequently altered genes. However, NGS demonstrated the presence of TP53, NRAS, and BRAF variants previously unreported in current GC databases. Finally, using the Kendall method, we report a significant correlation between EBV+ status and programmed death ligand-1 (PDL1)+ and an inverse correlation between p53 mutational status and MSI. Our results suggest that in this Chilean cohort, a high proportion of patients are potential candidates for immunotherapy treatment. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in South America to assess the prevalence of actionable targets and to examine a molecular profile of GC patients.

Download Full-text

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis

BMC Pulmonary Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12890-021-01740-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Deepak Dhamnetiya ◽

Priyanka Patel ◽

Ravi Prakash Jha ◽

Neha Shri ◽

Mayank Singh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Effect ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Control Programme ◽

Period Effect ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Male And Female ◽

Tuberculosis Control Programme ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

National Tuberculosis

Abstract Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Download Full-text

Cancer incidence, mortality and survival trends in Canada, 1970–2007

Chronic Diseases and Injuries in Canada ◽

10.24095/hpcdp.33.2.03 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

pp. 69-80 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

L Kachuri ◽

P De ◽

LF Ellison ◽

R Semenciw ◽

Keyword(s):

Cancer Survival ◽

Cancer Control ◽

Relative Survival ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Using Data ◽

National Databases

Introduction Monitoring cancer trends can help evaluate progress in cancer control while reinforcing prevention activities. This analysis examines long-term trends for selected cancers in Canada using data from national databases. Methods Annual changes in trends for age-standardized incidence and mortality rates between 1970 and 2007 were examined by sex for 1) all cancers combined, 2) the four most common cancers (prostate, breast, lung, colorectal) and 3) cancers that demonstrate the most recent notable changes in trend. Five-year relative survival for 1992–2007 was also calculated. Results Incidence rates for all primary cancer cases combined increased 0.9% per year in males and 0.8% per year in females over the study period, with varying degrees of increase for melanoma, thyroid, liver, prostate, kidney, colorectal, lung, breast, and bladder cancers and decrease for larynx, oral, stomach and cervical cancers. Mortality rates were characterized by significant declines for all cancers combined and for most cancers examined except for melanoma and female lung cancer. The largest improvements in cancer survival were for prostate, liver, colorectal and kidney cancers. While the overall trends in mortality rates and survival point to notable successes in cancer control, the increasing trend in incidence rates for some cancers emphasize the need for continued efforts in prevention.

Download Full-text

Gender Disparity in Risk Factors of COVID-19 Mortality Rate

10.21203/rs.3.rs-101850/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Uma Ranjan ◽

Anush Kini ◽

Harish P B ◽

Monica Anand

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Family Health ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Gender Disparity ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

Indian States ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Using Data

Abstract Incidence and mortality rates due to COVID-19 have varied widely in different parts of the world and placed a huge strain on hospital resources. Understanding the underlying reasons behind such variation is crucial to developing population-specific or even individual-specific management strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of incidence and mortality rates from data collected over a cumulative period of approximately 6.5 months from February to August 2020 across 411 districts of India, totalling over 2 million individuals. We identify the health factors which have both positive as well as negative correlates with high mortality rates, using data obtained from district-wise aggregated COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and health data obtained from National Family Health Survey (NFHS). To obtain robust indicators, we apply both machine learning techniques as well as classical statistical methods and show that the same factors are identified by both methods. We also identify positive and negative correlates at multiple population scales by dividing the cohort into sub-cohorts formed from two Indian states which were further segregated by gender. We show that there is a disparity of risk factors among males and females. While obesity is the highest risk factor for men, anaemia is the highest risk factor for women. Hence, to better manage the health of a specific group of people, it is important to consider gender-wise heterogeneity in health risk factors which could contribute to differing vulnerabilities

Download Full-text

Trends in hospital admissions and mortality rates for asthma in Ecuador: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 2000 to 2018

BMJ Open Respiratory Research ◽

10.1136/bmjresp-2020-000773 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. e000773

Author(s):

Angelita Cabrera ◽

Alejandro Rodriguez ◽

Natalia Romero-Sandoval ◽

Sergio Barba ◽

Philip J Cooper

Keyword(s):

Latin America ◽

Latin American ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Published Data ◽

Important Public Health Problem ◽

Entire Study ◽

Latin American Region

BackgroundAlthough asthma has emerged as an important public health problem over recent decades in Latin America, there are limited published data on national hospital admission and mortality rates for asthma from countries in the region.ObjectiveTo analyse trends in asthma hospitalisation and mortality rates in Ecuador over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018.MethodsHospital discharge and death certificates listing asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes (J45 and J46), were used to analyse time trends in rates of hospital admissions and mortality for asthma. The data were obtained from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census. Crude and age-standardised rates were estimated for the entire population. Additionally, specific rates by sex, age and region were estimated. We used joinpoint analysis to identify national trends.ResultDuring 2000–2018, a total of 58 250 hospitalisations and 1328 deaths due to asthma were identified. The average annual rates for hospitalisation and mortality attributed to asthma were estimated to be 21 (95% CI 19.3 to 22.8) and 5.2 (95% CI 4.4 to 6.0) per 100 000 population, respectively, over this period. Asthma hospital admissions decreased from 28 to 13.7 per 100 000 population between 2000 and 2018, and asthma mortality decreased from 0.8 to 0.3 per 100 000 population over the same period. Based on jointpoint analysis, two temporal trends were identified for hospital admissions. Between 2000 and 2011, hospital admissions decreased 0.8% per year and between 2011 and 2018 decreased 6.6% per year (p<0.05). On average, hospitalisation rates decreased 3.1% per year (p<0.05) over the entire study period. Mortality rate decreased 5.6% per year (p<0.05) over the 19-year period. Hospitalisation rates were higher among females, those aged 5 to 19 years and those living in the Coast region.ConclusionsOur analysis shows a temporal trend of reduction in rates of hospitalisations and deaths attributed to asthma between 2000 and 2018 in Ecuador, consistent with similar trends elsewhere in the Latin American region. Health registration systems in Latin America need to be improved to provide reliable data for future between and within country comparisons of trends in asthma hospitalisations and deaths.

Download Full-text